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  • #421
  • Mar 15, 2021 8:42am Mar 15, 2021 8:42am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Good job. Yes, the key is the holding of that area (white and blue arrows). These can be tricky because it takes a little time for the average of price to stabilize and start moving higher, so the key is seeing if there is a potential floor.
Sure. Got it.
  • #422
  • Mar 15, 2021 8:44am Mar 15, 2021 8:44am
Quoting Rearden
15 March No Bias down move The Price tested Thursday high(didnt poke higher) and turned to a down move on Friday, came back above the S50 and closed below it . Today, the market opened below the MA and Pivot. The direction of MA is not yet down(range?). Looks like, on Friday, the price reached the area from where it went up on Thursday expanding the range down. I entered straight away at the pivot area, I have placed another entry from where it broke down on Friday and one higher up at the white line . The target is at the Friday low(low of the...
the price came till 1917 and moved higher. I exited the higher position for 36 pips. The price then came down and danced around 1915 and then started moving up. I closed the lower entry at 16 pips. My target was at 1914. so it is 52 pips to start the week.
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  • #423
  • Edited 6:11pm Mar 15, 2021 5:58pm | Edited 6:11pm
16 March
No Bias Down move

The price closed below the S50 and Pivot . But the price has shrunk to a narrow range yesterday from the broader range that was created on Friday. I have observed that in ranges the price goes from edges to edges. Even though the direction of MA is to downside, until it holds above the 1990, nothing changes and that is a big risk. So I have placed a PO at the top of the smaller range instead of the pivot and MA. I will see if it reacts from there and comes down. My target will be today's open. If it didnt break the MA lower, I will exit at the MA as well.
The price may react from the Pivot and MA and go down. But that is ok. I will wait for it to retrace higher and am willing to miss the move from pivot and MA due to R:R
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  • #424
  • Mar 16, 2021 5:56pm Mar 16, 2021 5:56pm
17 March
No Bias down move
The Market ranged for while and then went up to the Weekly Open +February low(Yellow Line) at the 1948 and then came down. My order was higher to reduce the risk and was not triggered. I see that the weekly open is a good area to keep an eye on. In this case it coincides with other areas like previous monthly low etc. I am ok to miss it because The price had held above the MA and also the direction of MA was beginning to turn to the upside.

Today, the price has already broken out of that small range and close below. It had make a good move with momentum to the downside. The price closed below the MA and pivot and the direction of the MA is down. I entered one position straight away(Like the one I took week before last) and placed another PO at the MA. White line is at the 1966. But I will close the trades if it holds above the S50.
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  • #425
  • Mar 17, 2021 5:01pm Mar 17, 2021 5:01pm
18 March No Bias UP move

I had cancelled my PO when I saw price respecting the MA and coming down. The price went up when I was sleeping. Since there was no close or hold above the S50 I didnt close my trade before I went to bed. When I woke up to check where price is, it was already above the white line due to the FOMC news. This happened the first time during exercise and was unfortunate and its ok. I would have placed a Stop loss order on my full account before going to sleep.

Having said that, the location of trade is also important and something to take note. Unlike Monday, Yesterday the price was close to the previous swing lows and also it attempted multiple times to break lower and gave higher lows. Its a No Bias week and therefore no directional advantage. The S50 came closer to price.

Today, the price has reached the last Friday high area. There was no poke of the high or anything like that. The MA is turning to the upside. I have placed two orders. The price looks like it has reached the edges of a bigger channel. From previous instances, I observed that for a continued move up, it will be better if price atleast pokes those highs before coming down . If the price fails at those highs before coming down, it will be better to close the trades and wait for a new signal from the lower areas.
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  • #426
  • Mar 18, 2021 3:50am Mar 18, 2021 3:50am
Quoting Rearden
18 March No Bias UP move I had cancelled my PO when I saw price respecting the MA and coming down. The price went up when I was sleeping. Since there was no close or hold above the S50 I didnt close my trade before I went to bed. When I woke up to check where price is, it was already above the white line due to the FOMC news. This happened the first time during exercise and was unfortunate and its ok. I would have placed a Stop loss order on my full account before going to sleep. Having said that, the location of trade is also important and something...
Update
Cancelled both Pending orders for long. Waiting by the sidelines
  • #427
  • Mar 18, 2021 6:15pm Mar 18, 2021 6:15pm
19 March
No Bias Up move

