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Real or Algo

  • #1,481
  • Mar 19, 2021 11:53am Mar 19, 2021 11:53am
Quoting BWilliam
I have written tons of posts on this thread. No point repeat myself which I have been doing which is a waste of my time. My purpose is singular. There are plenty of losers on FF. My posts are directed at them. My final message is a hard one to swallow. For losers, If you're a loser, you can't find or haven't found any method in the few thousand threads on FF, the sensible and logical decision is to stop trading altogether. Read my posts to understand the reason why. If you're looking for consistent long term success generated by real alpha it's...
We are already spending hours and ready for sure, if you can guide us through to be consistent long term would be helpful and will be thankful learning from your experience, else we are already on our own! your message was not very hard though and your are sweet mostly
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,482
  • Mar 19, 2021 11:53am Mar 19, 2021 11:53am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} the discussion has move from real/algo, or what method we trade but i guess we reaching the climax as moving towards finding the edge, in the end everyone wants to be profitable
Unfortunately Team Algo has providde not a single bit of evidence/ proof of a Single Algo in action in the Forex Market.
Who Owns it ?
Where is it ?
Who benefits ?

Even BW has siad categorically that there is no single Algo, the market is Real.

Stating that TA FA & PA does not work, is garbage etc. or that 90-95% are losers is the proof, is quite frankly laughable evidence.
Present your facts not conjecture.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,483
  • Mar 19, 2021 11:56am Mar 19, 2021 11:56am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Unfortunately Team Algo has providde not a single bit of evidence/ proof of a Single Algo in action in the Forex Market. Who Owns it ? Where is it ? Who benefits ? Even BW has siad categorically that there is no single Algo, the market is Real. Stating that TA FA & PA does not work, is garbage etc. or that 90-95% are losers is the proof, is quite frankly laughable evidence. Present your facts not conjecture.
doesnt matter who wins team real or algo, lets find the edge.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,484
  • Edited 6:30pm Mar 19, 2021 12:01pm | Edited 6:30pm
Quoting bilal1947
doesnt matter who wins team real or algo, lets find the edge.
Hi Bilal, I wrote the 3 stumbling blocks to overcome in this post specially for those members who are serious in their pursuit. This is for you guys. When you understand why its so important to appreciate the role how these 3 stumbling blocks play in everyone of us traders you take a giant step in your forex trading journey. The journey into the deeper realm towards the frontier of this business begins here.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13443170

Cheers
BW

Ps Remember to always ask this question, "where sit the edge?"
The goal is to objectively quantify this edge.
It can be done.

Inserted Video
Know what you trade
  • #1,485
  • Mar 19, 2021 12:03pm Mar 19, 2021 12:03pm
Either ways whether the market is real or algo it tends to get heavily manipulated daily by brokers wicks/fake moves, B-books, Calendar scheduled news, articles to frame trades mind, and several tweets anyways.

we all must look for the edge which can make us consistent long term only then one can survive else all talks.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,486
  • Mar 19, 2021 12:05pm Mar 19, 2021 12:05pm
My parting post.
Busy stacking NQ, ready for shorts.
Attached Image
on a postive roll...
  • #1,487
  • Edited 12:41pm Mar 19, 2021 12:06pm | Edited 12:41pm
[quote=BWilliam;13460485]

I have written tons of posts on this thread. Agree
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: STATS for this thread.png Size: 45 KB



No point repeat myself which I have been doing that is a waste of my time. Our time as well

My purpose is singular. There are plenty of losers on FF. My posts are directed at them. Change of tack now, from all TA FA is garbage

My final message is a hard one to swallow. For losers, If you're a loser, you can't find or haven't found any method in the few thousand threads on FF it's normal, there's nothing wrong with you. The sensible and logical decision is to stop trading altogether. Agree

Read my posts to understand the reason why. Still not explained in my view apart form all the losers you keep mentioning & garbage. Pls dont repaet yourself

If you're looking for consistent long term success generated by real alpha it's much more difficult than you can ever imagine. If you decide to undertake this pursuit, be prepared to pay the high cost where success is not guaranteed.

It is hard work, but if you work at it, maybe you will find success, others have shown it can be done.

