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The truth about trading 161 replies

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The brutal truth of day trading

Quoting jmn5611
Regarding automated trading....LTCM. They ran algos, then a black swan got them and there was no algo to get them out of it. It is impossible to account for every variable, therefore, this can and will eventually kill every EA. The question comes up as to whether or not a human, can "sense" something wrong, like when correlations begin to break down. This happened in 2000 and again in 2008. @Rick M., I think this is the wall you hit. Speculation of course. @ryugu, can your EA's respond to a black swan and initiate a portfolio stop?
Hi jmn5611

Yes, to be exact it was the Flash crash of 2019 that wiped out my EA portfolio. In seven minutes, price moved something like 8 percent for AUD & JPY pairs - the EA's were helpless and no coding could have save them.
Most Algo only prop firms now only run EA's short term, whether that's for a few hours a day or a few days a week.
No serious money trades Algo's long term.

Luckily I also manually trade
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi jmn5611 Yes, to be exact it was the Flash crash of 2019 that wiped out my EA portfolio. In seven minutes, price moved something like 8 percent for AUD & JPY pairs - the EA's were helpless and no coding could have save them. Most Algo only prop firms now only run EA's short term, whether that's for a few hours a day or a few days a week. No serious money trades Algo's long term. Luckily I also manually trade
manual trading is not safe when flash-crash too. No stop loss working then...

therefore diversify with n accounts your capital. use brokers/regulations where you are protected from negative account balance. when you open 1 deal - all your money on that account is at 100% risk. Shit happens... flash-crashes are quite frequent disasters. Less impact on EURUSD...
Does day trading lower the risk of flash crashes to a participant. I mean in theory, less time in the market, less risk. Perhaps there are some advantages to day trading. Maybe its not as bad as its made out to be. I have my heart set on trading short term. So I am biased I guess.
Get the Lag out
Quoting mtako
problem is... you base it all on statistics that throw all individuals, gamblers, students, etc. in the same basket as "traders". In my experience, 100% of daytraders make a living, 100%. The rest are all sorts of individuals, victims of gambling addiction, of holy grail and fake broker schemes, and more atrocities, yes atrocities. Lives are broken. But you make a mistake when lumping them all with traders, and an even stranger mistake in using it to conclude that the market and day trading is in any way similar to what you have strangely concluded...
Hi mtako

I am a day trader - I don't use patterns, follow trends, don't watch price, don't follow news, don't care if its the London session or a quiet period during the Asia session.
I only watch for liquidity imbalances at the end of expansion - then follow the move.
Its all over in a couple of minutes.


Why wait a week
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi mtako I am a day trader - I don't use patterns, follow trends, don't watch price, don't follow news, don't care if its the London session or a quiet period during the Asia session. I only watch for liquidity imbalances at the end of expansion - then follow the move. Its all over in a couple of minutes. Why wait a week

I know all to well. And it s a breath of fresh air to see you pop in here RickM. Cheers !
Quoting tommydoginti
I think this discussion shows the brutal truth of FF - Long time FF members, not necessary profitable traders, dominating the forum (likely also content management). Admins should treat this problem seriously as this turns the vibe of the site to the worse side of it, and objectively here is losing popularity in the last couple years. We agree to disagree here. There is no right or wrong to trade, and unfortunately all of us including me are not correct in talking statistics because of lack of information. Opinion is all I can share and thankfully...
A man is subjected to his own convictions -that is, either through his studies & experience or tips from Mr. IFlip$10To$10KInOneWeek- , this is the very reason we argue about things that goes no where. A Ranging Conversation.


A man is blinded by his own beliefs; fooled by his own mind; exaggerating what resonates and denying what interferes, for that is how the mind operates.
A Trending Behavior.


I do not wish to argue any further about my due diligence, for a man needs to do his own.


Regards,
R.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
Quoting rover99x
{quote} But he's a salesman, he makes his money selling his courses to newbies, not daytrading!! Selling daytrading courses is a huge business, selling the dream of earning millions from just a few hours a day
The issue was about making profit daytrading in the long run.. he is showing day trading live on his youtube account for over 4 years now and is profitable .. Him selling courses is not what is being discussed..
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} You don't know what you are talking about.. he is showing day trading live on his youtube account. The issue was about making profit daytrading in the long run.. which he is doing now for 4 or more years..