The price came back and closed below the S50. As per previous observations it is not a good idea to long when price is below the S50 until it has showed that it want to go up.
Looking back at the trade on Wednesday, I feel that the main take away is, its ok not be putting orders for a trade every day. The price came down on Tuesday and reached the swing lows. The MA is nearing the price and it is not a directional week. I have seen this before. So even though its a down move, don't take the short and save capital. Or when you see that the price is refusing to go down and making HLs exit the trade before going to sleep.
But.... I thought the price is ranging... It ranged for a while on Monday and early Tuesday and then went to up 1950(Weekly Open) and broke down...What if that action repeats?..... I think the answer is location. I have to see the difference in location where early week trades had room to come down and this was already at the low.... it gave clue(HLs)..... So exit....

Today, Its Friday. the price ranging around the previous month low. I will see if the price comes down to the 1893 area or recapture the MA and pivot before I enter any position.
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  • #428
  • Mar 19, 2021 12:22pm Mar 19, 2021 12:22pm
Nice journal
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #429
  • Mar 19, 2021 4:07pm Mar 19, 2021 4:07pm
Quoting Rearden
18 March No Bias UP move I had cancelled my PO when I saw price respecting the MA and coming down. The price went up when I was sleeping. Since there was no close or hold above the S50 I didnt close my trade before I went to bed. When I woke up to check where price is, it was already above the white line due to the FOMC news. This happened the first time during exercise and was unfortunate and its ok. I would have placed a Stop loss order on my full account before going to sleep. Having said that, the location of trade is also important and something...
I believe this is the first time since we started the exercise that we had a news spike take us out. Might be wrong, but I believe so. Anyway, we were due for one and surprised it took this long.

So, the question becomes, if you have a good start to the week, is it worth gambling it away to FOMC? Maybe, maybe not. Possibly more dangerous since we are in the No Bias environment we are in.

Not sure your higher lows really tell you much, don't put too much stock in it, but you can certainly watch each FOMC and see if such a pattern might repeat or do something different and become a coin flip.

Step back from it for a second and ask yourself what environment creates fairly predictable trading? Is it pre-news, or something else. Where are you making money versus losing money.
Be bullish on you.
  • #430
  • Mar 19, 2021 10:49pm Mar 19, 2021 10:49pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I believe this is the first time since we started the exercise that we had a news spike take us out. Might be wrong, but I believe so. Anyway, we were due for one and surprised it took this long. So, the question becomes, if you have a good start to the week, is it worth gambling it away to FOMC? Maybe, maybe not. Possibly more dangerous since we are in the No Bias environment we are in. Not sure your higher lows really tell you much, don't put too much stock in it, but you can certainly watch each FOMC and see if such a pattern might repeat...
Yes G. First time. Noted your comments on the HL and also observing when am I making money vs losing money. I didn't notice the FOMC news in the calendar because the news release was at 2 AM my time (Next day) and the FF calendar showed the Tuesday calendar (Until 12 midnight)and it missed my attention. It was a cheap lesson to take note of major upcoming news for the next few days or weeks to avoid this next time.
  • #431
  • Edited 9:59am Mar 21, 2021 9:43am | Edited 9:59am
Weekly summary 15 March to 19 March

The market was within a bigger range around feb low this week. The week opened with a down move . One Tuesday, Price tested the weekly open area and came down. The price reached where it was on 09 and 10 March. The price ranged and then one of the main thing to take note this week was to pay attention to factors which can really affect the movement in price like news. It is good that it happened now. It will help me to pay attention in future and that too what are the news coming up and to observe things like, what happens if I am in standard setups as per the exercises when the news is released, did it go in the intended direction, did it turn etc. I will be observing these.
Another key learning was my view on HH and HL. From G's comments and also what i saw when going through charts after reading that comment is... It is better not to be very micro focused on each lows that is made when price is ranging. I can wait and take into account swings which are significant... which has some distance between them.

