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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #12,041
  • Mar 1, 2021 7:35am Mar 1, 2021 7:35am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD 1.42 short trade update. Most likely a top is in place. Selling the rallies are preferred. Levels to watch on the down side. {image}
GBPUSD 1.42 short trade update, added to the position @ 1.40. S levels to watch 1.39, 1.3850 and 1.3750. For shorts 1.40/4025.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,042
  • Mar 1, 2021 7:39am Mar 1, 2021 7:39am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD short trade update, I added to the position. Levels to watch. {image}
EURUSD short trade update. S levels to watch 1.2025 and 1.20. A rally to 1.21 might provide a short setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,043
  • Mar 1, 2021 7:42am Mar 1, 2021 7:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,044
  • Mar 1, 2021 7:50am Mar 1, 2021 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF 0.8875 long trade update. Levels to watch {image}
USDCHF 0.8875 long trade update. Levels to watch.
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  • #12,045
  • Mar 1, 2021 9:22am Mar 1, 2021 9:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4.png Size: 36 KB
  • #12,046
  • Mar 1, 2021 10:47am Mar 1, 2021 10:47am
Nu double bottom
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  • #12,047
  • Mar 1, 2021 11:10am Mar 1, 2021 11:10am
EU on interesting zone worth to monitor these level for long run
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  • #12,048
  • Mar 1, 2021 12:51pm Mar 1, 2021 12:51pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFH4.png Size: 35 KB
  • #12,049
  • Edited 7:42am Mar 2, 2021 4:49am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting shahab8b
Gold, I'm still tracking this as an expanding triangle, with the next major leg going higher after completion of the pattern. Let's see if gold stabilizes somewhere between 1700 and 1600. {image}
Here is a confluence point for a potential bottom in gold:

1- The 61.8 Fib. The 3 horizontal maroon lines are the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% fibs of the rise since the March 2020 low. The 61.8 fib is the lower one. As you can see to the left, it is a strong support/resistance level.

2- The bottom wall of the descending channel since the 8-10-2020 high.

3- The bottom wall of the potential Andrews Pitchfork drawn from the March bottom. Notice how well the center line served as support and resistance. I use this a lot to detect possible final high/low points in swings.

We´ll see if this actually happens. If it does, the 1688 bottom would be reached around March 10th.

Edit: I found another very important level to add to the other 3 points. The 38.2% Fib of the entire up move from the October 2015 bottom. It practically coincides with the other 61.8 Fib level as you can see in the second chart below. This makes the bottom at around 1680/1688 very probable in my mind. I will be playing it long when it gets there.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,050
  • Mar 2, 2021 6:26am Mar 2, 2021 6:26am
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  • #12,051
  • Mar 2, 2021 6:41am Mar 2, 2021 6:41am
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  • #12,052
  • Mar 2, 2021 6:45am Mar 2, 2021 6:45am
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  • #12,053
  • Mar 2, 2021 11:26am Mar 2, 2021 11:26am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD short trade update. S levels to watch 1.2025 and 1.20. A rally to 1.21 might provide a short setup. {image}
EURUSD 1.20 long trade. Possible short setups @ 1.21 and 1.2150.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,054
  • Mar 2, 2021 11:38am Mar 2, 2021 11:38am
AUDUSD 0.77 RN long trade. Possible short setups @ 0.7850 and 0.79.
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  • #12,055
  • Mar 2, 2021 1:41pm Mar 2, 2021 1:41pm
.... Shahab ... how do you determine Supply and Demand areas? thanks
  • #12,056
  • Mar 2, 2021 2:50pm Mar 2, 2021 2:50pm
USD/CHF outlook....
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  • #12,057
  • Mar 2, 2021 3:09pm Mar 2, 2021 3:09pm
EU i don't have entered any trade to be honest it has made a false brekout and return.... pfff ugly, but if you are long 1.21 place to take profits for others interesting lever to look for a trade
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  • #12,058
  • Mar 2, 2021 3:37pm Mar 2, 2021 3:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDCAD short trade. {image}
AUDCAD 0.98 RN long trade. Levels to watch.
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  • #12,059
  • Mar 2, 2021 3:41pm Mar 2, 2021 3:41pm
Quoting klm1011
.... Shahab ... how do you determine Supply and Demand areas? thanks
I determine S & D zones like everyone else. There are plenty of resources on the subject. You can also take a look at C-12 S&D thread. But I feel like you are missing the point here, the emphasize should be on the confluence levels (RN's, Fibs, S/R, S&D zones, and weekly or monthly pivots).
  • #12,060
  • Mar 2, 2021 4:30pm Mar 2, 2021 4:30pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I determine S & D zones like everyone else. There are plenty of resources on the subject. You can also take a look at C-12 S&D thread. But I feel like you are missing the point here, the emphasize should be on the confluence levels (RN's, Fibs, S/R, S&D zones, and weekly or monthly pivots).
.......aiming to take one solid step at a time to reach to an effective confluence application..........thanks for the reply.........
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