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Real or Algo

  • #1,321
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:25am Mar 16, 2021 10:25am
Quoting almo
No, not difficult for me to understand where your coming from - however you have yet to answer the question. Is there an edge? And if yes, how do you determine what that is? {quote} Specifically, lets use that as the example....how would you determine where the edge is for Tuesday, Thursday and Friday?
It becomes so easy looking backwards to know NOW that Tuesday and Thursday the edge sit on a rising market. Friday a falling market.

Ask yourself this hard question,

How does TA and FA help you identify the edge in live market?

How different if you asked your dog help you identify the edge instead?

Remember, we're talking about absolute clear market move on those 3 days.

For how long before you decide to call TA and FA garbage?

It's your choice.

For those who use TA and FA and can and did make the correct market call for those 3 days, I salute your fantastic, super human, bionic eyes, professional trader status.

I admit I am a normal person with no super powers, no genius brains

I can't make the call for those 3 days with TA and FA. Shame on me.
Know what you trade
  • #1,322
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:26am Mar 16, 2021 10:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Look at the chart NOW for Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Yes look at it NOW. Tell us where does the edge sit? Yes tell us NOW, looking backwards at Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, can you tell where the edge sit? In my post history, I asked to look at HISTORY chart to mark where the edge sit. I wrote clearly if you can't mark the edge on a HISTORY chart there's no chance you can indentify it on a live chart in real time. Until you come to this realisation or awakening, you're under illusion.

I see similarity with Shabs chart, however my chart does not include the open times that are present on his chart.
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  • #1,323
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:31am Mar 16, 2021 10:31am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} It becomes so easy looking backwards to know NOW that Tuesday and Thursday the edge sit on a rising market. Friday a falling market. Ask yourself this hard question, How does TA and FA help you identify the edge in live market? How different if you asked your dog help you identify the edge instead? Remember, we're talking about absolute clear market move on those 3 days. For how long before you decide to call TA and FA garbage? It's your choice.
It's not looking backwards , this chart was printed on the 14th March. I could go back further, except you wouldn't believe it .

Stop wasting internet space, Get to the point & stop spinning around. Similar to CP's ballerina, Spin one way then the other, an illusion.

You either have a point to make or you don't. Which is it ? Don't copy & paste all your previous answers.

So far you don't.

Edit: I don't use FA only PA & TA I watch for High & Medium Impact News which can skewer your tardes if not temporarily.

I do not claim any special powers - you did. You stated you could see price levels where market would go to & when, with your mathematical formula before even the institutional traders or brokers. So clearly you are the Genius.
I take my hat off to you.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,324
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:32am Mar 16, 2021 10:32am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Stop wasting internet space, Get to the point & stop spinning around. Similar to CP's ballerina, Spin one way then the other, an illusion. You either have a point to make or you don't. Which is it ? Don't copy & paste all your previous answers. So far you don't.

Shabs, give him a chance to respond please. I feel like we are about to make some serious progress and potentially a final answer to "Real or Algo"
  • #1,325
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:34am Mar 16, 2021 10:34am
Quoting almo
I see similarity with Shabs chart, however my chart does not include the open times that are present on his chart. {image}
Almo, simple question.

Can you tell and did you call the correct rising market for Tuesday and Thursday, and falling market for Friday in live market?

Can you do it in live market?

A simple yes or no.
Know what you trade
  • #1,326
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:37am Mar 16, 2021 10:37am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} It's not looking backwards , this chart was printed on the 14th March. I could go back further, except you wouldn't believe it . Stop wasting internet space, Get to the point & stop spinning around. Similar to CP's ballerina, Spin one way then the other, an illusion. You either have a point to make or you don't. Which is it ? Don't copy & paste all your previous answers. So far you don't.
He is not saying you were looking behind. For us (Almo and me) to see his point (the edge) we have to see it in hindsight first and then work backward (we are using the GU chart that he initially called the 1.40006). I think you misunderstood him.
  • #1,327
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:37am Mar 16, 2021 10:37am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Almo, simple question. Can you tell and did you call the correct rising market for Tuesday and Thursday, and falling market for Friday 8n live market? A simple yes or no.

NO - only because I haven't traded GU in some time. I've been trading EU.

Could I have based on this little exercise? Possibly - this is similar to what CP has mentioned with his "95% of the time Price will Close above or below the Open" comment

This would have to assume that one was catching the knife, which is not something normal people should be attempting.
  • #1,328
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:41am Mar 16, 2021 10:41am
Quoting almo
{quote} NO - only because I haven't traded GU in some time. I've been trading EU. Could I have based on this little exercise? Possibly - this is similar to what CP has mentioned with his "95% of the time Price will Close above or below the Open" comment This would have to assume that one was catching the knife, which is not something normal people should be attempting.
Ok You trade EU.

