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Real or Algo

  • #1,061
  • Edited 11:20am Mar 10, 2021 10:27am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting calebfx
{quote} One question only, you don't have to spill the entire beans but how can one predict these levels you talk about? Like you said markets have memory true so any information would be appreciated. Cheers
I don't wish to drag this thread off course.
The OP made a statement whether a single algo controls the market, I don't prescribe to that theory.
Smacks of conspiracy, surely regulators would spot this and act, like they did with Libor rate fixing.

Only evidence provided was the market can turn to the pip, at these so called math based algo levels, that can be predicted ahead of time.
and TA is totally useless, as it is subjective. I beg to differ, you can see these "predicted" levels and trade with simple tools.

Is there manipulation in the markets ? Yes there is, but that is the natural course of doing business.

Pumi is along the right lines, you will find by observation what works & what doesn't. Beans are expensive, now do your homework.

Edit: I will slip back out of this thread here now, made my point.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,062
  • Edited 11:44am Mar 10, 2021 11:29am | Edited 11:44am
After reading the many posts on here from many members I gather a huge misunderstanding about this single master algo. It's seems the general understanding of algo is about levels. Like support and resistance levels or supply and demand zones, price action, candlestick pattern, order blocks, etc. It's not. Far from it. What's written by members here are their understanding derived from traditional technical analysis. For those who wish to learn more, read CP's thread. He wrote with lots of details. Post #2 is the most important to grasp to set a proper foundation.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...arters-request?

The main thing to understand is this post that's directly related to this single master algo.

"There is a certain degree that the market is very predictable. There is also a certain degree that the market is random. A Professional trader understands this concept and adds it to his trading arsenal." unquote CP
Know what you trade
  • #1,063
  • Mar 10, 2021 12:12pm Mar 10, 2021 12:12pm
Quoting BWilliam
After reading the many posts on here from many members I gather a huge misunderstanding about this single master algo. It's seems the general understanding of algo is about levels. Like support and resistance levels or supply and demand zones, price action, candlestick pattern, order blocks, etc. It's not. Far from it. What's written by members here are their understanding derived from traditional technical analysis. For those who wish to learn more, read CP's thread. He wrote with lots of details. Post #2 is the most important to grasp to set a...
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But that's exactly what you asked for, " post one single level on any pair on any day he select"
You talk about levels in every post, " I have made plenty of algo levels post before price reaches those levels"
"It's your turn to post proof of your ability to call future algo levels"

Levels, Levels , Levels.

I have given you all the price levels which you asked for to watch for yesterday, before EU & NY markets opened, with no maths or mystery algo whatsoever.
I make no claims to be a super trader, I am always learning, that's why I participate in threads like these, just to get some ideas to improve to the next level in my thinking.

I am not trying to convert you or criticise , just making my point end of.
We agree to disagree.

My mentor:
Attached Image
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,064
  • Mar 10, 2021 12:32pm Mar 10, 2021 12:32pm
Quoting BWilliam
After reading the many posts on here from many members I gather a huge misunderstanding about this single master algo. It's seems the general understanding of algo is about levels. Like support and resistance levels or supply and demand zones, price action, candlestick pattern, order blocks, etc. It's not. Far from it. What's written by members here are their understanding derived from traditional technical analysis. For those who wish to learn more, read CP's thread. He wrote with lots of details. Post #2 is the most important to grasp to set a...
If you refer to my posts and charts don't read too much on it as I have not shown clearly the driver or the basis to my calculations and how everything is connected. The Order Blocks and other Xmas tree are just decorations.
  • #1,065
  • Mar 10, 2021 1:21pm Mar 10, 2021 1:21pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi BWilliam, Sorry, I had to run a few errands and had a dentist appointment this afternoon. I'll stick with the GA, but if you require a different pair, just let me know. This is from my chart work from this past Sunday, and it remains applicable to the current structure and narrative on the GA. Before I go further, let's remember that the market may still react to RBA Gov. Lowe's speech a few hours ago, where he talked about, but did not actually say, the the AUD is overvalued (back in 2013, a similar announcement produced a huge bear...
Time for an update on yesterday's post of GA levels. A new, ST level has developed at 1.8062'ish, which makes sense given the top level in the recent range is at 1.8095/1.8105. The bottom level in this range is 1.7995, which has been heavily tested today, but is holding up pretty well given the assault it is under right now. Yesterday I took a buy at 1.8016, and jumped out at 1.8054. As stated yesterday, I will start thinking of a sell campaign if the 1.7995 level is sustainably breached. Lots of probing of 1.7995. All other levels remain in force. My bias remains buy. Nothing on this pair since last night in my time zone (MST).

