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Real or Algo

  • #1,361
  • Mar 16, 2021 5:17pm Mar 16, 2021 5:17pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Do understand that I have a financial education background. Imv your personal background play a large role that determine your market philosophy. In this we are all different. Cheers BW
I think this is an important point. As a member of Team Real, this might be a good time to explain why I am so certain of my facts and position on this topic. Like BW, I have an educational background in finance. I got my Masters degree in International Economics and Finance from the University of Chicago several decades ago. In my business career, I worked in a consulting position, with large banks in Chicago, NY, and Charlotte, as well as, the Chicago BOT, and a fun assignment with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. In my consulting firm, I managed teams of consultants that worked on trading teams in several large banks that will go unmentioned, but we spent lots of time with FX and bond traders in my career. It was while I was consulting with bankers that I met many of the traders in the group I belong to. The perspective in Forex trading that we have is entirely based on experiences with the banks. If a single algo was a factor in trading, we'd know about it. And this is how I came to understand objective truths in the Forex: FA builds structure, TA sets the narrative. That is what I've been saying in this thread and others. I tried to contribute here, and I hope I've helped at least a little. Good trading and remember, you are the edge.
  • #1,362
  • Mar 16, 2021 6:22pm Mar 16, 2021 6:22pm
Quote Bwilliams:

Imv if there's going to be any progress in the discussion the topic should be on the efficacy of TA and FA. And not whether the price painted on our chart is real or algo.

Changing the topic now, Why discuss a new topic when you have stated TA & FA is garbage, What is the point ?
You have been presented time & again with evidence.

However, going by the response by the TA and FA crowd it's best not to carry on with this discussion. Perhaps it make sense if this discussion is carried out in smaller groups with like minded individuals who seek real answers. Imv this is not possible with a thread discussion on FF. It will simply degenerate into arguments, name-calling, personal attacks the usual drama that defeat the purpose of discussion.

I had a feeling you would want to cut & run, when you haven't presented a single bit of evidence to support any of your arguments

I have written everything possible on this thread. There's no possibility to go any further.

No you haven't said anything except TA & FA is garbage

I can only tell you that, in my case, I made this difficult decision to discard completely TA and FA that's written in that thousands of threads on this forum. In short, previously I was exactly like you. I would have written the same post you wrote.

Going in circles,your favourite past time.

This discussion made me realise I should not have written all those things that I wrote on this thread and George threads. After reading the response on here I realise my mistake today, that's 2 years too late. I should not meddle in things that is none of my business. However, nothing is too late. I can do the next correct thing. Stop writing about this anymore. Full stop.

About Time, absolutely agree, added nothing to the debate. However, You still have a chance to rectify this.

If anything, this wasn't a debate about anything really. Just the OP & a few others (not BWilliams) wanting a result in their favour, market is not Real it's a single algo painting illusions, of course discounting & paying absolutely no attention to all the brilliant posts made by some highly qualified people from the finance industry.

Why don't any one of you call up your Broker(s), any broker, and ask them where they get their price feeds from ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,363
  • Mar 16, 2021 6:41pm Mar 16, 2021 6:41pm
Quote MoodyBot;

Several thousand threads on various forums and very few, if any, can bring success from TA alone.
There isn't one thread a newbie can head to and profit from the start, and remain profitable, not one.

NOt looking hard enough, there are plenty of good threads from very knowledgeable people, but they do not fit your very narrow view .

But there is something else and that's the psychological aspect to trading and that can only be learned with screen time, no other way to do it.

This is an essential part of it. Many experienced taredrs will confirm this. YOU are the edge.

The market absolutely sets traps for traders, continuously on all time frames and all charts, we both look for the areas that other traders would be drawn into, and that is really the secret. Identify the trap and trade accordingly.

This is perfectly normal, this is what markets are, who is willing to buy & who is willing to sell, what quantity & at what price.

We shop around or wait for the price we want.

