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Follow the trend

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 3:06am Mar 25, 2021 2:41am | Edited 3:06am
just follow the fucking trend and you'll be hella profitable. (this is not an exaggeration)

risk 2% max of your capital.

you only have 1 of 2 choices, win rate or risk-reward?

I chose the former, as I love to win, my avg. rr is 1-to-1

any entry methods is okay, but I prefer breakouts.

find a good exit strategy, I exit whenever there is a Daily chart Pin-bar.

and yes I only trade the Daily timeframe, much more profitable.

People who thinks that they have to trade everyday are suckers. (losing trader)


edit:
the goal here is to be a consistently profitable trader, not to double your money in 2weeks.

after you are consistently profitable, investors will give you money, that's where the big bucks came from.

try to achieve 60% win rate and 1-to-1 rr for 6 months and voila! you are consistently profitable. it's that simple.

figure out how to manage your trades. entries is the least important thing, the most important thing other than MM & Psychology is how to identify trend.

Lemme give you a hint: Market Structure.

it's fuckin simple.

if you are new, you might wanna lose some money first until you feel numb. losses are necessary.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #2
  • Mar 25, 2021 3:02am Mar 25, 2021 3:02am
Hi i have a question how can you say entry is not important bcos if the trade goes in opposite direction you are going to be in loss.
  • #3
  • Mar 25, 2021 3:05am Mar 25, 2021 3:05am
Quoting asalami23
Hi i have a question how can you say entry is not important bcos if the trade goes in opposite direction you are going to be in loss.
Hi asalami23, thanks for the question.
this is my answer:
You will only lose if you are wrong in identifying the trend.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #4
  • Mar 25, 2021 3:35am Mar 25, 2021 3:35am
to add:
what most beginner traders don't understand is that, you can't have both high win rate and high rr.

the equation is as follow:

If you want High Win Rate then lower your rr.
If you want High Risk-Reward then lower your win rate.

It's as simple as that.

aim for 60% win rate with 1-to-1 risk-to-reward. If you can do that for 6months I consider you a consistently profitable trader.

edit:
I am sorry to be your personal party pooper. . .

but this is the reality of trading.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #5
  • Mar 25, 2021 3:44am Mar 25, 2021 3:44am
Quoting remonpilip
to add: what most beginner traders don't understand is that, you can't have both high win rate and high rr. the equation is as follow: If you want High Win Rate then lower your rr. If you want High Risk-Reward then lower your win rate. It's as simple as that. aim for 60% win rate with 1-to-1 risk-to-reward. If you can do that for 6months I consider you a consistently profitable trader. edit: I am sorry to be your personal party pooper. . . but this is the reality of trading.
I agree with 60% win rate with 1-1 risk but to get that 60% also requires a lot of effort.
  • #6
  • Mar 25, 2021 3:55am Mar 25, 2021 3:55am
Quoting asalami23
{quote} I agree with 60% win rate with 1-1 risk but to get that 60% also requires a lot of effort.
If you follow the right direction (with the trend) getting 60% win rate with a 1-to-1 risk-reward doesn't require a lot of effort.

all you need to do is just follow your strategy.

I personally have those kind of numbers as well, slightly above 60% win rate and an average risk-to-reward of 1-to-1, with a 1.78 profit factor.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #7
  • Mar 25, 2021 4:09am Mar 25, 2021 4:09am
Normally when a trend is identified, it is almost near the end.
How you overcome this ??

Thanks.
  • #8
  • Mar 25, 2021 4:49am Mar 25, 2021 4:49am
Quoting Ah-Ong
Normally when a trend is identified, it is almost near the end. How you overcome this ?? Thanks.
Hi fellow South-east Asian trader,,
Good question, although it's too vague but I'll try my best.

So if you didn't know yet, I trade based on the Daily chart only.
I don't do top down analysis (checking multiple timeframes before entering a trade), because I find it rather troublesome.

Why would I want to analyze 3 timeframes to get the same results as if I do it in just 1 timeframe? But I digress.


Because I don't understand your question completely, I'll guess what you are trying to ask and answer them all:
1. How do I identify a trend?
2. How do I identify a dying trend?
3. What do I do at the end of a trend?

answers:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 824c2a271c7a6927be536e2d3c618bbe.png Size: 25 KB

this one is a perfect example,

1. has been a DOWN TREND until it BROKE the LOWER HIGH (white line)
after the break, AUDUSD then becomes a NEW UP-TREND


2. recently AUDUSD made a new high but it pulls-back too deep (yellow line)
this indicates a DYING UP-TREND. I wouldn't do anything at this phase.


3. if AUDUSD breaks Higher Low (red line) then it signals me that this is a NEW DOWN-TREND

Hope this answers your question.


to add:
I also look at the 'strength' of AUD pairs and USD pairs.

recently USD has been strong, and AUD has been doing nothing.

