Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2848 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #56,941
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:45am Mar 11, 2021 5:45am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Hi Iddd If you are counter trading but don't really know what you are doing make sure you are ok with losing a big chunk of your account. If not then don't try it. You are better off practising getting out of a mess on a smaller account. Hopefully you can be lucky and get out of it but don't be tricked into thinking you may have the skill/experience/method when you are trading with your real cash account. This is like swimming in shark infested waters. Brokers ring that bell when you hit a margin call.
Hey Fagin. It doesn't really matter for me if losing money fast or losing money quickly. Losing money never feels good But so far i am doing fine. If you followed me, since last may 2020 i am up far over 180% by today (shouldn't be advertising here).

So not a 25% a week like Billy is doing but still okay i think. A lot of that came from actually fixing the fails in a more random way then any methodical real planed in advance kind of thing. Thats the only thing that worries me. Because if you want to make a living from it you want to have some kind of plan how to repeat that gain? So you won't decrease your account after consistently taking out of it.

I already got my money out of the broker account that i have deposited. So even if blowing up the account now, it will be no net loss anymore unless i don't go negative which is unlikely to happen with the automatic margin stop out level at 50%. I also do not push the leverage to such extend that i would find my self in such situation any particular trade would be my last one. Yes it could happen but then there would need to be a lot of things to go totally wrong. But possible it is, yes.

I am not sure about a cash account you say. As far as i understand if trading forex on a cash account leveraged at 1:1 if will be hard to make any meaningful gains without having millions of millions in such account. What did GBP/USD move last month, a 5% in total? That is what some cryptos moved in a second....

So for a day trader trying to make a living from his/her/it trading, a cash account leveraged at 1:1 is probably no real option even if you would have the money.

As a trader you are always a risk taker! Any person telling me to know what the next trade will come out at is a liar, thats all. Some would say its a gamble. I think they have a point. But it can be a calculated gamble or a "Oh i found some some coins, lets go and put them all in the next slot machine over there and have a drink at the bar" kind of gamble. So i understand the people who just don't like to hear the term because it always comes with such negative touch.

So what you can do? You manage risk and hope to come out of a profit following your methodical way over a larger number of trades.

Does it feel right to put the counter on without a plan in advance? Nope. The floating loss could increase now again by leaving it on over the next days and the risk is getting higher as well to face margin problems with maybe some unexpected spread widening.

The trade failed, period. If there is a real advantage in locking-in the trade backed by statistical / mathematical reason please let me know. I see the psychological advantage but still the outcome will be net unprofitable if you don't get out of the hedge at $0 at least by also reducing these unknown risks of spread widening while your hedge is on.

If you trade only for the +5 here in the isolated way like me without making some more points to fix the fails at some other method/s you then MUST come out of the locked-in trades at $0 at least. Otherwise you might get away with it for a super duper month with almost no fails at a larger range and the rest winners. But with only a few fails at a larger range you already will be negative. Thats for sure. I trade the BillyBar for over 10 months now, not leaving out a single day, so i know what i say here.

I would love to see some people showing charts who countered the fails at -20 and today for -10 and how they managed to get back to +25 with only taking the +5 TP by the end of the week.

12:40 here, i am still in the counter. I will leave home now and have lunch. Will see what it looks like when coming back. The range looks still small, but what does that helps. At some moment you have to make a final decision to take a new trade now and go for +11 pips for the same size to make back that loss or where to unlock the hedge. Or maybe even double up the size and go for +5 again somewhere. With the one trade i am up +14, the other one is -25.
  • #56,942
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:14am Mar 11, 2021 6:14am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Price could keep entering the range and keep breaking North, or it could enter the range and break South now. But until the South break actually happens, the bias remains long.
Yes, you said "My plan was if it failed, I would hit the 12-4am range with a large lot to fix it"

If you mean the current 12-4 range that already established over last night/morning, where would you do/enter that trade at larger lots then?

The 12-4 high trigger since the BillyBar was touched about 6 times so far going up for +20.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You could have entered long the first time with the next M15 bar that was also responsible for the break of the BillyBar. That is where it touched the high of the 12-4 for the first time AFTER the BillyBar. The retrace would have been -10. So at least a stop of that would helped here.

