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Real or Algo

  • #961
  • Edited 6:33am Mar 8, 2021 6:10am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting Merka
{quote}
Did not get properly your confirmation?
You said directional momentum change.
Do you mean high removed?


Hi Merka,

Because I do not use any maths to work out the markets, I took to George's Targets like a duck to water.

I then found that instead of doing only reversal trades, that I also could trade "with" the market momentum.

BUT, when to jump in was always the puzzle.


I had to think hard about all this stuff for ages really, looking at charts, running trade simulators to see if i could pick trades 'on the fly' etc
(its always easy, once the chart has been painted lol, to see it, but not so on the fly)

A lot of it is traditional TA as it turns out, I did not know this. As I did not go down that TA path when commencing in forex about 4 years ago.
(well just a bunch of indis that I kept swapping out when something didn't work with them)


TA has been around for yonks. It doesn;t work all the time.

Same as Targets, as one target is BOTH above and below price at any one time.

So simple TA like higher highs and higher lows has me interested in the 'painted' market as I can easily see it rising (among the pullbacks and fakes).


If there is sudden or shock move away from a direction (ie pullbacks, whipsaw, and what I call Fake 'n Flips, market tricks if you like).

But they are NOT always a trick.

So I must WAIT for the confirmation of direction to return.


It's not a science. Or a maths based assessment. To me. The market is always in 'some' motion and I try and 'surf' with it when it's directional.

(You could check out Jupiters Journal thread Bucking Bronco to see real surfing at work on the DE30.)

I, sir, am a novice believe me.

But I won't let naysayers put me off something that works for me.



So your question. It is not a high removed, more like a return to direction from a higher low that did not collapse back to the previous hard Target.

Practice is all I did, I left the calculator on the desk and used my eyes and my mind.

And I can't stop myself now from seeing "all" the Targets. Once you see them you will never NOT see them again.

Good fortunes Merka



.
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  • #962
  • Mar 8, 2021 6:24am Mar 8, 2021 6:24am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}

Nice one TT Yup

Thank you Danger-Mouse,


I am not a professional trader though. And there are some great ones on here.

But I do trade every day.

It was a tough road, and not over yet.


I have combined a few gems of info from people that have helped me out along the way.

Then I just sat down and thought about it (Trading). Sounds crazy but the thinking was the interesting part.

But how do you do 'thinking' lol.

Well if I have a concept that I think is correct, or works.

I will then play the 'devils advocate' back on myself, on my own thoughts, and try to pick holes in them if you know what I mean.

Then I can discard what I thought was okay, but had a weakness in it. I tossed quite a few of them out alright lol.


What I see on YOUR chart is what I would love to aspire to, and any trader would.

You took a trade. To a target. Then reversed your direction and took profit on the way down.

That was excellent two-way trading in my eyes, well done.


I have also found it best in life and especially here in Forex, for myself only that is, to never denigrate any methodologies of others as there is ALWAYS something we can learn from each other.

It's a small revolving world lol.

When I was in horse-racing there were some real hard-heads believe me, but in Forex, wow, the knives can be out a lot of the time. And I always wonder for what purpose .


So keep up the great work D-M, and thank you again
  • #963
  • Mar 8, 2021 6:44am Mar 8, 2021 6:44am
[quote=Danger-Mouse;13442127]{quote} Nice one TT Yup, even scalping SPX in the deadzone can be profitable...no big PHD math...no secret volume indicators. Mind-numbingly boring, but hey ho...maybe that's what the years do to you in trading. Would be nice to know more about why things happen but if it's not to be it's not to be. Price creates areas of interest then breaks them. Is it a breakout? Is it just a stoprun? Who knows. I make my money off stopruns...sure, if it breaks out and runs i get the odd stopout (but very often there's a retest right after breakout anyway..HINT HINT HINT I'm sure u and Rick are accomplished profitable traders in your own right and I respect that. For anyone reading this that may be newer to trading....all the talk of years and years of study and complex maths etc etc.

