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Real or Algo

  • #1,201
  • Mar 12, 2021 10:04pm Mar 12, 2021 10:04pm
Ok, the overseas guys are asleep I guess, and good luck to them.
But they might choose to read later, or not


My USDCAD chart,

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13449998

The problem I can see with my chart, for traders, is not in any hidden meaning in my words.


It is in the “viewing” of the chart itself.


And its received perception by the viewer.


That is all.

Let me quickly digress.


When BW was going into a bit more detail (than even maybe HE was comfortable sharing), and I thank him for that, he brought up a thread that I did read years ago, as it turns out, by Crucial Point.

I am not going into the yay or nay regarding CPs premises, that is for each to decide.

But when I had a quick skim again (I speed read) I found a CP post that might help to explain today …

WHY, each of us CAN see a different thing when looking at exactly the SAME thing.


But how is that possible.
  • #1,202
  • Mar 12, 2021 10:18pm Mar 12, 2021 10:18pm
Well, what do we all see in the spinning picture first,

and THEN read CPs insightful comments.


https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...94#post3801894


So in essence the USDCAD chart I posted is not actually a mystery at all.


To those who would look at the chart, I guess, from EITHER a “real or algo” standpoint.


But why, I ask, is it limited to just those 2 viewpoints,
because like with my “Horns Of A Dilemma” nightmare lol

there may be a THIRD option, or more.


In fact Shabs brought in another option already, when this thread was almost dead, with the

“would look like” a single algo option

that had NOT yet been discussed because this thread was reaching a conclusion - sadly

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13450158


So here we are, de-mystified but still not seeing forex charts the way another trader maybe sees them.

There is no right or wrong way, as I think about it, only how we each perceive the markets into which we put our cash.
  • #1,203
  • Edited 10:41pm Mar 12, 2021 10:30pm | Edited 10:41pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The main thing is that price does not move due to supply demand economics. If I knew since Tuesday that price will rise in the future market to 1.4006 that's derived from some math calculations, this future knowledge is proof that this current bullish price movement is not due to supply demand economics. Suddenly there this excess demand over supply from Tuesday that push price upwards. BS. That's algo at work. ***Just keep watching price from NOW, you may learn how the algo work. Algo level 1.4006 is not a price target that...

Hello Everyone,

The screenshot below I am attaching is in continuation of BW's call on GU as quoted above. I believe he wanted to leave no stones left unturned before his departure from the FF forum. I'll let the screenshot do the talking.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Academics describe the markets as random walk and levy flight. RickM, Z and the crew, see you guys this Christmas. Till then. Ciao.

Whilst it is sad to know that BW has decided to take a rest for now. I fully respect and understand his decision. Do take a good rest, BW!


Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I see market structure as a math formula, hence the algo code. I might fall under the quantitative technique category.

I can also personally vouch that BW has this math formula and he is not pulling the figures out of thin air or the conventional market structure approach. I know because I did my own detective/homework and managed to decipher the basis of his formula - whilst under his willingness and getting his personal guidance/tips/and hints before his decision to depart of course. Keep in mind that he did not find me, but I was the one that went ahead and approached him. Because I was eager to learn with optimism and less pessimism.

To those who perhaps still wants to decipher his formula, like Bruce Lee said "Empty your mind. Be like water" . Solids can't be water. And while being a solid - a solid have their own advantages too!

Again like all my previous post's intention, both the "Real" and "Algo" teams here can reap profits in their own ways out of the FX market. So, keep up the discussion guys! We do not want to have any sides suffering casualties too badly. If one side does, just give them some rest and nothing wrong with a little benefit of a doubt.

I am still studying the knowledge BW has imparted me with. I have yet to gain full proficiency of his math, so I wouldn't be bold enough like BW to make calls. All I can share here are words of encouragement and mindsets at the moment.

I have great respect for you all.

Cheers and have a great weekend everyone!
Zyzel

P.s. Edited- Re-uploaded for a better screenshot.
Always Learning. I am no Master
  • #1,204
  • Mar 12, 2021 11:12pm Mar 12, 2021 11:12pm
Quoting TimeTells
~~ My USDCAD chart, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13449998 The problem I can see with my chart, for traders, is not in any hidden meaning in my words. It is in the “viewing” of the chart itself. And its received perception by the viewer. That is all.
~~I found a CP post that might help to explain today … WHY, each of us CAN see a different thing when looking at exactly the SAME thing. But how is that possible.
Indeed.

