Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2850 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #56,981
  • Mar 12, 2021 8:38pm Mar 12, 2021 8:38pm
Quoting lemercenaire
No vids tonight but for night owls, there are two good docs on BBC4: "Robert Plant: By Myself" 23:00 - 00:00 then... "Southern Rock at the BBC" 00:00 - 01:00 Seen them both before but still worth watching again. Have a great weekend, all. Back at the screens next week.
The Meat Loaf one on after these was excellent also.
  • #56,982
  • Mar 13, 2021 4:01am Mar 13, 2021 4:01am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} The Meat Loaf one on after these was excellent also.
Inserted Video
  • #56,983
  • Mar 15, 2021 2:57am Mar 15, 2021 2:57am
morning,
dont forget, NY open is one hour earlier today.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,984
  • Mar 15, 2021 3:47am Mar 15, 2021 3:47am
+7 on the billy bar. Good start for the week. Thank you everyone
  • #56,985
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:03am Mar 15, 2021 4:03am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
+7 on the billy bar. Good start for the week. Thank you everyone
+5 here too. I stil have a counter running with the failed trade on Thursday at -12. I thought of fixing it but well. It was over -22 Pips at times during the weekend.

Have a nice day all.
  • #56,986
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:09am Mar 15, 2021 4:09am
Looks like we are heading towards 1.40 again. Which pretty much coincides with R1. Let's see if price can break and close above 1.3950.
  • #56,987
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:34am Mar 15, 2021 4:34am
Quoting ia1979
Looks like we are heading towards 1.40 again. Which pretty much coincides with R1. Let's see if price can break and close above 1.3950.
I always wonder what people mean if they say close above this or that S/R before XY will likely go happen. If you usually read technical market analyses from all these professional fortune tellers. Regardless of whether it is a news page or Bloomberg on Television.

Lets say a M1 bar closes above 1.3950. Maybe even a few, does this mean that we then finally broke that resistance level and can now throw all our money at it? On M5, M15, M30, H1 and so on Price could still close below. So how do they look at that?
  • #56,988
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:40am Mar 15, 2021 4:40am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I always wonder what people mean if they say close above this or that S/R before XY will likely go happen. If you usually read technical market analyses from all these professional fortune tellers. Regardless of whether it is a news page or Bloomberg on Television. Lets say a M1 bar closes above 1.3950. Maybe even a few, does this mean that we then finally broke that resistance level and can now throw all our money at it? On M5, M15, M30, H1 and so on Price could still close below. So how do they look at that?
For me I would usually look at H1, M30, or M15 closing above. M15 as a bare minimum. Price can be quite choppy on M5 and M1. Even then, price can obviously still reverse. This is just to give us some bias of what might happen.

For example, I am bullish on GU right now because price has closed above the daily open and the daily pivot. If it now closes below it, I will probably change my stance.

1.3950 might be hard to break. It is a round number and looking left shows it has been acting as resistance. And of course, it is the current daily high, and the high of the 12-4am range.
  • #56,989
  • Mar 15, 2021 6:05am Mar 15, 2021 6:05am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} For me I would usually look at H1, M30, or M15 closing above. M15 as a bare minimum. Price can be quite choppy on M5 and M1. Even then, price can obviously still reverse. This is just to give us some bias of what might happen. For example, I am bullish on GU right now because price has closed above the daily open and the daily pivot. If it now closes below it, I will probably change my stance. 1.3950 might be hard to break. It is a round number and looking left shows it has been acting as resistance. And of course, it is the current daily...
Thank you, makes sense. Sounds a bit like Billy with his bias on the 12-4 range.

So you can use such bias as a reason for NOT entering into a trade or maybe only doing a trade if the setup you might get confirms with the direction of that bias.

I am not doing that. My only filter right now for the BillyBar is the size of the range. So if the range is much bigger than >20 i would not enter. However i 'm just thinking about whether that makes a lot of sense at all hehe. If the statistics saying that more often than not price will retrace for a maximum of no bigger than -15 Pips, you can maybe just as well enter on a range of >50 Pips and just limit your fixed SL down to -15 or start to counter it from there.

What i like to do on a larger range is then looking for a retrace entry. So entering at a better price once the high/low broke instead of entering at the exact high or low. But i so far i havenīt done this that often, maybe for a hand full of days over the last almost 11 months now.
  • #56,990
  • Mar 15, 2021 7:48am Mar 15, 2021 7:48am
a move triggered by "monthly&weekly"-pivots right after NY open (is seldom):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5mwpivot.png Size: 40 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,991
  • Mar 15, 2021 7:58am Mar 15, 2021 7:58am
Quoting birdland
a move triggered by "monthly&weekly"-pivots right after NY open (is seldom): {image}
Choppy price action today so far. Let's see if the New York stock exchange provides it with some much needed Red Bull in about half an hour.
  • #56,992
  • Mar 15, 2021 8:37am Mar 15, 2021 8:37am
Hi all,
i hope one is fine and dandy.
Cable 08-00 break. High broke and it made 5 + points but i did not trade it.
I did trade E/J off the 00-00 4 hour bar. NOT THE FIRST BREAK,BUT THE 2nd BREAK SHORT AFTER THE HIGH RETRACED.

