Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2845 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #56,881
  • Mar 5, 2021 12:40pm Mar 5, 2021 12:40pm
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Thank you. I'm assuming you are referring you are referring to the color of cloud being red/green, not wether the trade is in the plus or minus? Yes, I have been looking at your charts, I like the simplicity and consistency of them edit: mixed up clouds and trades lol
Actually no. I will look to stay in a trade once it has gone into green (positive) territory and bag whatever it gives me, closing with at least +1 if it turns.

I do not let my trades turn negative at all if they have been positive.

Of course, in real life, there will be times where I am too slow on the trigger and I will have a trade go red on me. This then becomes up to my experience as to how I interpret what price is showing me. I can usually tell when I will be able to ride something out (usually fading into it as well) and whether it has genuinely turned against me.

If in doubt at all, I will close it out for a small loss and wait for the next go-around. I will also equally happily re-enter if it comes back in my original direction.

Momo is my friend!
  • #56,882
  • Mar 5, 2021 1:13pm Mar 5, 2021 1:13pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Actually no. I will look to stay in a trade once it has gone into green (positive) territory and bag whatever it gives me, closing with at least +1 if it turns. I do not let my trades turn negative at all if they have been positive. Of course, in real life, there will be times where I am too slow on the trigger and I will have a trade go red on me. This then becomes up to my experience as to how I interpret what price is showing me. I can usually tell when I will be able to ride something out (usually fading into it as well) and whether...
Roger that. Sounds very familiar

Thank you and have a good weekend

edit: sounds familiar, apart from the experience bit
  • #56,883
  • Mar 5, 2021 4:11pm Mar 5, 2021 4:11pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I’m always happy taking when it is green but my finger refuses to function when a trade goes into the red lol. Someone wiser than myself once said, see profit, take profit. That’s another issue I have. If I’m aiming for say a 10 pip profit, I’ll keep waiting for it to hit that 10 pips. Sometimes that can result in the trade going against me, even if at one point it was 5+ pips in my favour.
I think it is okay if a trade is going against you even the fact that it has been already in profit. Otherwise you would probably have to re-enter a lot of times. I mean that is why you plan your max allowed risk in advance BEFORE even entering into a trade? Setting a SL, Counter....

But if you don't give it even a little room to fluctuate you get stopped out more often than anything else? Or you have entry trigger that is pixel perfect that every time you enter price is directly shooting up 10 Pips in your favor, lol?

If i enter a trade on the BillyBar for example and i would move my SL every time it goes from +2 to +1 i would miss taking profit for +5 nearly every day. Then i would have the option to either re-enter if price is touching the trigger price again and also pay the commission and spread again risking the re-entry now directly moves -10 against me without even having the chance to move my SL from +2 to +1 because it never goes there...

What lem is doing there sounds incredible stressful to me but if it works for him great
  • #56,884
  • Mar 5, 2021 6:29pm Mar 5, 2021 6:29pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I think it is okay if a trade is going against you even the fact that it has been already in profit. Otherwise you would probably have to re-enter a lot of times. I mean that is why you plan your max allowed risk in advance BEFORE even entering into a trade? Setting a SL, Counter.... But if you don't give it even a little room to fluctuate you get stopped out more often than anything else? Or you have entry trigger that is pixel perfect that every time you enter price is directly shooting up 10 Pips in your favor, lol? If i enter a trade...
All depends on your mindset and level of confidence I suppose. People like me suffer from fear and greed more than experienced people like Lem. He’d happily take 10 trades at 1 pip profit each. Meanwhile I’d be sitting there waiting (and praying) for my red trade to get back into the Green . Sort of happened on Dax today. Had a trade in profit by £100. Was thinking about closing it and then it turned against me. Was in £600 drawdown fairly quickly. Took a lot of effort to get back into the green. In the end I was happy to just close it for like £6 profit, over an hour later. Waste of time and also stressful. And then guess what. Of course it went in my original direction and hit my target once I had closed it. If there is one thing I need to get better at, it is cutting my losses quickly. Like I say, fear and greed.
  • #56,885
  • Mar 7, 2021 7:56am Mar 7, 2021 7:56am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} All depends on your mindset and level of confidence I suppose. People like me suffer from fear and greed more than experienced people like Lem. He’d happily take 10 trades at 1 pip profit each. Meanwhile I’d be sitting there waiting (and praying) for my red trade to get back into the Green . Sort of happened on Dax today. Had a trade in profit by £100. Was thinking about closing it and then it turned against me. Was in £600 drawdown fairly quickly. Took a lot of effort to get back into the green. In the end I was happy to just close...
Yes. I tried to say, with that kind of "hardcore scalping", i would never know where to stop/end? Do you then stop if you make your 10 Pips green for the day or do you then take another setup and another one, oh and while the sun is stil shining, lets take another one? By the end of the day you are then maybe down -30 instead of having made just one positive pip even the fact you could have done so with your first trade and called it a day?

