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EURUSD only

  • #128,941
  • Mar 19, 2021 5:10am Mar 19, 2021 5:10am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Guys, So far so good. I am at the beginning of a short cycle and added more trades on the retrace today with all trades locked in. Important for a daily close below 1.1900. Weekly sup 1 at 1.18604 and of course the mid-round number at 1.18500. I am hoping momentum can carry me through. We shall see. Trade safe, Cheers. {image}
Hi Guys,
Short confirmation signals from a 4Hr perspective and sell trade entered with a 15 pip stop loss. I could enter some more on the retrace. Difficult trading conditions. Let's see where this takes us.
Trade safe,
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #128,942
  • Mar 19, 2021 5:12am Mar 19, 2021 5:12am
Bulls just warming up...buy limit@ 1.19040 activated...tp @ 1.19450...
  • #128,943
  • Mar 19, 2021 5:14am Mar 19, 2021 5:14am
Quoting fx1114
Good bye bulls...
Yes it’s over. Exited my positions with losses. There were signals circa 1920s that This wasn’t going to recover. Hoping to learn from. Nevertheless I have to own it.
hope u were on the short side.
  • #128,944
  • Mar 19, 2021 5:23am Mar 19, 2021 5:23am
It would appear that Powell and the FOMC blind-sided the unwary and those that believe in technical analysis only. Lines and rules are made to be broken. In trading you have to use all the tools at your disposal and not forgetting early morning meditation, then you should be okay!
  • #128,945
  • Edited 6:47am Mar 19, 2021 6:30am | Edited 6:47am
Quoting Kyuu
1.18945 entry order triggered only long attempt, 10 pip stop, if we drop by more than 6 pips from here and I see no bounce I'll look to break even on a retrace
Long @1.18945 , moved my stop to 1.1890 (4.5 pip risk).

1.1890 for me is the potential low for the day. If it somehow breaks, I will wait for a relatively large pullback before shorting, no rush for me.

This is the first time I managed to follow all my rules near perfectly (even though I could've entered long at 1.1892) that I will still feel great losing this trade, even though I'm very confident in it. Potential 100+ pip reward for basically an initial 5-10 pip risk.

Entering too early/Patience/Minimizing my risk has been my biggest struggle. All week I've been getting stopped by the spread before it moves in my direction because I was slightly too early/didn't wait for one of my requirements due to impatience. This trade is the first time where I successfully waited for everything to line up perfectly and entered at price I was very happy with.

Hopefully today we can magically break this weeks high or low
  • #128,946
  • Mar 19, 2021 6:47am Mar 19, 2021 6:47am
Quoting Kyuu
{quote} Long @1.18945 , moved my stop to 1.1890 (4.5 pip risk). 1.1890 for me is the potential low for the day. If it somehow breaks, I will wait for a relatively large pullback before shorting, no rush for me. This is the first time I managed to follow all my rules near perfectly (even though I could've entered long at 1.1892) that I will still feel great losing this trade even though I'm very confident in it. Potential 100+ pip reward for basically a 5-10 pip risk. Hopefully today we can magically break this weeks high or low
There are probably millions of retailer stops at 1882, and more at 1835, "sitting ducks" (mine is the one below).
"Robber Banks" can clearly see them, and find them surely "irresistible".Wonder if they will make the extra effort to run them.

If it wasn´t for stop hunting, I would be rich, it is very hard, and/or expensive to avoid them.
I shorted this morning with profit. Still have a long from yesterday and a buy order at 82 for my 6-hour system.
Stay safe and healthy.
  • #128,947
  • Edited 7:46am Mar 19, 2021 7:02am | Edited 7:46am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} There are probably millions of retailer stops at 1882, and more at 1835, "sitting ducks" (mine is the one below). "Robber Banks" can clearly see them, and find them surely "irresistible".Wonder if they will make the extra effort to run them. If it wasn´t for stop hunting, I would be rich, it is very hard, and/or expensive to avoid them. I shorted this morning with profit. Still have a long from yesterday and a buy order at 82 for my 6-hour system....
I disagree, I think this was the stop hunted area. I attached my 4H chart I posted yesterday before I slept. I wrote about how I expected a bounce at the area where support and the broken resistance as support lined up. Confluence is usually said to be a good thing (I agree with that, but for flow specifically), but this was also a warning to me. I expected a bounce but didn't trade it because I expected that level to to break just to hunt the stops of all the people who entered at that level.

That doesn't happen all the time, but the fact I waited patiently and executed my plan perfectly 15 hours after all that happened is why I'm happy with this trade. Will there be another stop hunt at my level now that I entered? I personally don't think so, but it definitely can happen (although my long bias would switch if we broke the low here by any more than 5 pips..).