If you say "large lot to fix" then i guess you did not countered the BillyBar and therefor only look to make the +5 with such next trade on the 12-4 range. So not trying to do this next trade as a way of coming out of the counter by closing one side and let the other side move on until yo

My head is toast, so i need to leave home now and get some fresh air.
  • #56,943
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:31am Mar 11, 2021 6:31am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Hey Fagin. It doesn't really matter for me if losing money fast or losing money quickly. Losing money never feels good But so far i am doing fine. If you followed me, since last may 2020 i am up far over 180% by today (shouldn't be advertising here). So not a 25% a week like Billy is doing but still okay i think. A lot of that came from actually fixing the fails in a more random way then any methodical real planed in advance kind of thing. Thats the only thing that worries me. Because if you want to make a living from it you want...
OK cool, sounds like you have got it all in hand
  • #56,944
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:02am Mar 11, 2021 7:02am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes, you said "My plan was if it failed, I would hit the 12-4am range with a large lot to fix it" If you mean the current 12-4 range that already established over last night/morning, where would you do/enter that trade at larger lots then? The 12-4 high trigger since the BillyBar was touched about 6 times so far going up for +20. {image} You could have entered long the first time with the next M15 bar that was also responsible for the break of the BillyBar. That is where it touched the high of the 12-4 for the first time AFTER the BillyBar....
Yeah I didn't counter the Billy bar fail today due to a few reasons. The range was quite small so there was more chance of whip. And also, my overall bias was long, and I was waiting for price to prove me wrong before sticking on a counter. Price proved me right in this instance and bounced back up from the daily open. I closed the trade in profit.

I have also entered a few smaller trades as price has left the 12-4am zone North. Knowing if these go wrong, I can place a larger lot trade on the other side of the 12-4am range to get out of this sequence. This larger lot trade can also reverse obviously. This is where it gets interesting. This trade I would then counter and wait for another trigger.

I don't think this method could ever be fully mechanical in my honest opinion. You have made a decent return trading the Billy bar in the last 10 months, and that's without knowing a mechanical way to fix your trades. So perhaps you don't really need one, and what you are looking for does not actually exist.

To get out of my counters, I look for logical areas to exit. Daily open, yesterday's high, yesterday's low, pivot points, daily high, daily low etc. Am I always right? Hell no. But I enjoy the fight. Trading is not easy, and like I said once before, if we knew a method that always worked to fix any Billy bar fails, we would just trade that as our main trade instead.
  • #56,945
  • Mar 11, 2021 9:00am Mar 11, 2021 9:00am
Quoting birdland
{quote} of course we have a long bias. but after NY open i expect a short possibility.
DR1 was good to short and 00-00 line good to close the position.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,946
  • Mar 11, 2021 9:08am Mar 11, 2021 9:08am
Quoting birdland
{quote} DR1 was good to short and 00-00 line good to close the position.
Price has just tested DR1 again, and I have taken on another short.
  • #56,947
  • Edited 9:32am Mar 11, 2021 9:20am | Edited 9:32am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Price has just tested DR1 again, and I have taken on another short.
And just closed it at the high of the 12-4am range again. Will consider taking another short if price can close below yesterday's high (1.3938).

Edit - Looks like yesterday's high has provided support for now. Are we going to make the magic 70 one way or another today?
  • #56,948
  • Mar 11, 2021 9:47am Mar 11, 2021 9:47am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Yeah I didn't counter the Billy bar fail today due to a few reasons. The range was quite small so there was more chance of whip. And also, my overall bias was long, and I was waiting for price to prove me wrong before sticking on a counter. Price proved me right in this instance and bounced back up from the daily open. I closed the trade in profit.
So you didn´t take a stop loss at the oppsite end of the BillyBar, then exited it as soon as it came back just about over your entry to cover your trading costs.

Yes, the range was small but that made me think the exact opposite of what you say. If the range is rather small then my thoughts were that it`s also "easier" to come out of such counter. So that is why i decided for the counter instead of taking the -10 as a fixed loss to my account.

But now after thinking about it again while i type it doesn´t really makes it better haha. If the range is larger and you let it hit the opposite end no matter if putting the counter there or taking the loss the challenge is pretty much the same for me after that.

You then have to make up for these points with a new trade or come out of that hedge without doing a new trade.

Quote
To get out of my counters, I look for logical areas to exit. Daily open, yesterday's high, yesterday's low, pivot points, daily high, daily low etc. Am I always right? Hell no. But I enjoy the fight. Trading is not easy, and like I said once before, if we knew a method that always worked to fix any Billy bar fails, we would just trade that as our main trade instead.

Yes. I do know about these logical areas too but i do not understand how to make use of them in terms of coming out of the counter then. As far as i understood you want to have a valid new signal to the direction of your negative position of the failed trade you have locked-in. So you then can close the positive position, realize the gains at what ever it is at that point and you are left with the negative side, then you hope for price to move on in in your new signals direction until you are at least break even again for the points you had locked-in. If that fails you can counter it again or take the loss again. And again and again. You do that because of the new signal you got supporting you here with letting go one side. Not because you felt it was the right thing to do in the moment.

