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The hidden numbers of forex

  • #21
  • Mar 19, 2021 10:26am Mar 19, 2021 10:26am
Quoting blob
What do I get in return for revealing these secrets? Crucial Point Forex Secret 3+9+3+3+9+1+3 96952 66956 153952 31 31 32 25 4 4 5 7 {image} {image} {image}

I had an interesting discovery on this one

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post12916506
  • #22
  • Edited 6:48pm Mar 19, 2021 5:01pm | Edited 6:48pm
I mean the following in a positive way for the retail trader, and this thread. When I worked as a senior trader/associate partner @ a Hedge Fund, the 'Quants' and 'Algos' (or as we the traders called them - 'they who have never shaved' lol,) were always busy with this type of stuff and loved it, but they never added what we added to the bottom line of the annual accounts. Their conclusions at the annual report stage were always along the lines of 'there is randomness in patterns, and patterns in randomness,' and this after seemingly unlimited resources were afforded to them. (It played into their own sense of genuine intellectual curiosity, but also somehow into theirs' and the senior partners' sense [who fostered it in a 'grail' like quest] that there was indeed a hidden numerical key/code to be found and exploited, they just hadn't found it yet, but by god - they were going to, and be first to do so!) I think they got all Black-Scholes on us and could see that Nobel prize lol! [and look what happened to them re LTCM lol!) So, for the retail trader unless they stumble across something (which they would be mad to share on an open forum if they take their trading career seriously,) they probably lack the resources to do so and are better employed getting to grips with either Fundie or Technical Analysis and developing an edge from it.

I think also that a lot of what we as humans do naturally runs, counter-intuitive to what we have to do as traders and this lack of a 'reason' or 'pattern' or 'code' that can be found (or at least it's ability to remain well hidden!) sits uncomfortably with us. In the end though, comfortable or not, and without endless time (as a key and probably the most important resource) you actually have to make some damn money from your trading career, unless it is truly just an academic exercise. You have to get over it and find an edge elsewhere.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #23
  • Mar 20, 2021 5:39am Mar 20, 2021 5:39am
Quoting tradeforlife
{quote} I had an interesting discovery on this one https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post12916506
Hi tradeforlife, Have you been able to discover more from CP's thread?
  • #24
  • Edited 1:34pm Mar 20, 2021 1:17pm | Edited 1:34pm
None of us here know (or less likely, are willing to share here) whether there is a ' secret code/hidden numbers ' (to use the thread starter's description,) in fx trading that can be exploited for profit. Similarly, we do not know the combined total amount of resources be them man-hours, computing, financial, and other resources that have been put into finding such by governments, and/or central banks, and/or institutions, and/or individuals, over time, but we can probably guess that this has been considerable to say the least. What can we reasonably conclude from this?

a. That there is no 'secret code/hidden numbers' in fx or any other asset class/form of trading

-or that-

b. There is but the discoverer is keeping it a closely guarded secret and is profiting from it, (or indeed didn't profit from the discovery.)

-or that-

c. There is, but it is still secret/well hidden/has been impossible to discover thus far with the sum of all human knowledge/resources that have been applied to it to this point in time.

Now, if trading is about anything it is about probability, so without empirical evidence of whether a, b, or c above is actually true, what does our gut feeling (for want of a better phrase) say about the probability of a, b, or c. above? Well, the answer to most cognitive, educated, thinking, logical human beings would be that a. is most probable, arguably followed in decreasing order by c, then b.

Just think about this for a moment if there indeed was a 'secret code/hidden numbers' in trading and it had been discovered and made widely known, it would result in the collapse of the financial system as there would at any one point only be buyers or sellers all acting from the same source analysis/info and a market/markets need both to exist at the same time to function properly, and by so doing serve the wider 'real' economy. (Whether financial markets do or don't, and to what extent is a whole other/wider discussion point/thread!)

Also, if you conclude that greater minds and resources than our own have already tried to discover the same and that point a. is the more probable outcome, then in terms of just probability what are the chances? Very low - zero would have to be the answer and if these were the odds re a trade you were about to take - you wouldn't touch it with a shitty stick!