I know it's not a sweet nice message. But it's the hard truth that must be told. To the profitable traders who post on here. Congrats. Cheers BW

I think anyone who thinks it is easy will get brought down to earth. Message understood.

Now if you can say TA FA & PA is garbage in my opinion, (BW) then we will all agree. I always say Agree to Disagree.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,488
  • Mar 19, 2021 1:50pm Mar 19, 2021 1:50pm
BWilliam,

For what its worth I'm in the Algo camp as some are saying, but I'm not an Algo trader in the true sense of the word & like you said you are not very good at explaining things, I'm not either. At least in writing anyway. Algo's are being use in the market, but are they controlling every move? Not sure. On the bottom left of this page take a look at the Growing Natural Gas Algo for FX located over @ mql.5.com. It appears Algo's are on the market for the retail traders. Good oh Google is an amazing tool. I think I recall seeing one for MT4 & MT 5. Maybe wrong on that. I want to thank you for your continued posting on this thought provoking thread that our friend Moody started up. Not sure what your doing is your trading, but I see you as a cut above most on these forums in the Factory. Like Crucial Point, I think there is more behind your trading curtain than your sharing & that certainly is your business. When you mentioned mathematics (I Believe) in one of your post, that got my attention as trading is about math & not a chart full of indicators. I am not against indicators & I have tried them all & have a few custom ones, but at the end of the day they will fail to some degree. After reading all of CP's posting about three times I did discover some of what I am doing now, but the rest I was already doing before discovering Crucial Point's post. What I do is all mathematical in nature.

I know you could share more with the readers of this forum, but it would serve NO Purpose but to bring on more ridicule from some. I could say much more on the subject of Algo's & trading, but enough has been said. The retail trader will never beat computer drive trading models, but you can go with their flow.

Thank you again BWilliam my friend & best wishes in the times to come.

TimeTells, I enjoy your post & think you are far more advanced in your trading than you let on. Just my view & nothing more. Best wishes to you my friend.

Everyone else.......trade safe & stay safe........the ALGO'S are watching.
  • #1,489
  • Edited 4:07pm Mar 19, 2021 3:41pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Unfortunately Team Algo has providde not a single bit of evidence/ proof of a Single Algo in action in the Forex Market. Who Owns it ? Where is it ? Who benefits ? Even BW has siad categorically that there is no single Algo, the market is Real. Stating that TA FA & PA does not work, is garbage etc. or that 90-95% are losers is the proof, is quite frankly laughable evidence. Present your facts not conjecture.
I deleted the question. It doesnt matter anyway.

Cheers,
B

PS just to be clear, it was only a question. Nothing offensive or similar.
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #1,490
  • Mar 19, 2021 3:44pm Mar 19, 2021 3:44pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I think I was border line at a ban, because I am contradicting the narrative here. That is the OP 's preogative, he can take away his toys at anytime. As a moderator, should allow people to voice their opinion even if unpalatable. Subtly was asked if I was leaving as I had said my piece - anyway that's how it came across to me. Debate has switched away from Real or Algo, after so much evidence of Real has been presented, buy as yet none from the Algo side. We are going into another phase next. Random or Algo ?

Just to be clear, the debate can go random but that would be for someone else on a new thread. Not on this one.
If memory serves I mentioned random when posting some charts.... I was being facetious!
The random camp can go explore that one elsewhere.
  • #1,491
  • Mar 19, 2021 3:49pm Mar 19, 2021 3:49pm
I think I have managed to see a great deal of this thread, and it has clearly moved on from the basic real vs algo question. Always amazes me the arguments charged with emotion across this forum, almost like ego's (or Algo's) have overwhelmed the art of constructive and interesting discussion. If some of these traders are trading as well as they claim, I would expect them to be able to manage their emotions more effectively. To have an opinion is one thing, to represent it objectively is always worthwhile because you don't know what information you will receive in return, it might change your opinion, you might learn something or indeed it might just reaffirm your beliefs.