From the chart you posted, I do not see any stop hunt trades or am I mistaken? I see range trading, the sell trade actually looks quite risky, except that is the stop hunt trade after a breakout of the previous high.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #964
  • Mar 8, 2021 6:59am Mar 8, 2021 6:59am
Quoting calebfx
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Nice one TT Yup, even scalping SPX in the deadzone can be profitable...no big PHD math...no secret volume indicators. Mind-numbingly boring, but hey ho...maybe that's what the years do to you in trading. Would be nice to know more about why things happen but if it's not to be it's not to be. Price creates areas of interest then breaks them. Is it a breakout? Is it just a stoprun? Who knows. I make my money off stopruns...sure, if it breaks out and runs i get the odd stopout (but very often there's a retest right
...
I think have another look at it. He entered after the price has taken out Highs and Lows (Buy and Sell Stops) including the Clean Lows (Herd Mentality Validation or Support). His exit is after the price has taken out the recent/old High/Low.
  • #965
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:16am Mar 8, 2021 7:16am
Quoting Pumi
{quote}{quote} I think have another look at it. He entered after the price has taken out Highs and Lows (Buy and Sell Stops) including the Clean Lows (Herd Mentality Validation or Support). His exit is after the price has taken out the recent/old High/Low.
What low was taken out before his buy entry? Lol Mate he entered on what some would call a support level or zone, his buy trade could easily be the beginning of a bull stop hunt. Perhaps we wait for the OP to explain. Chart here again for clarity.

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Read in between the price!!!
  • #966
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:20am Mar 8, 2021 7:20am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Thank you Danger-Mouse, I am not a professional trader though. And there are some great ones on here. But I do trade every day. It was a tough road, and not over yet. I have combined a few gems of info from people that have helped me out along the way. Then I just sat down and thought about it (Trading). Sounds crazy but the thinking was the interesting part. But how do you do 'thinking' lol. Well if I have a concept that I think is correct, or works. I will then play the 'devils advocate' back on myself, on my own thoughts, and try to pick...
I still do daft stuff..can't help myself. Impulsive finger. But as long as a plan for losses is in place everything's fine. I'm terrible at holding trades to proper targets (whatever they may be) ..but if" someone" leaves a line of highs and lows on a chart it ain't random...it's there for a purpose.

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There u go..SPX now up another 10 from this chart already ...coulda been a week's wages if I'd held on . But I just can't do these bigger moves. Anyway..30 odd pips pre-market on the SPX is fine for me...each to their own
  • #967
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:23am Mar 8, 2021 7:23am
Quoting moodybot
BW.... the floor is yours!
Hi Andy, thank you for allowing me to post on your thread. Your topic is my interest. I have covered as much as possible and stated my pov clearly. No offence intended to anyone. Time to step back.

Cheers
BW
Know what you trade
  • #968
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:25am Mar 8, 2021 7:25am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Merka, Because I do not use any maths to work out the markets, I took to George's Targets like a duck to water. I then found that instead of doing only reversal trades, that I also could trade "with" the market momentum. BUT, when to jump in was always the puzzle. I had to think hard about all this stuff for ages really, looking at charts, running trade simulators to see if i could pick trades 'on the fly' etc (its always easy, once the chart has been painted lol, to see it, but not so on the fly) A lot of it is traditional TA as it turns...
Thanks
Why you didn't considered this target I marked for TP and you went for the upper target?
Price at that line could have easily reversed to you entry taking you out at BE or SL.
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  • #969
  • Edited 7:56am Mar 8, 2021 7:28am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting calebfx
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Nice one TT Yup, even scalping SPX in the deadzone can be profitable...no big PHD math...no secret volume indicators. Mind-numbingly boring, but hey ho...maybe that's what the years do to you in trading. Would be nice to know more about why things happen but if it's not to be it's not to be. Price creates areas of interest then breaks them. Is it a breakout? Is it just a stoprun? Who knows. I make my money off stopruns...sure, if it breaks out and runs i get the odd stopout (but very often there's a retest right
...
I'm not trading off a daily, H4, or even an hourly chart..I don't care about levels that far out. Yes, that's probably why I missed that 10 point ramp in SPX... but it's not important for my SCALE of trading. What kind of stoprun do u think it will take to knock out H4 and daily players? It's probably going to need to be fairly large. These trades I posted have NO reference to anything outside of the price action on today's charts. Know your timeframe..know your enemy (or maybe it's friend )