I don't know for sure the answer to the above, but I strongly fall on the side of point a. I do however know the following to be true; One answer to achieving consistent, reliable, long-term profitability in forex trading (or any other kind of trading) is actually no secret at all. It revolves around finding an empirically proven edge using proven and known analysis techniques, over a very large sample of trades in the market conditions/ time frames or periods you wish to trade it in, then optimizing your risk and money management, and personal psychological framework to it. Just from a probability (not guarantee) of success point of view, traders would be better focused on that.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #25
  • Mar 20, 2021 3:49pm Mar 20, 2021 3:49pm
Quoting Headland
Just think about this for a moment
We live in interesting times. The moment you use the words "intelligent/intelligence or idiot", people get offended.
The Human Intelligence is a wide range of Spectrum. You can divide the whole spectrum into 4 simple categories:

1) Educated Intelligent
2) Educated Dummy (Educated Idiot)
3) Uneducated Intelligent
4) Uneducated Dummy (Uneducated Idiot)

I've been a lurker on this forum for many years (actually since from the beginning of FF). I've seen many people come an go.
The world population has very few Intelligent people, let alone very limited Geniuses. The rest of the population are your Educated/Uneducated Dummies.

CP is a genius. He eloquently and beautifully put it simply;
"The Majors moves an average of 120pips daily. Why aren't you able to capture 10pips of it daily?" ~CrucialPoint

What happened next, were Educated Dummies presented that it varies between 70-100pips on average.
Their need "to be right" surpassed and outweighed the most important "crucial" part; To understand the heart of the premise.

And CP's premise was this:
"The market moves big enough daily, that capturing a small portion of it daily, is not even an excuse that you cannot perform or cannot argue."
"The market moves big enough weekly, monthly, yearly, that capturing a small portion of it is not an excuse."
If CP was here (and knowing his subtle antics), he might rephrase the question, "You have 1000 gazelles in front of you and you don't know how to catch 1 of them?"

What follows next are a list of why you cannot capture 10pips out of a 70pip range, and the subtle hint in the mist air of "please tell me how."
CP's beautiful simple question is a measurement of anyone's intelligent to answer such a simple concept.
Nobody bothered to answer that question, or better yet; Nobody who solved it, bothered to shared it.

Because it is this simple; You win this game by taking money from other traders. Revealing how to do that, is utter stupidity. Because you simply defeated the purpose of why you are trading in the first place; To take money from other traders.
  • #26
  • Edited 7:47pm Mar 20, 2021 7:16pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting blob
{quote} '''' The moment you use the words "intelligent/intelligence or idiot", people get offended.....
I didn't use the words 'intelligent, 'intelligence' or 'idiot' in either of my 2 posts above, and as you quoted me in your post I assume you are referring to my last post? Or perhaps you mean 'one.' not specifically me? I did though refer to 'intellectual curiosity' in my first post. Whatever, I am not sure where that leaves either of us re your 1-4 categories above lol!

Re the trader 'CP' that you also quote - I have no idea who he is, I haven't come across any of his stuff here, so I have no idea whether he is a genius or not, but the statements you reference from him seem, on the face of it simplistic, but I have no idea as to the context so I will reserve judgment.

I do agree with your last point effectively referencing that trading is a zero-sum game and that by revealing how we make money runs counter to that fact, and possibly counter-productive to our own chances of taking money from our competitors in whichever market (s) that we operate in.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Apologies to the Thread starter as this is not getting you any nearer to the reason you started the thread. Good Luck in that endeavor. He asks in his first post;

'..What can we find in just the sequence of quote digits printed on a chart, or not on a chart? Is there really any form of "secret" that can be discovered?..'

