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Real or Algo

  • #1,101
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:58am Mar 11, 2021 3:58am
Quoting swd
{quote}
Hi TT, Yes I was answering the first question you asked " WHY the prices are so consistent across the various broker mt4 platforms around the globe". The world is a very competitive place, and I mean in EVERYTHING.
Cheers swd, very much appreciated.




As to the other question, which I know is the focus of this thread, I really do not know the answer. To me it does not matter. I don't need it answering to be able to make money.

That, in essence, sums it up for me
  • #1,102
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:04am Mar 11, 2021 4:04am
Quoting TimeTells
Cheers swd, very much appreciated. As to the other question, which I know is the focus of this thread, I really do not know the answer. To me it does not matter. I don't need it answering to be able to make money. That, in essence, sums it up for me
Hi TT, I have to jump in here.

If this is the status then RickM is not wrong to use the word voodoo believers, right?

Traditional TA which is essentially believing in voodoo patterns made popular by scammers, charlatans and marketers isn't it? How wrong for someone to lable TA as such then?

Do you believe banks and institutional investors gamble billions base on voodoo beliefs, ie. Technical analysis? How can the banks justify this level of risk exposure to their resources and assets when the executives are charged with fiduciary responsibility to safeguard the banks survival and existence?
Know what you trade
  • #1,103
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:05am Mar 11, 2021 4:05am
Quoting swd
{quote}
However I do enjoy the chat that is going on and read as often as time allows me to, so do keep it up.
Thank you,

That is very good of you to say, sir.

I enjoy the read myself, from all the answers and questions.

We can thank Andy for opening the thread.

With a special thanks to BWilliam for pursuing the main discussion point we now discuss.
  • #1,104
  • Edited 4:28am Mar 11, 2021 4:13am | Edited 4:28am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi TT, I have to jump in here. If this is the status then RickM is not wrong to use the word voodoo believers, right? Traditional TA which is essentially believing in voodoo patterns made popular by scammers, charlatans and marketers isn't it? How wrong for someone to lable TA as such then?

Hi BW,

I have asked you recently to please explain to me what you see as traditional TA.

I am happy if you do not see my trading as TA. (I have put many of my charts & trades up recently, more than I wish to lol, seeking to be only a lurker ).



While I might call my trading TA (loosely), or Market Mechanics or Price Surfing also.

These are purely narrative labels to me that mean nothing when I open a chart to examine the current structure for a trade.

To take TP, on a consistent level, regardless of the narrative - is all I ask from FX.


I think you have done a fine job in showing your desire to make new traders wary of such popular scammers, charlatans and marketers.


I have no comment on such phrases as voodoo believers.

Some will try and say you are also one, with a single algo. Andy has answered that claim earlier causing me much laughter (he is a character is Moody)


EDIT: this was Andy's response for any who missed it
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
If that's the case then a Unicorn has most definitely wandered onto my charts and there are bigfoot footprints chasing after it. Same moves, same Unicons, same Squatch prints.

I keep an open mind.

I have a fridge magnet from Nat Geo that says

Question Everything

  • #1,105
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:16am Mar 11, 2021 4:16am
Quoting TimeTells
Hi BW, I have asked you recently to please explain to me what you see as traditional TA. I am happy if you do not see my trading as TA. (I have put many of my charts & trades up recently, more than I wish to lol, seeking to be only a lurker ). While I might call my trading TA (loosely), or Market Mechanics or Price Surfing also. These are purely narrative labels to me that mean nothing when I open a chart to examine the current structure for a trade. To take TP, on a consistent level, regardless of the narrative - is all I ask...
Question everything, that's my motto in trading.

Don't be an idiot is my adopted motto. Thanks to CP.

Now we have to believe that banks are allowed to gamble trillions of dollars because price touch the daily 200 SMA. Haleluia
Know what you trade
  • #1,106
  • Edited 4:43am Mar 11, 2021 4:19am | Edited 4:43am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Question everything, that's my motto in trading.
Now we have to believe that banks gamble billions of dollars because price touch the daily 200 SMA. Haleluia

Well I don;t know about that lol.

I have a real conspiracy theory .

I don't see much of those billions trillions hitting my mt4 screen at ANY time of the day I am trading.

I think we are maybe in our own retail universe.

But let's not drift from the main premise of this thread now.

