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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #221
  • Apr 9, 2021 12:35am Apr 9, 2021 12:35am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} I watched this video. If it's you in the video Mingary, well, sorry. A person like this, as he is right now, SHOULD NOT be trading AT ALL. I keep looking at the areas of his trade screen and I feel like I'm going to have an epileptic fit. It's too much by at least 1000%. He looks like he's going to start crying or have a fit himself. I'm not sure "why" you Mingary posted this, but if I traded this way back in the 80's when I started I'd be DEAD. All of "that" on his screen area is for someone who doesn't know what they're doing and is 'hoping'...
It's not me in the video.
IMO the video exemplifies the "brutal truth of day trading".
Watching some of his other videos before the crash is like watching a train wreck about to happen.
What is the truth here ? At its most basic it's simply a run up in the account (sometime quite extended) invariably followed by a crash.
Knowing that fact alone that keep a day trader in the game longer than expected. Once a trader has learned everything else and can show some consistency, IMO this is the last lesson to learn.
  • #222
  • Apr 9, 2021 12:56am Apr 9, 2021 12:56am
To trade properly, a person needs to recognize all the areas of development they need to pay attention to. Although becoming somewhat consistent is part of it, I stand by my observations of this person and say that he should not be trading until he addresses the real issues. Being consistent re: an account equity curve etc, is not representative of what is happening.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #223
  • Apr 9, 2021 12:58am Apr 9, 2021 12:58am
Many a time this is how it looks to me with people .....


Inserted Video



Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #224
  • Apr 9, 2021 4:12am Apr 9, 2021 4:12am
Quoting Mingary
No matter what "poison" you choose (stocks, forex, futures, penny stocks ... etc) The day trading party will stop. Enjoy it while it lasts and trade small. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUKj6E-mZXU&t=97s
Mingary

The market goes up or down, you push the buy button when it goes up and you push the sell button when it goes down.

Now what's this poison shit you are on about - all markets are the same.

VISION
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #225
  • Edited 10:49am Apr 9, 2021 4:13am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting Mingary
No matter what "poison" you choose (stocks, forex, futures, penny stocks ... etc) The day trading party will stop. Enjoy it while it lasts and trade small. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUKj6E-mZXU&t=97s
"This strategy will screw you if you follow it or if you don't follow it ". (4.44)

It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #226
  • Apr 9, 2021 4:25am Apr 9, 2021 4:25am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Mingary The market goes up or down, you push the buy button when it goes up and you push the sell button when it goes down. Now what's this poison shit you are on about - all markets are the same. VISION
Yes, all markets are the same ...
You push the buy button and the price goes down
You push the sell button and the price goes up
(:
  • #227
  • Apr 9, 2021 4:56am Apr 9, 2021 4:56am
Most traders have very little understanding of probability.

Once you learn this, imo is the key to really getting near the point of consistent profits in the market.
Love to talk on Discord: DividendGamer#1324
  • #228
  • Apr 9, 2021 5:03am Apr 9, 2021 5:03am
I have very little understanding of myself. That is where I wish to improve for now. Seems like guessing which way the market goes is child's play in contrast. I think there are more than enough clues on the chart, whatever way you wish to look at it. But I get in my own way more often that not.
Get the Lag out
  • #229
  • Apr 9, 2021 7:19am Apr 9, 2021 7:19am
Quoting Varkeer
Most traders have very little understanding of probability. Once you learn this, imo is the key to really getting near the point of consistent profits in the market.
Right. Charts are already history. No chart, no indicator and no magical support/resistance lines or channels lines a lot of people love to paint on charts - nothing that can guarantee info about the future. So all reduces on patterns statistics (probabilities). If a pattern with SL30 and TP30 worked 51% positive - ok you have a positive outcome in long term. You can use that pattern (pattern can be made of lines - ok. But at least 200 deals with lines). Is that the best pattern? No... there exist patterns that work with 60% probability for the same SL/TP ratio.

