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Real or Algo

  • #1,081
  • Mar 10, 2021 8:38pm Mar 10, 2021 8:38pm
Quoting TimeTells
All the best BW, and to all who have contributed. I ain't got more lol. . {image}
Pete, without permission you can’t leave the thread.. or to stop posting......,
  • #1,082
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:13pm Mar 10, 2021 9:13pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Thank you for your contribution GEfx.
BWilliam, you are more than welcome. I have to say, however, that your question seems very basic, trader-101-level stuff. The proper use of TA and what someone should expect from it seems...apparent if not obvious, at least to the experienced traders here. Perhaps this is the beginning of some soon-to-be-nuanced point about this algo thing. But I don't get it and wish we could just get to the point, it there is one. The premise you started with regarding TA is fallacious, so where is this going?
  • #1,083
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:18pm Mar 10, 2021 9:18pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
Pete, without permission you can’t leave the thread.. or to stop posting......,

Hahaa, cheers Andy, you will cost me sleep (again), as my problem is I think about everything (too much) incl things like this algo stuff. (But only to a point).



In relation to Forex, the algo proposition has been around for years. (We know there are many lower level algos, that is a given).

What is new, and what, you Andy & BW, have brought to this "thinking table” thread here is the concept of a Single Algo.


Now we could just say, impossible, ridiculous, outrageous, and just STOP thinking about it.

And say Narrative over.


OR

We could discuss it for interest, if even NOT for its absolute end point.


And maybe others, like myself, who are stuck right on the Horns Of A Dilemma (my age group know this phrase well) in regards to this Single Algo ‘suggestion’, and I am stuck because there is no peer group assessed Empirical Evidence on the subject (for or against).

Folks ask for PROOF of the single algo.

But in science we might first try to DISPROVE the existance first.

And as yet there is no info I can find that definitively says "no chance" (NO CHANCE) of a single algo,
other than opinion and belief there can't be a single algo, being the very 'same' as for those that state there might be an SA.

So how can a proper discussion be over, when neither side has ABSOLUTE proof that their contention is correct (or wrong).

Discussion still ON in that case lol.


I still like to hear the discussions you folks here bring up around this particular “stretching” of our minds, on any and all, SA possibilities.

Others with NO interest would just leave I imagine, yet somehow there seems a compulsion to ask the discussion participants to close this thread as a dead thread.
(which it may well be, who knows).

Phew, sorry folks.
  • #1,084
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:43pm Mar 10, 2021 9:43pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hahaa, cheers Andy, you will cost me sleep (again), as my problem is I think about everything (too much) incl things like this algo stuff. (But only to a point). In relation to Forex, the algo proposition has been around for years. (We know there are many lower level algos, that is a given). What is new, and what, you Andy & BW, have brought to this "thinking table” thread here is the concept of a Single Algo. Now we could just say, impossible, ridiculous, outrageous, and just STOP thinking about it. And say Narrative over. OR We could discuss...
I think those on Team Algo are like people who believe in unicorns and bigfoot: they insist that non-believers prove they don't exist, rather than present proof that they do. I've asked a few dozen questions about The Algo, but no one ever answers them. They seem intent on the maintenance of their cognitive consistency, which is a fancy way of saying that their brains will not process the challenge. I challenge them to present one...just one...piece of empirical evidence (not their assumption that "the candles seem under the control of a non-human entity") that Our Friend the Algo exists. This is the time for proof, not "I think" or "I believe". It's really that easy. Without some proof, the thread is just mental masturbation. That's pretty disturbing imagery, but someone had to say it!
  • #1,085
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:54pm Mar 10, 2021 9:54pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
I think those on Team Algo are like people who believe in unicorns and bigfoot: they insist that non-believers prove they don't exist, rather than present proof that they do. I've asked a few dozen questions about The Algo, but no one ever answers them. !

Cheers GEfx, Team Algo would answer in due course I imagine.


From my perspective only.


In light of all that Andy & BW present.

Let me stretch on something further that was ‘mentioned to me in passing’ (yes, by G) about 2 years ago.

It is still compartmentalised in my brain and gets trotted out on weekends & public holidays (just joking).

And that is, what was offered to me as a thinking exercise (and one I've not yet resolved) that being ….