EDIT..the first long, yes, it could easily have gone lower and i was hoping it did for an add on but never got it sadly
  • #970
  • Mar 8, 2021 9:02am Mar 8, 2021 9:02am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}{quote} I'm not trading off a daily, H4, or even an hourly chart..I don't care about levels that far out. Yes, that's probably why I missed that 10 point ramp in SPX... but it's not important for my SCALE of trading. What kind of stoprun do u think it will take to knock out H4 and daily players? It's probably going to need to be fairly large. These trades I posted have NO reference to anything outside of the price action on today's charts. Know your timeframe..know your enemy (or maybe it's friend ) EDIT..the first long, yes,...
As long as you know what you're doing Mate. Might leave this thread now though. Seems we'll never learn to spot the Algo footprints well except what most of us already know about market structure. Was hoping for new information.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #971
  • Mar 8, 2021 11:13am Mar 8, 2021 11:13am
Today, we traded a nearly perfect banker's pattern on the E$, and are still in this trade with a close stop. Got an alert to this late last night and started selling, like the bankers, at 1.1907, then 1.1887, then 1.1875, and finally at 1.1874 on the reload. All our trades have now run to 1 1850, where all but the last trade have been closed for the day. Last trade's target is 1.1840. The first three waves we traded each had retracements to the leg's .50 mark, with the reload retracement also at a deeper retrace but still at a .50 mark. This is exactly the thing you'd expect to see if bankers were working their trading processes as they cut euro holdings. My stop is at 1.1864.
  • #972
  • Edited 2:55pm Mar 8, 2021 2:44pm | Edited 2:55pm
Quoting Merka
{quote}
Thanks
Why you didn't considered this target I marked for TP and you went for the upper target?
Price at that line could have easily reversed to you entry taking you out at BE or SL. {image}

Hi Merka, great observation and a very legitimate question.

The 'classic" first target that you draw was a logical target yes.

(I call it the "back to where it all began" Target MOVE named after the Dicky Betts Allman Bros song . It is usually imbedded inside a Fake N Flip move - my fave pattern - with price coming straight back to the beginning of the FNF reversal)

And it was around 6 pips which was also acceptable to me,
but I honestly cannot remember my real reasoning for that at the time
- so I won't try and "justify" it now, to 'seem' wise, I am merely a tryer here lol

But that further 'next' Target was the actual Prime Target that I was always focusing on when the trade initially setup
(and that was the 5m swing candle printing at 15:35 chart time on 2021.03.05)

(I also may well have been regetting NOT taking the first target TP at the time, but BE +1 was the next option, and then gulp -10 to -14 DD).

I hit the sack pretty soon after.

This is not science for me, and I always have a Target in mind at trade start and trade end
(and I will also miss some of the bigger moves that eventuate - though I don't have so many concerns about that now as I do "believe" there will, hopefully, be another trade setup the next day.

Thank you, and good fortunes M
  • #973
  • Mar 8, 2021 4:32pm Mar 8, 2021 4:32pm
Some forex breakfast meusli for contemplation, (not constipation lol)


(and NOT for trading, just 'thinking' )



.
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  • #974
  • Mar 8, 2021 4:39pm Mar 8, 2021 4:39pm
I might as well put up the other pattern.

I don;t trade this stuff at all.

I just find it interesting

(and the Delta book I couldn't make head nor tail of - but i read it 4 yrs ago at the beginning of my forex journey - and I wont go back again as I look at the screens in my own way now)

real or algo ?


.
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  • #975
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:01pm Mar 8, 2021 7:01pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I apologise.
And I do appreciate you post your market analysis in real time market.

Cheers BW, I do appreciate you saying that, thank you.



Quoting BWilliam
{quote}

Hi TimeTells, just want to clarify do you still standby what you wrote earlier ? {quote} {quote}


I see your questions.

My statements, I think, might make those questions redundant. Let’s see.


They seem genuine questions to me, cheers.


As I am not younger (and can never be) I cannot say exactly what I would have done if younger now and trading in forex.

When I was younger I was involved in horseracing speculation. And I did use maths in that.
(later, maths with a combination of visuals - I think we discussed this).


But for new traders? Yes. I think everyone should have a maths background if trading, if only to manage their risk vs reward with a complete understanding.

While in relation to using maths to determine boundaries or levels of an algo price movement, per day or week (like a Bollinger band), I say why not.


Of course, there are many ways to trade forex successfully other than just using maths alone, and traders have shown it here daily.


BW, you have never really discussed which discipline of maths you use that I can find.

But NOT to disclose any formulas.

I would never ask or expect anyone to disclose those, I understand that fully.