Don t take it that way.. He like many are just used to finding crooks. Salesmen posting as traders.... Because they seem to be prevalent, and they clearly are in the social space. But does not mean they all are !

But there are some true traders that are salesmen also, or just plainly sharing their trades for a commission and/or subscription, and why would that make them no less of good traders ?

Ive never been a good salesman, but did sell signals way back, and some months the returns were even greater than my own earnings. And it was all automatic in the end. So it was well worth it, for me.

BUT, and this is why this thread is important to me, the "bad apples" multiplied, offering the impossible to the desperate, ignorant, or greedy....

I only stopped when too many bad followers piled up, blinded by greed, disregarding the necessary money management rules adapted to each strat.
the problem with systematic trading is that there's a lot of competition going on... discretionary trading is pure guessing and long term "active" investors are practically hopeless.

read here:
https://www.nutmeg.com/nutmegonomics...stock-picking/


trading is just an all or nothing bet, a good time waster to me... nothing else.

I used to treat it like a business but it's not!!
spend the money guys... ok sorry, last post.
Quoting HeyYou
Michael Marcus turned $50,000 into $50 million or something like that using simple systems but we are 2021 now... we have big data, AI... how do you expect to win ?
Hi HeyYou

Do you want me to give you a answer.

Market EURUSD

Broker time 16.52 - Volume on average 1 minute doubles as a breakout traders enter long.
16.53 - Volume doubles again as all breakout EA's are trigged worldwide.
16.54 - Volume increases again by 50% over the last candle bringing a new high.
16.55.30 - Banker enters short, not a big player however as size only moderate. My trade when short 16.55.45.
16.56 - Now is a good time to enter short if you haven't done so already.
16.59.48 - 90% of all long orders within spread distance worldwide are removed from the market in a 4 second move
17.00 - Massive Imbalance of the order book. EA has done its job.

TAKE PROFIT - GO LONG

Its possible to see EA's trade after their actions have resulted in imbalance of the market about 10 seconds later.
Its our job to try and interpret what's just happened and then attempt to profit from that knowledge.

But it is possible to see the EA's in action just after they have executed their code
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi HeyYou Do you want me to give you a answer. Market EURUSD Broker time 16.52 - Volume on average 1 minute doubles as a breakout traders enter long. 16.53 - Volume doubles again as all breakout EA's are trigged worldwide. 16.54 - Volume increases again by 50% over the last candle bringing a new high. 16.55.30 - Banker enters short, not a big player however as size only moderate. My trade when short 16.55.45. 16.56 - Now is a good time to enter short if you haven't done so already. 16.59.48 - 90% of all long orders within spread distance...
the market is irrational AF IMO... it does not care about the economy. e.g. Buffett says buy and price goes up... end of the story.
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} the market is irrational AF IMO... it does not care about the economy. e.g. Buffett says buy and price goes up... end of the story.
You don’t get it.
Trade the liquidity when you see an imbalance, do not trade price or news or some stupid pattern.

The trading edge comes from interpreting market data in real time - That is the relationship between Bids and Asks.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} You don’t get it. Trade the liquidity when you see an imbalance, do not trade price or news or some stupid pattern. The trading edge comes from interpreting market data in real time - That is the relationship between Bids and Asks.
I get it rick, the liquidity..

I prefer to follow the big players. when people like Bill Ackman says "buy", I buy, in the middle of a pandemic... that's how I made money.
My suggestion to most people would be to go away and do a thinking test. Not an IQ test or critical thinking test but a thinking test. This kind of test will help uncover the real life deficiencies in your mind's functionality. Personally I find it both hilarious AND troubling that people have all kinds of opinions etc but last time I checked, up is still up and down is still down. Day trading is for a person who can understand what other people can't bothered to understand. Since the day trading skills are transferable then the person can shift from DT to a more comfortable setup.

"I really don't know why these things are so hard to understand, looking at it from a basic thinking standpoint."

And this is the problem. All these people with lovely opinions but unless you've actually done it and see that drinking 10 cups of coffee each day is very unhealthy, then you probably have a warped idea of what DT really is.