If trading the BillyBar break at high lots because you don´t want to trade a different more triggers/methods, i have to consider widening in spread while holding the trade locked-in or some other unepected un-cool moves of the market or my broker.

I am not sure how Billy is managing all that but i don´t want to see my trades next morning closed because price spiked or so and my 100 lots position on the BillyBar (while felt secured because it was "locked-in") now turned into a margin call. Yes you can then borrow from the next bank account you might still have money in and fund another account but is that good trading then?

Not only that. If you then need to carry the locked-in trade for x unkown time, days, weeks because you maybe get no new trigger in the direction you need, the negatie side might traveled on and you have now a -470 Pips on it. Yes the other side is still positive then and the difference is still small but as soon as you close the positive side you need to be sure to have still enough margin availble to keep carrying it until you can close it at the point where you hopefully made up for the failed trade.

See my chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example-2.jpg Size: 127 KB


As i came back home again this afternoon and watched the locked-in trade. I had a quick moment where i thought about to let go the still positive side where price was just about to come back to my entry point but i didn´t do that. The trade is still locked. It looks like i could have made the -10 (yes harry hindsight) but not very much more. It retraced up again. I am happy i didn´t do that. It might have just went south for -6 and then shooted up north again like it did.

Yes i will keep on doing and try my best what else there is i can do? I might get wiped out at some point because i still have no real plan for each and every situation but maybe thats just what every professional trader has to deal with and anyone telling you they know something just wish they would know something but in reality don´t.
  • #56,949
  • Mar 11, 2021 10:03am Mar 11, 2021 10:03am
here is a orientation technic i use.

on the pink arrow you can see that many longtraders are trapped, because the red candle was brutal like a gap. you can see it because it never revisited the low of the blue bar (blue arrow).

therefore this level up to RN 1.40 is a strong resistance zone and selling area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 res-zone.png Size: 59 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,950
  • Mar 11, 2021 10:18am Mar 11, 2021 10:18am
Quoting birdland
here is a orientation technic i use. on the pink arrow you can see that many longtraders are trapped, because the red candle was brutal like a gap. you can see it because it never revisited the low of the blue bar (blue arrow). therefore this level up to RN 1.40 is a strong resistance zone and selling area. {image}
That's great, thanks for sharing. One can never learn enough. I'll keep an eye out for these set ups in the future.
  • #56,951
  • Mar 11, 2021 10:28am Mar 11, 2021 10:28am
Quoting lddd
{quote} So you didn´t take a stop loss at the oppsite end of the BillyBar, then exited it as soon as it came back just about over your entry to cover your trading costs. Yes, the range was small but that made me think the exact opposite of what you say. If the range is rather small then my thoughts were that it`s also "easier" to come out of such counter. So that is why i decided for the counter instead of taking the -10 as a fixed loss to my account. But now after thinking about it again while i type it doesn´t really makes it better haha. If the...
No I didn't have a stop on my GU long today. But I had a large pending order waiting at the bottom of the 12-4am range, just in case.

Today would have been trickier to come out of the hedge with both sides in the plus. That is not always my goal though. The goal is to end the day in the plus. When I take a counter, one of the reasons I do it is because I find it quicker (and psychologically better for me). It gives me time to think about my next move. As long as I have made my daily target, I have no hesitation in closing the counter in negative at the end of the day. Hard to comment on today as I was not in a counter, but I think I would have closed my Long at around R1 because price bounced around there a lot, and if it had broken higher again, I would have taken another long. And waited to close the long again.

I didn't take a short today because price stayed above the daily open. Say if I had taken a short, I might have closed that for a small plus, when I saw price didn't go below the daily open. If it had gone below the daily open, and closed below the open, I might have taken another short. Each day will be different. Look at how the 5 minute or 15 minute bars are closing and then make your decision.
  • #56,952
  • Mar 11, 2021 10:29am Mar 11, 2021 10:29am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} That's great, thanks for sharing. One can never learn enough. I'll keep an eye out for these set ups in the future.
never;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,953
  • Mar 11, 2021 10:37am Mar 11, 2021 10:37am
Quoting birdland
here is a orientation technic i use. on the pink arrow you can see that many longtraders are trapped, because the red candle was brutal like a gap. you can see it because it never revisited the low of the blue bar (blue arrow). therefore this level up to RN 1.40 is a strong resistance zone and selling area. {image}
I wonder if this would also qualify as a z-line trade. I still don't understand them but Lem always talks about a pointy place to the left lol.
  • #56,954
  • Mar 11, 2021 12:36pm Mar 11, 2021 12:36pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I wonder if this would also qualify as a z-line trade. I still don't understand them but Lem always talks about a pointy place to the left lol.
Yes, it's a Z-Line, just once-removed. The original retrace back was too strong and didn't revisit straight away, waiting instead till this later move.