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Good Trading
  • #1,205
  • Mar 13, 2021 12:22am Mar 13, 2021 12:22am
Just for fun

Play and say the words...

Inserted Video


Now think....real or ....

Look at the chart, what do you see!!
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  • #1,206
  • Mar 13, 2021 5:22am Mar 13, 2021 5:22am
Quoting moodybot
Just for fun Play and say the words... https://youtu.be/8EPLG0ihdcs Now think....real or .... Look at the chart, what do you see!! {image}
Hi mate,

I don't work for a bank or anyone anymore. I have no firm view one way or the other really, in as much as my financial success does not depend on the outcome of this convesation. Here is what I see... natural price discovery. Just as we see in the housing market, the car market and the pork bellies and fish markets. Do not forget that ANY market has memory. It does not forget anything. Lows are known, highs are known. Inflationary and deflationary pressures see to the rest.

The way to settle your mind on this is to inspect a detailed chart BEFORE say 1980, before Globex, before telephonic trading happened, before any automation was available much at all, before algos were born in the trading world. How did the market look then, who controlled it and how?

Below is a quick graphic I made of EURUSD from 1979 and from 2020 that I put together. The site I used is here, there might be better ones offering more detail:- https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ba...SD-to-EUR-1979 Looks broadly the same to me, highs and lows, run ups and run downs.

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What I see is what has always happened. A competition between each bank to fulfil its order book, both in auction and dealer markets. The bank will use it's resources to get price to where it needs to dump its sell orders at the highs, and then to get it's buy orders off its books at the lows. Very often you will see in a given week that price takes out prior weeks high and then tries to take out prior weeks lows. This might support what I am saying.

Banks will of course collude where mutually beneficial, rather than fighting to offload it's sell orders at highs whilst another large player is trying to offload its buy orders at the lows. The random stuff we see in between is HFT activity and fights between players trying to get the market to go where they need it to go next to offload its book which passes between each major session, London, New York, Sydney and Tokyo.

Anyway, just a bit of fresh content to think about whilst grinding out the hours prior to the next market open. Take care all
  • #1,207
  • Mar 13, 2021 5:33am Mar 13, 2021 5:33am
Quoting aud
{quote} Indeed. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What's the purpose to show what was? How it can help to make decision to take a trade? You all showing entries because in future the price goes to some point. But at the moment of trade there was no such data. Just wondering who you are tryin to impress?
Observer effect
  • #1,208
  • Mar 13, 2021 6:59am Mar 13, 2021 6:59am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {image}
What's the purpose to show what was? How it can help to make decision to take a trade? You all showing entries because in future the price goes to some point. But at the moment of trade there was no such data. Just wondering who you are tryin to impress?

Hi Ryu,

That looks like one of my charts. So if I may put in my opinion just for a moment.


Everyone will "see" something slightly different on that chart I imagine.

It's been a long thread here I guess and maybe you haven't been able to read every post that built up to this, but that's ok.

You could return to George's thread should you wish, tho I do understand it's a fairly long read.


But imho, when directional momentum confirmation has been established, I would have my eyes on that pin bar large doji (seven candles in from the left of the chart) as The Target the market (usually) shoots for as I see it.

The major current candle that is the final candle you left on the chart, once it had broken the "herd" line of 5 candles left, myself, then I would be looking for a long.

(and expecting/hoping for 7 to 10p - with a similar 1:1 R:R in DD there but that's just me).

I am understanding better now that "everyone" will see a chart in their own view, and that is fine.


So the question you should be posing, imo, is to yourself.
And what YOU might do in the circumstance, else looking at anybody's chart will leave you equally as puzzled.
I mean price can only go up down ultimately, those are your choices.

And if you choose to "sit" and wait for further data with NO TRADE then that is a legitimate 'decision' also.


The FULL chart when I posted it was aactually for a larger view of the market mechanics, that played out right to end of (stop hunt lol) Friday.

While to me, your wondering of who someome was "trying to impress" shows more about you than the poster imo. This is just a "discussion" thread after all.

But we all are what and who we are.