I mean what type of maths would you recommend traders use- obviously some combination of - addition/subtraction, multiplication/division, algebra, trigonometry, physics etc (Gann even used Astrology to compliment his maths in trading I read, but I only add that for fun, I do not think that is what you would use)

http://www.astrologyforganntraders.com.au/


If you might discuss the type of maths you use maybe, then others would get a better idea, I believe, of what you mean when you say maths is the way to understand the algo.
  • #976
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:05pm Mar 8, 2021 7:05pm
AND.

BW

It would help me today lol.

As my post on GBPUSD yesterday never saw price exit out of the Asia box all through NY right up to now lol.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13441771

Quoting TimeTells
GBPUSD
The key early points for me are the Asia box breaks and if they fake n flip back inside the Asia box.
(my Asia box runs from 2:45 to 8:45 chart time)

Did you have any algo levels you are able to share on GBPUSD for today.

Because something is brewing with that pair, you and I both know that.
  • #977
  • Mar 8, 2021 8:12pm Mar 8, 2021 8:12pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers BW, I do appreciate you saying that, thank you. {quote} I see your questions. My statements, I think, might make those questions redundant. Let’s see. They seem genuine questions to me, cheers. As I am not younger (and can never be) I cannot say exactly what I would have done if younger now and trading in forex. When I was younger I was involved in horseracing speculation. And I did use maths in that. (later, maths with a combination of visuals - I think we discussed this). But for new traders? Yes. I think everyone should have a...
Hi TimeTells, believe me one thing I meant no malice to offend anyone with my posts. I was merely sharing my point of view which is ofc math based.

My journey into math started when I learnt to write mt4 codes. I'm not an expert just learnt from a real expert many years back on another forum who is my mentor(I call him uncle) who passed last year.
https://www.forexfactory.com/nih98

There's another guy from Canada who I consider a person with genius brain. He's the most creative trader I have ever met, the very best. Without him this is not possible. He was active on FF a few years back. For few years the 3 of us explored the math of indicators beyond what's ever seen in books, YouTube or forum. It took 3 brains combined to set the base work. I got my breakthrough in my own research from this base few years later.

The end product is simple, very simple, stupidly simple. I wrote here earlier, there's no need for special magic proprietary indicators. No need. I use ZERO proprietary indicators. The key lies in your UNDERSTANDING. That's all everyone lack. That's the secret sauce. I truly mean what I say.

If you ask me what's the way to learn this math. I have been posed this question on pm a lot of times. This is my honest answer to ALL who ask this question. I know you won't like my answer but this is the truth from me.

There are 3 huge stumbling blocks that prevent you from learning something this simple.

1. Your EGO. If you read the posts on this thread and every other thread the EGO is always there. People don't realise they have big huge EGO. You ask how 8s EGO related to learning the math. The answer is simple and logical.

If you adopt an egoistic mindset that you already know and full of knowledge how is it possible to learn new things? If your EGO tells you you are correct then the new can't be right. You will NEVER be open to the possibility that you may not be correct. Or perhaps only partially correct. What's worse is this new idea of algo math has no standard curriculum. So DM ask for proof, no proof he goes mocking. That's normal reaction from the EGO.

TimeTells, I believe you understand what I wrote. The only person hurt by this EGO is ourself. No one else.

2. Your FEAR. Many people don't realise FEAR control us much more than we realise. FEAR control ALL traders. All. 100% with no exception. The impact of fear is so great that its always with us whenever we open up our computers to look at the charts. Even on WEEKENDS.

TimeTells, you ask how is FEAR related to learning the math? When FEAR dominate the trader he lost his ability to think, no more logical or sensible. I know you don't believe FEAR dominate you. But the truth is yes it does in a big huge way much more than you realise. There's no escape from FEAR until you recognise you are controlled by FEAR. The person who says he is above FEAR is the person who is dominated by FEAR. The person who admit and acknowledge FEAR dominate him is the person who will seek real solution to the problem. Can you see the problem of FEAR now, TimeTells?

3. Your GREED. Everyone who come to forex trading is attracted to it because of the money $$$$. EVERYONE. Some people say I trade forex to earn a living, not become a millionaire. That's bullshite talk in denial. Earn a living is still money. Pay your bills is still money. Side income is still money. Trading equals money, yet we read so much get rich quick, instant millionaire criticisms. Scammer or charlatan, marketer.... And so on.