Can you and did you call EU fall(almost 70pips) TODAY, RIGHT NOW?

A simple yes or no.
Know what you trade
  • #1,329
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:45am Mar 16, 2021 10:45am
Quoting Pumi
He is not saying you were looking behind. For us (Almo and me) to see his point (the edge) we have to see it in hindsight first and then work backward (we are using the GU chart that he initially called the 1.40006). I think you misunderstood him.
Correct Pumi. If you can't see it in history charts you have no chance to see it in live market.

Check my history posts. I wrote it clearly and I repeat myself again here. Anybody reading?
Know what you trade
  • #1,330
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:45am Mar 16, 2021 10:45am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Ok You trade EU. Can you and did you call EU fall(almost 70pips) TODAY, RIGHT NOW? A simple yes or no.
Yes
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  • #1,331
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:47am Mar 16, 2021 10:47am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} He is not saying you were looking behind. For us (Almo and me) to see his point (the edge) we have to see it in hindsight first and then work backward (we are using the GU chart that he initially called the 1.40006). I think you misunderstood him.
Quote BWiliam: It becomes so easy looking backwards to know NOW that Tuesday and Thursday the edge sit on a rising market. Friday a falling market.

Am I reading this wrong ? He did say easy to look backwards, I agree. Though the chart I posted proves I didn't look backwards. Clearly defined, if you can't see atrade then I can't help you. Illusion or not.

I don't use conventional TA, Supply & Demand or Fibs or MA's , TMa's, Divining Rods, Crop Circles, Moon Phases etc.

I look for low hanging fruit on any chart within my watchlist based on my strict criteria. If I can't see a potential trade, I go somehwere else or sit on my hands.

Edit: I will stop posting for BWilliam so that he can enlighten us. Please BW no more questions just answers and get to the poin tplease.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,332
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:49am Mar 16, 2021 10:49am
Quoting almo
Yes {image}
Do you realise you posted evidence that you can't tell in live market that EU falls 70pips?

This comment is not to offend. It's a necessary comment to deliver the point.

Read through all my post above, my message is clear.

TA and FA is useless garbage.

It don't take a genius to figure that out.

It takes a brave person with courage, downright honest to himself to EASILY recognise the truth.

I wrote many times. The choice is yours.
Know what you trade
  • #1,333
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:51am Mar 16, 2021 10:51am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Do you realise you posted evidence that you can't tell in live market that EU falls 70pips? This comment is not to offend. It's a necessary comment to deliver the point.
The evidence I presented proved that I was able to capture a large chuck of this move, in addition, some of those trades were taken after price attempted to come back only to head back south again.

EU has more to go than just this 70 pips
  • #1,334
  • Edited 11:19am Mar 16, 2021 10:55am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting almo
The evidence I presented proved that I was able to capture a large chuck of this move, in addition, some of those trades were taken after price attempted to come back only to head back south again. EU has more to go than just this 70 pips
If WHOEVER fail to see what I pointed out, it's beyond me to do anything else.

Again,I have no intention to offend Almo. If I did I apologise.

My last attempt.

A question for EVERYONE.

In your opinion, looking backwards at history chart based on the trades executed do you think the trader knew in live market EU fall 70pips?

Answer this simple question for YOUR own consumption.

Either YOU get it or YOU don't.

It's bedtime. G9

Cheers.
BW

Ps. For those who ask me for hints and tips, read my posts above again and again until you get it. Start from here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13454304
Know what you trade
  • #1,335
  • Mar 16, 2021 10:59am Mar 16, 2021 10:59am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} If WHOEVER fail to see what I pointed out, it's beyond me to do anything else. Cheers.
I think your confusing something about my trading vs what is occurring BWilliam

Does price go straight from one price to another? Or does it oscillate on its way to the target?

I believe in the latter, thus I attempt to trade on the pullbacks whenever possible, assuming I have a target in mind.


Just because 70 pips was your expected move, does not make it the most optimal trade to take it at the top and sell at the bottom. If you know price will oscillate, Your almost always better off hitting for singles than trying for the home run


And no offense has been taken BWilliam - I do enjoy this debate, and not just with you but with everyone here. This has been a good discussion, and I am looking forward to further discussion
  • #1,336
  • Mar 16, 2021 11:13am Mar 16, 2021 11:13am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} If WHOEVER fail to see what I pointed out, it's beyond me to do anything else. Again,I have no intention to offend Almo. If I did I apologise. My last attempt. A question for EVERYONE. In your opinion, based on the trades executed do you think the trader knew in live market EU fall 70pips? Answer this simple question for YOUR own consumption. Either YOU get it or YOU don't. It's bedtime. Cheers. BW Ps. For those who ask me for hints and tips, read my posts above again and again until you get it.
No Thanks mate - No Offence.

No point at all
If anyone can make some head or tail of BW posts - Do please tell me. My head is spinning.