Lots of fun on the E$ and G$ today. They've been screaming buy since CPI, with the G$ pushing over the level at 1.3930 right now, and the E$ breaking above the level at around 1.1900 and approaching the next level now, too. Good trading everyone.
  • #1,066
  • Mar 10, 2021 1:51pm Mar 10, 2021 1:51pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Time for an update on yesterday's post of GA levels.
Not a pair that I trade, but again same principles, market searching for liquidity, Buyers triggered into postions at UK session 1.8064 to be dumped by a huge waiting sell order, cashing out at the next place where sellers are gathered 1.7990 to close out. Good RR at 1:3
Prior to US session pullback to 1.8052 (significant/ important level) load up more sells.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,067
  • Mar 10, 2021 2:53pm Mar 10, 2021 2:53pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Not a pair that I trade, but again same principles, market searching for liquidity, Buyers triggered into postions at UK session 1.8064 to be dumped by a huge waiting sell order, cashing out at the next place where sellers are gathered 1.7990 to close out. Good RR at 1:3 Prior to US session pullback to 1.8052 (significant/ important level) load up more sells.

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Hey Shabs, so I took the liberty of putting the bolded levels on a chart for clarity. Two questions though,
1. Did down arrow 1 inform the decision to sell at down arrow 3?
2. Also did up arrow 2 create the decision to buy or close sell trade at up arrow 4?

Thanks Mate
Read in between the price!!!
  • #1,068
  • Edited 5:19pm Mar 10, 2021 4:39pm | Edited 5:19pm
Quoting calebfx
{quote} {image} Hey Shabs, so I took the liberty of putting the bolded levels on a chart for clarity. Two questions though, 1. Did down arrow 1 inform the decision to sell at down arrow 3? 2. Also did up arrow 2 create the decision to buy or close sell trade at up arrow 4? Thanks Mate
1. Did down arrow 1 inform the decision to sell at down arrow 3?
No, the high before that, right shoulder of a Head & Shoulders pattern, move away with a large bear candle. Liquidity is here.
Market looks for liquidity first, it helps to entice Bulls for a better short fill.
Arrow 1 is where Buy orders would have been triggered by Arrow 3 Classic Bull Trap.

2. Also did up arrow 2 create the decision to buy or close sell trade at up arrow 4?
Low to the right of Low 2 , Asia open liquidity gap filled. Trapped sellers here,they buy to close and price rises.

Good explanation by RickM here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13441911

Overstayed in this thread, I'm done.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,069
  • Edited 8:42pm Mar 10, 2021 5:42pm | Edited 8:42pm
On Tuesday I asked if anyone is able to make a prediction of Wednesdays market, especially GU where I made a prediction for Tuesday that it's was headed north towards 1.4006. It traded a intraday high at 1.39257 in a bullish market. Read my earlier post for the details.

Given such a Tuesday market most traders naturally guess that Wednesday market will continue to move towards 1.4006 target as previously called. However, the algo already indicated the Wednesday strong intraday top level at 1.3945. The entire day the market traded twice towards this level closing 1.39375. The day high is 1.39380 right at the close giving a high on high gain of only 12.3pips.

In my earlier post I wrote the algo is not about levels which traditional technical analysis interprete the market with support resistance, SD, price action, bla, bla, bla... It's about painting illusion on our chart. Illusion because no TA could have guessed what happened on Wednesday market ahead of time based on traditional TA interpretation of history data. This same thing happened for "go no where" Monday market when I asked a similar question. Check my history post.