The Market Is Its Own Liquidity


But how could that be. That might be mental mast’ing again, as GEfx quite eloquently put it I thought.


About the SA I stated there is no proof FOR.

As there is NO proof against.


Yet people want proof. We always do.

(And cheers for hanging around GEfx cause you might tease out some more & more info if we all THINK about it.)


So when there is NO proof. We are only left with, and can only employ … THINKING.

And that’s what discussions bring out.


You enjoy FTI, as I do, so I think this was one of his jpeg’s. Which I immediately download
(I called it lateral thinking)


.
Attached Image
  • #1,086
  • Edited 11:46pm Mar 10, 2021 10:07pm | Edited 11:46pm
Quoting GEfx
I've asked a few dozen questions about The Algo, but no one ever answers them.
As I have discovered that's how the Algo works. My thoughts. Small traders can't move the market. So then they act there is no big movements. But there are stop losses placed higher and lower the channel. Everyone can see limit orders in the orderbook and market orders executed too. But no one can see stops. So how big player decide where to go? They are using fill or kill order types to check for stop loss value up and down. That's why after certain flat there will be some tests - candles with big wicks. Then simple math applied and you can say how many stop losses are there. Remember that big player can't believe in magic. It need proofs. It need the liquidity and the guarantees. And only stops are the guarantees of liquidity. And only big player with huge amount of money can create fill or kill order with the amount bigger than all possible orders exist. Few years ago it was possible on bitfinex crypto exchange to create FOK orders with any size, even if you have no money for that. It were funny days. We knew where stops were and exact sizes. Now it is impossible, so only big players can do that.
Observer effect
  • #1,087
  • Mar 10, 2021 10:30pm Mar 10, 2021 10:30pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers GEfx, Team Algo would answer in due course I imagine. From my perspective only. In light of all that Andy & BW present. Let me stretch on something further that was ‘mentioned to me in passing’ (yes, by G) about 2 years ago. It is still compartmentalised in my brain and gets trotted out on weekends & public holidays (just joking). And that is, what was offered to me as a thinking exercise (and one I've not yet resolved) that being …. The Market Is Its Own Liquidity But how could that be. That might be mental mast’ing again, as GEfx...
Cheers to you TimeTells. Yes, fti is the best person on FF. He is incredibly giving and thoughtful, a real thought leader, an experienced tier 1 trader and fx manager, a very good trader, and I think of him as a good friend. I owe him more than he will every know. And, in a really significant way, he is proof that humans are the market, not the Wizard of Algo. Your post got me thinking -- yes it did!!! -- about a few things, including the following.

I offer the following as proof that humans control the FX market. There are a few dozen Tier 1-3 banks in the world that employ thousands of traders who trade every day. You can go to cities like New York, Chicago, London, Frankfurt, Sidney, Tokyo, etc. and actually see them going to work everyday. You can read about their customers use of these banks to perform their currency moves, and see in their financial filings what their fx activities entail. You can the banks trading rooms to see them at work. There are also hundreds of hedge funds, insurance companies, etc that employ thousands of traders all over the work that trade the FX every day. In those companies that file public financial statements, you can go to their 10Ks and seen financial evidence of their funding, risk measures, and profits. You can go to Fed cities like New York, Chicago, St. Louis, etc and visit Federal Reserve banks, see what they do in fx trading and market control, go to Washington DC and visit the Treasury Office or the SEC and see what they do. And all of these organizations have published, or been the subject of other published material, tens of thousands of articles, research, reports, documents that contain information about their rolls in the fx, their investments, their trading metrics, their controls of the forex systems and its operations, their computer systems, and their impact on, and responsibilities in determining currency prices. You can see movies, documentaries, and YouTube videos about what they do, as they are doing it. And in all of this, you can directly trace all this information and activity to the formation of candles on your charts. This is going on all over the world, all week long, in this decentralized Forex market. These are the people, assets, processes, controls, etc on the Forex. It's the list of proof I'd offer to prove my point of view.