This past week hasn't been a pleasure to trade, even though i was making the points and it wasnt off standard trades.
Last week i caught cable going up, then cable going down.
A couple of 08-00 fails but they were sorted.

Today lus e/j trade i also shorted cable off the 00-00 4 hr bar low plus a retrace.
I am finished until tomorrow.
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,993
  • Mar 15, 2021 8:44am Mar 15, 2021 8:44am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I always wonder what people mean if they say close above this or that S/R before XY will likely go happen. If you usually read technical market analyses from all these professional fortune tellers. Regardless of whether it is a news page or Bloomberg on Television. Lets say a M1 bar closes above 1.3950. Maybe even a few, does this mean that we then finally broke that resistance level and can now throw all our money at it? On M5, M15, M30, H1 and so on Price could still close below. So how do they look at that?

If for instance you have a valid entry, you can focus on where it is likely to go.
example, cable 08-00 break, high broke and got the 5 plus it headed to R1.

BUT..... my bias was short following the 00-00 low break.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,994
  • Edited 10:42am Mar 15, 2021 9:14am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting billytt
{quote} If for instance you have a valid entry, you can focus on where it is likely to go. example, cable 08-00 break, high broke and got the 5 plus it headed to R1. BUT..... my bias was short following the 00-00 low break.
Looks like we have another low range day today, after Friday which was above average.

Edit - I stand corrected.
  • #56,995
  • Mar 15, 2021 10:39am Mar 15, 2021 10:39am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} The Meat Loaf one on after these was excellent also.
i remember years and years ago a cocky female radio interviewer asked Meatloaf what his child/children called him. as in Meatloaf ? ,he replied with .....
No,just daddy. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,996
  • Mar 15, 2021 10:42am Mar 15, 2021 10:42am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Looks like we have another low range day today, after Friday which was above average.
The last few weeks Cable has been not running as normal. Due to uncertainty.
Points are still being made ......
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,997
  • Mar 15, 2021 10:46am Mar 15, 2021 10:46am
i took a few points off usd/cad lol.
It was off the 00-00 4 hour break,,, not the1st break, nor second but 3rd which was high. lol.
More opportunist but goooood. yaaaaaaaaaaaay.
i had finished trading for the day but i was tempted and tried it.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,998
  • Mar 15, 2021 11:41am Mar 15, 2021 11:41am
One swing of the bat today and bases are cleared...

Off the Kijun-sen and Fib.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NASmarch15th2021ForOneToClearTheBases-OffKijun-senAndFib.png Size: 28 KB
  • #56,999
  • Mar 15, 2021 12:25pm Mar 15, 2021 12:25pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} The last few weeks Cable has been not running as normal. Due to uncertainty. Points are still being made ......
I'd say we have the potential showing of two bounce points - the major one at 3700 (though that may take a couple of days to get to) and the minor at 3845. There is also a middle-ground of 3779 I'd say.

We shall see. Probably drop through the floor and keep Claudia in wine for the next decade
  • #57,000
  • Mar 15, 2021 1:30pm Mar 15, 2021 1:30pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} If for instance you have a valid entry, you can focus on where it is likely to go. example, cable 08-00 break, high broke and got the 5 plus it headed to R1. BUT..... my bias was short following the 00-00 low break.
But why should i be interested in where it is likely to go after it reached the +5 and i am done with trading? :-)

Not sure what R1 in this case was. I didnīt have the pivot points on my chart today, i suppose that is what you are reffering to if saying R1. I have removed the pivot points indicator Claudia kindly gave to me because i am still not sure how i would want to use it. It is only confusing, contradicting and therefor making things even harder for me to come to a final decicion for why pressing the buy or sell button.

In case of the BillyBar and most on the breakout triggers discussed here which are based on statistical evidence i also somehow donīt see a point in using these additional tools/informations? If i know price was likely to do X times that in the past after touching x line, then that should be the end of story in my understanding.

Therefor if price hits the high of the setup i go long, if it`s the low i go short, that simple.

It looks like price did not travel on for much after the high break of the BillyBar today. But the following low break then seemed to be good for +>60 without going back to the high.

I thought of using the BillyBar low break from today to get rid of my counter from thursday but at time of the short trigger today the buy position would have been in negative pips territory. Therefor i did not close it. I need a short trigger where price is above my failed trade`s high where i went long, so in this anything somewhere above 1.39452. The short trigger today actually was 20 pips lower :/ However this is only my interpretation of how to potentially un-lock a locked in trade.

Best regards from here.
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