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Real or Algo

  • #1,381
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:21am Mar 18, 2021 2:21am
Quoting Dmh
The last posts I see often the word ‘random’. Has this become a ‘random or non-random’ thread?

Hi Dmh,

I can't speak for Andy,

but I forgot to put the /sarc tag next to mine, sorry
  • #1,382
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:32am Mar 18, 2021 2:32am
Quoting swd
{quote}
Here is a theoretical explanation for your "stuff" on the chart.

Hi swd, great explanation cheers.

This is definately 'big' market work that you show (nothing imo is happening down here in retail to affect that action or behaviour, we are merely observers I reckon).

We DO get to play in their big world charts, but locked in our own secluded retail enclave (I am starting to think, not any algo or real thoughts on this, just our sum retail market).


For example, if our retail trades end up in a middleman LP (can I say man these days, sorry) then there is a good chance imo that ALL our trades, yep the whole lot of retail maybe, are being held "in aggregate" by those middle LPs with them assuming some retail will TP too early and some retail will close out for DD too late, so they could be, maybe, B-booking the whole of retail in-house. And only when their own middle-folk LP risk parameters are stretched, that they then feed that excess UP into IB or Tier. Do we see any trillions each day in our retail world. I have my doubts.

(But Im only surmising here, once more, and algo or not, or big B Book or not, it doesn;t affect the way I trade).

all the best again swd
  • #1,383
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:33am Mar 18, 2021 2:33am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Dmh, I can't speak for Andy, but I forgot to put the /sarc tag next to mine, sorry

Hi TT, I understand it. You think that it is not random and I think that the ‘real camp’ fully agrees with that.
  • #1,384
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:39am Mar 18, 2021 2:39am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} algo or not, or big B Book or not, it doesn;t affect the way I trade
We know it wants 1.1935 minimum on EURUSD. But not without a bit of "randomness" first eh.

All the best TT.
  • #1,385
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:44am Mar 18, 2021 2:44am
Quoting Dmh
The last posts I see often the word ‘random’. Has this become a ‘random or non-random’ thread? If that is the case then the algo camp and the real camp can fully agree, I guess. Here some TA garbage before the fact: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13456245

Thanks for the link, yep a weekly order block that price can and will react to/from.
I prefer it to be broken for the short but a buy to 50% retrace always worth keeping an eye on.

As for random, the charts that we see are so carefully controlled, nothing is left to chance.
Or at least that's my view. Of course most will disagree and that's fine. I'm over it to be honest.
  • #1,386
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:49am Mar 18, 2021 2:49am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} As for random, the charts that we see are so carefully controlled, nothing is left to chance. Or at least that's my view.
See my earlier post today. Markets are all smoke and mirrors but why persuade anyone to the contrary?

swd
  • #1,387
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:53am Mar 18, 2021 2:53am
Quoting swd
{quote} See my earlier post today. Markets are all smoke and mirrors but why persuade anyone to the contrary? swd
Why persuade...I'm not, I'm trying to look at how rather than why.
Perfectly coded Algo designed to entice traders to make the wrong decision ..I would say they were relatively successful.. again others will explain money creates the moves along with news... and that's fine. I just think it's too well controlled.
  • #1,388
  • Mar 18, 2021 3:03am Mar 18, 2021 3:03am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Thanks for the link, yep a weekly order block that price can and will react to/from. I prefer it to be broken for the short but a buy to 50% retrace always worth keeping an eye on. As for random, the charts that we see are so carefully controlled, nothing is left to chance. Or at least that's my view. Of course most will disagree and that's fine. I'm over it to be honest.
I agree that it is highly controlled. But I have no idea how.

GBPCAD, no idea if this one works out, but I know if I do this over and over it will be profitable in the end.
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  • #1,389
  • Mar 18, 2021 3:05am Mar 18, 2021 3:05am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Why persuade...I'm not, I'm trying to look at how rather than why. Perfectly coded Algo designed to entice traders to make the wrong decision ..I would say they were relatively successful.. again others will explain money creates the moves along with news... and that's fine. I just think it's too well controlled.
When you take out the technical stuff I mentioned, you will see the clear message underneath. It's left for the reader to see. However, we are at a crossroads for sure. A carefuly controlled algo can still be REAL, in the sense that someone designed it, sat down and coded it and released it onto the platforms. We are all fighting against it (or not) everyday, so it's real to traders and to most who don't see it.

The premise for the thread is now somewhat muddied in my eyes, there is never going to be a binary real or algo answer, it's too complicated and ingrained in peoples minds, and there is always the issue of catagorical proof. Provided one persons "method" works for them the debate is over, they can make money and don't concern themselves any deeper than that.