So, even though each bid/ask quote has meaning in the sense that (in theory) it is the sum of the total orders executed in a market to that point in time and giving rise to that next bid/ask quote, the corollary of it is seemingly random, (until someone proves otherwise,) but that is surely the greater probability? So in this sense, and notwithstanding the fact that there apparently are exploitable patterns in randomness, I doubt that there is a formula or anything of use to find that may result in a trading edge from a deeper investigation into just the per say bid/ask quote sequence of any market, available to us, given the likely level of resources we would have available to employ in such a pursuit.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #27
  • Edited 6:07am Mar 21, 2021 5:27am | Edited 6:07am
Quoting blob
{quote} How about an intelligent data scientist and not an average one like yourself? Seriously bro, my 17 year old nephew plots frequency distribution graphs. Its nothing complicated, its as complicated as copy and paste. So I don't know what's up with you showing me the frequency distribution, and by doing so, was a rookie move on your part. I mean, you can plot the frequency distribution of Breakouts, Inside bars, Candlestick patterns, Sessions, News, how many times you poop and fart, etc... And the fact that your presenting me this, is telling...
Lol! ToDo list:
1. Post meaningless shit
2. Call others rookies
3. You are magnificent!
Pathetic, in fact.

Nothing special about 4,5,7,44,57 or any other sequence of digits in first 100k digits of Pi. As already pointed out.

Occurrence of {10, 11, ..., 99} is normally distributed across first 100k digits. (exclude {00, 01, ..., 09})
Expectation is 10^5/100 = 1000 cases.
St.dev ~34

NO WAY!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: seq.png Size: 21 KB
By the way 77 occurs 1100 times! Maybe this is your secret number?

Now lets test how this data fits against Normal distribution with parameters μ = 1000, σ = 34
Here are two quantile plots, one for Pi digits and one with (pseudo)randomly generated data for same distribution.
p-value is 0.65 for one and 0.82 for another.
I hope you can figure out which one is which
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: randdist.png Size: 16 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pidist.png Size: 16 KB

We are done with this.
What is your point about cellular automata. Or just random video?
Air force
  • #28
  • Mar 21, 2021 11:30am Mar 21, 2021 11:30am
I am not asking about ancient hidden secrets and stuff. I am talking about hidden mathematical relationships in only the price of any market and any instrument. Relationships that one cannot know by just analyzing on a price chart, drawing some stuff and making predictions. No volumes, no naked eye visual interpretation and coulda woulda shoulda. No such things "it looks like it will go up... or down" that most people talk. In theory there should be some very precise calculation that idenetifies you an entry and exit that are profitable, substantial and often enough to be considered successful on this field. I don't think that the existence of such relatinship is going to "ruin" the market in some way or cease it to exist. The existence of a great talent in music havent destroyed the music industry, there are some smaller talents and many different levels in the hierarchy, including some poor musician that cannot pay the basic bills. I get the concept of "competition". It only means that those in the know are keeping their mouth shut for the most part. If you have a decent know-how in a busines field, there are not many reasons for which you would like to share it. But if no one was sharing any knowhow ever, there wouldn't be anyone with knowhow to share, we wouldnt even go to first grade because there also are our teachers that are sharing at a basic level some human knowledge.. And exactly I think that the hidden mathematical meaning is a human knowledge, that belongs to us, it is not the secret souce of any single individual. In any business, people that become good will take some success that could have been taken by others that have worse performance. There will be also someone betting and losing the house etc.. There are a lot of factors and variation in our world and I am sure that someone has reasons to share. Because it is not only about money. From a certain point money is not very relevant. Those that have made it must be addicted to the proccess and not only the end result. And I don't think that proccess ever "ends'". Since it is evolutionary. Such people must be out of the box thinkers thats for sure, maybe innovators as a stronger word and certainly not easily influenced by the low vibrations that govern most of the public sources that we have. I genuinely believe that from time to time such people pass on FF and leave any valuable piece. Yes I do not expect that someone will just come and give years of hard research, work weekends, late nights, strained eyes etc...
Thanks to everyone that participated here up to now. If I become even 1% better with the material read here, I am forever grateful.
  • #29
  • Edited 2:33pm Mar 21, 2021 1:27pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting feline207
..... I am talking about hidden mathematical relationships in only the price of any market and any instrument. Relationships that one cannot know by just analyzing on a price chart, drawing some stuff and making predictions. ....
I understand what it is that you are seeking, (I think,!) You are seeking some kind of mathematical formula that has been derived from the bid/ask quotes of a trading instrument stretching howsoever far back, and that can point to profitable trading opportunities in the future on that instrument. To this point in time your search for this has not resulted in such and you like the rest of us are unaware if it has for anyone else. If it has it has not been published/made widely available. You are essentially looking for a repeating pattern (for want of a better phrase,) in the bid/ask quote sequence of a trading instrument that when it appears again can lead to a profit over any given sample of times it appears again in the future. (Ie there will probably be losing trades and winning trades but so long as the optimum risk/reward ratios are applied and achieved there will be a profit over any future sample so long as the pattern holds up and history keeps repeating.