If we are big enough to pull the market in our favour to get a better price. That's normal in the world of business,

trapped is when you, for lack of knowledge or skill get sucked in to the wrong position.

Should become a lesson learnt and not to blame a single algo manipulating the market theory.

Illusions are formulated in the brain. Fear & Greed. We see what we want to see. We hope & pray.

Reality is what can be felt, analysed, planned, defining goals/expectations, being patient, confidence, gaining experience, studying, improving.

Conclusion of this thread - Maybe, that is up to you.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,364
  • Mar 16, 2021 7:18pm Mar 16, 2021 7:18pm
Quoting Shabs19
Quote MoodyBot; Several thousand threads on various forums and very few, if any, can bring success from TA alone. There isn't one thread a newbie can head to and profit from the start, and remain profitable, not one. NOt looking hard enough, there are plenty of good threads from very knowledgeable people, but they do not fit your very narrow view . But there is something else and that's the psychological aspect to trading and that can only be learned with screen time, no other way to do it. This is an essential part of it. Many experienced taredrs...
Thanks Shabs

I agree with your post although I have a very open mind to theory, trading etc. My own particular method could be described as being an amalgamation of 3 known methods.

Derived from that I see a constantly repeating pattern. But no point going into that.

I don’t think it’s ‘cricket’ to call time on someone else’s thread, no matter what ones point of view is. If you are done here as well as Gefx etc then all I can say is thanks for the contribution, most welcome to post when the mood suits. I enjoy reading the posts, some related to the subject matter, some not.
Not everything in trading is black and white, that keeps the interest up.

Andy
  • #1,365
  • Mar 16, 2021 7:35pm Mar 16, 2021 7:35pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
I tried to contribute here, and I hope I've helped at least a little. Good trading and remember, you are the edge.

Cheers GEfx,

Yes, you've done good imo. I've grabbed a few nuggets.



(and with your high level background you could be still under some NDA of course, about the rest )

just takin the p!ss, as we call it down under


trade well, trade safe
Pete
  • #1,366
  • Edited Mar 17, 2021 3:50am Mar 16, 2021 7:42pm | Edited Mar 17, 2021 3:50am
I wonder in ten years time, all active participants on this thread and readers alike, look back at this thread with regards to what was written on here how would their opinion be then?

Time and the market is the best and only teacher in this case. That's what I have learnt from this thread. This lesson definitely put me in good stead to avoid the pitfalls when I talk to someone else about forex trading. I know I have gained something from this thread. Thanks Andy.

Cheers
BW
Inserted Video


Ps For those members who truly seek the real answer. I encourage you not to compromise, reject traditional TA and FA represented by the few thousand threads. Keep your search simple. So simple I can make an accurate live market call from the phone. So simple the big egos will never search in that stupidly simple place.
Quoting BWilliam
The answer is so simple yet it eludes almost everyone.
Quoting BWilliam
I got my breakthrough in my own research from this base few years later. The end product is simple, very simple, stupidly simple. I wrote here earlier, there's no need for special magic proprietary indicators. No need. I use ZERO proprietary indicators. The key lies in your UNDERSTANDING. That's all everyone lack. That's the secret sauce. I truly mean what I say.
Know what you trade
  • #1,367
  • Mar 16, 2021 9:20pm Mar 16, 2021 9:20pm
Quoting BWilliam
I wonder in ten years time, all active participants on this thread and readers alike, look back at this thread with regards to what was written on here how would their opinion be then? Time and the market is the best and only teacher in this case. That's what I have learnt from this thread. This lesson definitely put me in good stead to avoid the pitfalls when I talk to someone else about forex trading. I know I have gained something from this thread. Thanks Andy. Cheers BW https://youtu.be/WjsP-wTT_yU
I would think it’s debatable whether Forex Factory is open and working as a viable business in ten years time with all the other improved social media sites these days.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,368
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:26pm Mar 16, 2021 10:26pm
Quoting Shabs19
Why don't any one of you call up your Broker(s), any broker, and ask them where they get their price feeds from ?

