My Trade Plan for Today
NFPs at 8:30 EST
Yesterday was a significant breakdown in my opinion. 1.20 was broken on a fundamental reaction to Powell's speech, which I couldn't really pinpoint, but probably indicates that the market is eyeing rates to eventually begin rising due to economic improvement.
With a close below 1.20, I'm now looking at this as the end of the year long up trend and a pullback in terms of the weekly chart (assuming the NFPs doesn't surprise and for some reason just make the USD drop).
1 - The last extension couldn't achieve the equivalent measured move from the move in 2020, indicating slower momentum in the trade.
2 - The weekly confirmed the lower high set last week by rebreaking 1.20 into the lower low this week. If the week closes here or lower today, gives argument as perhaps the second bar in a 3 black crows pattern.
Day Trade Plan
I would be really surprised if price recaptures the pivot point of 1.1997.
I expect a very shallow bounce and a break of yesterday's lows.
I don't think a retest of 1.20 happens today because the momentum break is still happening. Thinking the retest could a happen next week but more so a test of 1.1950s.
Looking to short a bounce (possibly 1.1970-1.1980? which is so far overnight highs) that rolls over on it's lowest time frames.
Maybe 1 trade if possible during London session, and then wait until after NFPs.
Swing Trade Plan
Hold on for dear life and look for that 3rd black crow next week. I can't sell more today, see if I get an opportunity next week.
Targeting a measured move down into about 1.1860s.
NFPs at 8:30 EST
Yesterday was a significant breakdown in my opinion. 1.20 was broken on a fundamental reaction to Powell's speech, which I couldn't really pinpoint, but probably indicates that the market is eyeing rates to eventually begin rising due to economic improvement.
With a close below 1.20, I'm now looking at this as the end of the year long up trend and a pullback in terms of the weekly chart (assuming the NFPs doesn't surprise and for some reason just make the USD drop).
1 - The last extension couldn't achieve the equivalent measured move from the move in 2020, indicating slower momentum in the trade.
2 - The weekly confirmed the lower high set last week by rebreaking 1.20 into the lower low this week. If the week closes here or lower today, gives argument as perhaps the second bar in a 3 black crows pattern.
Day Trade Plan
I would be really surprised if price recaptures the pivot point of 1.1997.
I expect a very shallow bounce and a break of yesterday's lows.
I don't think a retest of 1.20 happens today because the momentum break is still happening. Thinking the retest could a happen next week but more so a test of 1.1950s.
Looking to short a bounce (possibly 1.1970-1.1980? which is so far overnight highs) that rolls over on it's lowest time frames.
Maybe 1 trade if possible during London session, and then wait until after NFPs.
Swing Trade Plan
Hold on for dear life and look for that 3rd black crow next week. I can't sell more today, see if I get an opportunity next week.
Targeting a measured move down into about 1.1860s.