To you guys on Team Algo, show me your list.
  • #1,088
  • Mar 10, 2021 10:56pm Mar 10, 2021 10:56pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hahaa, cheers Andy, you will cost me sleep (again), as my problem is I think about everything (too much) incl things like this algo stuff. (But only to a point). In relation to Forex, the algo proposition has been around for years. (We know there are many lower level algos, that is a given). What is new, and what, you Andy & BW, have brought to this "thinking table” thread here is the concept of a Single Algo. Now we could just say, impossible, ridiculous, outrageous, and just STOP thinking about it. And say Narrative over. OR We could discuss...
Thank you TimeTells for your contribution. You wrote an excellent post then follow up to repeat yourself to make it clear. I hope members don't deliberately ignore what you've written. In the real world, you will be invited to occupy the prestigious facilitator/moderator chair. Anyway, thank you again.
Know what you trade
  • #1,089
  • Mar 10, 2021 11:03pm Mar 10, 2021 11:03pm
Quoting TimeTells
You enjoy FTI, as I do, so I think this was one of his jpeg’s.
I wondered if you or others here had read fti's teachings, (let say early years).

I have accepted his commentary that the Asian, Euro and US sessions each have their own market makers to ensure liquidity and that the big boys behave themselves. That is not to say they wouldn't work in conjunct with each other and use computer software to balance their books. If this is so, then obviously algorithms would be used in these software programs. Does this make it any less real?

Hey TT like your last chart. What I see is price just returning from whence it came.
Good Trading
  • #1,090
  • Mar 10, 2021 11:19pm Mar 10, 2021 11:19pm
Quoting ryuryu
As I have discovered that's how the Algo works. My thoughts. Small traders can't move the market. So then they act there is no big movements. But there are stop losses placed higher and lower the channel. Everyone can see limit orders in the orderbook and market orders executed too. But no one can see stops. So how big player decide where to go? They are using fill or kill order types to check for stop loss value up and down. That's why after certain flat there will be some tests - candles with big wicks. Then simple math applied and you...
Hi ryuryu, thank you for your contribution.

Quoting aud
I wondered if you or others here had read fti's teachings, (let say early years). I have accepted his commentary that the Asian, Euro and US sessions each have their own market makers to ensure liquidity and that the big boys behave themselves. That is not to say they wouldn't work in conjunct with each other and use computer software to balance their books. If this is so, then obviously algorithms would be used in these software programs. Does this make it any less real? Hey TT like your last chart. What I see is price just returning from...
Hi aud, thank you for your contribution.

Thank you for your contribution to all those who contribute below this post.

*** By real, it means price is determined by natural supply and demand in an auction market.
Know what you trade
  • #1,091
  • Mar 11, 2021 12:56am Mar 11, 2021 12:56am
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
Cheers to you TimeTells.
Yes, fti is the best person on FF. He is incredibly giving and thoughtful, a real thought leader, an experienced tier 1 trader and fx manager, a very good trader, and I think of him as a good friend. I owe him more than he will every know. And, in a really significant way, he is proof that humans are the market, not the Wizard of Algo.
This is going on all over the world, all week long, in this decentralized Forex market. These are the people, assets, processes, controls, etc on the Forex. It's the list of...


Hi GEfx
Yes, his story is one for the ages, remarkable.
(Am I right to say that when he came 'down' to his own mt4 personal trading he said he noticed things weren't the same for retail traders as his trading Tier.)



This is going on all over the world, all week long, in this decentralized Forex market.

This is such an interesting point, as I do fully understand this, while so many traders can see repeatable activity in a market that is tradeable,
when it is a DECENTRALISED market.

So my question to FTI, as a Tier Mgr, would be (and I do not mean literally to him, at this stage in his life and circumstance), is that in this decentralised market
HOW can we be all getting the same (or similar) price feed in different places around the world when we look at our screens.

(I reckon we don't obviously get Tier pricing)

But WHO is the prime price feeder, ie who is the market maker that, almost algorithmically (), paints the illusion of price on ALL our screens so that we can push a buy-sell button.

I cannot see that it can be independent price action at the Retail level (while at Tier price might well be negotiable).

Is the high and low of the day a price that Tier ever bought or sold at.