  • #1,107
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:31am Mar 11, 2021 4:31am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi TT, I have to jump in here. If this is the status then RickM is not wrong to use the word voodoo believers, right? Traditional TA which is essentially believing in voodoo patterns made popular by scammers, charlatans and marketers isn't it? How wrong for someone to lable TA as such then? Do you believe banks and institutional investors gamble billions base on voodoo beliefs, ie. Technical analysis? How can the banks justify this level of risk exposure to their resources and assets when the executives are charged with fiduciary responsibility...
Yes voodoo & witch craft does exist. But not on our charts.
A single algo running things is a cop out for people who do not know how to trade, blame the boogey man.
TA is used by the experts to target weaker players in the market.
Professional traders with large pockets know the smaller traders are watching these levels, moving averages, support & resistance, highs & lows, pivots etc. etc,
so they know exactly where to trigger orders to their benefit.
Just follow the big money footprints.

I agree traditional TA is taught to the majority but incorrect use of something by the amateur does not mean it is voodoo or witchcraft.

CP is right on somethings & off track on others, you need to filter out to get the nuggets of gold. Don't believe everything on the internet - even me.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,108
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:32am Mar 11, 2021 4:32am
Quoting TimeTells
Well I don;t know about that lol. I have a real conspiracy theory . I don't see much of those billions hitting my mt4 screen at ANY time of the day I am trading. I think we are maybe in our own retail universe. But let's not drift from the main premise of this thread now.
TT, that's a "blasphemous" conspiracy theory to make. Time to register you with the forex trading Sunday school to refresh and reset you back on the right path. Just kidding, I can't help it.
Know what you trade
  • #1,109
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:38am Mar 11, 2021 4:38am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
TT, that's a "blasphemous" conspiracy theory to make. Time to register you with the forex trading Sunday school to refresh and reset you back on the right path. Just kidding, I can't help it.



Hahaaa, yes my apologies to the Thought Police. I was only joking, really. I will adhere to the conventional narratives, always.
  • #1,110
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:46am Mar 11, 2021 4:46am
Quoting TimeTells
Hahaaa, yes my apologies to the Thought Police. I was only joking, really. I will adhere to the conventional narratives, always.
In forex trading context, I am both deistic and agnostic.
Know what you trade
  • #1,111
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:51am Mar 11, 2021 4:51am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Yes voodoo & witch craft does exist. But not on our charts. A single algo running things is a cop out for people who do not know how to trade, blame the boogey man. TA is used by the experts to target weaker players in the market. Professional traders with large pockets know the smaller traders are watching these levels, moving averages, support & resistance, highs & lows, pivots etc. etc, so they know exactly where to trigger orders to their benefit. Just follow the big money footprints. I agree traditional TA is taught to the majority...
The single Algo hypothesis being discussed in this thread isn’t being used as an excuse of a failure to trade. On the contrary it’s being discussed as a possible reason for the same moves occurring on a more than regular basis that could be exploited.
Cheers.
  • #1,112
  • Edited 5:31am Mar 11, 2021 5:09am | Edited 5:31am
Some would say the SNB are the ultimate crooks of the forex world,

"On 12 January 2015, Jean-Pierre Danthine, the vice-chairman of the SNB, went on television and said:
"We are convinced that the minimum exchange rate must remain the cornerstone of our monetary policy."
When, three days later, the SNB did the exact opposite, it was a complete surprise to the market.
The response was dramatic."

Now THAT'S what I call predicting the future price !

But in all seriousness, I think that's a good example of a group of people being aware of a future move and more importantly having time to position for that move at the expense of other traders in the dark.

So (and this is not a wind up BW), I am interested to know how the (master) algo would have handled things over these days. Was it "talking" with the SNB in advance of the move? ...that would bring up a whole new question of who's in control of this algo and I don't want to go down that path again. But it would be interesting to hear what u think happened as the Swissy smashed through every level on the chart.

Yes, I really should have used the EU chart as that was the unpeg, but when I scrolled back there was missing data right at that point in my chart LOL, Suspicious that

EDIT...I mean I should have shown the EURCHF chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Swissy Fraud.png Size: 58 KB
  • #1,113
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:18am Mar 11, 2021 5:18am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} The single Algo hypothesis being discussed in this thread isn’t being used as an excuse of a failure to trade. On the contrary it’s being discussed as a possible reason for the same moves occurring on a more than regular basis that could be exploited. Cheers.
The market prices quoted on most MT4 platforms are aggregated from one to several sources. so they can be similar or produce the same cndlestick patterns, only some 4 hour candles could vary due to timee differences, but otherwise the differnces can be very minor ie. the 5th digit price.