Perhaps there should never be an answer.....
  • #1,390
  • Mar 18, 2021 3:07am Mar 18, 2021 3:07am
Quoting swd
{quote} When you take out the technical stuff I mentioned, you will see the clear message underneath. It's left for the reader to see. However, we are at a crossroads for sure. A carefuly controlled algo can still be REAL, in the sense that someone designed it, sat down and coded it and released it onto the platforms. We are all fighting against it (or not) everyday, so it's real to traders and to most who don't see it. The premise for the thread is now somewhat muddied in my eyes, there is never going to be a binary real or algo answer, it's too...
I agree completely with what you have just said.
  • #1,391
  • Edited 3:26am Mar 18, 2021 3:14am | Edited 3:26am
Just watching NJ..., as Pete has rightfully said its topped out at significant structure, so longs will bail and shorts jumping in...potentially pushing price higher up to George target around 79.210 ... but who knows...!
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  • #1,392
  • Mar 18, 2021 3:31am Mar 18, 2021 3:31am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} I agree completely with what you have just said.
As a buddy of mine once said, "you can tell price wants to go to level xyz, it turns around and goes the opposite way..."

That's price, just an advertising mechanism....

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  • #1,393
  • Edited 2:26pm Mar 18, 2021 6:28am | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting moodybot
Lucky the market is random, otherwise might have got caught out...and that's just a few of them. I wonder who farted at 22:00 to create bullshit moves undercover of bullshit news.... At least TA/FA would have picked up the on the moves before they happened... Yes folks, its real.... such precision ..can only be money moving the charts....right? {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
I can't decide if this thread has become comical or simply sad. You are asking this question again with all the charts? REALLY? We've been over this, yet it still seems to amaze and/or confound you?

Also, has to subject matter now changed? Is the new, evolved title of this thread "Random or Algo"? Is the new notion that if the single algo is BS, then the market is random (which, I assume, is your version of real?)? Isn't this just a typical list of crap that helps explain a retail traders losses and failures? "It's not me, it's the (algo, my broker, market's randomness, etc)?

You've gone from interesting to pathetic. If I've misread something I'll delete this post. But my "Utter BS" alarm is ringing right now.

EDIT: And now that I've been banned from posting, I'll assume I missed nothing when making my comments above. Really, this is the post that you felt violated your standards? How embarrassing for you! This is the line not to cross? Best wishes to you and everyone who posted here. Good trading!

EDIT 2: I was going to comment on TT's chart from yesterday with the "left behind" and "gap" comments: I appreciate the observation and notes that yesterdays post-FOMC move squared up/"cleaned up" the positions above (very tradable move). Today's very predictable and tradable move looks like an effort to rescue some of the left behind shorts from yesterday, or at least an attempt to reach them! I'd go so far as to say that this is an indication that FA and TA have a roll to play in trading. Good trading!

EDIT 3: To my dear friend BWilliam, your true nature is finally shining through! I'm sure all that stuff you said about you knowing where the market is going before the market does, and all the stuff you said about being a failure and in despair, is just a runup to that last classy comment you made a few post down this page. Really, I hope you have nothing but success in your trading!

FINAL EDIT: I hope everyone finds something helpful in this thread. I thank Moodybot for starting it, and I hope my comments helped shed some light on the Forex and how it works. Long story short: when it comes to trading, the only boogeyman you have to fear is the one inside your head. Good trading and best wishes to you all.
  • #1,394
  • Mar 18, 2021 6:40am Mar 18, 2021 6:40am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I can't decide if this thread has become comical or simply sad. You are asking this question again with all the charts? REALLY? We've been over this, yet it still seems to amaze and/or confound you? Also, has to subject matter now changed? Is the new, evolved title of this thread "Random or Algo"? Is the new notion that if the single algo is BS, then the market is random (which, I assume, is your version of real?)? Isn't this just a typical list of crap that helps explain a retail traders losses and failures? "It's not me, it's the (algo,...
No problem .. reaction speaks a thousand words..
And let’s just see.
Just so you don’t get too confused, most definitely an Algo...
  • #1,395
  • Mar 18, 2021 6:42am Mar 18, 2021 6:42am
Quoting swd
{quote} Here is a theoretical explanation for your "stuff" on the chart. Not all matching engines are created equally. When a market is declining fast, how is it that a seller can still sell, if "someone" or "something" is taking the opposite side of their trade? There has to be a buyer somewhere in the system to provide the liquidity to allow you to sell. Doesn't matter who or what it is but your sell order has to be "matched" with a buyer. Let's assume that the buyer cannot just be retail losers. If they were, then a big player who wanted to buy...
Hi SWD

I see the real architecture is the player who controls one side of the order book.
Having control creates liquidity because not only do they now own the market - any new seller has to source their order directly from them.
Their was a perfect example tonight on GBPUSD - a cycle to destroy any sellers by applying multiple Long orders near a top to remove all opposition then suddenly applying a huge Sell order at 1.3993 at the tip of the wick to balance the order book.

