Elliot Wave Analysis

In this report if you notice, the euro shorts have been increased to 18K and longs have been reduced. this clearly indicates that institutional traders are shorting euro massively but retailers are buying and keeping euro afloat. It is a matter of time when these big guys are going to pull the trigger and bring euro down taking a lot of stops. So be careful of your longs.

The only currency worth mentioning is the AUD which looks stronger but i wouldn't take aud/usd long as well. I would instead sell eur/aud . euro looks the weakest and aud seems the strongest. i can expect a 200 pip move south on this pair this week.

In case of USD, the big boys have kept long and short changes almost similar. it is only a matter of time when they will increase their longs and pull the rug out of retail money. i can be wrong but my experience says they will go for the kill soon.

I don't trade yen much as it has a mind of it's own. but indexes are going up . there could be a consolidation for these next week i suppose. most of the yen pairs should be in consolidation and correction to the downside.

This image of dxy is worth mentioning as per COT report . There could be one more high as 5th wave and then B wave can start possibly. we will see how it goes.

I do not disagree that the chart suggest a deeper drop. I am just not certain that wave 4 on my Daily chart has completed.
I am probably over cautious if anything as I still see the higher TFs suggesting a higher price for Euro.

I guess we have to wait and see what happens .. i am expecting a gap in the opening price . I am not going to be out of bed at that time, I'll see when I wake up around 3 am GMT. I am expecting euro/usd to be down this week because of the cot report. anyway let's see what happens ... good luck!

Wave 4 completed. This bodes well for a 5 wave drop should my Daily chart hold true.

EURUSD DAILY : Wave 4 Target reached. Waiting for a drop now.

What are you waiting for?
If you are expecting a drop for wave5 than you should initiate to build your sell positions. Isn't it?

sorry guys I've been engaged in some outdoor activities today, so i couldn't update the charts. anyway, there's quite a lot of manipulation and confusion in the market today. The institutional traders are up to something. eur had an 18K increase in the short holdings and euro was taken up and the high also taken. i was thinking something like this would happen but i don't think euro bull run has started as of yet. On post 1341, i had mentioned about selling eur/aud and i had done that in the morning. i sold eur/nzd as well . If you notice most of the majors went up today against dollar. this might be to get more bulls in the market . anyway let's monitor the market but i am on the sell side of eur/usd.

Good chart Greenspanke!!! i agree with you.

Hi stringfx,

Given your COT 4-week spreadsheet, I figured I'd take a look at what happened over the last 4 weeks (we're now in the 5th) and see if there's any way I might have guessed which charts would go up/down/sideways. I have to say it's still Greek to me, because when it seems that various COT changes indicate the Non-commercials going more short (or long), the corresponding chart shows it is still hard (for me anyway) to guess the future direction when I am told on Friday 3:30 NY what did the big traders do the previous Tuesday 17:00 NY to Tuesday 17:00 NY.

Below is first your COT spreadsheet for easy reference, and then several H1 charts which show weekly aggregated candles starting NOT on Sunday, but on Tuesday 17:00 NY (which it so happens on this broker is at 00:00 given this feed is "NY+7"; BTW, most people improperly refer to this as a "GMT+2" data feed, but it follows USA ST/DST dates, hence "NY+7" is technically correct).

The best way to look at each chart is to look at one of the aggregated candles, and see what happened the entire candle. Then 3 days later, each Friday 3:30 NY time the results are released. (This is just 90 minutes before the markets Friday Close, followed by the Sunday open). Therefore, anything could have happened by these big COT traders in the preceding 3 days before you learned what they did. Maybe COT says they went short Tu-Tu, then on Friday, it was any one of: lower-still, neutral, or higher. Is the sentiment now "old", or still in play? Are they going to jerk around the market now and shake people out? (Yes of course, but can smart traders figure this out??).

I don't have any brilliant insights, but post it for your consideration and comments. I still recall of course your recommendation to use my other methods for trade signals and just keep in mind the COT info, but so far, COT is still a mystery to me.

And one more chart (since 10 is the limit per post), because this EURCAD chart shows about 5 weeks of the mostly down-trend, so it would have been great to get in front of.