Or is retail in its own little world and therefore maybe algo controlled?
  • #1,092
  • Mar 11, 2021 1:01am Mar 11, 2021 1:01am
Quoting aud
{quote} I wondered if you or others here had read fti's teachings, (let say early years). I have accepted his commentary that the Asian, Euro and US sessions each have their own market makers to ensure liquidity and that the big boys behave themselves. That is not to say they wouldn't work in conjunct with each other and use computer software to balance their books. If this is so, then obviously algorithms would be used in these software programs. Does this make it any less real? Hey TT like your last chart. What I see is price just returning from...


Cheers aud, yes I did

And yes lol, back to where it all began (Dickey Betts ).

BUT not always and I was tricked early on with this, when they DON”T return - as bad as a tma grind ffs
so I always first look for “confirmation, as probability” (but I won’t go into my how, as it’s honestly up to each trader, and I am not always right).

all the best
  • #1,093
  • Mar 11, 2021 1:17am Mar 11, 2021 1:17am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers GEfx, Team Algo would answer in due course I imagine. From my perspective only. In light of all that Andy & BW present. Let me stretch on something further that was ‘mentioned to me in passing’ (yes, by G) about 2 years ago. It is still compartmentalised in my brain and gets trotted out on weekends & public holidays (just joking). And that is, what was offered to me as a thinking exercise (and one I've not yet resolved) that being …. The Market Is Its Own Liquidity But how could that be. That might be mental mast’ing again, as GEfx...
one of the best comments i have read in a long time
  • #1,094
  • Mar 11, 2021 1:19am Mar 11, 2021 1:19am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I think those on Team Algo are like people who believe in unicorns and bigfoot: they insist that non-believers prove they don't exist, rather than present proof that they do. I've asked a few dozen questions about The Algo, but no one ever answers them. They seem intent on the maintenance of their cognitive consistency, which is a fancy way of saying that their brains will not process the challenge. I challenge them to present one...just one...piece of empirical evidence (not their assumption that "the candles seem under the control of a...
If that's the case then a Unicorn has most definitely wandered onto my charts and there are bigfoot footprints chasing after it.
Same moves, same Unicons, same Squatch prints.
  • #1,095
  • Mar 11, 2021 1:29am Mar 11, 2021 1:29am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi GEfx Yes, his story is one for the ages, remarkable. (Am I right to say that when he came 'down' to his own mt4 personal trading he said he noticed things weren't the same for retail traders as his trading Tier.) This is going on all over the world, all week long, in this decentralized Forex market. This is such an interesting point, as I do fully understand this, while so many traders can see repeatable activity in a market that is tradeable, when it is a DECENTRALISED market. So my question to FTI, as a Tier Mgr, would be (and I do...
Cheers TT,

In my opinon, this is one of the best evidence (if not the best) for an algo existence. Because it means that somehow, at a certain level, all LPs consolidate all orders in the market at any time.

Maybe there is a simple explanation for this, but I just couldnt figured it out.

Maybe some of those believing that there is no algo would step in and illuminate us.

B
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #1,096
  • Mar 11, 2021 1:41am Mar 11, 2021 1:41am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi GEfx Yes, his story is one for the ages, remarkable. (Am I right to say that when he came 'down' to his own mt4 personal trading he said he noticed things weren't the same for retail traders as his trading Tier.) This is going on all over the world, all week long, in this decentralized Forex market. This is such an interesting point, as I do fully understand this, while so many traders can see repeatable activity in a market that is tradeable, when it is a DECENTRALISED market. So my question to FTI, as a Tier Mgr, would be (and I do...
The answer is fairly straightforward. Banks, hedge funds and possibly even brokers run arbitrage against futures prices and each others spot pricing to ensure that any large deviations are corrected in a few microseconds. It is also liquidity providing for short periods of time on an otherwise thin market of which futures is even thinner.

Forex is unusual in terms of the last look filling process on offer to retailers, I don't think you get thst in interbank. But basically a bank or fund can flash prices for bid and ask to attract punters, and when they get a bite they have a couple of hundred milliseconds to complete the fill or change the pricing to slip the client in effect. Depends on the order type but retailers get only a limited set of those. The stage is very different a few levels above a retailer.
  • #1,097
  • Mar 11, 2021 2:02am Mar 11, 2021 2:02am
Quoting swd
{quote} The answer is fairly straightforward. Banks, hedge funds and possibly even brokers run arbitrage against futures prices and each others spot pricing to ensure that any large deviations are corrected in a few microseconds. It is also liquidity providing for short periods of time on an otherwise thin market of which futures is even thinner.