TimeTells, trading forex is money whether for coins or millions. GREED is always there where there's money. And GREED distort the logical and sensible mind. How is it possible to adopt a back to school learning mindset when GREED tells you that you have to earn a living, pay your bills? The argument is that's real needs. Simple answer, get a job.

TimeTells, I don't mean to be rude, no offence intended. No intention to lecture. It's each individuals life that's involved here, different circumstances. No matter, I outline this 3 huge stumbling blocks that affect EVERYONE. No exception.

TimeTells, to understand the math the trader has to overcome ALL 3 stumbling blocks. The trader has to first address the source problem. No offence intended. IMHO.
Know what you trade
  • #978
  • Mar 8, 2021 8:42pm Mar 8, 2021 8:42pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi TimeTells, believe me one thing I meant no malice to offend anyone with my posts.

Cheers BW, yes I do believe you, thank you.


Yours is a large post to digest, and I always take my 'thinking' seriously. So I will need a day or two to get my head around what you are meaning here.
(as a beginning to any process).


It takes me time as when I 'think' on things I initially think on what I assume i have read.

And then I have to turn my thought upside down (on myself) to look it at from another perspective.


I am not quite absolutely sure what you are meaning, I should say that.

But I take it on board that you would NOT have written such a lengthy piece if it wasn't from sincerity.

---

May I take one thing away, today, while I ponder on your post, and understand that you have written code in mt4 to address the algo behaviour.

If so, that could help me, as there are "data windows" in mt4 where I can look at the values of my standard indis.

Should I assume that is the data you are working on. Which is then put into a function formula within an mql4 file.

If so, that is all I would need from my question thank you (I never wanted WHAT the data was you are using, or from what indi)

If I have the wrong idea here, which you might be able to just say "Y / N".

Then I will read your post again outside of trading times to find what I think, that you think lol, I might be missing or not 'seeing' what you see.

All the best regardless.

I enjoy the "amicable" chats for sure.


(PS your 'uncle' was a terrific man that I remember held very high values in himself and life, I did not know him personally, but he & I did exchange posts and home page shouts )
  • #979
  • Edited 10:11pm Mar 8, 2021 8:49pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting TimeTells
AND. BW It would help me today lol. As my post on GBPUSD yesterday never saw price exit out of the Asia box all through NY right up to now lol. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13441771 {quote} Did you have any algo levels you are able to share on GBPUSD for today. Because something is brewing with that pair, you and I both know that.
I answer your GU question in a broader context.

Dollar strengthened against all majors on Monday. The better performing is EU and UCHF. That's why GEfx short trades into a falling market were easy winners. The best performing is UJ, the algo target is way above what you indicated. Like Oil on Friday, it was a "press the buy button anytime you wish".

Why then GU went nowhere? That's why I asked in my earlier post where is GU heading? Answer, nowhere. When I ask the question I expect any attempt to answer is wrong. This is my acid test. If you get it correct then you understand the algo math.

You ask about GU TODAY. Today is difficult decision day for GU whether to continue south trend or not. The answer is 75% probability it end up going north 1.4006. Or it might be a pullback then continue South, that's the overhanging threat for todays market. It has a huge algo level to break to 1.3640. Watch live market.

If anyone is trading intraday swings or scalp, be extra careful today.
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Know what you trade
  • #980
  • Mar 8, 2021 9:16pm Mar 8, 2021 9:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I answer your GU question in a broader context.
1.4006.
1.3640.
Watch live market. If anyone is trading intraday swings or scalp, be extra careful today.

Good advice to be careful, something is brewing yes.

When something brews I always think fake n flip ahead (whipsaws etc), so if price would be to go up, I would see they might shoot low first.
And the opposite if they shoot low.

You must know (lol) that the very first thing I do when I see any price listed (like 1.4006 and 1.3640) is that I immediately start to look for a MY Target in that vicinity.

And I have done that. Lol.

But I will let yourself or any others investigate by themselves if they so desire, to see what I see.
(which is pretty close on both and that is all I will say - while I do have interim targets lined up also all along the way to the top as sometimes the Big target gets taken out in NY while I sleep, so maybe there could be 10 pips floating in the breeze before that which has my name written on it ).

I also may NOT trade GU again today depending on its performance around the Asia box and any attempted breakouts (as price is still inside Yesterday box).
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