EU Chart if anyone is interested, not traded this one today, I was out. Was ther to be picked off. Up or Down

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,337
  • Mar 16, 2021 11:19am Mar 16, 2021 11:19am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} No Thanks mate - No Offence. No point at all If anyone can make some head or tail of BW posts - Do please tell me. My head is spinning. EU Chart if anyone is interested, not traded this one today, I was out. Was ther to be picked off. {image}

I could be very wrong with my interpretation of what Bwilliam was trying to say....so take this with a grain of salt

The edge is literally an edge of the chart - Price will push the boundaries leaving a Major low/ Major high behind. Everything in the middle is "the illusion". This makes somewhat sense when you put it into the context of ...where is Trend?

Trend is positive assuming your trade is going profitable, negative if its not. Pretty simple really....but people tend to draw trendlines at the Major Tops/Bottoms and call that Trend, but that is only true IF we took the trade there.
  • #1,338
  • Edited 12:54pm Mar 16, 2021 11:32am | Edited 12:54pm
Tuesday afternoon in the Real or Algo art class

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edit. blue boxes refer to previous days range....Mon & Wed just comfy in their own zone
  • #1,339
  • Edited 12:28pm Mar 16, 2021 12:04pm | Edited 12:28pm
since everyone is giving his own opinion i thought to share what i have learnt so far.

fundamentals effect the price where it will go and settle what are fundamentals
- State bank monetary policy to control a country inflation international price stability i.e., bank interest rates,
- Govt. steps say to benefit construction industry reduced the taxes by 2% from steel, cement and bricks producer - price will shoot up as they will make more profit creating more demand
- Risk on scenario i.e., war, corona, big frauds, penalties like on iran and peace stability is risk off scenarios.


TA submits to fundamentals too or fundamentals override the TA

Price action is part of TA

the time and date is decided by the algo say after 3 days price will reach here, it wanna go there may be hovering or manipulated by market makers by pushinig up one day and next day again at same level but eventually it will go there on 3rd day at it time and here is a pick

market makers also wanna ride the price and keep pushing the price up and down to trap the small retailers or institutions (among them are market makers), who has the capacity to hold for long will win eventually, that's why mostly our TA goes right every one know where price has to go but price goes in the direction without us

take away for retailers:
price move up one day and comes back to same price next day, know when to enter when to exit, every time market makers will push price to comes back to hit our SL (liquidity) to load theirs orders, so keep taking partials to grow equity, do BE let it hit BE not equity. eventually you will get the ride when its time to reach the target you will be riding along it.

Question: how market maker moves prices? something like this
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/57081547.cms

Tools to know where are more orders:
Open interest, seasonality, Cot analysis

i have forecasted it on 10th March
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and today it happened like this
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13454001
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,340
  • Edited 12:29pm Mar 16, 2021 12:16pm | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting BWilliam
A question for EVERYONE. In your opinion, looking backwards at history chart based on the trades executed do you think the trader knew in live market EU fall 70pips?
If you are talking about March 12, that's how I traded it:

1. Price tried to go through previous day high up on Asia session several times and fail. Since price was under zero line (daily open) only shorts allowed for me (my personal rule).
2. Then it start to move down with a nice trend. 3 moving averages was in correct order, crossover was done and I was waiting.
2.1. On the first arrow I entered the short till -0.25% level. This is very bad habit, but it was small lot size just to test the things.
3. Then price crossed the -0.25% level from daily open my first entry TP was hit and I entered second short and place TP at -0.5% level which is 302 points.
4. Since there were no retracements through the channel I kept my short until TP was hit. SL always placed at the dashed line higher the ma50.

BTW price hit previous day low too a little lower, but I quit later. Then it reversed. But no more trades were taken since there were no shorts, but longs under zero line are prohibited.

That's how I personally trade using moving average, stochastic, candles HH/LL and zone calculations. Sometimes I'm using Fibo level from one zone to another to exit the trade partially. In my case fibo levels are just percentages. I don't know how to use it live another way. For example 30%, 50% and 100% where 100% is next level. Or 200% is second etc.

So I don't know why everyone talking that TA and PA are not working and I need to have magic eyes to "feel" the market. I don't feel it. It always act the same way.

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So if answer your question I'm not looking back to the past, but my indicators are looking back for 200 bars on 1m chart max, since my slowest ma is 200. That's all. I also check 1h and 4h to get the main direction, but I don't use it in trading because in that case I will always stuck with longs on top and with shorts on bottom.

btw today was the same ob gbpusd.
p.s. personally I trade only shorts because most people don't understand how to short and the shorts move approx 1.3 times faster (and distance is bigger approx 1.5 times). I'm not trying to teach, not trying to say that only my approach is best (it is not), just saying that it is possible to trade using TA and PA.
Observer effect
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