Cheers swd,

Thank you for your reply.

I understand the meanings of all words.

What I need now is to process it into workable context for me.

(I am pure retail, it might take time before I have questions ).

Thx again.
  • #1,098
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:39am Mar 11, 2021 3:39am
Quoting swd
{quote}
The answer is fairly straightforward.

Hi swd,

I am working through the whole process of activity from your answer in my head as best I can.

There is a gap in the process that I can't "fill" in my mind yet, but it would help me, so I hope you can expand for me a little.


My question

"But WHO is the prime price feeder, ie who is the market maker that, almost algorithmically (), paints the illusion of price on ALL our screens so that we can push a buy-sell button."


I understood that we at Retail rec'd our pricing from a Prime Liquidity Provider that our Broker has an arrangement with.

I sensed this was high level LP that maybe fed through other smaller LPs.



Now I think from your detailed answer that our market price is fed by any number of entities all creating a bid-ask for others to take up.

"The answer is fairly straightforward. Banks, hedge funds and possibly even brokers run arbitrage against futures prices and each others spot pricing to ensure that any large deviations are corrected in a few microseconds."


Or maybe I am thinking wrongly now as to which question you referenced. You might be answering my question as to WHY the prices are so consistent across the various broker mt4 platforms around the globe.

I would understand that deviations must be corrected or "would" be corrected to take advantage of price inefficiencies at a high level (NOT retail).
And this correction most likely would be at IB or Tier level.

I hope I have worded this ok.

If your answer is related to the "similar pricing" then I have it now, and thank you.
  • #1,099
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:54am Mar 11, 2021 3:54am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi swd, I am working through the whole process of activity from your answer in my head as best I can. There is a gap in the process that I can't "fill" in my mind yet, but it would help me, so I hope you can expand for me a little. My question "But WHO is the prime price feeder, ie who is the market maker that, almost algorithmically (), paints the illusion of price on ALL our screens so that we can push a buy-sell button." I understood that we at Retail rec'd our pricing from a Prime Liquidity Provider that our Broker has an arrangement...
Hi TT,

Yes I was answering the first question you asked " WHY the prices are so consistent across the various broker mt4 platforms around the globe". The world is a very competitive place, and I mean in EVERYTHING. There is almost always more than 1 of something competing with something else. Within trading, the playing field is not equal. The giants like Bridgewater, Renaissance, Two Sigma, Blackrock simply have more money and power than some of the other outfits and funds. They have better tech, faster lines and smarter people. It's a competition. Markets have thin volume because why would you stick several million top of book at a price that someone else can exploit easily leaving you with a problem of back-filling to makeup for the loss incurred by a market now moving rapidly away from you.

As to the other question, which I know is the focus of this thread, I really do not know the answer. To me it does not matter. I don't need it answering to be able to make money. There are a bunch of patterns and "things" that happen every day or week within the chart and that is good enough for me. However I do enjoy the chat that is going on and read as often as time allows me to, so do keep it up.
  • #1,100
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:55am Mar 11, 2021 3:55am
Quoting BWilliam
On Tuesday I asked if anyone is able to make a prediction of Wednesdays market, especially GU where I made a prediction for Tuesday that it's was headed north towards 1.4006. It traded a intraday high at 1.39257 in a bullish market. Read my earlier post for the details. Given such a Tuesday market most traders naturally guess that Wednesday market will continue to move towards 1.4006 target as previously called. However, the algo already indicated the Wednesday strong intraday top level at 1.3945. The entire day the market traded twice towards this...
ehi Bwilliam,
my anwer-question would be, why you need to know how the market will trade in the next 1 minute, 5 minutes and so on?... As you said before:
"There is a certain degree that the market is very predictable. There is also a certain degree that the market is random. A Professional trader understands this concept and adds it to his trading arsenal." unquote CP

From my point of view (at least for now) our duty is to enter in those random zones (created minute after minute) where the market is very predictable.
So George comes into my mind: just wait in the playground zone.

But i dont know if you consider this TA or not
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