Hi Shabs,

I did have detailed discussions with my (Oz based) broker on a/c implementation, as they said they would provide a trade receipt ticket for any trade I had query with. (I wont mention my broker by name).

I later submitted 2 trade enquiries, that were not about any trade query but out of simple curiosity, and I rec'd 2 receipts with each referencing a different LP, one Citadel and the other jump2. This trade receipt ticket was from my broker, not from the LP.

I was advised that the Broker takes the commission. And that the (varying) spread went to the Liquidity Provider.

I asked about this LP and was advised they had access to a grouping of 5 LPs, with apparently one a "prime" LP whatever that meant.

The P/LP? was then to "find" us traders the best bid-ask at the time in their grouping, and that would serve to initiate my trade (a different LP might then close the trade, depending on who was up for it the time, I guess).

So if they were to be finding "us" the best bid-ask at the time, naturally my mind thought, well how many different prices are there 'floating' around in FX at any one time, and would they be the same price feed as the Tier Banks.

That question, of my thoughts, was answered in some part on earlier posts in this thread over the past 4 weeks.

I am thinking, because of the answer received here, that price variances would be miniscule (like down to the last 5th digit maybe, who knows).

But I was told, that there were varying prices floating about.

This is not any issue with me at all, from what answer I read on here subsequently.
  • #1,369
  • Mar 16, 2021 11:00pm Mar 16, 2021 11:00pm
I do reference some simple indis on my 1hr chart that will show me

1.current market structure, and 2. an area of interest for possible trade.

I would then slip down to the 1min chart to watch & wait to see if any directional momentum confirmation is provided. Then I use probability only (from past experience, I guess) for R:R at 1:1 or better and trade to a near target (greater than 7p).

I don’t call it TA what I do, but some might I guess, especially up on the 1hr chart. I just see a zone, or area of interest.

Other trader’s charts I see on here look far more ‘professional’ to me, and I respect that and I always take note in my mind. But I can trade mine, as they are.

Algo or real, again doesn’t much matter. Repeatable market behaviour does and is what most traders look for, I guess.


.
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  • #1,370
  • Mar 17, 2021 12:54am Mar 17, 2021 12:54am
Quoting BWilliam
I wrote it simply as TA and FA is useless garbage.
Agree. TA (math) is garbage, but "feel the market" (magic) is the edge
(And of course drawing random lines on the chart in the key too).
Observer effect
  • #1,371
  • Mar 17, 2021 2:57am Mar 17, 2021 2:57am
The date and time on which price has to be X between that and today is all manipulation and brokers too are part of the game, they attract poor retailers maintianing their B books, offering 20% 30% and 50% bonuses lucky draws and doing dirty wick games and at time landed in to law suits

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/robi...ding-halt.html

attached ic market bit coin wick manipulation
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,372
  • Mar 17, 2021 4:59am Mar 17, 2021 4:59am
Quoting BWilliam
Keep your search simple.
What I have been saying all along, yet you rejected this statement from me.

I respect whatever discovery you found is from your own hard work and time spent researching and this is your privelege to disclose or not disclose.

The phrase : "Many roads lead to Rome" seems applicable here.

Apologies if I have said anything to offend anyone, not my intention, probably, as the debate was not going anywhere IMHO.

TT thanks for taking the time out to phone your broker. Those pesky 5th digit variations don't mean anything to us, but when we talk in Billions can add up to
a nice $50,000+ in the back pocket for someone.