You could also simply look at it as a Supply Zone.
  • #56,955
  • Mar 11, 2021 12:45pm Mar 11, 2021 12:45pm
Some quick stats for the 8:15am break since the 11th of Feb 2021 (24 trading days)

It has given +5 on the first break on 20 out of 24 days (in most cases it actually gave a lot more than +5). No days were excluded, regardless of bar size.

This means we have had 4 fails (ranges on those days were approximately 14, 17, 21, and 10).

On all of the days where we have had success, it has NEVER retraced more than 15 pips (normally a lot less) before making the +5. In actual fact, it retraced double digits on only 7 days out of 20 successful days. This statistic probably tells a story as to why Billy always uses 15 pips to place a counter, if the bar is less than 15 pips. This also means if someone is worried about the Billy bar being too big, it would be prudent to have your SL or counter at 15 pips from the break. Any less than that and you are likely going to get whipsaw. Probably don't need to have an SL bigger than 15-16 pips because that seems to be the magic number. If it goes beyond that, chances are it is going to break the other side of the bar.

One of the above fails (from today actually) could have been avoided by placing your SL/counter 15 pips away. This would mean we have actually only had 3 fails in almost 5 weeks.
  • #56,956
  • Mar 11, 2021 1:03pm Mar 11, 2021 1:03pm
Quoting ia1979
Some quick stats for the 8:15am break since the 11th of Feb 2021 (24 trading days) It has given +5 on the first break on 20 out of 24 days (in most cases it actually gave a lot more than +5). No days were excluded, regardless of bar size. This means we have had 4 fails (ranges on those days were approximately 14, 17, 21, and 10). On all of the days where we have had success, it has NEVER retraced more than 15 pips (normally a lot less) before making the +5. In actual fact, it retraced double digits on only 7 days out of 20 successful days. This...
Another interesting statistic pertaining to the the above fails - if you then took the break of the very next 15 minute bar (8:15am-8:30am range), you would have got at least +5 every time, reducing your drawdown to -10. This is just a by the by, I'm not suggesting people should do it. And the sample size is very small.
  • #56,957
  • Mar 11, 2021 2:52pm Mar 11, 2021 2:52pm
Quoting ia1979
The goal is to end the day in the plus. When I take a counter, one of the reasons I do it is because I find it quicker (and psychologically better for me). It gives me time to think about my next move. As long as I have made my daily target, I have no hesitation in closing the counter in negative at the end of the day.
Yes its the same how i think and feel about it just that i don't have a real clue or plan how to actually come out at + by the end of the day with only looking for that +5 without these extra triggers/methods and also no real plan how to undo the counter without any further trade.

Right now i am +49 on the long side, -60 on the short. The ADR just now seemed to have reached this magic 70 everyone speaks about here. So an idea came to my head, maybe lets book the -49 now and pray for the lord price will now reverse from here? Then i thought wait a moment what if the 70 isn't the end for today or it just stagnates from here and goes up +5 -5 until tomorrow morning. I then would have to stay up this night and close the negative if price decides to go jut a bit higher. Same if the ADR 5 is reached for 100%. Who says it will then stop moving north and return. So probably that is not a good idea to clear the counter.
  • #56,958
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:02pm Mar 11, 2021 3:02pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Another interesting statistic pertaining to the the above fails - if you then took the break of the very next 15 minute bar (8:15am-8:30am range), you would have got at least +5 every time, reducing your drawdown to -10. This is just a by the by, I'm not suggesting people should do it. And the sample size is very small.
Hahahahaha, you just stumbled across the same thing I did a few months ago...the Billy-Bar 30. It works like a clockwork dream.

I never mentioned it as I felt the stream of methods away from Billy's work was large enough.

It's totally valid though.
  • #56,959
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:42pm Mar 11, 2021 3:42pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hahahahaha, you just stumbled across the same thing I did a few months ago...the Billy-Bar 30. It works like a clockwork dream. I never mentioned it as I felt the stream of methods away from Billy's work was large enough. It's totally valid though.
Haha great Lem, good to get additional confirmation
  • #56,960
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:44pm Mar 11, 2021 3:44pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes its the same how i think and feel about it just that i don't have a real clue or plan how to actually come out at + by the end of the day with only looking for that +5 without these extra triggers/methods and also no real plan how to undo the counter without any further trade. Right now i am +49 on the long side, -60 on the short. The ADR just now seemed to have reached this magic 70 everyone speaks about here. So an idea came to my head, maybe lets book the -49 now and pray for the lord price will now reverse from here? Then i thought...
No not a good idea. What if price spikes in the middle of the night?
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