One good thing I did this week was to identify the bigger range later part of the week and avoid taking long positions even though it was an up move.
I was also observing that the price has not made any pokes to upside and also reached the top of the range and it was a nice short back down. But since the rule doesn't allow that, I will not take it. I will work on perfecting my technical and mental skill to execute the basic trades first.

Mentally, I was ok. I didn't feel sad or disappointed when the market went up when I was short. I feel the progress in my trading and the way I view charts. But I also feel that there is way to go and few things have to gel together. I cannot precisely tell what those things are but I believe time will reveal as my skills improve and exercise progresses.
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  • #432
  • Mar 21, 2021 6:04pm Mar 21, 2021 6:04pm
22 March
No Bias Up move
The market opened with a 30+pip gap but didn't stay lower. The white line is at the 1881. The price is going up from the bottom of the channel. The price is below the S50. I will wait to see if the white line holds the price(was it a false break to the downside?)to take a long or if it hold below the white line and then I start to look for shorts.
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  • #433
  • Mar 22, 2021 5:26pm Mar 22, 2021 5:26pm
23 March
No bias up move

MY analysis yesterday was to take long if the white line holds. The white line held but then I thought its below the S50 and also the price is coming down from the Friday close area. I waited for the price to show me it wants to go up by recapturing of S50. Today I have entered a position straight away since the price has went up with good momentum and that too from the low. Also, I am placing a PO at the pivot and MA.

Looking back at yesterday, I am thinking that it was a good idea to take a long from the 1881 area because the price wont give a lower risk area than that. I will keep this in mind and see how it plays out from next time by taking a position as close to white line.
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  • #434
  • Mar 23, 2021 10:51am Mar 23, 2021 10:51am
Quoting Rearden
23 March No bias up move MY analysis yesterday was to take long if the white line holds. The white line held but then I thought its below the S50 and also the price is coming down from the Friday close area. I waited for the price to show me it wants to go up by recapturing of S50. Today I have entered a position straight away since the price has went up with good momentum and that too from the low. Also, I am placing a PO at the pivot and MA. Looking back at yesterday, I am thinking that it was a good idea to take a long from the 1881 area because...
the price came down and I exited when it closed below the MA. I held it longer because i thought ... ok it is going up from the low and recaptured the S50.
On 09th and 10th March I had missed to notice that the price recaptured the S50 and failed to capitalize the price move to the upside.
Today, the price went up to test the highs but failed.It was also near the previous week open.
I feel I have to standarise (like... I will exit if the price didnt break the previous swing high on a retest after a two bar pullback)the retest attempts and then exit early on to reduce the loss or totally not take the trade when price fails to break.

Now, The price is in a down move and I will look for place to short the market.
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  • #435
  • Mar 23, 2021 5:38pm Mar 23, 2021 5:38pm
24 March :No Bias down move

The price reached the Feb low area and also last week open around 1950 yesterday and came down. Even though the price is in an up move I have to take note of these elements. The right approach this week was to take a #1 on Monday and then exit my PO when I see that the price is not breaking higher.

