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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #12,081
  • Mar 4, 2021 2:35pm Mar 4, 2021 2:35pm
Levels to watch on EU..., if you are lazy here is the tmpl ready
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  • #12,082
  • Mar 4, 2021 7:26pm Mar 4, 2021 7:26pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, 1.25 (FE 100) long trade. Levels to watch. {image}
USDCAD 1.25 long trade update, added on a pull back to 1.26 RN/Fib 50 confluence. Seems like a bullish flag on H4. The bigger picture, it could be forming an asymmetric inverted H&Sh pattern with neckline @ 1.2750. Levels to watch.
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  • #12,083
  • Mar 4, 2021 7:35pm Mar 4, 2021 7:35pm
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD 0.77 RN long trade. Possible short setups @ 0.7850 and 0.79. {image}
AUDUSD short trade. The initial plan was to short @ 0.7850, but I had to pull the trigger based on the PA. AU is breaking below S @ 0.77, the next supports are 0.7650 and 0.76. For bigger picture, take a look at my AU weekly chart posted before. The wedge patterns on AU and NU indicate more downside to come.
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  • #12,084
  • Mar 4, 2021 7:54pm Mar 4, 2021 7:54pm
AUDCAD, posting for educational purpose, RN 0.99 and Fib 50 confluence worked well.
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  • #12,085
  • Mar 4, 2021 7:58pm Mar 4, 2021 7:58pm
BTC, the bias remains bearish below 50k handle. The next level is 44k below that 40k.
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  • #12,086
  • Mar 4, 2021 8:14pm Mar 4, 2021 8:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF 0.8875 long trade update. Levels to watch. {image}
USDCHF 0.8875 long trade update. Let's see if UCHF can break above the confluence levels @ 0.93. A failure at this level might lead to an overdue correction lower.
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  • #12,087
  • Mar 4, 2021 8:18pm Mar 4, 2021 8:18pm
EURNZD has a very interesting chart pattern on weekly. A clear break above 1.67 might open the path to 1.70.
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  • #12,088
  • Edited 3:31am Mar 5, 2021 2:16am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Here is a confluence point for a potential bottom in gold: 1- The 61.8 Fib. The 3 horizontal maroon lines are the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% fibs of the rise since the March 2020 low. The 61.8 fib is the lower one. As you can see to the left, it is a strong support/resistance level. 2- The bottom wall of the descending channel since the 8-10-2020 high. 3- The bottom wall of the potential Andrews Pitchfork drawn from the March bottom. Notice how well the center line served as support and resistance. I use this a lot to detect possible final high/low...
As I described on Tuesday, I think we may have reached the Gold swing bottom at 1686. I believe there should be a retest next week, but Gold is fickle, so it is hard to say. The fall has been steep, so there should be at least one retest. A perfect Andrews Pitchfork would imply a retest is in the cards for next week at the juncture of all the lines as seen on the chart. Hopefully it won´t break 1680/86 which is a confluence level of many Fibs and trendlines.

I placed my long limit order at 1683.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,089
  • Edited 2:50am Mar 5, 2021 2:32am | Edited 2:50am
Using the same method I used for gold, Here is the chart for the possible swing bottom for EurUsd. It is the confluence of the following:

1- The 61.8 Fib (Third maroon line). Notice previous good support/resistance to the left.

2- The bottom wall of the downtrend channel.

3- The third point of the probable Andrews Pitchfork. Notice the previous good support/resistance at the midline.