A stop loss less than -5 Pips looks extremely tight to me even for most not so volatile markets but lem seems to trade exactly that. Like the DAX or some other indices. You must have a very very high win rate to make some money after trading costs. How long can you maintain it, a few months, a few years, longer? After a few years money actually should not be a problem anymore to you with such strike rate.

For example if would enter at $100/Pip. My stop is -5 (-$500). I already paid a -$70 upfront to the broker without price moved 0.1 Pips in any direction. Spread is 0. So i would need price to jump to at least +2 to have paid for my fees if i would have managed to get stopped out for +1.

But can you really time your entries that perfect more often than not so price won´t even jump a -5 against you before going to +2 after you entered?

I think you more realistically would probably get stopped out for -5 a couple of times in a row BEFORE even made 1 positive. After three fails at lets say -5 you are then already down -$1500. You then have to make how many more trades just to get back to break even with that +1. Well at least 1 for +16 or 16 trades for +1.

Then like you say you see price went -7 then just to move 1 minute later to +5. You lost -500 + the commission but now also need to make a new trade, a new trade = new risk, what if price then suddenly spikes -100 pips against you for no reason and you didn´t get stopped out by your broker or with some nice slippage.

I mean wow, i am just amazed how people can do this.
  • #56,886
  • Mar 8, 2021 1:55am Mar 8, 2021 1:55am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes. I tried to say, with that kind of "hardcore scalping", i would never know where to stop/end? Do you then stop if you make your 10 Pips green for the day or do you then take another setup and another one, oh and while the sun is stil shining, lets take another one? By the end of the day you are then maybe down -30 instead of having made just one positive pip even the fact you could have done so with your first trade and called it a day? A stop loss less than -5 Pips looks extremely tight to me even for most not so volatile markets but...
man, u are too negative.

enter problem solving mode.

all successful managers try to think in a problem-solving way and not to stand in front of it like a shy horse and find arguments for why something is unfeasible.

you feed and program yourself exclusively with fear. stop it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,887
  • Mar 8, 2021 2:07am Mar 8, 2021 2:07am
Morning everyone, hope you had a good weekend.

That is a big range for the Billy Bar already
  • #56,888
  • Mar 8, 2021 2:10am Mar 8, 2021 2:10am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
Morning everyone, hope you had a good weekend. That is a big range for the Billy Bar already
morning,

that is why ill leave it today.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,889
  • Mar 8, 2021 3:18am Mar 8, 2021 3:18am
Quoting birdland
{quote} man, u are too negative. enter problem solving mode. all successful managers try to think in a problem-solving way and not to stand in front of it like a shy horse and find arguments for why something is unfeasible. you feed and program yourself exclusively with fear. stop it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You're better off banging your head against a brick wall.
  • #56,890
  • Mar 8, 2021 3:30am Mar 8, 2021 3:30am
Quoting birdland
{quote} morning, that is why ill leave it today.
Got my +5 on a smaller lot. I played around a bit with countering: I went short of the low of the billybar.. then countered going long (at -5). It came back down so I closed my counter and added another short and got my original +5

Now off to try and call my internet provider again lol..
  • #56,891
  • Mar 8, 2021 4:45am Mar 8, 2021 4:45am
Dax took off - would that be BOE boss speaking?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #56,892
  • Mar 8, 2021 5:05am Mar 8, 2021 5:05am
Looking at this Billy, had the BB failed I would have shorted at the thin blue line. Very similar to what you showed me a couple of weeks ago (and exactly in line with one of my other strategies, coincidence?) if am not mistaken?
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  • #56,893
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:08am Mar 8, 2021 7:08am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
Looking at this Billy, had the BB failed I would have shorted at the thin blue line. Very similar to what you showed me a couple of weeks ago (and exactly in line with one of my other strategies, coincidence?) if am not mistaken? {image}
That's a Z-Line, so not an automatic short by any means and you should have a method to show if price is going to close over/close under that level before going blindly in. Don't be one of the sheep.

Just out of interest, which way did it go?
  • #56,894
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:20am Mar 8, 2021 7:20am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} That's a Z-Line, so not an automatic short by any means and you should have a method to show if price is going to close over/close under that level before going blindly in. Don't be one of the sheep. Just out of interest, which way did it go?
Hi Lem,

Thank you. It went down for about thirty pips.

I did not realise it was also a Z-line, I have been looking at Z-line trades but struggling to see them. Have left them for what they are for now I was getting a bit overloaded with too many ideas floating around in my head.

As for methods go, I was using a combination of short bias and/or dead zone, is that what you mean by a method to show a close over/under that level?

