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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,321
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:05am Mar 31, 2021 4:05am
on a 4 hr chart of DXY, we can see a 5 wave pattern is also complete with a 61.8 extension to end the 5th wave and also a subsequent rejection from that fib value. This is A wave completion according to me Now i am hoping that for the next weeks, dxy could dip lower to a 50% target of this rally. Here is a 4 hr chart for targets as to completion of B wave . 91.30 might seal the B wave and then we can hope for a big C wave up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,322
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:07am Mar 31, 2021 4:07am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Can't help you in patterns, i am more of a fibonacci target person and IMHO we have completed the 5 wave pattern and now the correction is on with minor waves and major waves. We aeem to have also completed the A leg of this massive corrective move. We could be starting the B leg of the major wave. In this hourly chart, we should be getting at least a push to 23.6 at least 1.1805. i am sure it's not going to stop there but initial targets is that. Don't bet the farm though. {image}

oops..my apologies..shd have been wave wise..abc-wxy..agree y may have completed. Watching the up move and pullback. Just thinking abt wedge that others are talking abt. Still a possibility of a wedge..which would meAn and x and z..so now watching rebounds n pullback before concluding whether B rebound or not...
  • #1,323
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:15am Mar 31, 2021 4:15am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} oops..my apologies..shd have been wave wise..abc-wxy..agree y may have completed. Watching the up move and pullback. Just thinking abt wedge that others are talking abt. Still a possibility of a wedge..which would meAn and x and z..so now watching rebounds n pullback before concluding whether B rebound or not...
No worries ... you can post your style of trading for everyone else to see... it's just that i am a little ignorant on that subject which is why i cannot help but you are welcome to put your idea through ..
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  • #1,324
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:18am Mar 31, 2021 4:18am
Quoting stringfx
on a 4 hr chart of DXY, we can see a 5 wave pattern is also complete with a 61.8 extension to end the 5th wave and also a subsequent rejection from that fib value. This is A wave completion according to me Now i am hoping that for the next weeks, dxy could dip lower to a 50% target of this rally. Here is a 4 hr chart for targets as to completion of B wave . 91.30 might seal the B wave and then we can hope for a big C wave up. {image}

thanks..I am watching this..let’s see tonight.
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  • #1,325
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:25am Mar 31, 2021 4:25am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} No worries ... you can post your style of trading for everyone else to see... it's just that i am a little ignorant on that subject which is why i cannot help but you are welcome to put your idea through ..
by the way., it seems to me the squiggles are not clear. Could also be 4th wave by just eyeballing as it’s too messy when I went down to 15 min and 5 mins...the squiggles just don’t add up..so I dun rule out another Low to complete the wave..
  • #1,326
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:31am Mar 31, 2021 4:31am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} by the way., it seems to me the squiggles are not clear. Could also be 4th wave by just eyeballing as it’s too messy when I went down to 15 min and 5 mins...the squiggles just don’t add up..so I dun rule out another Low to complete the wave..
Yes it is a possibility as dxy seem to have finished the wave structure but eur/usd seems incomplete. maybe it will make another low when dxy is going for minor wave 2.
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  • #1,327
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:42am Mar 31, 2021 4:42am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Yes it is a possibility as dxy seem to have finished the wave structure but eur/usd seems incomplete. maybe it will make another low when dxy is going for minor wave 2.
actually the structure for dxy also not ideal IMO....I see what seems incomplete wave structure for your 5 or my z.. it could have completed or still ongoing. Anyway, just my thoughts.
  • #1,328
  • Mar 31, 2021 10:56am Mar 31, 2021 10:56am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} actually the structure for dxy also not ideal IMO....I see what seems incomplete wave structure for your 5 or my z.. it could have completed or still ongoing. Anyway, just my thoughts.
so far it seems to be playing out. If it breaks the high again then we will worry about it. so far we might have finished the A wave and we should decline into wave B to around 91.29.
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  • #1,329
  • Mar 31, 2021 11:10am Mar 31, 2021 11:10am
Look at the gold movement ... it's on steroids !
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  • #1,330
  • Mar 31, 2021 2:46pm Mar 31, 2021 2:46pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} so far it seems to be playing out. If it breaks the high again then we will worry about it. so far we might have finished the A wave and we should decline into wave B to around 91.29. {image}