I believe the whole market is driven by real people, but I would caveat that by saying they engage Algo's at specific times with specific objectives. Those objectives depend on the part of the market that those people represent, Market Makers, Institutions etc. So I personally believe that if these guys see a cluster of retail stops etc at certain location and have an objective (ie. they need to be long or short in a certain range), they switch their algo on until the position or objective is met. There may be some HFT algo's out there, but I really don't know.

Either way, I also agree that it is not necessarily that relevant to the way you need to trade. The patterns in the market are repeatable, over and over again, whether or not they are generated by humans, or human derived algo's, the art of trading is to recognise the behaviour and try and find an edge.

I could be wrong of course about the algo's, but I don't believe I am wrong about trading in response to the market behaviour.
  • #1,492
  • Mar 19, 2021 4:05pm Mar 19, 2021 4:05pm
Well....I think I am done here as well. Moody's original intent led to some great reading, and it was a good mental exercise for me. I however don't have anything else to add to this conversation. I think Team Real has provided some solid facts - and yet there is still a lingering question for me that never got answered to my satisfaction - which is why any three pairs will remain in sync , thus removing the arbitrage situation. GEfx and Shabs did their best to to try to explain this to me....maybe I'm just too old to grasp.

Either way, thanks guys, this was fun, even when it did get heated. Best of luck on all your trading endevors

-Almo
  • #1,493
  • Mar 19, 2021 4:13pm Mar 19, 2021 4:13pm
Quoting GEfx
Look at this! No longer in jail! I have been a defender of the real side in this discussion on "Real vs Algo". Apparently, those of us on Team Real are responsible for defending FA, TA, and PA. I'm a believer in the following: "Those who can, do. Those who can't, criticize". With that in mind, I offer pages 35 to 42 in my trading journal ( there are 2 of them, so get to the right one). It includes, to the best of my ability, a few contemporaneous trading examples, decision making, TA, FA, PA, charts, and everything else that is involved in how I...
I would prefer for the thread to remain civil.
Having seen some good ones destroyed by ‘overzealous’ associates I think a day in the cooler can provide a time of rest and reflection. Of course this is FF so that time most likely was spent thinking, how do I get the ‘moderating bar steward back’....

I don’t recall seeing you coming under attack, if I had, then I would have joined in but I missed the opportunity!

If anyone has taken flack, that’s BW.... who has his own ‘personality’ but has provided, as have you, some thought provoking posts.

I like to look at it like the House of Commons.... we have the loony left (Random Camp) Centre left (Real but manipulated) Centre (mixture of unsure) Centre right (Algo at extremes) Far right (Algo one Source)

The House of Commons works, and has done for a very long time.
It provides balance to proceedings with speaker of the house providing order....
In this thread I think we have a good balance of the house.

Taking out for one moment the Real or Algo debate there have been some amazing contributions on just general trading, opening a fresh thread may not bring in the same level or lose some contributors so my preference would be to keep the thread running.

Andy.
  • #1,494
  • Mar 19, 2021 4:28pm Mar 19, 2021 4:28pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} I would prefer for the thread to remain civil. Having seen some good ones destroyed by ‘overzealous’ associates I think a day in the cooler can provide a time of rest and reflection. Of course this is FF so that time most likely was spent thinking, how do I get the ‘moderating bar steward back’.... I don’t recall seeing you coming under attack, if I had, then I would have joined in but I missed the opportunity! If anyone has taken flack, that’s BW.... who has his own ‘personality’ but has provided, as have you, some thought provoking posts....
You got me politically as well
  • #1,495
  • Mar 19, 2021 4:37pm Mar 19, 2021 4:37pm
Quoting almo
Well....I think I am done here as well. Moody's original intent led to some great reading, and it was a good mental exercise for me. I however don't have anything else to add to this conversation. I think Team Real has provided some solid facts - and yet there is still a lingering question for me that never got answered to my satisfaction - which is why any three pairs will remain in sync , thus removing the arbitrage situation. GEfx and Shabs did their best to to try to explain this to me....maybe I'm just too old to grasp. Either way, thanks guys,...
See you next week..
  • #1,496
  • Mar 19, 2021 6:12pm Mar 19, 2021 6:12pm
Quoting almo
Well....I think I am done here as well. Moody's original intent led to some great reading, and it was a good mental exercise for me. I however don't have anything else to add to this conversation. I think Team Real has provided some solid facts - and yet there is still a lingering question for me that never got answered to my satisfaction - which is why any three pairs will remain in sync , thus removing the arbitrage situation. GEfx and Shabs did their best to to try to explain this to me....maybe I'm just too old to grasp. Either way, thanks guys,...
EURUSD is a major pair (traded pair) the price of EURUSD is not derived from other pairs.
GBPUSD is a major pair (traded pair) the price of GBPUSD is not derived from other pairs.
AUDUSD is a major pair (traded pair) the price of AUDUSD is not derived from other pairs.
NZDUSD is a major pair (traded pair) the price of NZDUSD is not derived from other pairs.
USDJPY is a major pair (traded pair) the price of USDJPY is not derived from other pairs.
USDCAD is a major pair (traded pair) the price of USDCAD is not derived from other pairs.
USDCHF is a major pair (traded pair) the price of USDCHF is not derived from other pairs.