Brokers can run their book internally of course, trading against their clients, using MT4 plugins to freeze & delay as required, tough there are less of those brokers nowadays. Probably only 2-5% of retail traders trade with real interbank prices via ecn pricing where the broker is only making the commissions or the difference in Bid-Ask.

Price Charts can look the same, as can fruit or produce grown in different countries, but it is not all grown by a single farmer.
Until someone produces actual tangible evidence of this single algo and who owns it, it will remain a conspiracy theory in my book.
Over 1000 posts now on this thread and yet to see any evidence.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,114
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:25am Mar 11, 2021 5:25am
Quoting Shabs19
The market prices quoted on most MT4 platforms are aggregated from one to several sources. so they can be similar or produce the same cndlestick patterns, only some 4 hour candles could vary due to timee differences, but otherwise the differnces can be very minor ie. the 5th digit price. Brokers can run their book internally of course, trading against their clients, using MT4 plugins to freeze & delay as required, tough there are less of those brokers nowadays. Probably only 2-5% of retail traders trade with real interbank prices via ecn...
Ofc it's a conspiracy theory. Believers are not interested in the proof.
Only TA practitioners defending their turf are demanding proof.

What believers are saying and you don't seem to get it or deliberately ignore what moodybot wrote,
"as a possible reason for the same moves occurring on a more than regular basis that could be exploited."
Know what you trade
  • #1,115
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:54am Mar 11, 2021 5:54am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Time for an update on yesterday's post of GA levels. A new, ST level has developed at 1.8062'ish, which makes sense given the top level in the recent range is at 1.8095/1.8105. The bottom level in this range is 1.7995, which has been heavily tested today, but is holding up pretty well given the assault it is under right now. Yesterday I took a buy at 1.8016, and jumped out at 1.8054. As stated yesterday, I will start thinking of a sell campaign if the 1.7995 level is sustainably breached. Lots of probing of 1.7995. All other levels remain...
Morning all, time for another GA level update.
The level at 1.7995 has been breached, and the level at 1.7955 is being re-addressed in PA as I am typing this. Standby for a change in bias, right? Time will tell. There are several intermediate levels between here and 1.7795, but that seems to be our destination, should this move prove out. I've had a good week working this pair above 1.7995. Let's seen where this goes today.
  • #1,116
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:23am Mar 11, 2021 6:23am
It seems hard to accept that there is a single algo controlling what is by nature a decentralised forex market. Each major currency has it's own central bank setting out policy and forecasts for it's currency in the worlds markets. Whether central bank power is devolved from some higher power I don't know, and I don't think if that were the case we would ever know about it anyway. We just don't move in those circles.

When central bank policy needs to be enacted, it may or may not be able to do this on it's own. I note that for instance in 1992 Black Wednesday several large hedge funds were able to stop the Bank of England in it's attempt to support it's own currency, the GBP, ultimately forcing them out of the European ERM. So even a central bank is vulnerable to "syndicates" and large players.

Knowing what we know about human nature, is is possible that one company, person or consortium has ultimate control of the markets? That it's competitors do not form their own group to rival them, and compete? This is how life is. What might appear as a single power usually is not when viewed behind the scenes. So I don't believe there is a single algo controlling all of the currencies in the world, commodities and Treasury bond market.

I think what we are seeing are a bunch of smaller algos's whose net effect is a certain type of behaviour that we can see on a chart, say like congestion, breakout, flags, accumulation, distribution, etc. They are the things we can see played out by buildings full of computers and switching technology the world over. What happened to all of those pit traders and chart experts from the 80's and 90's? hmmm well maybe what they knew got automated?

We know the market has to move, HAS to move, otherwise nobody makes anything. There are a bunch of riskless algos that run which are very short term that are able to complete thousands of trades a day for maybe half a pip each at size. The bread and butter of a bank or any fund. Then there are speculative algos that run backed by investors money, your typical fund algos that return 10-15% / year and yield commissions for the fund, and a whole host of other stuff, including kickbacks and commissions per trade from certain venues.

Depending on which part of the world you're in, certain opportunities might not even exist, I'm talking about co-location, access to high speed fibre, deals done under the table oncerning who is nearest to what exchange and so on. It's a complicated world, each seeks to take a small portion of what they can to survive. Collaboration as we know makes things easier, so it is no surprise to hear about scandals in the trading world, selling this traffic to that fund so they can front run the clients, LIBOR fixing, etc. If there is a single master algo moving the markets, it seems that the big banks and players are not aware of it anymore than we are, otherwise they would not need to collaborate and "fix" and run entire departments of quantitative analysts and programmers to try and beat the market.