They became be the only seller on GBPUSD - they become the liquidity and use their dominance to allow liquidity to manifest.

In essence - the one who controls one side of the order book is a creationist and the one that creates illusions.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,396
  • Mar 18, 2021 7:04am Mar 18, 2021 7:04am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi SWD I see the real architecture is the player who controls one side of the order book. Having control creates liquidity because not only do they now own the market - any new seller has to source their order directly from them. Their was a perfect example tonight on GBPUSD - a cycle to destroy any sellers by applying multiple Long orders near a top to remove all opposition then suddenly applying a huge Sell order at 1.3993 at the tip of the wick to balance the order book. They became be the only seller on GBPUSD - they become the liquidity...
Some great traders here who get it.
  • #1,397
  • Mar 18, 2021 7:49am Mar 18, 2021 7:49am
I screenshot every trade I make and put it in a folder because I make the same trades everyday. It becomes a little redundant though because I’m just looking at the same things over and over. Extreme, price trades from extreme, price then goes down back in the area of the extreme, if price doesn’t go below extreme then what. Same ole patterns everyday. Can’t say you see patterns but then will say but those patterns are random. Ummmm no the same patterns are happening everyday at the extremes. That’s not random it’s patterned behavior. If that makes sense this is what makes Forex, difference in opinions and the difference means one is going to win and one is going to lose looking at the same chart. So I trade and think what would a retail trader do and do the opposite. So far so good you guys have a great day
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  • #1,398
  • Edited 11:49am Mar 18, 2021 9:24am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting calebfx
However what is unacceptable and frankly your posts give me a headache, so what is unacceptable is you saying much without saying nothing. Hope you aren't offended but you need to quit it if you can't give any tangible information as others have. Time still remains money and you're wasting ours.
Unacceptable..... give you(a Master's degree holder) a headache...... give tangible information.

Here is the first tangible information that give so many members a headache. How to give more?

TA and FA is useless garbage.
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Know what you trade
  • #1,399
  • Edited 10:05am Mar 18, 2021 9:36am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi SWD I see the real architecture is the player who controls one side of the order book. Having control creates liquidity because not only do they now own the market - any new seller has to source their order directly from them. Their was a perfect example tonight on GBPUSD - a cycle to destroy any sellers by applying multiple Long orders near a top to remove all opposition then suddenly applying a huge Sell order at 1.3993 at the tip of the wick to balance the order book. They became be the only seller on GBPUSD - they become the liquidity...
Yeah, I think we are talking about the same sort of thing. You refer more to a "method" or implementation whereas I am referring more to a "concept", but we are in the same ball park for sure.

I can't comment too much on what you are using as I don't use volume profile, order flow, etc although I'm aware of it. It's notoriously difficult to get accurate spot volume so I suspect you are using futures exchange volume. Since there are multiple exchanges that offer EURUSD contracts, like Eurex and CME, is your volume source aggregated or picks from one source? Dark pool activity I think is interesting, that appears as level 3 hidden orders within the exchange, but has to be reported within 10 seconds to the tape per regulation. Perhaps that's too late for some I don't know.

It's interesting the idea of a player controlling the order book, especialy something like EUR/USD. Of course there is the physical order book that you are talking about per exchange, and then there are order books for each institution where their pending business resides for the day / week / month / quarter, etc which may not yet be stated in the market. Given all this intent, and all of the players available, it seems difficult to believe that any one party has ultimate control.

Perhaps what we are seeing is "moments in time" when intent is expressed through orders, in small operations that fulfil the institutions objectives.
Outside of that, the market has to be heading somewhere, and the question is, does that someone or something have overall control of the direction at any one time, given they might have acted as market maker and taken risk onto their books? There's more than one market maker around.

Thanks buddy,
swd

EDIT: Not my thread, but for what it's worth, I wouldn't ban anyone, some people come across a bit rude, we've all got thick skin otherwise we wouldn't be traders, always the option to not reply to any comment or warn them a few times first. Anyway, carry on...
  • #1,400
  • Mar 18, 2021 10:11am Mar 18, 2021 10:11am
Quoting GEfx
So, I don't get the discussion about edge. There is not edge present in the charts. The edge is you and how you use the charts. And most importantly, trade to targets, use your head (your edge) and stick with your plan until PA, TA, or structure say otherwise. The is not rocket science. It's much harder that rocket science.
Question - "where does the edge sit on the chart?"

When I woke up to read this tangible shit I give up. Better not disturb the bshit party.
Know what you trade
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