I'll leave aside why you are going down this route (that is seemingly low in probability of achieving your goal via the route) when there are other proven analysis techniques that you could derive an edge from and thus have a higher probability of achieving your goal which is presumably to profit from your trading endeavors. Ie: It seems to me that although your goal may indeed be profit, you have conflated it with an intellectual quest too.

Whatever, let me deal with points you make in your last post;

a. You say 'In theory there should be some very precise calculation that identifies you an entry and exit that are profitable, substantial and often enough to be considered successful in this field' It doesn't always follow - so not necessarily.

b. You say ' I don't think that the existence of such relationship is going to "ruin" the market in some way or cease it to exist....' and you go on to give a music based analogy. But if all the musicians were to play the same music on the same instrument then it would kill the music industry and this is what would happen to the financial markets if sharing the knowledge of a successful trading edge with all market participants.

c. You then talk about the altruistic nature/motivation of sharing knowledge and use the example of teachers. Yes knowledge is shared in the classroom and other places in the normal course of human discourse, on a daily basis. But, firstly teachers get paid for sharing that knowledge, do you think they'd turn up to class day in and day out if they did not? And, secondly, you have to distinguish between 'general knowledge' that may or may not already have been widely shared (like the stuff teachers share,) and what is commercially sensitive 'intellectual property' that has a direct $ value, discovered at cost, for a profit motive.

d. You then go on to further discuss the altruistic motivation of sharing knowledge and wrongly assume/state that the discovery of such mathematical knowledge belongs to mankind. This is wholly naive, it belongs to the discoverer not least because the pursuit of it will have been done from a commercial/for-profit motive. That is like saying that when a company that has invested great deals of money in R&D develops a new groundbreaking product they should effectively just give it to their competitors, and/or just give it away free gratis.

The great advances in medicine and technology resulting from greater learning and knowledge - since the start of the industrial revolution have come from the profit motive and society's ability to reward that motive sufficiently before in the example of medicine, allowing drugs to become generic.

I'm afraid I cannot help you in your quest in the way you have outlined it and I doubt that anyone else can/will either in a meaningful way that will get you anywhere near to you achieving the goal of profit via the route you have chosen. If I were you, given what you have posted about your journey so far '...taking a lot from you and not just money...' I would seek a higher probability of success route to achieving the goal of profit from your trading endeavours, with knowledge that has already been shared and proven to deliver such when used in such a way to derive a trading edge from it's principles.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #30
  • Mar 21, 2021 1:59pm Mar 21, 2021 1:59pm
I started out with Gann. In short, the worst possible start. I believed that there are secret codes and numbers. I found that there are not. It came to me when I bought Gann's master stock and commodity course. Both are free today. Gann waited for higher highs and lows to verify his predictions. This told me everything. I realized that Gann was selling courses using planets and the square of nine, square of 12, square of 52, the bible, and numerology, but he traded on support and resistance. It took me nearly a decade going down that very deep rabbit hole. Gann's materials at that time were very expensive for me, but I believed he had something we did not. What he had was marketing and tape reading skills.