Accordingly, the bottom may be reached between today and next Tuesday at 1.1883/87. We´ll be watching for a possible long entry.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,090
  • Mar 5, 2021 5:22am Mar 5, 2021 5:22am
Quoting mrhb30jr
{quote} Price failure GBPUSD... close the trade ... SELL AUDUSD and Buy USDCAD {image} {image} {image}
Update USDCAD and AUDUSD ...
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  • #12,091
  • Mar 5, 2021 5:28am Mar 5, 2021 5:28am
XAUUSD ... my view to be Watching the price action area 1945.xx
XAGUSD ... at 24 nice number area...
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  • #12,092
  • Mar 5, 2021 5:37am Mar 5, 2021 5:37am
Quoting mizi123
Levels to watch on EU..., if you are lazy here is the tmpl ready {file} {image} {image}
Hi Mizi ... my view of euro due the support bko and depth correction of EU... i will be look for reversal at 1.18xx area ..
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  • #12,093
  • Mar 5, 2021 6:22am Mar 5, 2021 6:22am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF 0.8875 long trade update. Let's see if UCHF can break above the confluence levels @ 0.93. A failure at this level might lead to an overdue correction lower. {image}
Excellent swing trade. I remember when you took that one. Seems a long time ago.

0.93 is good level, plus with DXY hitting a decent level at 0.92 @ 50% it may serve up a nice correction.

Perhaps UJ 108.50 as well.
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  • #12,094
  • Mar 5, 2021 6:55am Mar 5, 2021 6:55am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD 0.7450 short trade update, added @ 0.73 RN and Fib 38 confluence. Levels to watch. {image}
NZDUSD 0.7450 (1st entry) and 0.73 (2nd entry) short trades. Weekly chart shows a wedge pattern that might break to the downside. The key levels are 0.71 and 0.70. A break below those levels, might open a path to 0.67/0.65.

P.S. if you are a newbie and struggling, stop trading for a while and take a closer look at what you have been doing. Examine every trades you have made. Good Trading is sometimes counterintuitive to the human mind. For example, if you have 4 trades running at the same time, 2 of them are winners and 2 of them are losers, majority of traders TP on the winners, and keep the losers in hope of turning them into winners. This is exactly the opposite of what you should have been doing. But it is difficult at first, and you need to practice it. The same goes when you add to your trades. Only add to your winning trades. Never ever add to losing trades. Always use SL (I know this is contrary to what you see some of the red diamond members tells you here). But no one can survive in the long run unless they implement a sound risk management and money management strategy. That is much more important than what trading method you use.
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  • #12,095
  • Mar 5, 2021 7:01am Mar 5, 2021 7:01am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Excellent swing trade. I remember when you took that one. Seems a long time ago. 0.93 is good level, plus with DXY hitting a decent level at 0.92 @ 50% it may serve up a nice correction. Perhaps UJ 108.50 as well. {image}
Cheers C-12. Yes, that trade needed more patience than usual.

I agree the charts are lining up across the board, we can also add EU 1.19 (Fib 61) to that list.
  • #12,096
  • Edited 7:39am Mar 5, 2021 7:01am | Edited 7:39am
Sell position in profit close NZDUSD earnings $1744, $690 = $2434 profit.

Loss positions: USDCAD -412, -150. EURUSD loss: -318. = -$880

$2434 - $880 = $1554 in profit today.

Trade safe traders, and have a good weekend.





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  • #12,097
  • Mar 5, 2021 7:57am Mar 5, 2021 7:57am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPJPY 150 RN short trade. Levels to watch. {image}
GBPJPY 148 RN long trade. Levels to watch.
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  • #12,098
  • Mar 5, 2021 8:19am Mar 5, 2021 8:19am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Cheers C-12. Yes, that trade needed more patience than usual. I agree the charts are lining up across the board, we can also add EU 1.19 (Fib 61) to that list.
Cheers. I will take you up on that EU 1.19.

1.20 on the menu for next week?
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  • #12,099
  • Mar 5, 2021 11:27am Mar 5, 2021 11:27am
NIKK225 Index ... M5 Long ..
Nice Pin Bar H1....
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  • #12,100
  • Mar 6, 2021 10:07am Mar 6, 2021 10:07am
Something interesting I found online. Let me know what you think. The chart is a monthly EURUSD.
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