Take this understanding one step further. The point is since traditional TA can't tell how the next day will trade, my question is how can traditional TA tell how the market will trade in the next 4 hours, next 1 hour, next 15minutes, next 5minutes? What's the difference?

This is my question for traditional TA, let's hope there's a open, orderly, proper, no holds barred amicable discussion on this specific topic. I believe EVERYONE has this question in mind. But avoid this key question of trading. Why not be brave to discuss this question as a group of experienced traders? The forum will benefit from your views. I hope there's active participation with your contribution. Time to step back from the forum to read below this post. Cheers. BW
Know what you trade
  • #1,070
  • Mar 10, 2021 6:58pm Mar 10, 2021 6:58pm
Quoting BWilliam
I hope there's active participation with your contribution.
Not bloody likely, waste of time, you haven't replied to any of my posts.
You haven't even acknowledged the levels you asked for, on GU for wednesday which proved to be accurate.

You say you want levels then you say you didn't ask for them, make up your mind................

Who is this participation & contribution in aid of exactly ? For you ?

I don't think anyone should waste any more time here.

Carry on Trading and good luck mate with your single algo theory.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,071
  • Mar 10, 2021 7:00pm Mar 10, 2021 7:00pm
All the best BW, and to all who have contributed.

I ain't got more lol.



.
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  • #1,072
  • Edited 7:30pm Mar 10, 2021 7:07pm | Edited 7:30pm
Quoting Shabs19
Not bloody likely, waste of time, you haven't replied to any of my posts. You haven't even acknowledged the levels you asked for, on GU for wednesday which proved to be accurate. You say you want levels then you say you didn't ask for them, make up your mind................ Who is this participation & contribution in aid of exactly ? For you ? I don't think anyone should waste any more time here. Carry on Trading and good luck mate with your single algo theory.
The few things I don't do in my more than 2 decades in trading is to take other traders comments personal. I also adopt an attitude to ask in the face hard questions. I will not make comments about other traders live market call and trades out of respect. That's why I have not responded to your market calls. And I always try keep my comments away from person.

Quoting BWilliam
This forum shall watch this level for the market tomorrow. Make their own conclusions. Thank you Shabs for stepping up to the plate make the algo level call.
My last post is the key question about trading. In my many years in this business I have seen majority of the traders AVOID this most important question. I expect the same to happen here. This is a discussion. And this question is directly related to moodybot's topic of real or algo which brings in the following questions on supply and demand auction economics or illusion, and thereby question the effectiveness of traditional technical analysis. Ofc I am not optimistic that members will discuss this topic directly.

I am certain moodybot purpose for his real or algo thread is more than just his header title.
Know what you trade
  • #1,073
  • Mar 10, 2021 7:07pm Mar 10, 2021 7:07pm
I think people overestimate the usefulness of any one tool and approach. RickM back in post 1050 has it right. If it requires multiples views and ideas of how to see what is going on, then use multiple views.

My research has shown me that no matter what we do, there's always something we're missing. All we can do is shrink the gap of unknown.

And to BWilliam - you never did answer my question about if you trade still?
  • #1,074
  • Mar 10, 2021 7:29pm Mar 10, 2021 7:29pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The few things I don't do in my more than 2 decades in trading is to take other traders comments personal. I also adopt an attitude to ask in the face hard questions. I will not make comments about other traders live market call and trades out of respect. That's why I have not responded to your market calls. And I always try keep my comments away from person. {quote} My last post is the key question about trading. In my many years in this business I have seen majority of the traders AVOID this most important question. I expect the same to...
Hi BWilliams

My short answer is traditional TA can’t predict what will happen next.
However many profitable traders are just using profitability outcomes to trade candle patterns with the aid of smart money management.
They old story of Selling a collapsing bearish market with a stop placed above the last lower high and cross your figures.
It seems to work for many traders, good on them.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,075
  • Mar 10, 2021 7:31pm Mar 10, 2021 7:31pm
Quoting RickM
Hi BWilliams My short answer is traditional TA can’t predict what will happen next. However many profitable traders are just using profitability outcomes to trade candle patterns with the aid of smart money management. They old story of Selling a collapsing bearish market with a stop placed above the last lower high and cross your figures. It seems to work for many traders, good on them.
RickM, thank you for your contribution.