Not an expert by any stretch, but I can make money when I am motivated to do so, and hidden numbers have nothing to do with it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #31
  • Mar 21, 2021 2:36pm Mar 21, 2021 2:36pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} I understand what it is that you are seeking, (I think,!) You are seeking some kind of mathematical formula that has been derived from the bid/ask quotes of a trading instrument stretching howsoever far back, and that can point to profitable trading opportunities in the future on that instrument. To this point in time your search for this has not resulted in such and you like the rest of us are unaware if it has for anyone else. If it has it has not been published/made widely available. You are essentially looking for a repeating pattern...
Since from a broader perspective humanity is a collective mind, i believe that any knowledge that has been or is about to be known, at the end will be at disposal of large part of the population, whoever is open and capable to comprehend. It is my point of view. There are different scales in the market. I dont think that a trader which trades last on average 5minutes is often in direct competition with the trader with average holding time of 3 days. Could be on only some ocasions. So i think my anolgies is not that bad. There is ennough abundance for everyone, the fact that not everyone is abundant is due to many things not only competition. Someone will fail and that is natural. For example, i think that if you give the same money and technology on how to produce a certain product, and you give that to a 100 people, you will get 100 different results. And i think that is the beauty of life. There is contrast and variety. Thanks for your thoughts you are quite detailed but i also find a contradiction in your advice. If you say that my theoretical formula is never going to be shared because it is profitable, and that formula is essentialy a 'method' to trade, then what are those 'proven' other methods, how are they proven and why are they available, and why haven't they ruined the markets based on your assumptions. I respect your opinion but i hope that you accept therr is a possibility that you are being wrong. Ther4 are a lot of things that me and you probably don't know yet, a lot of motives and a lot of calculations. There is always something that can surprise us again
  • #32
  • Mar 21, 2021 3:30pm Mar 21, 2021 3:30pm
Quoting jmn5611
I started out with Gann. In short, the worst possible start. I believed that there are secret codes and numbers. I found that there are not. It came to me when I bought Gann's master stock and commodity course. Both are free today. Gann waited for higher highs and lows to verify his predictions. This told me everything. I realized that Gann was selling courses using planets and the square of nine, square of 12, square of 52, the bible, and numerology, but he traded on support and resistance. It took me nearly a decade going down that very deep rabbit...
I traveled down that same rabbit hole, but climbed out before it caved in on me. The Square of Nine has some merit, but you said it, the Highs & Lows/Support & Resistance was his true method. Your last line in this post is the same for me. I can make the money when I want, but don't have the need to trade everyday. Some time is devoted to reading & researching what other traders are doing. Traders past & present. I gained much from reading all of Crucial Points post I could find & copy.

Best of trades to you.
  • #33
  • Mar 21, 2021 3:41pm Mar 21, 2021 3:41pm
Quoting blob
{quote} We live in interesting times. The moment you use the words "intelligent/intelligence or idiot", people get offended. The Human Intelligence is a wide range of Spectrum. You can divide the whole spectrum into 4 simple categories: 1) Educated Intelligent 2) Educated Dummy (Educated Idiot) 3) Uneducated Intelligent 4) Uneducated Dummy (Uneducated Idiot) I've been a lurker on this forum for many years (actually since from the beginning of FF). I've seen many people come an go. The world population has very few Intelligent people, let alone very...
Absolutely correct. CP has very few peers on this forum. The last 2 lines. CP shared more than most know & those that got something from his post are dead silent on what they discovered. There is one thing he said that turned on the light for me & truly enhanced my skills. Thank you CRUCIAL POINT if your still with us.

Outstanding post my friend!
  • #34
  • Edited 7:00pm Mar 21, 2021 5:46pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} Since from a broader perspective humanity is a collective mind....
I'll make this my last contribution to your thread because I don't want to derail it with off-topic stuff that doesn't get you any closer to the route you wish to discuss in this thread, as expressed in your 1st post and others. (Ie whether an edge exists and can be shared from analysing the bid/ask quote sequence (s) of a trading instrument (s.)

There is no contradiction in what I am saying because what you are looking for is a specific edge from what is currently limited shared knowledge (ie whether a formula exists that would provide for such from the bid/ask quote sequence(s) of a trading instrument,) -whereas- what I was talking about in my last post was shared knowledge (ie other analysis methods - for example tech analysis) from which others' have been able to derive/design/discover their own disparate trading edges, based upon it. Unlike for example tech analysis, there is not a lot more that can be said about the bid/ask quote sequence of a trading instrument other than that it is a sequence of numbers, that appear seemingly random and may indeed be random. There may or may not be a repeating pattern (s) in it that gives rise to a trading edge but as a subject it does not have the component parts that say Tech analysis has by comparison, (eg, Trend, Support/Resistance, Price action, Momentum, Volatility, Volume etc..)

