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How do you know when the trend is over?

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  • Post #21
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  • Aug 4, 2013 2:07am Aug 4, 2013 2:07am
  •  baghels
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
If its so easy to know to identify the trend. Eveyone must be making money.
Identifying trend is not so easy and nobody can predict precicely how market will move.

It depend on trader how to get benifit from market move..
Keep learning always
 
 
  • Post #22
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  • Edited 2:45am Aug 4, 2013 2:34am | Edited 2:45am
  •  Kanzler
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Account Deactivated | 2,737 Posts
Trends and ranging markets are all extremely subjective and in my point of view almost useless, kind of like elliott waves. Great in hindsight but nothing you can actually use.

That said...my personal experience is that some of the bigger moves happen after major news events. Price rarely ever just turns around and blasts past the origin of that kind of move.

Edit: I lied. You can use higher highs and lower lows as a component for a trading strategy but using it in something like a moving average cross to catch a 'trend' is a waste of time imo.
 
 
  • Post #23
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  • Aug 4, 2013 2:51am Aug 4, 2013 2:51am
  •  pemully
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: riding the lightning | 935 Posts
Quoting baghels
Disliked
If its so easy to know to identify the trend. Eveyone must be making money. Identifying trend is not so easy and nobody can predict precicely how market will move. It depend on trader how to get benifit from market move.. Keep learning always
Ignored
true.I have stared to use retail positioning in my analysis to predict the continuation of a move.Whenever I have taken a position with retail majority I always lose!.I am trying to develop methods to exploit this.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
 
 
  • Post #24
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  • Aug 6, 2013 7:22am Aug 6, 2013 7:22am
  •  mumuy
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2013 | 112 Posts
I use the three brothers pattern to determine when the trend is over...
 
 
  • Post #25
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  • Aug 6, 2013 7:39am Aug 6, 2013 7:39am
  •  Masterm1nd
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 84 Posts
How do you know when the trend is over?
When you enter the trend and suddenly you lose!!

How do you know when the trend is start ? (When does a trend start)

A new trend start when you lose and try to analyze why? then you realize the market have already move so far!!
"I made money every time you place your Stop loss too close to ME"
 
1
  • Post #26
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  • Aug 6, 2013 8:06am Aug 6, 2013 8:06am
  •  FxJunky
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Apr 2008 | 125 Posts
The trend is your friend until it bites you in the a.r.s.e!
 
 
  • Post #27
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  • Aug 7, 2013 7:29am Aug 7, 2013 7:29am
  •  invicta
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 44 Posts
My trend definitions are as follows:

UP trend: Price makes higher highs and higher lows (staircase going UP).
UP trend likely ends when price makes lower high or lower low.

DOWN trend: Price makes lower lows and lower highs (staircase going DOWN).
DOWN trend likely ends when price makes higher low or higher high.

CONSOLIDATION begins when price makes lower high and higher low so that price range is constricted.
CONSOLIDATION likely ends when price makes higher high and lower low so that price range expands following constriction.

I find that these rules tend to become more reliable as the time frame lengthens. I use fractals (Metatrader: Insert > Indicators > Bill Williams > Fractals) to mark the highs and lows. However, I find that the staircases and areas of consolidation are much easier to see if I use a fractal levels indicator that connects the fractals with horizontal lines as shown in the attached MT5 daily chart of AUDUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: FractalTrend.jpg
Size: 317 KB
TheLazyForexTrader
 
 
  • Post #28
  • Quote
  • Aug 7, 2013 10:36am Aug 7, 2013 10:36am
  •  limprobable
  • Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Member | 557 Posts
I hear the bell ring in my head when the trend is over
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
 
 
  • Post #29
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  • Mar 25, 2021 12:31am Mar 25, 2021 12:31am
  •  remonpilip
  • | Joined Nov 2019 | Status: Member | 164 Posts
Quoting sandycarrot
Disliked
(1) How do you know when the trend is over? (2) How do you know when the trend is start ? (When does a trend start) (Of course we all know there is a trend within the trend, so it's up to you of where you see the scope ) thx. s.c
Ignored
read "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore, and you'll understand when a trend starts and when it ends.

I can give you a hint though = Market Structure.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
 
 
  • Post #30
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  • Mar 25, 2021 1:12am Mar 25, 2021 1:12am
  •  Fredo219
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 422 Posts
Quoting remonpilip
Disliked
{quote} read "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore, and you'll understand when a trend starts and when it ends. I can give you a hint though = Market Structure.
Ignored
You're 8 years late. Lol
Patience.....
 