Please trade well and trade safe.
  • #1,209
  • Mar 13, 2021 7:13am Mar 13, 2021 7:13am
Quoting swd
{quote} Hi mate, I don't work for a bank or anyone anymore. I have no firm view one way or the other really, in as much as my financial success does not depend on the outcome of this convesation. Here is what I see... natural price discovery. Just as we see in the housing market, the car market and the pork bellies and fish markets. Do not forget that ANY market has memory. It does not forget anything. Lows are known, highs are known. Inflationary and deflationary pressures see to the rest. The way to settle your mind on this is to inspect a detailed...
You’d think the good people at poundsterlinglive, and everyone posting here, would immediately question, the E$ chart from 1979.
  • #1,210
  • Mar 13, 2021 7:31am Mar 13, 2021 7:31am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} You’d think the good people at poundsterlinglive, and everyone posting here, would immediately question, the E$ chart from 1979.
haha well spotted. Someone is awake and reading. I imagine its deutsche mark although I'm not even sure it's that tbh. But the point is, using USDGBP for example would also suffice. Just trying a different approach to eliminate "algo" to see what is left. Even open outcry tabulated charts would look similar to the price discovery nature of the charts we see today. What's your thought on that?
  • #1,211
  • Mar 13, 2021 7:52am Mar 13, 2021 7:52am
Quoting TimeTells
But imho, when directional momentum confirmation has been established
When? It was established in the future. You made your decision in the past using the data from the future that was not available at the moment of trade.

Quoting TimeTells
This is just a "discussion" thread after all.
Yes, but we are not discussing any approach. All I see is charts from the past and then explanation why it was a great trade. And every time it is different. Now it was doji, next chart will be with HH / LL, then moving average will appear. Then you will say that it because it was 5 green in a row. There is no system. Just luck and magic. What to discuss? Only RickM is talking about real things, but no one listen. All others exercise on historical data.
Observer effect
  • #1,212
  • Mar 13, 2021 8:14am Mar 13, 2021 8:14am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}
You made your decision in the past using the data from the future that was not available at the moment of trade.


Hi Ryu, mate it's midnight here in Oz on a Sat'dy night and I'm hitting the sack for sleep.

Please ponder this and I can help you further tomorrow if you would like that.

So.

Your bolded comment is 100% wrong. You may not have read my reply to you how i would have "viewed" the market structure at THE time
(ie before the "next" candle on the abbreviated chart you posted, from aud's post, that referenced my original post, whew)


So again, here is my reply to you to explain how I would have viewed the market structure AT your final candle.

And how I might have considered trading at that point, or not.


Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
But imho, when directional momentum confirmation has been established, I would have my eyes on that pin bar large doji
(seven candles in from the left of the chart) as The Target the market (usually) shoots for as I see it.

The major current candle that is the final candle you left on the chart,
once it had broken the "herd" line of 5 candles left, myself,
then I would be looking for a long.

If I have misunderstood either your question or your meaning I am sorry.

But the doji candle is what I look for, well not the doji, the Target.

So I am not inventing anything from the future in my discussion with you, I am merely saying what I look for "all the time" in those circumstances.


But, I repeat, what I do should be of less interest to you than what YOU would do yourself in the same circumstance
(pls read my full reply to you again for the 3 options you have in any potential trade situation).


All the best, maybe we can continue your quandry tomorrow when I am refreshed (been a big saturday night here with the neighbours lol)
cheers
  • #1,213
  • Edited 9:27am Mar 13, 2021 8:41am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting swd
{quote} Hi mate, I don't work for a bank or anyone anymore. I have no firm view one way or the other really, in as much as my financial success does not depend on the outcome of this convesation. Here is what I see... natural price discovery. Just as we see in the housing market, the car market and the pork bellies and fish markets. Do not forget that ANY market has memory. It does not forget anything. Lows are known, highs are known. Inflationary and deflationary pressures see to the rest. The way to settle your mind on this is to inspect a detailed...

Excellent post and exactly what i was saying, maybe more volatility in 2020 but that is to be expected given that volumes are far larger today than they would of been in 1979 and also given the fact that far more groups have access to the markets these days,.

Adendum

I was referring to GBPUSD pre 1996 from your link.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #1,214
  • Mar 13, 2021 8:56am Mar 13, 2021 8:56am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} Excellent post and exactly what i was saying, maybe more volatility in 2020 but that is to be expected given that volumes are far larger today than they would of been in 1979 and also given the fact that far more groups have access to the markets these days,.

Yeah thanks. It's all a bit of a laugh really, we can't know for sure whether there is an all powerful algo at work, we know algos go to work, but they are talking about something different here. Even given my little trick on the Aussies that got discovered almost immediately by a guy from the States (USDEUR chart from 1979, didn't trade electronically until 2002), it is fun to engage in a bit of theorist stuff. I did provide the link so easy to swap to USDGBP and compare to a 2020 USDGBP chart and as you say, volatiltiy is different but the hunting for tops and bottoms is as old as the hills. If we had hourly data from back then we might even see that played out pre-algo (or electronic algo anyway).

