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Real or Algo

  • #1,021
  • Mar 9, 2021 2:43pm Mar 9, 2021 2:43pm
Quoting Shabs19
Picking the right market to trade is often the toughest proposition, being in the right place at the right time. Going after low hanging fruit as they say. I can only act on what information I have before me, whether it is an illusion or not does not concern me. That is why you need the hours in front of a screen to learn how to trade. I am sure you have done exactly the same. Trade probabilities not prediction, a fools game.
Agree 100% with that bolded statement. The difference between traders is their ability to do this. That's what clocking 10000hours that George wrote is about. This can't be given, the trader has to earn it.
Know what you trade
  • #1,022
  • Mar 9, 2021 3:08pm Mar 9, 2021 3:08pm
BWilliam,

After reading several of your posts on this great thread my thoughts turned back to another trader that use to post on the Factory as your post seemed somewhat like his in that he was sharing, but never shared the whole cake of what he was doing. That trader was Crucial Point who some say was was sharing, but withholding his true way of trading, which he has every right to to & SO DO YOU. I respect that right. I do believe Ole Crucial Point was sharing much more than most traders were able to grasp or understand. I believe you may be doing the same, which again is your right.

Now for the Algo part. Not sure about the Algo, but there are books on the subject so there must be an Algo somewhere behind the scenes.

What is Algo? Again not sure, but I would assume its mathematical & computer driven. The names Jim Harris Simons comes to mind as an American mathematician hedge fund manager. Outstanding track record it is said.

Now as far a Crucial Point goes after reading every thread that I could find that he posted I did find something that has been working for me very well, but as nothing else is in this business it is NEVER 100% in the money. This something requires NO INDICATORS. Clean charts with some lines for reference. I think there was much more shared by Ole Crucial Point, but this one bit of info was all I could find. Like YOU I'M NOT SAYING ANYMORE on that, but what I do & discovered is mathematical. You shared some levels several post back that got my attention as they were near levels I had calculated. I know nothing about Algo, so these are levels I found using my method.

Now for YOU. I like your style. YOUR NOT COCKY or FULL OF YOURSELF, but you are confident in what you have discovered on your own & through the help from your mentors. I hope you stay in touch with those mentors & always appreciate their willingness to share their knowledge. You are perceived to be full of yourself as Crucial Point was because you just wouldn't let the GENIE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE BOTTLE.

I would like to learn more about Algo & how it works, but not sure it would be be worth my time & effort. I know the markets are mathematical is nature. Learn the math & you'll know the projected moves.

I hope you continue to post & share, but would not blame you if you did the Crucial Point thing & went silent & traded your way to more $.

Best of trades to you my friend.

" It Is Better To Light A Candle Than To Cuss The Darkness"
_____________________________________________________________________
  • #1,023
  • Mar 9, 2021 3:16pm Mar 9, 2021 3:16pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Ok, I've been told to go easy. I honestly love all this algo talk ....whether the thread reaches a conclusion or not Kind regards Dm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6WgdPCaRgs
Keep posting but no music vids thanks, timetells operates on a great music thread.
Cheers.
  • #1,024
  • Mar 9, 2021 3:18pm Mar 9, 2021 3:18pm
Quoting acetrader
BWilliam, After reading several of your posts on this great thread my thoughts turned back to another trader that use to post on the Factory as your post seemed somewhat like his in that he was sharing, but never shared the whole cake of what he was doing. That trader was Crucial Point who some say was was sharing, but withholding his true way of trading, which he has every right to to & SO DO YOU. I respect that right. I do believe Ole Crucial Point was sharing much more than most traders were able to grasp or understand. I believe you may be doing...
Hi acetrader, this means that there are a few of us on FF who know how to calculate the math. Tbh I feel that I have spent a lot of time on both threads for the last 2 months. If there's nothing more I plan to leave the forum. And yes I am always indebted to my mentors.
Know what you trade
  • #1,025
  • Mar 9, 2021 3:28pm Mar 9, 2021 3:28pm
Hahaaa, now why did I assume, that when I woke up this morning, that this to and fro might still be going on.

I wish I could ‘predict’ the markets with such accuracy. (ONLY joking, ffs)

I sense we may never all agree.

Or even agree, to disagree.