A wave is only confirmed if we have a LL. At the moment is still HL. IMO.
  • #1,331
  • Apr 1, 2021 8:07am Apr 1, 2021 8:07am
so far seems good ... i guess 1st and 2nd minor wave is done. Hopefully we are doing a minor 3rd now ... the structure does not seem very proper which is why i waited this long to post.

DXY seems to be going down. Hopefully with some bad news to come in the economic calendar will take it more down. let's wait and watch. i have a small buy on eur/usd and gbp/usd. i have bigger buys on nas100 and dow30.

here is a 30 min chart .
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  • #1,332
  • Apr 1, 2021 8:13am Apr 1, 2021 8:13am
Just the opposite with eur/usd ..
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  • #1,333
  • Apr 2, 2021 12:00am Apr 2, 2021 12:00am
dxy 4 hr
before jumping into the conclusion of the start of a B wave, let's not rule out another possibility that this fall could be a 4th wave as well and we could get a new high as wave 5 . If you check this chart, there is a possibility. so instead of jumping the guns and shorting dxy hard, now is the time to wait and see where this is going. Besides it's a Friday and since it's a good Friday, volume is going to be very less as major traders are in a holiday mood and will be away with family and friends. Any new trades should be taken after the holidays and i would suggest you all to also enjoy the festivities rather than being stuck at your trading desk.

This is just a thought of mine as an alternate . I am still positive about the first count as A wave complete and B wave has started but not ruling out this possibility.
So enjoy yourself this Easter and come back with fresh minds to make a lot of money in this market.
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  • #1,334
  • Apr 2, 2021 6:14am Apr 2, 2021 6:14am
Excellent thread ! Excellent work !
Maybe it's complete.
Channel, Pivot Yearly.
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  • #1,335
  • Edited 7:05am Apr 2, 2021 6:43am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting Glpp
Excellent thread ! Excellent work ! Maybe it's complete. Channel, Pivot Yearly. {image}
Thanks for the kind words .. and for the chart. Yes maybe you are right but i just have a doubt as the retracement after the major move does not seem complete for a wave 2. It needs a deeper correction as you can notice in my chart, it has not even done 38.2 retracement. usually at least a 50% retracement is required. (not carved in stone). there has been shallow waves as well but that is usually in lower timeframes. daily timeframes has been mostly sticking to the major rules. anyway thanks for the input. let's see what happens.
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  • #1,336
  • Apr 2, 2021 11:03am Apr 2, 2021 11:03am
Excellent thread indeed! Great work guys. Still new to EW but I also think EURUSD still have much to drop.
The upside is capped at 1.1800 to 1.1812 area as Im still not sure if wave 4 of extended C is completed on my chart.

I'm just curious Sting and I'm just asking to learn more. What is the reason for your labelling the waves 1 and 2 on your chart above?

Thanks and looking forward to your answer.
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,337
  • Apr 2, 2021 11:29am Apr 2, 2021 11:29am
Quoting Greenspanke
Excellent thread indeed! Great work guys. Still new to EW but I also think EURUSD still have much to drop. The upside is capped at 1.1800 to 1.1812 area as Im still not sure if wave 4 of extended C is completed on my chart. I'm just curious Sting and I'm just asking to learn more. What is the reason for your labelling the waves 1 and 2 on your chart above? Thanks and looking forward to your answer.
Thanks for the encouragement. You are almost as old as me in forex factory. I remember seeing you in other Elliott wave threads especially in the ichimoku elliott wave chinese thread. Smilemiz and raza . those were the days. do you remember auslanco and malcolm and karmostaji and even markham? those were the great traders in forex factory. unfortunately reckless people drove them off this site with comments. anyway nice of one of the oldies dropping into this thread.

