Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2882 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #57,621
  • Apr 9, 2021 2:45pm Apr 9, 2021 2:45pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Ok, you want a value outsider - here's a classic: Ami Desbois 175.0 / 30.0
Also: Sub Lieutenant 65.0 / 12.0
  • #57,622
  • Apr 9, 2021 7:38pm Apr 9, 2021 7:38pm
For Claudia ...

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  • #57,623
  • Apr 10, 2021 12:05am Apr 10, 2021 12:05am
Quoting sheppy
{quote} And here I thought the gu 4 hr break was based on the 2nd 4 hr period of the day
Hi sheppy.

That 4H range is from the UK open 00.00-04.00. Not the first 4H's after NY close.
The first 2 hours after NY close are not included in that range that Billy uses.

Hope that helps

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  • #57,624
  • Edited 2:00am Apr 10, 2021 1:41am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting lemercenaire
@Claudia. There's a very interesting horse for tomorrow. Outsider and extremely good value for a horse with its profile. Shattered Love 65.0 / 11.0 Even the other stable runner, Farclas, is interesting in its own right at 23.0 / 7.6 I have in no way devoted my usual time to this and these are fun (though solid) options and the top of the market seems valid. Will go and do a run through now and I will defo be trading the race. Have fun, all who get involved!
It's a bit like the lottery isn't it - treat it as fun and any gains are a bonus.
  • #57,625
  • Apr 10, 2021 2:00am Apr 10, 2021 2:00am
Quoting lemercenaire
@Claudia. There's a very interesting horse for tomorrow. Outsider and extremely good value for a horse with its profile. Shattered Love 65.0 / 11.0 Even the other stable runner, Farclas, is interesting in its own right at 23.0 / 7.6 I have in no way devoted my usual time to this and these are fun (though solid) options and the top of the market seems valid. Will go and do a run through now and I will defo be trading the race. Have fun, all who get involved!
I was going to ask what you meant about trading a race and then googled it/YouTubed.

Wow... this is a fascinating world of support and resistance, scalping lay bets, weight of money, pre off order flow and all sorts of things I never knew about.

Talk about a giant rabbit hole for me to get lost in...
  • #57,626
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:28am Apr 10, 2021 4:28am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} I was going to ask what you meant about trading a race and then googled it/YouTubed. Wow... this is a fascinating world of support and resistance, scalping lay bets, weight of money, pre off order flow and all sorts of things I never knew about. Talk about a giant rabbit hole for me to get lost in...
Lol, it's all sorts of fun in the sun!

Tennis and snooker are also good as of course is American Football. I'd see also basketball being an easy mark but I don't know enough about the game and rarely watch it. Horses give more than enough action!

Can be dangerous though. Dip your toe gently
  • #57,627
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:28am Apr 10, 2021 4:28am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} It's a bit like the lottery isn't it - treat it as fun and any gains are a bonus.
It is - but it's also a doddle to trade.
  • #57,628
  • Apr 10, 2021 7:33am Apr 10, 2021 7:33am
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Hi sheppy. That 4H range is from the UK open 00.00-04.00. Not the first 4H's after NY close. The first 2 hours after NY close are not included in that range that Billy uses. Hope that helps {image}
So in the example you posted the low broke first . If I understand the method correctly we would be waiting to go long at the high of the four hr period. Conversely if the high had been broken first we would be wanting to go short at the low.
  • #57,629
  • Apr 10, 2021 12:45pm Apr 10, 2021 12:45pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} As always anyone could win. Takingrisks looks a good price at 22/1, also Minella Times at 9/1 with Rachael as jockey. She's won twice on this horse and two seconds. Both e/w bets with most bookies paying 5 places. Good luck !
GIRL POWER!!!
  • #57,630
  • Apr 10, 2021 2:10pm Apr 10, 2021 2:10pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} GIRL POWER!!!
My main trade players in a strong-headed market were top three v fav, so had winner for profit of +9.5...had a solid ew on Ami Debois, who was brought down while doing well. Others - four of - were all secondary but we're all traded out for profit. Good day.
  • #57,631
  • Apr 10, 2021 2:16pm Apr 10, 2021 2:16pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} My main trade players in a strong-headed market were top three v fav, so had winner for profit of +9.5...had a solid ew on Ami Debois, who was brought down while doing well. Others - four of - were all secondary but we're all traded out for profit. Good day.
Found this guy Peter Webb. Seems legit to learn more from?

This seems really very interesting stuff...
  • #57,632
  • Apr 10, 2021 3:33pm Apr 10, 2021 3:33pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Found this guy Peter Webb. Seems legit to learn more from? This seems really very interesting stuff...
No idea. Never heard of him. My main method is my own and trading back / lay is as old as the hills, just that BetFair makes it so easy to do now.