The other 21 pairs are calculated from the 7 major pairs above.

For example:

EURJPY = EURUSD * USDJPY
EURGBP = EURUSD / GBPUSD
EURAUD = EURUSD / AUDUSD

And so on.

For your earlier post here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13452837

If you understand what I wrote above, it should be obvious why:

EU = EJ/UJ
UJ= EJ/EU
EJ = UJ*EU

EJ is calculated from EU and UJ. Therefore you can calculate the price of EU by dividing EJ and UJ and you can calculate the price of UJ by dividing EJ and EU.
  • #1,497
  • Mar 19, 2021 7:31pm Mar 19, 2021 7:31pm
Quoting almo
Well....I think I am done here as well. Moody's original intent led to some great reading, and it was a good mental exercise for me. I however don't have anything else to add to this conversation. I think Team Real has provided some solid facts - and yet there is still a lingering question for me that never got answered to my satisfaction - which is why any three pairs will remain in sync , thus removing the arbitrage situation. GEfx and Shabs did their best to to try to explain this to me....maybe I'm just too old to grasp. Either way, thanks guys,...
I guess we've failed you...it not you, it's us!

I'm not exactly sure which three pairs you are talking about. Let me pull back a bit, and please don't be offended if this is too basic. Three of the majors make up nearly 50% of all trading: E$, G$, and $J. These three tend to move in unison, although they may not at times. They move this way because of the common currency--the dollar.

As for derived pairs like the EJ or the GA, they move in relation to the PA of either or both of the pairs. For example, if the G$ and the A$ are rising, and if the proportional rise in the A$ exceeds the G$, you will see the GA fall. If the G$ rises proportionally faster than the A$, the GA will rise. The current price of the GA is always exactly the value you get when you take the G$ and divide it by the A$. It is impossible to achieve an arbitrage situation with a derived pair, because it's value is a product of the value of the other two pairs. These cross pairs are not bank traded, meaning, for example, you can't go to a trading desk with yen and trade them for euros. You have to take the yen to the yen trading desk, convert them to dollars, then go to the euro desk to convert dollars to euro. This is the nature of the dollar's reserve currency status.

Hope this helps understand why cross pairs are so closely moving with their base pairs.

Edit: oops I just saw Dmh's post. Looks like we're doubled teaming you.
  • #1,498
  • Mar 19, 2021 7:34pm Mar 19, 2021 7:34pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I guess we've failed you...it not you, it's us!
Sometimes it is better to admit you don't understand something, than to BS your way through a thread with little knowledge.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,499
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:01pm Mar 19, 2021 8:01pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
Sometimes it is better to admit you don't understand something, than to BS your way through a thread with little knowledge.


Hi Shabs,

I wouldn't be too hard on yourself or GEfx. You guys did a pretty fair job imo of presenting a case.




all the best to all, it was sure some fun between the trades

...
  • #1,500
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:04pm Mar 19, 2021 8:04pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Shabs, I wouldn't be too hard on yourself or GEfx. You guys did a pretty fair job imo of presenting a case. all the best to all, it was sure some fun between the trades ...
Which one are you Team Algo on the fence - You were in good company with BW Oh Yeah....................
It never gets easier, you just get better
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