Folks, we may even be all on the SAME page (but merely explaining it from OUR own perspective)

Reminds me a little of the brain-tease "Do we all see the same colour in the same way (colour),
or just agree that the colour we 'each' see,
is CALLED by THAT colours name.


edit: I will need to speed read now to catch up on the banter
  • #1,026
  • Mar 9, 2021 3:46pm Mar 9, 2021 3:46pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi acetrader, this means that there are a few of us on FF who know how to calculate the math. Tbh I feel that I have spent a lot of time on both threads for the last 2 months. If there's nothing more I plan to leave the forum. And yes I am always indebted to my mentors.
Hi BWilliam, I agree there are a few. Charge on my friend. Best wishes in the times ahead.
  • #1,027
  • Mar 9, 2021 3:59pm Mar 9, 2021 3:59pm
Quoting moodybot
Real or Algo, supply and demand, support and resistance or even Cot report. How did price stop a pip or two away from the target with the real gotcha hiding underneath...would price revisit the () support? Ancient Alien theorists say yes. {image}

Hi Moodybot,

Cheers Andy and thx for opening up this very interesting thread.


I was very interested, as you would understand, at the start especially your 2nd post

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post12888724

followed by, (your follow up), post #7

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post12889009

And let’s not call them predictions, more like EXPECTATIONS



The premise we all began with was …

Is the market Real or Algo driven?


And imo some excellent viewpoints (opinions) have been put across, and as well as supporting either side of the real/algo question,
the how the market CAN be traded regardless of your view on the R / A discussion (ie our personal day to day trading).


Maths, Volumes, TA, PA, Fibs, Targets, Fundamentals (and more) have ALL shown, and has now proven (well, to me that is), my VERY ‘CONTENTIOUS’ observation that

EVERYTHING! can work to secure TP in Forex,

IF we trade with a consistent LOGICAL and methodical approach.


When we are able “explain to ourselves” (with REAL thoughts & considerations) that OUR personal reasoning provides us consistent results, (due to the repetitive nature of the markets), then we have made the progress required for us to trade profitably.


The, “what” that causes this repetition, algo or real, is up to the individual trader.


In my humble opinion at this point then,
IF we are not trading to TP, consistently,
then the issue is NOT with the markets,
and not whether we use maths, volumes, fibs, targets etc
or if it in fact it is an algo or real supply/demand auction market
(seems like an algo to me lol)

The issue is, with us, the Trader.

Trade well, trade SAFE.
  • #1,028
  • Mar 9, 2021 4:14pm Mar 9, 2021 4:14pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Moodybot, Cheers Andy and thx for opening up this very interesting thread. I was very interested, as you would understand, at the start especially your 2nd post https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post12888724 followed by, (your follow up), post #7 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post12889009 And let’s not call them predictions, more like EXPECTATIONS The premise we all began with was … Is the market Real or Algo driven? And imo some excellent viewpoints (opinions) have been put across,...
Thanks for the post Pete.
Very few threads have had the same quality of input as this one. I know it’s contentious, Real or Algo, but whatever the view there have been some terrific posts and points of view.
In the Uk when an MP is about to crap on another, they usually start the sentence with ‘My right honourable friend’... just thinking ‘My learned trader’ might work here before giving both barrels..
Perhaps both you and BW could use that and let’s see where it takes us...
  • #1,029
  • Mar 9, 2021 5:16pm Mar 9, 2021 5:16pm
Cheers, Andy, you are on point as usual.


And I CAN DEFINATELY see where there would be a hugely useful function of maths in Forex to determine an algo level (and also what that function might have).

And maths would be a hugely useful function as well in perhaps determining outer boundaries of the "said" algo (similar to, but far more precise than, a Bollinger Band for example).


I still hope our learned maths traders (and there will be a few of them here on FF for sure) could see or acknowledge

that other non-maths traders (like TA, Volume, PA, fundamental & Target traders etc) could also,

through their own particular studies & challenges, arrive at their own solutions to the FX puzzle.


NOT so much to a greater or lesser degree of TP than the purely maths traders
(as some non-maths traders will only take scraps, with others taking scraps maybe will do that up to 100 times per night)

(The TP acknowledgement is not required, because that would more closely relate to the when & how a trader enters and exits their trade, apart from their methodology.)

Interesting thread for sure.
  • #1,030
  • Mar 9, 2021 5:42pm Mar 9, 2021 5:42pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi GEfx, just pick one pair that you're confident with how you think it will trade tomorrow market. Just one. Write whatever you wish in that post. Something like what Shabs has done in his post above. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13444472
Hi BWilliam,
Sorry, I had to run a few errands and had a dentist appointment this afternoon. I'll stick with the GA, but if you require a different pair, just let me know. This is from my chart work from this past Sunday, and it remains applicable to the current structure and narrative on the GA. Before I go further, let's remember that the market may still react to RBA Gov. Lowe's speech a few hours ago, where he talked about, but did not actually say, the the AUD is overvalued (back in 2013, a similar announcement produced a huge bear market for the AUD, so my ears perk up when I hear him hinting around at an overvalued AUD).