I hope practitioners of traditional TA, that is this entire forum of few hundred thousand members, step forward to post their opinion.
Know what you trade
  • #1,076
  • Mar 10, 2021 7:44pm Mar 10, 2021 7:44pm
Quoting TimeTells
All the best BW, and to all who have contributed. I ain't got more lol. . {image}
Hi TimeTells, thank you for your contribution.
Know what you trade
  • #1,077
  • Mar 10, 2021 7:53pm Mar 10, 2021 7:53pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi TimeTells, thank you for your contribution.
BWilliams

I was reading some of crucialpoint’s thread about trading the forex market and its a pity I couldn’t argue a few things with him.
It’s best I keep my thoughts to myself now and respect his legendary - but if you ever want to lock heads, I think our discussion would get heated.

You know where to find me
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,078
  • Mar 10, 2021 8:03pm Mar 10, 2021 8:03pm
Quoting RickM
BWilliams I was reading some of crucialpoint’s thread about trading the forex market and its a pity I couldn’t argue a few things with him. It’s best I keep my thoughts to myself now and respect his legendary - but if you ever want to lock heads, I think our discussion would get heated. You know where to find me
Thank you RickM, I might pay a visit Christmas time to Z and the rest of the crew. Till then, best wishes and good trading to you and everyone.
Know what you trade
  • #1,079
  • Mar 10, 2021 8:32pm Mar 10, 2021 8:32pm
Quoting BWilliam
On Tuesday I asked if anyone is able to make a prediction of Wednesdays market, especially GU where I made a prediction for Tuesday that it's was headed north towards 1.4006. It traded a intraday high at 1.39257 in a bullish market. Read my earlier post for the details. Given such a Tuesday market most traders naturally guess that Wednesday market will move towards 1.4006 target as previously called. However, the algo already indicated the Wednesday strong intraday top level at 1.3945. The entire day the market traded twice towards this level closing...
First, I gave my GA levels yesterday and updated it today. What I wrote will be the basis of my reply, because my "levels" analysis is exactly how I use and think about TA.

The objective of TA is to identify, via historical data, how the bankers will react to: 1. Changes in market variables and assumptions that are possible in upcoming FA, such as the US CPI announcement this morning, and 2. to "normal" or uneventful days when market variable and assumptions go unchallenged or unchanged by FA. TA, like it or not, is used to predict the behavior of bankers/professional traders to change. TA can't tell you how tomorrow will trade, because the FAs scheduled for tomorrow are unknown right now. However, you do TA because the FA will be know tomorrow, and once it is known, TA will help you respond to the changing behavior of the bankers/professional traders. TA helps you by identifying the possible price level changes that the bankers will target once the FA is made.

In my world, TA helps me predict the next 4H candle and most of all, if I want to trade that candle, especially after the FA. The levels that I am trading, as written up in my previous post, may be hit in the 4H candle immediately after a FA, or may require many 4H candles, but there is a high probability that they will eventually get there. TA is not intended to tell you what is going to happen tomorrow. It helps you prepare for what the bankers will do after tomorrow get here. TA never "works", but it is required if you want your trades to "work".

This algo thing is getting old. You all need a better, updated conspiracy.
  • #1,080
  • Mar 10, 2021 8:37pm Mar 10, 2021 8:37pm
Quoting GEfx
First, I gave my GA levels yesterday and updated it today. What I wrote will be the basis of my reply, because my "levels" analysis is exactly how I use and think about TA. The objective of TA is to identify, via historical data, how the bankers will react to: 1. Changes in market variables and assumptions that are possible in upcoming FA, such as the US CPI announcement this morning, and 2. to "normal" or uneventful days when market variable and assumptions go unchallenged or unchanged by FA. TA, like it or not, is used to predict the behavior...
Thank you for your contribution GEfx.
Know what you trade
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