It is not the knowledge of the subject per say that could potentially break the market traded, it is an edge derived from it if sufficient market participants/volume traded, trades the same edge. For eg we all know about Technical Analysis (That is 'the knowledge' in this scenario) and there are many edges derived from/based upon it. Although there are edges derived from it discussed in this forum, I doubt that any serious trader would make available their own empirically proven trading edge (based on tech analysis as the example) for the reasons I detail in my post above. If everyone traded the same edge (based on tech analysis to continue with this example,) then the market would break. The reason the market has not broken down from people sharing tech analysis or indeed fundamental analysis ideas (as another analysis type example) is that there are a whole number of different trading edges derived from these types of analyses, buying and selling @ different times not all @ the same time. I do however agree with you that in practice even if you gave everyone the same empirically proven edge - it is unlikely the market would stop functioning properly because human nature would intervene and ensure that people get greedy/make mistakes/get bored/look for something else/bastardise it/alter it etc etc... but this doesn't alter the fact that such intellectual property has a $ value and is regarded as commercially sensitive. (As I regard my own egde. For me - this isn't a hobby it is what I do to earn a living.)

By the way the above should give you an idea as to the potential quality of edges discussed here. (This is not to say that such discussion lacks merit - it doesn't, it's valuable, but there probably isn't an empirically proven edge posted here that has been successfully replicated (or even empirically proven,) by others (or at least very few relative to the size of the so-called 'edges' posted here) to long-term profit.

You said in one of your posts above '..maybe price should be converted into another language and then analyzed? Can we just analyze the price quotes or do we have to convert them...' and the bid/ask quotes can be converted into another language (s) '- Ie The bid/ask quote of a market is a function of the supply and demand that exists within that market and changes until both are satisfied/filled/in balance - in reality they rarely are, and not for long (in liquid markets) because new supply and demand (orders) hit the market all the time - ie pending orders get hit and new market orders and pending orders enter the market. So Price action/candlesticks, Time & Sales/Price ladder, Volume for example are all the result of this and are effectively different languages for the same thing - supply and demand, - all of which have been proven to be the basis of profitable trading edges. If you have had so little success pursuing the discovery/devising of an edge from just the bid/ask quotes sequence (s) of a trading instrument, why have you not used a different language, such as one or more of the examples I refer to, that would give you a greater chance of achieving this?

And by the way, I can always accept being wrong, or a difference of opinion. As you correctly allude to - it's what makes the world so interesting.

Continued Good Luck in your search.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #35
  • Mar 22, 2021 1:34pm Mar 22, 2021 1:34pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} I'll make this my last contribution to your thread because I don't want to derail it with off-topic stuff that doesn't get you any closer to the route you wish to discuss in this thread, as expressed in your 1st post and others. (Ie whether an edge exists and can be shared from analysing the bid/ask quote sequence (s) of a trading instrument (s.) There is no contradiction in what I am saying because what you are looking for is a specific edge from what is currently limited shared knowledge (ie whether a formula exists that would provide...
Thank you. I carefully read your advice. You have important points that I would keep. I want to ask you just the following - in your eyes how do you imagine the market to break? Can you describe it. Because I have only seen it go up or go down, haven't yet made any crack on my screen lol (cannot say the same thing for my bank account unfortunately)
  • #36
  • Mar 22, 2021 3:30pm Mar 22, 2021 3:30pm
Quoting Headland
............I the 'Quants' and 'Algos' (or as we the traders called them - 'they who have never shaved' lol,) were always busy with this type of stuff and loved it, but they never added what we added to the bottom line of the annual accounts. Their conclusions at the annual report stage were always along the lines of 'there is randomness in patterns, and patterns in randomness,' and this after seemingly unlimited resources were afforded to them............
Dear Headland
Do you ever use "the who never shaved" provided tools and data analysis? to gain some time? Everyone in a trading firm has his role.
Stop using OANDA!You will lose money,they stop PRACTICE accnts, kept SPIKES
  • #37
  • Edited 8:35pm Mar 22, 2021 8:15pm | Edited 8:35pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} Thank you. I carefully read your advice. You have important points that I would keep. I want to ask you just the following - in your eyes how do you imagine the market to break? Can you describe it? Because I have only seen it go up or go down, haven't yet made any crack on my screen lol (cannot say the same thing for my bank account unfortunately)
Hi, I don't imagine in reality/practice that a market/trading instrument could 'break' (and by that I mean stop functioning correctly,) for this reason. Ie if sufficient market participants traded sufficient volume using the same trading edge, then lets say they were buying, the market would not have sufficient sell orders to match/fill those buy orders so price would effectively stop at a level until sufficient sell orders came in to put the bids/ask equation 'in balance.' We have seen this though for a different reason when the world credit/interbank markets froze during the 2008 financial crisis, ie banks stopped lending to each other fearful that they would not be paid back. Ie both bids and offers froze up.