Today, the price has reached the previous swing low on 09 March and also 24 November 2020. The price has come all the way down without much retrace. I have seen this kind of days before the exercise. Since the price has reached the previous low, I am not going to short straight away. I will place PO at the places where it had pauses when it came down. These were areas where it had 1 bar pull back. But the pivot and MA is also near to these areas. I expect price to reach these areas and turn to the downside. If the price hold above the S50 I will exit because the price then might be trading the higher time frame range. I have placed the target for the higher position at the current low.
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  • #436
  • Mar 24, 2021 5:34pm Mar 24, 2021 5:34pm
25 March
No Bias down move
The market opens below the pivot and MA. Still within the area of previous low from where it went up in November 2020. The price came further down and closed below the low of 09 March. My white line comes down to 1850. I will enter two standard position and see how it works out. The MA is to the downside. I have placed the TP at S1. Close above the 1850 will make it an up move.
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  • #437
  • Mar 25, 2021 5:31pm Mar 25, 2021 5:31pm
26 March
No Bias Down Move
The price has retraced to the Pivot and run further down. The price hit my PO at the pivot and the target that I had placed. My target was small. When the price is below S50 and also in a down move, I could have extended it further to the downside.
The price didn't retrace much this week.
Yesterday, price has poked the swing to the down side. Today I don't see that the price has poked to the downside. It has respected the lows. It has also reached the 1770 area in daily chart from where it went up. I was concerned with the 1800 BRN ystr as a place from which the price has went up. But I see that it was not a significant price level.
Today I will be on the sidelines and see how the week closes and come back next week. I see that I have a lot of room to perfect my execution.
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  • #438
  • Mar 28, 2021 6:46am Mar 28, 2021 6:46am
Weekly Summary 22 March to 26 March

Monday opened with a gap below my white line and quickly came up . It offered a low risk #1 entry. But the Gap had confused me a bit and I waited longer to take the entry. Also, the price was below the S50. But I will take note of this and take a #1 entry when I get it with the least amount of risk.
Tuesday, the price had closed above the white line and was in Up move. The price was at the February low along with the 1950 area. This trade was similar to the one I took on 03 March where it turned from a down move to an Up move and then reacted at the BRN and came down. The price failed to break higher and came all the way down. It had made a good move to the downside where it provided an opportunity to short as per the new #1 entries that I am trying. I didn't take it but it worked out.
I managed to grab 15 pips on Thursday, and on Friday it made a HL and closed above the pivot.
This week, Price had given two standard entries, One on Monday with the least risk as possible. Second on Thursday when it reacted from the pivot. My Tuesday trade was mainly because of the missed trade that happened on Monday . Looking at the daily chart, it shows clearly why it was better not to take that long.

Emotional: I have to be aware of these kind of nuances that happen and then be ok with the missed trades and not take it when the price has already done what it was supposed to do. I have to burn to the brain that it is ok to miss trades and look how the market story and context have changed. Only if I am ok to miss trades and get used with small loses, only then will I be able to recognize these changes in story and context of the market structure. Otherwise I will be worried about the missed/loss trade. Once I have mastered this and seeing the chart as it is, that is an opportunity to trade in the opposite direction. The basic rules are there to guide.
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  • #439
  • Mar 28, 2021 6:02pm Mar 28, 2021 6:02pm
29 March
No Bias- Down move
The market opened between the S50 and pivot. The market has been making HLs. The market has been moving in one direction last week. The MA is pointing down. The price has not poked the last low and will it start ranging for sometime before it makes its next move? Since it made HLs and didnt poke the previous lows, I will plae a short PO as close to the white line. If it goes up, I will take a small loss. If it comes down, I will take profit at 1775 area.
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  • #440
  • Mar 29, 2021 6:10pm Mar 29, 2021 6:10pm
30 March

No Bias down move
The price closed back below the MA and pivot. there was a trade from Pivot to S1 offering 1:1 Risk to reward. The price has slightly poked the swing low of 25th march. But the price is at the low and I cant expect the price to break down and enter short because of the Bad RR. The MA is going sideways. The risk of entering short now is that it is at the bottom of the channel and the white line is at the 1817. I will see if the price respects the weekly open area and gives a PA at the S50 to short.
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