Opinions are not real. What is real is real. So you have to ask yourself, who cares what your opinion is?

To me, people who rely very heavily on their opinions are similar to rabid dogs.... rather reactive and limited in their capable observation.

So if you want to learn properly, just use a DT approach for as long as it takes to see what you need to see so it makes sense to you. To a certain extent, the markets are just like russian nesting dolls.


Peter
Trading is strangely simple when you just stop & think about it.
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I get it rick, the liquidity.. I prefer to follow the big players. when people like Bill Ackman says "buy", I buy, in the middle of a pandemic... that's how I made money.


...... Like this? .....


Attached Image
Trading is strangely simple when you just stop & think about it.
If you want brutal truth about other things that relate directly and indirectly to DT .....

There are approx. 7.674 billion (2019) people in the world and so, each person has an opinion. That is 7.674 billion opinions. How would anything get done with so many potentially differing opinions? This is why from ancient times, a council or group of representatives were chosen or elected to speak for the people (Today - 7.674 billion (2019)). But trading doesn't work this way. It's in direct contrast to how people have been shown and told to think. What works for you standing in the supermarket aisle, trying to decide what flavor ice cream to buy, does NOT work in this thing called trading.

So check you thinking. Enough with opinions and over-emphasis on scientific method and realize that it's all encompassing.

People don't WANT the brutal truth. Not really, not most of you. Most people cannot even handle 'differing opinions' let alone handle proper interpretation and extraction of what is said or shown ... so how you going to deal with the impartial truth that presents itself?

Fools opinionate because they cannot think anymore. Trading in any form, shows and proves your thinking.

No I don't "think" or "know" I'm right. The markets prove what is real and true everyday, in the context of them and you. What do YOU prove everyday?

So who cares about your opinion. Utilized properly, an opinion should lead to an investigation NOT to 'soda can trading'.

Peter
Trading is strangely simple when you just stop & think about it.
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} the market is irrational AF IMO... it does not care about the economy. e.g. Buffett says buy and price goes up... end of the story.
Hi HeyYou,

I wish to share my subjective opinion:

If the market is rational then there is no market for fx & commodities, for in a hawkish market every speculator would be buying and none will be selling.
After all, it's a zero-sum game.

Only because the market is irrational then we can exploit the human anomalies.
One of the anomalies I wish to share is:

The trend has been established before the news is published, and in bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news exaggerated, and vice versa. - Reminiscence Of A Stock Operator

Meaning, on a bull market, bear news are ignored and bull news are exaggerated. There goes ignorance & greed.
This is particularly true to the human nature.
You can experiment it with yourself, we are inclined to only hear what we want to hear and certainly ignore everything else that interferes with our convictions.

This can be seen in the chart as a Trending Graphic.

If you watched the Big Short you'll understand what I mean by:
in bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news exaggerated, and vice versa.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
No matter what "poison" you choose (stocks, forex, futures, penny stocks ... etc)
The day trading party will stop.
Enjoy it while it lasts and trade small.

Inserted Video
Quoting Mingary
No matter what "poison" you choose (stocks, forex, futures, penny stocks ... etc) The day trading party will stop. Enjoy it while it lasts and trade small. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUKj6E-mZXU&t=97s


I watched this video. If it's you in the video Mingary, well, sorry. A person like this, as he is right now, SHOULD NOT be trading AT ALL. I keep looking at the areas of his trade screen and I feel like I'm going to have an epileptic fit. It's too much by at least 1000%. He looks like he's going to start crying or have a fit himself. I'm not sure "why" you Mingary posted this, but if I traded this way back in the 80's when I started I'd be DEAD. All of "that" on his screen area is for someone who doesn't know what they're doing and is 'hoping' something will save them or tell them what to do. I trade options and stocks. Have done for a long time. But my layout is streamlined so I only see what is needed. Like I said previously, up is still up and down is still down. Being neurotic while trying to trade is a GREAT way to lose your money. And wasting time on youtube only amplifies the problems.

If a person doesn't have the courage to look in the mirror and stare at the truth of themself, then they won't learn. And without learning, you get people congregating on sites like this and youtube.


Peter
Trading is strangely simple when you just stop & think about it.
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