How do you know when the trend is over? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trade What You Know and Know What You Trade 4 replies

Humor: You know you're obsessed with Technical Analysis when... 12 replies

You know you're over confident as a trader when..... 11 replies

Seven Big Things Professors Won’t Teach You (But You Should Know) 0 replies

Attachments: How do you know when the trend is over?
Exit Attachments

How do you know when the trend is over?

  • #21
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:07pm Aug 3, 2013 11:07pm
If its so easy to know to identify the trend. Eveyone must be making money.
Identifying trend is not so easy and nobody can predict precicely how market will move.

It depend on trader how to get benifit from market move..
Keep learning always
  • #22
  • Edited 11:45pm Aug 3, 2013 11:34pm | Edited 11:45pm
Trends and ranging markets are all extremely subjective and in my point of view almost useless, kind of like elliott waves. Great in hindsight but nothing you can actually use.

That said...my personal experience is that some of the bigger moves happen after major news events. Price rarely ever just turns around and blasts past the origin of that kind of move.

Edit: I lied. You can use higher highs and lower lows as a component for a trading strategy but using it in something like a moving average cross to catch a 'trend' is a waste of time imo.
  • #23
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:51pm Aug 3, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting baghels
If its so easy to know to identify the trend. Eveyone must be making money. Identifying trend is not so easy and nobody can predict precicely how market will move. It depend on trader how to get benifit from market move.. Keep learning always
true.I have stared to use retail positioning in my analysis to predict the continuation of a move.Whenever I have taken a position with retail majority I always lose!.I am trying to develop methods to exploit this.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #24
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:22am Aug 6, 2013 4:22am
I use the three brothers pattern to determine when the trend is over...
  • #25
  • Aug 6, 2013 4:39am Aug 6, 2013 4:39am
How do you know when the trend is over?
When you enter the trend and suddenly you lose!!

How do you know when the trend is start ? (When does a trend start)

A new trend start when you lose and try to analyze why? then you realize the market have already move so far!!
"I made money every time you place your Stop loss too close to ME"
  • #26
  • Aug 6, 2013 5:06am Aug 6, 2013 5:06am
The trend is your friend until it bites you in the a.r.s.e!
  • #27
  • Aug 7, 2013 4:29am Aug 7, 2013 4:29am
My trend definitions are as follows:

UP trend: Price makes higher highs and higher lows (staircase going UP).
UP trend likely ends when price makes lower high or lower low.

DOWN trend: Price makes lower lows and lower highs (staircase going DOWN).
DOWN trend likely ends when price makes higher low or higher high.

CONSOLIDATION begins when price makes lower high and higher low so that price range is constricted.
CONSOLIDATION likely ends when price makes higher high and lower low so that price range expands following constriction.

I find that these rules tend to become more reliable as the time frame lengthens. I use fractals (Metatrader: Insert > Indicators > Bill Williams > Fractals) to mark the highs and lows. However, I find that the staircases and areas of consolidation are much easier to see if I use a fractal levels indicator that connects the fractals with horizontal lines as shown in the attached MT5 daily chart of AUDUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FractalTrend.jpg Size: 317 KB
TheLazyForexTrader
  • #28
  • Aug 7, 2013 7:36am Aug 7, 2013 7:36am
I hear the bell ring in my head when the trend is over
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #29
  • Mar 24, 2021 9:31pm Mar 24, 2021 9:31pm
Quoting sandycarrot
(1) How do you know when the trend is over? (2) How do you know when the trend is start ? (When does a trend start) (Of course we all know there is a trend within the trend, so it's up to you of where you see the scope ) thx. s.c
read "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore, and you'll understand when a trend starts and when it ends.

I can give you a hint though = Market Structure.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #30
  • Mar 24, 2021 10:12pm Mar 24, 2021 10:12pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} read "How To Trade In Stocks" by Jesse Livermore, and you'll understand when a trend starts and when it ends. I can give you a hint though = Market Structure.
You're 8 years late. Lol
Patience.....
  • #31
  • Mar 24, 2021 10:19pm Mar 24, 2021 10:19pm
Quoting Fredo219
{quote} You're 8 years late. Lol
apparently that is true..
but it's still relevant nonetheless.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #32
  • Mar 24, 2021 10:22pm Mar 24, 2021 10:22pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} apparently that is true.. but it's still relevant nonetheless.
I tot you followed Peter Crown
  • #33
  • Mar 24, 2021 11:29pm Mar 24, 2021 11:29pm
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} I tot you followed Peter Crown
I did, but not anymore, didn't suit my personality.

What suits me is Livermore's way of identifying trend.

Entries is the last thing I want to look at, identifying trend is the first.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #34
  • Mar 30, 2021 9:32am Mar 30, 2021 9:32am
Searching for the trend start or a pivot point involves high risks associated with
- false breakouts: you will try to find the end of one trend (breakout) and the beginning of another, but the levels that you consider as a channel can be breached falsely, for a short time, after which price returns to inside of the channel.
- news jumps: you are trying to catch an impulse in the very beginning, but during the news volatility increases and the market gives a false signal, after which a news impulse starts in the opposite direction
- psychological levels: you try to find the beginning of a trend near the psychological level, but instead get into a flat and have to wait for the consolidation completion, wasting time and using margin.

As a result, not to hope that you can pinpoint the beginning of a trend or its end. This can be confirmed, for example, by overcoming certain key levels (but remember about false signals).
  • #35
  • Mar 30, 2021 7:00pm Mar 30, 2021 7:00pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} I did, but not anymore, didn't suit my personality. What suits me is Livermore's way of identifying trend. Entries is the last thing I want to look at, identifying trend is the first.
too lazy to look it up......just curious, so what did Livermore say exactly?
  • #36
  • Mar 30, 2021 7:03pm Mar 30, 2021 7:03pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} too lazy to look it up......just curious, so what did Livermore say exactly?
Oversimplification: market structure
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #37
  • Mar 31, 2021 7:30am Mar 31, 2021 7:30am
Well...A trend starts when it starts and ends when it ends.
The truth is logical lmao.
But seriously, something influences the appearance of a trend. Some kind of news, for example. The same with the end of the trend. Where one trend ends, another begins.
  • #38
  • Apr 3, 2021 8:14pm Apr 3, 2021 8:14pm
(1) How do you know when the trend is over?
Answer: When you buy
Nothing to learn here
  • #39
  • Apr 3, 2021 9:04pm Apr 3, 2021 9:04pm
In the following chart, the uptrend will end and the downtrend is started when the 91.30 support is broken ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6468467A-DDC0-45ED-B67C-F3A3B518FA5F.jpeg Size: 334 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #40
  • Apr 4, 2021 9:26am Apr 4, 2021 9:26am
for new trend begin...learn Dow Theories
end trend learn elliot wave
0 traders viewing now