Trade Safe.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,373
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:35pm Mar 17, 2021 1:35pm
Quoting BWilliam
I wonder in ten years time, all active participants on this thread and readers alike, look back at this thread with regards to what was written on here how would their opinion be then? Time and the market is the best and only teacher in this case. That's what I have learnt from this thread. This lesson definitely put me in good stead to avoid the pitfalls when I talk to someone else about forex trading. I know I have gained something from this thread. Thanks Andy. Cheers BW https://youtu.be/WjsP-wTT_yU Ps For those members who truly seek...
BWilliams, maybe it's a communication gap thing. The truth here is non of us are in high school anymore and what you're doing here on this thread is like high school behaviour of keeping secrets while teasing everyone else you know something they don't. No one forced you on this thread, you came here willingly. No one is forcing you to divulge more than you plan to either.

However what is unacceptable and frankly your posts give me a headache, so what is unacceptable is you saying much without saying nothing. Hope you aren't offended but you need to quit it if you can't give any tangible information as others have. Time still remains money and you're wasting ours.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #1,374
  • Mar 17, 2021 7:04pm Mar 17, 2021 7:04pm
Just some random "stuff", sitting on a chart



.
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  • #1,375
  • Mar 17, 2021 8:20pm Mar 17, 2021 8:20pm
Quoting TimeTells
Just some random "stuff", sitting on a chart . {image}
Aha ... the old snakes and ladders...
  • #1,376
  • Mar 18, 2021 12:13am Mar 18, 2021 12:13am
Quoting TimeTells
Just some random "stuff", sitting on a chart . {image}
almost same picture.
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  • #1,377
  • Mar 18, 2021 12:52am Mar 18, 2021 12:52am
Quoting giselle1723
{quote}

almost same picture. {image}

Hi Giselle, yep definately the same prices


I hope you have had some joy in Asia.

I have had a clean week, up till this morning. Then entered early, and closed early on my first trade .

(Got it back a little later, trading in the "then' direction again, for a pittance. I'll wait for London to NY now).


ps: no requirement to offer, but


do you wonder

if the market is real driven
if the market is algo driven
or
maybe something else?



.
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  • #1,378
  • Mar 18, 2021 1:41am Mar 18, 2021 1:41am
Lucky the market is random, otherwise might have got caught out...and that's just a few of them.

I wonder who farted at 22:00 to create bullshit moves undercover of bullshit news....

At least TA/FA would have picked up the on the moves before they happened...

Yes folks, its real.... such precision ..can only be money moving the charts....right?
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  • #1,379
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:14am Mar 18, 2021 2:14am
The last posts I see often the word ‘random’. Has this become a ‘random or non-random’ thread? If that is the case then the algo camp and the real camp can fully agree, I guess.
Here some TA garbage before the fact: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13456245
  • #1,380
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:14am Mar 18, 2021 2:14am
Quoting TimeTells
Just some random "stuff", sitting on a chart . {image}
Here is a theoretical explanation for your "stuff" on the chart. Not all matching engines are created equally. When a market is declining fast, how is it that a seller can still sell, if "someone" or "something" is taking the opposite side of their trade? There has to be a buyer somewhere in the system to provide the liquidity to allow you to sell. Doesn't matter who or what it is but your sell order has to be "matched" with a buyer.

Let's assume that the buyer cannot just be retail losers. If they were, then a big player who wanted to buy 100 million EURUSD sprayed over a certain area would not get filled since there wouldn't be adequate liquidity. So something else is providing that liquidity, and you can god damn guarantee that price will come back to give "it" a profit. We cannot assume they will just lay it off to another seller for the spread in a fast moving market. There is going to be an element of being stuck with some debt for some time. Big market makers are able to do this and are compensated for it.

I believe there is a REAL architecture in place to facilitate market liquidity and support the BIG market makers who ( don't like to ) / ( won't ) lose out. Different timelines for holding debt, different risk factors and kickbacks. BIG pockets need only apply lol. Not on about brokers here, they're one step up in the food chain from a retail client.

Now a big BUT, even if you work out what's going on in the charts from AN algo perspective, does not mean you can trade it like THEY can. Which target is next, in what order, what sizing was applied to each target area that needs to be met or exceeded. Something to chew over during your breakfast buddy. Take care for now.
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