How to find patterns? In theory, you need about 700 deals to see if a pattern is working. Do manual on demo account forward testing 700 deals with your idea of entering/exit pattern. Then see results and decide. For now, I use 200 deals... because I use rare patterns. Which appears no more than 20 times per year. Rare conditions. Extremes.

Or you can manually do backward testing - analyze historical charts and make Excel with statistics.

Or you can program an EA which will do that for you - find out the best patterns (for entry and for exit - SL/TP can be based on pattern too - not fixed SL/TP).

Will pattern you found work in future? Maybe - this is not a guarantee. Therefore you need 100 patterns running at once. Some win, some lose. Never bet on 1 horse or never put all egs in 1 basket. Never hope that 1 particular strategy will make you profitable. Even 10 strategies are not enough. How many strategies you can trade manually at the same time?

If you trade manual and make a decision about entry/exit based on what you see on charts... well... I "love" those lines painters... full FF with lines on charts... you know EA can "draw lines" also. It is possible to check how those "lines" worked in long run. People draw lines on H1 chart and make decisions... they feel "confident" about entry when it aligns with lines (support/resistance). funny... thats why we do not see consistent results.

then I saw strategies based on astralogy. You know.. thats better than lines painters. Because astralogy strategies use probabilities. They measure historical perfomance. And make bet. You can use lines - thats ok. But without probabilities it is pure luck.

Is probabilities luck? no. it is mathematic. insurance businesses rely on probabilities. you can even calculate any square of any figure with probabilities with 99.99999% precision.
  • #230
  • Edited Apr 10, 2021 6:53am Apr 9, 2021 10:15am | Edited Apr 10, 2021 6:53am
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} Hi HeyYou, I wish to share my subjective opinion: If the market is rational then there is no market for fx & commodities, for in a hawkish market every speculator would be buying and none will be selling. After all, it's a zero-sum game. Only because the market is irrational then we can exploit the human anomalies. One of the anomalies I wish to share is: The trend has been established before the news is published, and in bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news exaggerated, and vice versa. - Reminiscence Of A Stock Operator Meaning,...
if several billionaires are buying, price will almost certainly go up. simple. it would be suicidal to trade against them.

same thing when many many small retailers decide to buy together..

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unity is strenght.
  • #231
  • Apr 9, 2021 11:09am Apr 9, 2021 11:09am
Quoting ZeroLag
I have very little understanding of myself. That is where I wish to improve for now. Seems like guessing which way the market goes is child's play in contrast. I think there are more than enough clues on the chart, whatever way you wish to look at it. But I get in my own way more often that not.
Personally I'd spend all your time researching something concrete and stop trading. It's not hard to trade when you have a series of traffic lights in place, otherwise you'll end up in a multi-year battle of you vs the markets, and it doesn't have to be like that at all. And it always looks a piece of piss in hindsight, that again is an illusion.

As someone - gravitron? Apologies if someone else said - if you must trade, drop your lot size down to 0.01 lots and focus on method method method. The idea it's just personal psychology holding you back is a broker's trick to part you from your cash. It's not. It's cast iron methodology.
  • #232
  • Apr 9, 2021 5:17pm Apr 9, 2021 5:17pm
Quoting ryuryu
On other hand I'm sure that it is possible to have 1% daily. And such a traders do exist. But they are not selling courses and not teaching others. That's why there are no "stories of success" around.
These people exist. Plenty of professional traders do this. The guy who taught me was a trader from the 80s-00s before he died of a sudden heart attack.
Love to talk on Discord: DividendGamer#1324
  • #233
  • Apr 9, 2021 9:19pm Apr 9, 2021 9:19pm
You cannot trade without a functioning brain and you cannot trade without a functioning method. The essence of any trading, big or small.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #234
  • Apr 9, 2021 9:38pm Apr 9, 2021 9:38pm
Quoting Mingary
No matter what "poison" you choose (stocks, forex, futures, penny stocks ... etc) The day trading party will stop. Enjoy it while it lasts and trade small. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUKj6E-mZXU&t=97s
Come on Ming, this is a bad video.