Just some ideas.
  • #1,117
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:29am Mar 11, 2021 6:29am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} This is going on all over the world, all week long, in this decentralized Forex market.

This is such an interesting point, as I do fully understand this, while so many traders can see repeatable activity in a market that is tradeable, when it is a DECENTRALISED market. So my question to FTI, as a Tier Mgr, would be (and I do not mean literally to him, at this stage in his life and circumstance), is that in this decentralised market HOW can we be all getting the same (or similar) price feed in different places around the world when we look...
I'm waiting for the ECB, so I've had time to skim the thread. I saw your comments. The market is decentralize, in that, there is not a single controlling authority over the forex. It's a system that everyone uses, but actual "control" resides in multiple places. It's a single system, with various data feeds, that all the banks use. The system presents transaction results for all to see, and those transactions are graphically presented to everyone in the form of charts. Every flicker of a candle represents a financial transaction, an exchange of money. The banks have access to all the data, but most of us in the non-banking world only receive a portion of it (in my charts, which I pay dearly for, I have access to several data feeds, each of which represents 85% of all transactions. You don't need every transaction of a $6 Trillion daily feed to get an accurate picture of what is going on). The charts I see, right now, are not an illusion, since they accurately represent what is going on in the forex. So, single system, decentralized control (meaning, if you are a bank in the US, you are controlled by the Fed, if you are a bank in Japan, the BOJ, etc.), data coming into the single system, and brokers and charting services buying chunks of the data (these guys have to pay for the data). So, that's a simplified view of the thing, in a nut shell. It's probably worth noting that the forex is actually running 24X7, but not operational over the weekend, when cleanup work is performed and maintenance carried out.

And yes regarding fti's experience with Mt4. He was used to seeing orders filled differently from the Mt4 performance, where he was not actually connected to the forex but under the control of his broker's system. He could see the difference and it sounded like his broker was a bit of a bucket shop.
  • #1,118
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:36am Mar 11, 2021 6:36am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I'm waiting for the ECB, so I've had time to skim the thread. I saw your comments. The market is decentralize, in that, there is not a single controlling authority over the forex. It's a system that everyone uses, but actual "control" resides in multiple places. It's a single system, with various data feeds, that all the banks use. The system presents transaction results for all to see, and those transactions are graphically presented to everyone in the form of charts. Every flicker of a candle represents a financial transaction, an exchange...
Anticipating the next question, let me add, that the reason you seen similar chart patterns in a decentralized market using a single system is, that the banks operate regional offices all over the world, and they all have the same constraints and controls in every office in the world. Same trading practices, procedures, processes, and controls, no matter where you are. But, there are differences between Tokyo, London and NY, and it's important to understand those differences, especially NY.
  • #1,119
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:40am Mar 11, 2021 6:40am
Quoting GEfx
Morning all, time for another GA level update. The level at 1.7995 has been breached, and the level at 1.7955 is being re-addressed in PA as I am typing this. Standby for a change in bias, right? Time will tell. There are several intermediate levels between here and 1.7795, but that seems to be our destination, should this move prove out. I've had a good week working this pair above 1.7995. Let's seen where this goes today.
From the manner you write your posts about trading you are more a fundamentals trading with TA playing the role of trade entry. That's typical description of the "professional" retail forex trader. It's quite easy to recognise such traders with their posts on FF.
Know what you trade
  • #1,120
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:41am Mar 11, 2021 6:41am
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
The charts I see, right now, are not an illusion, since they accurately represent what is going on in the forex.

And yes regarding fti's experience with Mt4. He was used to seeing orders filled differently from the Mt4 performance, where he was not actually connected to the forex but under the control of his broker's system. He could see the difference and it sounded like his broker was a bit of a bucket shop.


Hi GEfx,

If we (retail) are getting, on our MT4 screens the same pricing (~) as Tier are seeing also, then that helps me yes.

I had a quick look at the Saxo site where they show current pricing. (they are also an LP through my Broker).

And there's was close to the pip from my current mt4 chart.

(But in 4 digit offer NOT 5 digit ?)

If Tier trade in 4 digit (?) that could provide some interesting profit on the last digit for someone (not retail).

Thank you.
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