Cheers mate
swd
  • #1,215
  • Edited 10:27am Mar 13, 2021 8:57am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {image} What's the purpose to show what was? How it can help to make decision to take a trade? You all showing entries because in future the price goes to some point. But at the moment of trade there was no such data. Just wondering who you are tryin to impress?
You need to spend more time on past charts to see how the market likes to look for liquidity, not always in a straight line, often drawing in other participants to take the opposite direction to load up more on their positions.

Happens everyday and on all markets. You just need the screen time behind you to practise. Higher timefarmes are better to see the moves.
Drawing in targets based on mathematical formula, fibs or anything else such as previous market reaction points can be helpful, as the more information
you have, the more confluence of the zone/level and the more trust you can place there.

I don't like the word prediction, because it makes you believe you have magic powers and unerring ability when in fact all you have is a higher probability.
If the only data you have is history why discard it ? I can't tell you what the next candle is going to be, so don't ask.

Remember the professionals not only know where orders are likely to be, but often they have knowledge of the order book which retail have no access to.
Think like the professionals is my takeaway from all this. Find charts that are easier to trade, specialise on 1 or 2 markets, learn the behaviour/patterns.
The patterns repeat again & again, nothing new happens unlessa black swan event, in which case you have to have luck on your side.


I was quietly following this thread in the background, giving out likes now & again, when BWilliam called me out to produce price levels on GU if I thought
that trading can be simple, only we as traders don't like simple, we have to make things harder & unnecessarily complicated.
Anyway, I didn't give out just one level to watch, I gave him several. To date, no-one from the Algo team have aked me how I was able to do this, without any maths whatsoever, or to even acknowledge if the levels were accurate. Talk about deafening silence.
These were simple logical levels that can be seen on all charts, a roadmap if you like. You just need to know how to read them.

@TimeTells. If something walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, don't assume it is a duck. Don't be fooled, Question everything. Don't assume things period.

Apologies all round in advance, in case I may have written something untoward, no offence intended to the person, only to their thinking and giving my own personal observations. I always say without evidence, it is dangerous to assume it is fact, don't make things complicated and always trade safely.

Some excellent advice here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13430402

In case you haven't seen this before, some good principles to learning:
Inserted Video


How Perspective affects Perception:
Inserted Video
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,216
  • Mar 13, 2021 3:44pm Mar 13, 2021 3:44pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} You need to spend more time on past charts to see how the market likes to look for liquidity, not always in a straight line, often drawing in other participants to take the opposite direction to load up more on their positions. Happens everyday and on all markets. You just need the screen time behind you to practise. Higher timefarmes are better to see the moves. Drawing in targets based on mathematical formula, fibs or anything else such as previous market reaction points can be helpful, as the more information you have, the more confluence...

Great post Shabs

The thread was setup to explore the possibility of whether the data we see presented on our charts could in someway be from a single source Algo.
That may be crap, many view that, some are unsure and a few like me believe it is. There is no Algo team, I chat to Pete once in a while but to no one else
who contributes to this thread.

I think its great when traders post up a few charts showing preferred levels etc. I understand that BW asked to see your levels, that was for him, I didn't look at them, I have my own.
I use Georges targets on my charts, on every chart. I prefer unbroken Weekly high/lows and that is it.
I trade H1 timeframe as they suit me better, and living in Aus with my family doesn't lend to trading optimum time so have to cut cloth accordingly.
Pete as he has demonstrated on his charts, drills down to 1min. He scalps quite successfully. But he still looks at Georges levels.

To see my preferred entry I had to, over a couple of years or so, build an EA that could data crunch previous candle price which then prints onto the chart its findings.
I see evidence of what I believe to be a mathematical Algo, it's as simple as that.
I struggle to trade the exact entry that I look for simply because of the complexity of searching for the data, I'm not a programmer and the fact that most trades would be London/US session, the EA will however enter at a reasonable position, with money management and hedge if the crap hits the fan but I need to see the chart to get the exact entry.
I don't need to know whether the data is real or not, I just found it interesting from my findings but also from chatting previously with other traders, some for some against.

I would like BW to keep posting, adds to the spice, he keeps Pete simmering who then posts thought provoking charts, explanations.
For those asking about Pete's charts showing an after the event post have you ever scalped 1min and tried to record/copy at the same time and write text on the chart and load up onto FF as it happens.
Damn difficult so please if Pete posts a chart its with best intentions, not a deliberate after the event effort.