 
  • Post #31
  • Quote
  • Mar 25, 2021 1:19am Mar 25, 2021 1:19am
  •  remonpilip
  • | Joined Nov 2019 | Status: Member | 164 Posts
Quoting Fredo219
Disliked
{quote} You're 8 years late. Lol
Ignored
apparently that is true..
but it's still relevant nonetheless.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
 
 
  • Post #32
  • Quote
  • Mar 25, 2021 1:22am Mar 25, 2021 1:22am
  •  mixedbags
  • Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Member | 809 Posts
Quoting remonpilip
Disliked
{quote} apparently that is true.. but it's still relevant nonetheless.
Ignored
I tot you followed Peter Crown
 
 
  • Post #33
  • Quote
  • Mar 25, 2021 2:29am Mar 25, 2021 2:29am
  •  remonpilip
  • | Joined Nov 2019 | Status: Member | 164 Posts
Quoting mixedbags
Disliked
{quote} I tot you followed Peter Crown
Ignored
I did, but not anymore, didn't suit my personality.

What suits me is Livermore's way of identifying trend.

Entries is the last thing I want to look at, identifying trend is the first.
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
 
 
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Mar 30, 2021 12:32pm Mar 30, 2021 12:32pm
  •  Marcellus8610
  • | Joined Feb 2021 | Status: Member | 170 Posts
Searching for the trend start or a pivot point involves high risks associated with
- false breakouts: you will try to find the end of one trend (breakout) and the beginning of another, but the levels that you consider as a channel can be breached falsely, for a short time, after which price returns to inside of the channel.
- news jumps: you are trying to catch an impulse in the very beginning, but during the news volatility increases and the market gives a false signal, after which a news impulse starts in the opposite direction
- psychological levels: you try to find the beginning of a trend near the psychological level, but instead get into a flat and have to wait for the consolidation completion, wasting time and using margin.

As a result, not to hope that you can pinpoint the beginning of a trend or its end. This can be confirmed, for example, by overcoming certain key levels (but remember about false signals).
 
 
  • Post #35
  • Quote
  • Mar 30, 2021 10:00pm Mar 30, 2021 10:00pm
  •  yonnie
  • Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 1,158 Posts
Quoting remonpilip
Disliked
{quote} I did, but not anymore, didn't suit my personality. What suits me is Livermore's way of identifying trend. Entries is the last thing I want to look at, identifying trend is the first.
Ignored
too lazy to look it up......just curious, so what did Livermore say exactly?
 
 
  • Post #36
  • Quote
  • Mar 30, 2021 10:03pm Mar 30, 2021 10:03pm
  •  remonpilip
  • | Joined Nov 2019 | Status: Member | 164 Posts
Quoting yonnie
Disliked
{quote} too lazy to look it up......just curious, so what did Livermore say exactly?
Ignored
Oversimplification: market structure
Let ur winners run & cut ur losses short.
 
 
  • Post #37
  • Quote
  • Mar 31, 2021 10:30am Mar 31, 2021 10:30am
  •  DragonT
  • | Joined Feb 2021 | Status: Member | 150 Posts
Well...A trend starts when it starts and ends when it ends.
The truth is logical lmao.
But seriously, something influences the appearance of a trend. Some kind of news, for example. The same with the end of the trend. Where one trend ends, another begins.
 
 
  • Post #38
  • Quote
  • Apr 3, 2021 11:14pm Apr 3, 2021 11:14pm
  •  NoobM
  • | Joined Aug 2020 | Status: Member | 49 Posts
(1) How do you know when the trend is over?
Answer: When you buy
Nothing to learn here
 
 
  • Post #39
  • Quote
  • Apr 4, 2021 12:04am Apr 4, 2021 12:04am
  •  4for4
  • Joined Apr 2017 | Status: 38737526 / 29052019 | 1,245 Posts
In the following chart, the uptrend will end and the downtrend is started when the 91.30 support is broken ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 6468467A-DDC0-45ED-B67C-F3A3B518FA5F.jpeg
Size: 334 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
 
 
  • Post #40
  • Quote
  • Apr 4, 2021 12:26pm Apr 4, 2021 12:26pm
  •  hajiuntung66
  • | Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 40 Posts
for new trend begin...learn Dow Theories
end trend learn elliot wave
 
 
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