Here is my analysis from Sunday on the GA: My bias is to buy the pair, but given the nature of the GA, if a sell opportunity presents itself (as it has this week), selling opportunities are tradable. As to the buy bias, I am buying on a bounce of 1.7995 area, and every subsequent trade above that level, and taking profits at 1.8095/1.8105, or, if there is a break above that level, target 1.8112 (too close to trade, but watch it), 1.8148, and 1.8205. Above there, target 1.8293, and 1.8468. In the event 1.7995 is breached, after confirmation of a change in bias to aggressive sell, I am targeting 1.7050/56 (this may get hit right away, so watch the PA around this level), 1.7840, and 1.7795.

My trading approach is to stay focused on hitting targets. Move stops along the way to protect profits, but stay in the trade, add to it as appropriate, and have the testicular veracity to hold the positions to targets. It can take more than a day to get there, but hold on (how long can you hold onto a profitable series of trades?).

Finally, the market is waiting for the CPI figures out of the US tomorrow. And some indication about SLR is needed soon, which can make or ruin your day. Keep your heads in the market if you're trading it.
  • #1,031
  • Mar 9, 2021 6:56pm Mar 9, 2021 6:56pm
From what I have seen, read and researched myself, no one here really honestly can say for sure if there is a algo moving these markets. For BWilliam, all I want to ask is - Did you trade what happened to make a cool tidy profit from what you have worked out? This to me is the best question to answer. Unless we all do a full audit of your findings, there will always be skeptics and unbelievers. This is the problem with picking sides here.

I'm just here to figure some stuff out for myself. I'm sure you're doing the same. If you have worked the maths out then great for you. I just hope the algo doesn't get amended or altered significantly or else your maths will be off.

My ideas are based on the chart and its action of similarity. I am just trying to keep it simple.
  • #1,032
  • Edited 8:47pm Mar 9, 2021 8:33pm | Edited 8:47pm
This is the reason why I think technical analysis don't work.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...74#post3579174

I learnt to code, interprete and understand the math then spent majority of the research time to find out not about what work. Nope. To find out why traditional technical analysis don't work. The explanation is found in that post. It looks simple but I had to spend 10000hours to learn this simple thing. It took 10000hours because I kept fighting, testing every permutation, every possibility I can think of. .

I am left with nothing. Dead end road. Wasted my life. No way to win. This was my feeling at the end of 10000hours of research. Despair. Darkest moment. I have to call it quits. I can't continue to fool myself. No kidding. No dramatising. This is the hard truth that happened to me. That's why I take the trouble to post so much here.

You can check it out yourself. If you do a proper, complete, and honest research you come to this same conclusion. CP's research come to this same conclusion. If you're a genius it takes you a much shorter time. If you're not bright like me it takes 10000 hours. If you did not do the required work your opinion you post on forum is just opinion. I'm not here to argue, do the work find out yourself.
Know what you trade
  • #1,033
  • Mar 9, 2021 8:55pm Mar 9, 2021 8:55pm
Quoting BWilliam
This is the reason why I think technical analysis don't work. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...74#post3579174 I learnt to code, interprete and understand the math then spent majority of the research time to find out not about what work. Nope. To find out why traditional technical analysis don't work. The explanation is found in that post. It looks simple but I had to spend 10000hours to learn this simple thing. It took 10000hours because I kept fighting, testing every permutation, every possibility I can think of. . I am...
Does this mean you don't trade anymore? It would be a real shame if you put in that work and time for nothing.
  • #1,034
  • Edited 9:34pm Mar 9, 2021 9:01pm | Edited 9:34pm
I finally found the answer here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...29#post3713829


His words ring true. I stupidly kept on digging with nothing left mentally, physically, spiritually. Digging like a zombie.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...68#post3821468

CP is a kind man. He wrote that 11years ago. Yet members here don't make use of what he wrote. Even when the truth is written published on forum for free the work of his research goes to waste like rubbish, thread disposed in the recycle bin. By the traders who are seeking the answer. Its a strange world. The members today is the same like them 11 years ago. Like the forex market this never change. The only change is the name. Just read this thread to know that. I am wasting my time here.

I would have written almost the same.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...29#post3827929

"What I discovered is the unification and the perfect relationship of the different mathematics." unquote CP 25 Jun 2010

I think the reason this thing happen is because we only trust one person, ourself. I don't blame you.
Know what you trade
  • #1,035
  • Mar 9, 2021 9:12pm Mar 9, 2021 9:12pm
Quoting BWilliam
This is the reason why I think technical analysis don't work.
I learnt to code, interprete and understand the math then spent majority of the research time to find out not about what work.
Nope. To find out why traditional technical analysis don't work. The explanation is found in that post.