You remind me of myself 3 years back.. scratching my head and tearing my hair trying to figure out how cot analysis can help me in intraday or short swing trades.
Iam actually impressed by your curious mind .
Good research done and I will add to it but need some time. I have some work today but I will reply before end of day. Try to think of cot as 4 weeks previous data to forecast 4 to 6 weeks of forward trading. I will explain in detail when I post again.

I do not build positions nor do I enter without being sure. As I mentioned before on my previous post, I saw higher Euro on my charts higher than Daily.
When I cant align my charts to be going in one direction I'd rather wait than build positions and end up holding them
like I would be had I done what was suggested on your post. I understand that it is a method employed by most traders using the Elliot Waves.

I hope that answers your question Merka. I look forward to reading more of your charts and posts.

I'm just asking out of curiosity that no one is using wave 6?

EUR
date long short long change short change %long %short
02 Mar 222655 96667 -5846 6531 70 30 short net long
09-Mar 207588 105624 -15067 8957 66 34 short net long
16-Mar 195857 105881 -11731 257 65 35 short net long
23-Mar 195500 102178 -357 -3703 66 34 neutral net long
30-Mar 194763 121024 -737 18846 62 38 short net long

Lets just take the COT report for EUR alone for the time being. I've added 02 mar data as well.
Here we notice that EUR is always net long from 02 march onwards with more long contracts than short contracts through out the month of march.
On 2nd march the non commercials have made some major contributions. collectively they have increased the short positions 6531 contracts and reduced their long positions by 5846 contracts. even after that EUR positions in the market by these big traders are 70% long and 30% short but for the near future they are leaning towards a shorter Euro. What i am trying to say is that you don't need to apply this data from next Monday onwards which is 8th of mar. You should follow the system that you usually use with a bearish bias for euro for the coming weeks.

When I see data like this, i put in my EW counts and draw my fibs to see where this can potentially go with this bearish bias. Now look at this eur/usd 4hr chart.
I have marked a vertical line on 2nd of march at 00:00 hrs. that is a Tuesday. with the nature of the move, i can clearly make out that this is an impulse wave. Now i check on a lower time frame, if i can count a 5 wave structure, and then there was a correction, so when i drew a fib expansion, with this bearish bias. Please notice that 8th march is when you actually can use the cot report as report only comes on 6th mar which is Saturday . The end result is a nice wave 3 with 161.8 fib ratio.
after that usually there is a rise in euro as a correction for the 4th wave for which i was expecting a 38.2 and then a decline for the 5th wave. the 4th wave can rise to 1.1992 which is the end of wave 1. with this bearish bias on euro, i can be reasonably sure of another drop in the 5th wave, this gives me a chance to build small bearish position at different fib level. I hope i made some sense. i know it's confusing but COT is a long term data.
At this moment there is a lot of risk as we are trading counter trend. the smart money is definitely net long, so on the longer term euro is bullish unless the bias flips. When smart money is net long and you get long contracts increasing and short contracts are decreasing, we are going with the trend and that will yield a lot more pips.

[quote=tiborf71;13483802]I'm just asking out of curiosity that no one is using

Nice one !!!!

Morning guys
On EU daily I can't figure out on this retracement wave4 in progress the subdivision abc.
Can someone help?
Thanks

EURUSD right now is targeting 1.1900- 1.1910 area IMHO.
That's where I'm waiting for the drop.

The nearest previous resistance in that area on my chart is 1.19083.

My updated chart.

Today is FOMC minutes . This might be the turning point for eur/usd. the invalidation line is on my chart at 1.1993 that is the end point of wave 1. Now, there seems to be a rejection at 50% but it can actually go to 61.8% as well, so protect your position . Hopefully after fomc, the 5th wave will start.

Notice the other pic i am posting, this is the average sentiment across most retail traders with famous brokers. In this the price is rising and retail traders are selling. Now it's time for retail to start buying and big traders to start selling. So in my honest opinion, we should get a good break down but you can never say with these markets. some of my stops were already hit at 38.2%