I wouldn't consider shorting this pair, I'll look for other pairs which are strong on one side and weak on the other. (e.g. NZDUSD)

If you were to ask how do I examine the 'strength'
I simply open the respective charts and identify their trend (whether it is goin up or down or sideways, this should only take no longer than 20 seconds to identify).

I don't expect beginner traders to understand this yet, but in time, remember that I made this thread and come back to it.


You also might ask: how do I identify HH,HL,LH,LL ?
this one is 100% discretionary, this is where experience will pay. Only identify those which are significant enough. I hope this answers your questions.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #9
  • Mar 25, 2021 7:10am Mar 25, 2021 7:10am
Quoting remonpilip
just follow the fucking trend and you'll be hella profitable. (this is not an exaggeration) risk 2% max of your capital. you only have 1 of 2 choices, win rate or risk-reward? I chose the former, as I love to win, my avg. rr is 1-to-1 any entry methods is okay, but I prefer breakouts. find a good exit strategy, I exit whenever there is a Daily chart Pin-bar. and yes I only trade the Daily timeframe, much more profitable. People who thinks that they have to trade everyday are suckers. (losing trader) edit: the goal here is to be a consistently profitable...
Can you increase font size? I am visually impaired.
  • #10
  • Mar 25, 2021 1:28pm Mar 25, 2021 1:28pm
Since you trade daily trends, these trends can last over several weeks. Do you pay attention to swaps?
  • #11
  • Mar 25, 2021 6:39pm Mar 25, 2021 6:39pm
u can use fractal break and Orderblock ideas in this straetgy as well,becaue fractal break will show break of structure as well to confirm the trend
  • #12
  • Mar 25, 2021 9:32pm Mar 25, 2021 9:32pm
Quoting kofix11
Since you trade daily trends, these trends can last over several weeks. Do you pay attention to swaps?
SWAPS DOESN'T HURT AS MUCH AS YOU THINK IT DOES.

IGNORANCE/DENIAL HURTS MUCH MORE.

I held a 1 month worth of position and my swap was just -1.58$
Note: I was trading a $10k account with 2% risk per trade.
2nd Note: Not all Swaps are negative, some swaps can give you money instead of taking it from you.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #13
  • Mar 25, 2021 9:38pm Mar 25, 2021 9:38pm
Quoting T4Trade
u can use fractal break and Orderblock ideas in this straetgy as well,becaue fractal break will show break of structure as well to confirm the trend
Listen here you ICT freak.

ENTRIES DOESN'T MATTER, EVEN WITH RANDOM ENTRIES YOU CAN BE PROFITABLE.
(read: Tom Basso Coin Toss Experiment)

The more you spend time on entries, the more consistent of a loser you are.
(believe me I'd been there for 2 depressing years)

I've never met even 1 ICT & it's derivatives (e.g. BTMM, RTM, Hanzo, etc.) trader that can give me a 6-months worth of portfolio.

Instead of entries, learn how to identify the trend correctly.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #14
  • Apr 5, 2021 5:34am Apr 5, 2021 5:34am
Hi Remonpilip,
First I'm very interested and agree 100% with your presentation !

Just a little problem ...Could you please elaborate about the TREND and more precisely when you say : "recently AUDUSD made a new high but it pulls-back too deep (yellow line)"

I must confess I don't quite understand.

Thanks in advance,

Cordially.

BBF
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #15
  • Apr 5, 2021 6:46am Apr 5, 2021 6:46am
Market moves from level to level. The more you accept this point, the more your your trading will go over in a stable status.

All these concepts coexist because humans do not believe in such simple facts.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #16
  • Apr 5, 2021 12:01pm Apr 5, 2021 12:01pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20210405-185912.jpg Size: 528 KB


... Continued picture
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20210405-185939.jpg Size: 521 KB


If you have wait long enough, a good trade will the result.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #17
  • Mar 19, 2024 2:02am Mar 19, 2024 2:02am
Please try to use this EA

It so good.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MFX.ex4   91 KB | 214 downloads
  • #18
  • Mar 23, 2024 11:41am Mar 23, 2024 11:41am
Quoting sarawootch
Please try to use this EA It so good. {file}
Can I see the history, what timeframe and best pairs?
  • #19
  • Apr 29, 2024 8:54pm Apr 29, 2024 8:54pm
Quoting Techwizard
{quote} Can I see the history, what timeframe and best pairs?

MIFX.ex4, who has used it?, and what are the results?
  • #20
  • Apr 30, 2024 1:50pm Apr 30, 2024 1:50pm
This is actually true, most of the folks are lost, my favorite way to detect trend is MA200. No matter which time frame you use, just attach MA200 and you are good to go.
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