You make an interesting point BW (and so does CP).

These are your thoughts which should be respected. We are in discussions.


But first we might clarify TA, so that we are all talking about the same thing.

else
Quoting TimeTells
Reminds me a little of the brain-tease
"Do we all see the same colour in the same way (colour), or just agree that the colour we 'each' see, is CALLED by THAT colours name.

So do we all understand the Forex phrase Technical Analysis in the same way.


What is Technical Analysis?
There might lie the issue imo.
The definition.


Imo, patterns (not TA) turn up day after day in my view. NOT hard-coded patterns like candlestick stuff.

Just patterns of how the markets play out.

In fact, if they didn't play out the same, I'd looking for a new interest (maybe back to the horses) or changing my methods.

Markets seem to though, repeat in a repetitive way.


Again (sorry folks with the chart, but it is what I see). Targets. Any timeframe (they are fractal).

A better entry for me this morning (as against yesterdays ugly efforts)

as NO new Lower Lo (LL) was made before I entered the trade, which I closed at the next linear Target.

Is this TA?
I don;t call it TA, I just call it the market mechanics (or something, I don't define it)
(ie it's what the market always does, just the same as when you roll a car downhill, with the engine off - it will ALWAYS roll down)

So we best define TA first, and hopefully agree on our defintions.



.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM1 better entry.png Size: 26 KB
  • #1,036
  • Mar 9, 2021 9:43pm Mar 9, 2021 9:43pm
Quoting BWilliam
I finally found the answer here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...29#post3713829 His words ring true. I stupidly kept on digging with nothing left mentally, physically, spiritually. Digging like a zombie. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...68#post3821468 CP is a kind man. He wrote that 11years ago. Yet members here don't make use of what he wrote. Even when the truth is written published on forum for free the work of his research goes to waste like rubbish, thread disposed in the recycle bin. By the...
I am sorry, what I was asking is - After all you've been through, do you trade anymore? Did you learn what you needed to so you could trade in a consistently profitable way?
  • #1,037
  • Mar 9, 2021 10:24pm Mar 9, 2021 10:24pm
Quoting TimeTells
You make an interesting point BW (and so does CP). These are your thoughts which should be respected. We are in discussions. But first we might clarify TA, so that we are all talking about the same thing. else {quote} So do we all understand the Forex phrase Technical Analysis in the same way. What is Technical Analysis? There might lie the issue imo. The definition. Imo, patterns (not TA) turn up day after day in my view. NOT hard-coded patterns like candlestick stuff. Just patterns of how the markets play out. In fact, if they didn't play...
This is my humble view of your UCAD trade. You took the trade a few minutes after Tokyo open. Ask RickM post what he see on his volume data. You find the answer there.
Know what you trade
  • #1,038
  • Mar 9, 2021 10:35pm Mar 9, 2021 10:35pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
This is my humble view of your UCAD trade. You took the trade a few minutes after Tokyo open. Ask RickM post what he see on his volume data. You find the answer there.

Cheers BW,

My question, if I may, is whether you regard what I do as operating - under Technical Analysis.

That would allow me to consider your post better when you said, you think Technical Analysis doesn't work.

As I do not consider what I do as Technical analysis. But you may.

That is the only point I make here I guess, in putting up the last of my charts.
  • #1,039
  • Edited 11:22pm Mar 9, 2021 10:50pm | Edited 11:22pm
Quoting TimeTells
Cheers BW, My question, if I may, is whether you regard what I do as operating - under Technical Analysis. That would allow me to consider your post better when you said, you think Technical Analysis doesn't work. As I do not consider what I do as Technical analysis. But you may. That is the only point I make here I guess, in putting up the last of my charts.
The name traders label their trading is not the matter. It's the manner they go about making trading decisions.

Again, I'm not here to argue. If it works for the trader, he feels satisfied with his way then that's all that matter.
It's our own individual expectation about trading that differ.

CP wrote it here 11 years ago. Watch the video.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...59#post3703159
Know what you trade
  • #1,040
  • Mar 9, 2021 10:51pm Mar 9, 2021 10:51pm
Quoting Kevbram
{quote} I am sorry, what I was asking is - After all you've been through, do you trade anymore? Did you learn what you needed to so you could trade in a consistently profitable way?
I think you do. You really know your stuff. You've got lots of great info and knowledge and you seem to know your way round a chart.
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