Out of curiosity, how would/could you approach a potential trade in this area? I have a feeling it would involve some form of "the cloud"?

Cheers, W
  • #56,895
  • Mar 8, 2021 7:38am Mar 8, 2021 7:38am
Quoting birdland
{quote} man, u are too negative. enter problem solving mode. all successful managers try to think in a problem-solving way and not to stand in front of it like a shy horse and find arguments for why something is unfeasible. you feed and program yourself exclusively with fear. stop it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GREAT advice.....meanwhile, people are putting pips and more pips in their account while others try to figure out it will fail or how to filter it or whatever other nonsense they can think up.
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #56,896
  • Mar 8, 2021 8:34am Mar 8, 2021 8:34am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Hi Lem, Thank you. It went down for about thirty pips. I did not realise it was also a Z-line, I have been looking at Z-line trades but struggling to see them. Have left them for what they are for now I was getting a bit overloaded with too many ideas floating around in my head. As for methods go, I was using a combination of short bias and/or dead zone, is that what you mean by a method to show a close over/under that level? Out of curiosity, how would/could you approach a potential trade in this area? I have a feeling it would involve...
Kl kl thanks for that. I'm guessing it was a TooSlow 1-2-3 or HOLO as well.

There is no magic to close over/close under methodology. It is as it says on the tin, you wait for price to either close over or under that level.

So in your situation, you'd have - on say the 5-min chart - a candle close below the Z-Line. You'd wait for a move and then you'll usually get a retest.

If the retest holds short - ie the candles don't close back over the level - then you get in on the drop.
  • #56,897
  • Mar 8, 2021 2:47pm Mar 8, 2021 2:47pm
Attachment g
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Kl kl thanks for that. I'm guessing it was a TooSlow 1-2-3 or HOLO as well. There is no magic to close over/close under methodology. It is as it says on the tin, you wait for price to either close over or under that level. So in your situation, you'd have - on say the 5-min chart - a candle close below the Z-Line. You'd wait for a move and then you'll usually get a retest. If the retest holds short - ie the candles don't close back over the level - then you get in on the drop.
Hey Lem, thank you for your input earlier. Went out in the sun after that.

Ha yes, it was a 1-2-3 as well, hadn't even seen that. Interesting actually, you are giving me ideas..

As for my "entry methodology" sometimes I do trade the line if I am honest, as long as I have a directional bias, but I generally combine them with a candle formation, indeed using the close of a bar over/under the line. Happy to take criticism on this as I am sure this is an area I can improve on a lot.

I'm trying to find the Z-line you were referring to. Am I correct with the green and/or red lines here? Apologies if I am regurgitating things that have been said many times before.

Cheers, W
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  • #56,898
  • Mar 8, 2021 3:32pm Mar 8, 2021 3:32pm
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
3883699{quote} Hey Lem, thank you for your input earlier. Went out in the sun after that. Ha yes, it was a 1-2-3 as well, hadn't even seen that. Interesting actually, you are giving me ideas.. As for my "entry methodology" sometimes I do trade the line if I am honest, as long as I have a directional bias, but I generally combine them with a candle formation, indeed using the close of a bar over/under the line. Happy to take criticism on this as I am sure this is an area I can improve on a lot. I'm trying to find the Z-line you were referring to....
No, that's not a Z-Line.

The one to look at is the pin / rejection bar on the smaller peak to the left. When the next price move up breaks that "pointy-place", that is a Z-Line.

So you can see that the candles in that group fail to close over that level and instead stay below, so giving you a short signal.

I am on my phone, so can't edit the image but if this still isn't clear, then let me know and I'll try and get a chart posted.

There is in fact also another one that appears later in the day, going by the chart here.
  • #56,899
  • Edited 4:15pm Mar 8, 2021 3:52pm | Edited 4:15pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} No, that's not a Z-Line. The one to look at is the pin / rejection bar on the smaller peak to the left. When the next price move up breaks that "pointy-place", that is a Z-Line. So you can see that the candles in that group fail to close over that level and instead stay below, so giving you a short signal. I am on my phone, so can't edit the image but if this still isn't clear, then let me know and I'll try and get a chart posted. There is in fact also another one that appears later in the day, going by the chart here.
Ah got you, that makes more sense, I was getting confused as the short I mentioned earlier was based off a different line.

Awesome, I was going through some of your Z-line charts in the thread and they make a lot more sense now.

Then I got sucked in to a YouTube hole when I saw While My Guitar Gently Weeps...

Have a good evening

edit: keep forgetting to add the charts
edit2: im referring to the red lines, not the blue one
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  • #56,900
  • Mar 8, 2021 5:56pm Mar 8, 2021 5:56pm
What about this gentleman? Is he fake and/or also part of the 90% of retail traders losing group...

His approach / trading philosophy seems
to be a little different to quick in
and out for a handful of pips

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