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Attachments: How do you know when the trend is over?
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How do you know when the trend is over?

If its so easy to know to identify the trend. Eveyone must be making money.
Identifying trend is not so easy and nobody can predict precicely how market will move.

It depend on trader how to get benifit from market move..
Keep learning always
  • Post #22
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  • Edited 2:45am Aug 4, 2013 2:34am | Edited 2:45am
Trends and ranging markets are all extremely subjective and in my point of view almost useless, kind of like elliott waves. Great in hindsight but nothing you can actually use.

That said...my personal experience is that some of the bigger moves happen after major news events. Price rarely ever just turns around and blasts past the origin of that kind of move.

Edit: I lied. You can use higher highs and lower lows as a component for a trading strategy but using it in something like a moving average cross to catch a 'trend' is a waste of time imo.
Quoting baghels
If its so easy to know to identify the trend. Eveyone must be making money. Identifying trend is not so easy and nobody can predict precicely how market will move. It depend on trader how to get benifit from market move.. Keep learning always
true.I have stared to use retail positioning in my analysis to predict the continuation of a move.Whenever I have taken a position with retail majority I always lose!.I am trying to develop methods to exploit this.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
I use the three brothers pattern to determine when the trend is over...
How do you know when the trend is over?
When you enter the trend and suddenly you lose!!

How do you know when the trend is start ? (When does a trend start)

A new trend start when you lose and try to analyze why? then you realize the market have already move so far!!
"I made money every time you place your Stop loss too close to ME"
The trend is your friend until it bites you in the a.r.s.e!
My trend definitions are as follows:

UP trend: Price makes higher highs and higher lows (staircase going UP).
UP trend likely ends when price makes lower high or lower low.

DOWN trend: Price makes lower lows and lower highs (staircase going DOWN).
DOWN trend likely ends when price makes higher low or higher high.

CONSOLIDATION begins when price makes lower high and higher low so that price range is constricted.
CONSOLIDATION likely ends when price makes higher high and lower low so that price range expands following constriction.

I find that these rules tend to become more reliable as the time frame lengthens. I use fractals (Metatrader: Insert > Indicators > Bill Williams > Fractals) to mark the highs and lows. However, I find that the staircases and areas of consolidation are much easier to see if I use a fractal levels indicator that connects the fractals with horizontal lines as shown in the attached MT5 daily chart of AUDUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FractalTrend.jpg Size: 317 KB
TheLazyForexTrader
I hear the bell ring in my head when the trend is over
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
Quoting sandycarrot
(1) How do you know when the trend is over? (2) How do you know when the trend is start ? (When does a trend start) (Of course we all know there is a trend within the trend, so it's up to you of where you see the scope ) thx. s.c
read "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore, and you'll understand when a trend starts and when it ends.

I can give you a hint though = Market Structure.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} read "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore, and you'll understand when a trend starts and when it ends. I can give you a hint though = Market Structure.
You're 8 years late. Lol
Patience.....
Quoting Fredo219
{quote} You're 8 years late. Lol
apparently that is true..
but it's still relevant nonetheless.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} apparently that is true.. but it's still relevant nonetheless.
I tot you followed Peter Crown
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} I tot you followed Peter Crown
I did, but not anymore, didn't suit my personality.

What suits me is Livermore's way of identifying trend.

Entries is the last thing I want to look at, identifying trend is the first.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
Searching for the trend start or a pivot point involves high risks associated with
- false breakouts: you will try to find the end of one trend (breakout) and the beginning of another, but the levels that you consider as a channel can be breached falsely, for a short time, after which price returns to inside of the channel.
- news jumps: you are trying to catch an impulse in the very beginning, but during the news volatility increases and the market gives a false signal, after which a news impulse starts in the opposite direction
- psychological levels: you try to find the beginning of a trend near the psychological level, but instead get into a flat and have to wait for the consolidation completion, wasting time and using margin.

As a result, not to hope that you can pinpoint the beginning of a trend or its end. This can be confirmed, for example, by overcoming certain key levels (but remember about false signals).
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} I did, but not anymore, didn't suit my personality. What suits me is Livermore's way of identifying trend. Entries is the last thing I want to look at, identifying trend is the first.
too lazy to look it up......just curious, so what did Livermore say exactly?
Quoting yonnie
{quote} too lazy to look it up......just curious, so what did Livermore say exactly?
Oversimplification: market structure
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
Well...A trend starts when it starts and ends when it ends.
The truth is logical lmao.
But seriously, something influences the appearance of a trend. Some kind of news, for example. The same with the end of the trend. Where one trend ends, another begins.
(1) How do you know when the trend is over?
Answer: When you buy
Nothing to learn here
In the following chart, the uptrend will end and the downtrend is started when the 91.30 support is broken ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6468467A-DDC0-45ED-B67C-F3A3B518FA5F.jpeg Size: 334 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
for new trend begin...learn Dow Theories
end trend learn elliot wave
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