Quoting rtopa43
{quote} Dear Headland Do you ever use "the who never shaved" provided tools and data analysis? to gain some time? Everyone in a trading firm has his role.
Hi, I don't really understand the question. The research dept of that particular hedge fund was where it happened and yes we used them a lot for our own trading. I was effectively on the fundamental/global macro themes and we would express our ideas/opportunities as we saw them in the instruments that were most appropriate over whatsoever time scale we had decided the theme would play out. Because I was most proficient in Tech Analysis (You would be surprised then how un-proficient funds were in TA,) it was generally left to me to 'time the entries' and build the positions in whatever market (s) / instrument (s) we had decided. This is a simplification but I'm sure you get the idea.

I agree that everyone within a trading firm has a role. Our argument ('the traders') was that we bought in the profit whilst they ('those who had never shaved') lost some of it on what we considered were ill -conceived vanity projects built around quantitative and other analyses lol.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #38
  • Mar 22, 2021 10:49pm Mar 22, 2021 10:49pm
In my opinion trying to find patterns that are not directly related to trading might be a little discouraging because there isn't any set pattern per say that you could spot on the charts everyday as you sit on your desk after grabbing your morning coffee, If you try really hard you could even find pattern in 2 crackheads fighting for who's gonna sleep in the dumpster tonight, but the thing is forex is nothing but orders, market orders and pending orders and the conviction of traders who brought those orders in the market, and I feel it would be hard to find a pattern in that conviction, if you study price action and can spot moves with a probabilistic mindset and manage your risk accordingly, I'm sure you can make a living from forex.
  • #39
  • Mar 23, 2021 11:24am Mar 23, 2021 11:24am
What about direction, have you thought about it? In fact you can find that a number may visited the most of the times in a day, week, etc. but in which direction? I mean, what will come first 1.18000, 1.20000.

I hope you get the point. You need much more to trade than simple numbers.
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  • #40
  • Mar 24, 2021 12:23pm Mar 24, 2021 12:23pm
Quoting feline207
I am pretty sure most successful traders are very selective with what they share on forums like ours. Nevertheless does somene like to talk about the hidden numbers in the fx market. Have you come up with with a formula that changed your game radically? What can we find if we dig deep into the numbers, how to get there, what to look for? I am asking only about formulas based on the bid/ask of a single instrument. No currency meters, tick or future volumes, fundamental values etc.. What can we find in just the sequence of quote digits printed on...
I dont think there are any secret codes.
Many people have tried to find patterns, cycles, etc, to no real advantage.
Gann, Fibonacci, Delta, Sloman, etc.
If you squint enough, there appear to be patterns, but not necessarily tradeable.

If you check out youtube about Jim Simons, its an eye-opener.
He ran one of the most successful trading funds, and all his guys were maths and engineering PhDs.
He relates how edges appear, work for a bit, then fade, while other edges come to the fore.
You have to be constantly on the look out for when your edge is fading, and be constantly developing new methods.

I would think that opening session ranges, Tokyo, Europe and New York, are a good start, because you want to trade some finance-driven momentum move, rather than some mid-day random noise.

Hope you add some of your own thoughts of what direction you want to research this.
It is an endlessly fascinating subject.
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