It's just numbers for my method and form etc will only come into it if I am playing some additional Each Ways or whatever.
  • #57,633
  • Apr 10, 2021 3:39pm Apr 10, 2021 3:39pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} No idea. Never heard of him. My main method is my own and trading back / lay is as old as the hills, just that BetFair makes it so easy to do now. It's just numbers for my method and form etc will only come into it if I am playing some additional Each Ways or whatever.
Ok thanks. I enjoy learning new things and already the mrs is worried, so I must be onto something interesting...

Down the hole I go...
  • #57,634
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:58pm Apr 10, 2021 9:58pm
Quoting sheppy
{quote} So in the example you posted the low broke first . If I understand the method correctly we would be waiting to go long at the high of the four hr period. Conversely if the high had been broken first we would be wanting to go short at the low.
You will hear Billy, Lem, Claudia, etc etc continually reminding me (us) to "trade the line".

That line being the low/high of the range.

In this instance, as you mentioned, price broke the low (A) but didn't go very far....only a couple of pips, so your trade would have been triggered, but depending on your profit target, wouldn't have been hit.
(personally, I wasn't on it then as I was committed on another trade)

After A pulled back into the range, it could have kept going north, but turned bearish again at (B).

I had a pending sell on which triggered when (C) broke the low and I got my +5.

Obviously, I could have done a lot better, and I think Billy mentioned that he uses this 4hour range to "Chase the range".

What he means there is he is looking at the 70 range for GU and as you can see, it would have been a perfect trade. (wish I had have held it lol)

So it's not necessarily about....if it breaks this way.....I will trade the opposite.......it's simply about "trading the line".

I hope I got all that right, but I stand to be corrected.
I hope that helps sheppy.
Cheers
Michael

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  • #57,635
  • Apr 11, 2021 3:06am Apr 11, 2021 3:06am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Ok thanks. I enjoy learning new things and already the mrs is worried, so I must be onto something interesting... Down the hole I go...
As well as Betfair https://smarkets.com/ is worth a look. Very similar to Betfair but commission 2% as opposed to 5%.

Good luck with your new addiction !! Take it slow as Lem says.
  • #57,636
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:58am Apr 11, 2021 6:58am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} As well as Betfair https://smarkets.com/ is worth a look. Very similar to Betfair but commission 2% as opposed to 5%. Good luck with your new addiction !! Take it slow as Lem says.
I would say that for trading seriously, BetFair is the way to go, as the liquidity and depth of market is far superior. However, if you are running straight bets (win, each-way, place) etc and are not betting in the heavy hundreds or thousands, then that percentage advantage is worthwhile.

You can, of course also play both off against one another.
  • #57,637
  • Apr 11, 2021 9:23am Apr 11, 2021 9:23am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} As well as Betfair https://smarkets.com/ is worth a look. Very similar to Betfair but commission 2% as opposed to 5%. Good luck with your new addiction !! Take it slow as Lem says.
Thanks Claudia/Lem. I’m not trading FX full time next week so will have time to open an account and have an explore.
I’ll see if I can figure out a plan of some sort, I like the idea of using the ladder to scalp but I’ve yet to see it real time and maybe it’s just for selling 3rd party software... Just YouTubeing at the moment trying to figure out a way to start. I’ll only throw £100 at it to start with! See how fast it goes
  • #57,638
  • Apr 11, 2021 11:14am Apr 11, 2021 11:14am
Quoting MichaelG
So it's not necessarily about....if it breaks this way.....I will trade the opposite.......it's simply about "trading the line". I
+

I believe ia1979 said some time ago, that entering a trade on the second break of the 00-04 GMT range is of better probability based on the statistics he collected (not sure what sample size). But he also mentioned a few days ago that over the last weeks the range broke numerous times (more than 3 times) without going anywhere. So possibly you would have whipsawed entering on every single touch of the range high or low.

In any case you should be very careful about increasing your stake size within each new break (if that's something you think about). I've paid my tuition here doing so on the BillyBar range. Even if you are looking for only a small amount of pips like 5, it happens that price will not even move so far while it touches the high or low multiple times. Then when your initial position size taking the first break is already big you will run out of margin very fast.
  • #57,639
  • Apr 11, 2021 12:12pm Apr 11, 2021 12:12pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I would say that for trading seriously, BetFair is the way to go, as the liquidity and depth of market is far superior. However, if you are running straight bets (win, each-way, place) etc and are not betting in the heavy hundreds or thousands, then that percentage advantage is worthwhile. You can, of course also play both off against one another.
You're right - but it's worth being aware of the different options.
  • #57,640
  • Apr 11, 2021 2:22pm Apr 11, 2021 2:22pm
Difficulty sleeping ? - listen to the monotone drone of this presenter and sleep will come.

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