Regarding your question, i analyse DXY or dollar index which is the core currency. most of the other majors are paired with it. So if DXY is either weak or powerful, it will generally affect others as well. so i try to draw the waves on dxy daily chart and see potential waves and trends on it. if you go through the thread. i have been updating dxy's performance through my charts. In my honest opinion, dxy has finished a major wave down and now it is in a corrective mode to the upside, since it is a wave 2, there is a good possibility of a 50 to 61.8 correction of the last down move. I am assuming here that the 2nd wave correction up is a simple abc at the moment. we will see the progress as it develops. So far i assume A leg of the correction is over and B leg down has started. later we will see a c leg up to end the correction.
In the case of the earlier eur/usd chart, it is just the inverse. eur/usd on daily was a bullish pair and now it is correcting down for a 2nd wave. since it is a wave 2, i am expecting a deeper correction. if this does not make sense, i can explain with charts, but it would be easier to scroll back and check previous posts on daily charts. it will make sense. else give me a shout.
STING
  • #1,338
  • Edited 12:41pm Apr 2, 2021 12:08pm | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Thanks for the encouragement. You are almost as old as me in forex factory. I remember seeing you in other Elliott wave threads especially in the ichimoku elliott wave chinese thread. Smilemiz and raza . those were the days. do you remember auslanco and malcolm and karmostaji and even markham? those were the great traders in forex factory. unfortunately reckless people drove them off this site with comments. anyway nice of one of the oldies dropping into this thread. Regarding your question, i analyse DXY or dollar index which is the core...

Thanks for the reply Sting? Yeah I do remember those guys you mentioned but that time I really could not understand the waves at all but
were amazed at how they were accurate in their counts. I knew I have to learn counting as well if I wanted to continue trading.

I stopped trading for sometime to start a business and happy to say the business is now thriving and can resume trading again. I really hope to also one day be able to count waves as those guys you mentioned.

I'm going to see if I can label the dxy chart. Ive just concentrated on EURUSD charts and try align the waves from H4 to Monthly.

Here's what Ive done on my Daily chart. Let me know what you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD DAILY April 2.png Size: 96 KB
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,339
  • Apr 2, 2021 2:24pm Apr 2, 2021 2:24pm
Quoting Greenspanke
{quote} Thanks for the reply Sting? Yeah I do remember those guys you mentioned but that time I really could not understand the waves at all but were amazed at how they were accurate in their counts. I knew I have to learn counting as well if I wanted to continue trading. I stopped trading for sometime to start a business and happy to say the business is now thriving and can resume trading again. I really hope to also one day be able to count waves as those guys you mentioned. I'm going to see if I can label the dxy chart. Ive just concentrated...
Yes your chart looks good but still i am not sure this retracement is over yet. check this chart( i have posted before). Euro had a major wave 1 complete with almost 1720 pips and usually 2nd wave in eur/usd retraces to at least 50% on daily. This wave has not even hit 38.2% retracement, so i feel there is still more downward movement left. we have already done an a-b-c move now you might get a 3 wave up and then another wave down. check this chart
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  • #1,340
  • Apr 3, 2021 12:30am Apr 3, 2021 12:30am
Hi Folks ..

I was waiting for this weeks COT report at tradingster.com to check if there are any major changes and yes there are some changes which has changed my view of the counts. I was expecting a bearish USD for some weeks but the COT report is not agreeing to this count of mine. The data still shows that the asset managers and hedge funds want to take us dollar up a little more. So my assumption on post 1333 looks promising. i can be wrong as well. but i will be closing my bullish position on eur, gbp and gold until clearer picture. Here is my COT analysis of all majors for the last 4 weeks.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx 4 week cot analysis.xlsx   29 KB | 277 downloads
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