Can I finish by saying there have been a few posts this week that could be interpreted as offensive, I would like to hope its just business and not personal...

Thanks and all have a great week.
  • #1,217
  • Mar 13, 2021 4:44pm Mar 13, 2021 4:44pm
Quoting Zyzel
{quote} Hello Everyone, The screenshot below I am attaching is in continuation of BW's call on GU as quoted above. I believe he wanted to leave no stones left unturned before his departure from the FF forum. I'll let the screenshot do the talking. {image} {quote} Whilst it is sad to know that BW has decided to take a rest for now. I fully respect and understand his decision. Do take a good rest, BW! {quote} I can also personally vouch that BW has this math formula and he is not pulling the figures out of thin air or the conventional market...
Hi Zyzel, Absolutely spot on my friend. Its there, but it takes clearing the webs that tend to cress cross our brains when it comes to trading. One must dig to find the answers. BWilliam & so did Crucial Point shared some nuggets, but the whole gold mine has yet to be discovered. Glad to see you found something.
Best of trades to you in the times ahead.
  • #1,218
  • Mar 13, 2021 7:57pm Mar 13, 2021 7:57pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I can sympathise with the reasons people discount FA & TA. The fact is that institutional traders have to learn all this so that they are one up on the game of beating the opposition. Trading the news is an insiders game, knowing the numbers fast enough to get in & get out. Really a 50:50 game for retail unless you are patient and look for entries after the event. Can be profitable if you knw what you are doing. FA can also be traded long term, as very often the news can be a trend change on good/bad news and can last a few weeks. Now the...
OR

You could just trade the flow of money after a climax and jump on the bankers back and ride them for a short while.
I never look at any chart other than M1, have no concept whether the market is in a daily or weekly trend, don't follow levels other than what I can see on the current chart because the flow of money is just a fast flowing river of liquidity that is basically unaware of all other factors except the current density within the last few minutes.
Below is a typical expansion run on M1 that is often to a target level then reverses. The Red dotted line was also about the limit of expansion on the M1 chart - therefore who cares about currency direction on higher timeframes - its irrelevant.

I was talking to profitfarmer (Zoltan) on Thursday about how I see "George Aus" Target theory play out in real terms. Why does the targets reverse often at the pip then turn backwards to order density. The answer I believe is quite simple -

To turn a market Bullish, one Big players needs to control the order book so they need to destroy all Buyers before they turn the market. Therefore I see them selling hard to wipe out all Buying orders within the Cluster which creates a bearish spike - but not pass the target.

NOW THEY ARE THE ONLY BUYER OF ANY MEASURE

They simply stop Selling and start Buying - or I should say close some of their earlier Sells.
Then the cycle starts again where they have created a lopsided buying order book with an oversupply of Buyers.

THEY START TO SELL AGAIN AFTER TAKING SOME PROFITS

So the point I missed is one of the major reasons they choose to turn a market at a target (at a H1 recent Low) is they need to be the major Buyer but can't afford to risk breakout traders / EA's entering and creating a new order cluster just below the current cluster they control.

Therefore the Target theory holds true because it means One Big Player is in Control and has managed to keep price within the same order cluster.


All this theory can be proven by studying the Futures tape and considering one True fact.

LIQUIDITY IS EXTREMELY THIN IN ALL MARKETS -
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,219
  • Edited 8:54pm Mar 13, 2021 8:27pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} OR You could just trade the flow of money after a climax and jump on the bankers back and ride them for a short while. I never look at any chart other than M1, have no concept whether the market is in a daily or weekly trend, don't follow levels other than what I can see on the current chart because the flow of money is just a fast flowing river of liquidity that is basically unaware of all other factors except the current density within the last few minutes. Below is a typical expansion run on M1 that is often to a target level then reverses....

You have taken this (and shaken this) right down to its most fractal state, RickM,
  • #1,220
  • Mar 13, 2021 8:53pm Mar 13, 2021 8:53pm
Quoting moodybot
I would like BW to keep posting, adds to the spice, he keeps Pete simmering who then posts thought provoking charts, explanations.
Hi moodybot, I have nothing more to add on this thread other than this final post. Cheers.

"Don't be an idiot." unquote CrucialPoint 6 May 2010

"If you continue insist the efficacy of TA and FA, the only person you deny on this planet Earth is, yourself." unquote BWilliam 14 Mar 2021
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Know what you trade
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