Could you explain why the price may go to 1882 specifically? I'm expecting the 4H to close above the support line IF we are actually going up, so I don't think there's time but I also don't know where the number comes from.

edit: Moved my SL back to @1.189 since we're approaching the 4H close and will consider moving it BE only if the 4H closes above 1.1905, almost broke my rule of don't mess with my stop. If we don't close above, I may just take profit and sideline... All I need is 1.19804 to break otherwise bears win
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  • #128,948
  • Mar 19, 2021 7:37am Mar 19, 2021 7:37am
Quoting exact
EUR/USD LEVEL 1.1894 I have buy limit SL 10pips TP 52pips https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...r-super-levels {image}
Nice reaction on the level
SL moved to -5pips
TP + 52pips
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13458635
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  • #128,949
  • Mar 19, 2021 7:53am Mar 19, 2021 7:53am
Based on H4: Speaking from bullish perspective, this is a highly patience demanding price action so far.. I can guess how annoying it must have been for some bullish members.. But don't lose hopes.. All I have seen so far is extreme bull pressure.. That's why bears couldn't go far.. Once this phase is over we could see a new wave up that goes at least back to retest 1.1950.. Time will tell..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #128,950
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:02am Mar 19, 2021 8:02am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on H4: Speaking from bullish perspective, this is a highly patience demanding price action so far.. I can guess how annoying it must have been for some bullish members.. But don't lose hopes.. All I have seen so far is extreme bull pressure.. That's why bears couldn't go far.. Once this phase is over we could see a new wave up that goes at least back to retest 1.1950.. Time will tell.. {image}
When Ata begins to write the market moves. Hahaha thanks Ata, always waiting for your advice. The robber banks are lurking again, at this time it is good to have a clear mind. Greetings
  • #128,951
  • Edited 8:23am Mar 19, 2021 8:09am | Edited 8:23am
I closed my trade break even when the 4H closed below, but then I noticed I may have drawn my support line wrong

The photo now is the updated support line (for me) that needed to break, I went long again but I ended up basically getting close to the same entry as I did when I exited because I reacted too late. Last long entry for me, meets the same rules as before but my entry is worse than I want it to be. Goodluck to anyone that is still long, this will be the only one long attempt for me (I don't count the previous since it broke even )

Edit: It worries me that there were so many support levels and broken resistance as support that lined up "perfectly", it feels like it's just baiting more and more buyers... I'm glad I didn't keep buying at every possible bounce level and hoping this is the final one
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  • #128,952
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:17am Mar 19, 2021 8:17am
I am waiting for M15 candles to settle above 1.1896 again.. Once I see that I will look for buy opportunities..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #128,953
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:32am Mar 19, 2021 8:32am
Time to say goodbye to 1.20.
Say hello to 1.17 maybe it's early.
  • #128,954
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:35am Mar 19, 2021 8:35am
Quoting Traderview
Time to say goodbye to 1.20. Say hello to 1.17 maybe it's early.
the trend is your friend. Intraday swings in my opinion is only noise.
  • #128,955
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:47am Mar 19, 2021 8:47am
Quoting Traderview
Time to say goodbye to 1.20. Say hello to 1.17 maybe it's early.
I agree, got stopped and am sidelines for now unless I see a pattern that will tell me to re-enter long. I shouldn't have impulse traded that 4h open, broke my own rules out of panic. If there's no pattern, I'll look to short on a big pullback or maybe wait until next week.
  • #128,956
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:55am Mar 19, 2021 8:55am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on H4: Speaking from bullish perspective, this is a highly patience demanding price action so far.. I can guess how annoying it must have been for some bullish members.. But don't lose hopes.. All I have seen so far is extreme bull pressure.. That's why bears couldn't go far.. Once this phase is over we could see a new wave up that goes at least back to retest 1.1950.. Time will tell.. {image}
If we go below 1.1871, does your bias become bearish?
  • #128,957
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:58am Mar 19, 2021 8:58am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
I am waiting for M15 candles to settle above 1.1896 again.. Once I see that I will look for buy opportunities..
When two of your lwma´s in H1 say short why are you searching longs ?
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Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #128,958
  • Mar 19, 2021 9:00am Mar 19, 2021 9:00am
Quoting Kyuu
{quote} If we go below 1.1871, does your bias become bearish?
If daily support 1.1858/64 area gets violated I can switch to bearish.. Otherwise I still hope for a wave c up towards 1.2010 based on DAILY chart and wave count..

*The downside of my wave count is that if robber banks are secretly already done with the bullish correction by skipping the wave c it will hurt bulls like me.. But I ignore that scenario for now..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #128,959
  • Mar 19, 2021 9:03am Mar 19, 2021 9:03am
Quoting lucky1359
Yeah Getting same confirmations @ 78.6 - Monthyl Fibo @ 1.1871 and @ 61.8 - Weekly Fibo @ 1.1869 {image}
Thats why i say Fibo never Lies and Candles Respect the Fibo Levels.

Today is Friday and now EOD.

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Thanks & Regards
  • #128,960
  • Mar 19, 2021 9:07am Mar 19, 2021 9:07am
Quoting eurusd-thijs
{quote} When two of your lwma´s in H1 say short why are you searching longs ? {image}
I do sell based on M15 and H1.. no worries.. but we are at levels where I mainly chase a long order based on DAILY and H4 (i.e. based on a Gartley pattern or M pattern..)
Focus only on what truly matters!
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