The guy sold a bull bar, and then threw good money after bad. It never occurred to him that he was looking at a parabolic move on an attempt to close the gap.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #235
  • Apr 10, 2021 6:51am Apr 10, 2021 6:51am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Come on Ming, this is a bad video. The guy sold a bull bar, and then threw good money after bad. It never occurred to him that he was looking at a parabolic move on an attempt to close the gap.
His strategy allowed him to get screwed whether he followed it or not.
Emotional wreck, Fear & Greed.
Over confidence with a non existent strategy.

Has Balls to put up this video though. Hope he learns from it.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #236
  • Apr 10, 2021 5:56pm Apr 10, 2021 5:56pm
It doesn't seem to me like he has learned the lessons of his mistakes. I fear he has many more large losses ahead of him. Some simple rules to keep in mind are: Never average down. Never throw good money after bad. As mentioned above, gaps usually fill. If a loss affects you emotionally, you are trading too large of a position. His strategy has him entering against price action and hoping for a reversal. Hope is not a strategy. What he is doing is really no different than a martingale, which is a statistically guaranteed loser. I doubt he would be willing to do the things that are needed to correct his trading. I see a lot of this in inexperienced traders. Sometimes they just don't have a clue as to how hard this is to do successfully. Of course it's possible, but it's not like solving a Rubik's cube hard. It's a whole other level of hard. It's more like neurosurgery hard. Be careful out there. - G
  • #237
  • Apr 11, 2021 1:35am Apr 11, 2021 1:35am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Come on Ming, this is a bad video. The guy sold a bull bar, and then threw good money after bad. It never occurred to him that he was looking at a parabolic move on an attempt to close the gap.
"The guy sold a bull bar," hindsight is always 20/20
But what he did wrong is not the issue... he thought he was following his strategy that allowed him to grow his account over several months.
Dilligently applying rules that made money.

This is the perfect video to illustrate "The brutal truth of day trading"
1) find a strategy that works (no small task)
2) apply the rules and dilligently grow the account
3) Sooner or later the rules stop working and lose a substancial amount.
.....
4) start over with new rules ...
  • #238
  • Apr 11, 2021 2:11am Apr 11, 2021 2:11am
Quoting Varkeer
Most traders have very little understanding of probability. Once you learn this, imo is the key to really getting near the point of consistent profits in the market.
Hi Varkeer,
would you like sharing your strategy or some simple tips to be consistent
  • #239
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:42am Apr 11, 2021 6:42am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "The guy sold a bull bar," hindsight is always 20/20 But what he did wrong is not the issue... he thought he was following his strategy that allowed him to grow his account over several months. Dilligently applying rules that made money. This is the perfect video to illustrate "The brutal truth of day trading" 1) find a strategy that works (no small task) 2) apply the rules and dilligently grow the account 3) Sooner or later the rules stop working and lose a substancial amount. ..... 4) start over with new rules ...
Regardless of the strategy, if a trader makes sure that his winners are bigger than his losers, he will make money over a long enough time horizon. Where was his target? His stops? He admits that he has emotional issues. Why did he add to a loser? What was his max position size if he was scaling in?

This is basic stuff.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #240
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:54am Apr 11, 2021 6:54am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "The guy sold a bull bar," hindsight is always 20/20 But what he did wrong is not the issue... he thought he was following his strategy that allowed him to grow his account over several months. Dilligently applying rules that made money. This is the perfect video to illustrate "The brutal truth of day trading" 1) find a strategy that works (no small task) 2) apply the rules and dilligently grow the account 3) Sooner or later the rules stop working and lose a substancial amount. ..... 4) start over with new rules ...
Some rules never change.

If Buyers are absorbed by a large passive selling order and price refuses to go higher - better start looking to sell.

Like gravity, its just the laws of supply and demand.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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