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Real or Algo

  • #781
  • Feb 27, 2021 11:14pm Feb 27, 2021 11:14pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} "Retail traders are mere observers of this market with no impact or responsibility in this market" Shame on you guys for believing this bullshit, we do move the market and provide a lot of liquidity to the markets. Just read the bloody tape and see when the its primary retail traders for just short periods are the ones moving price. Major players trade mostly within a narrow price channel because this is where most current liquidity on the chart sits. Their expenditure of pushing price too far away from the mean average costs them far too...
I admire your enthusiasm. But, there will be no GameStop-like opportunities or moments for retail forex traders. Retail forex traders have no impact on chart formation. None. Zero. Zip. The idea that we do is wrong, but in fact, is wasted thinking. To find an edge in forex trading, you must first embrace the reality that retail forex is not even ancillary to the functioning of the market, and our job is to understand what, why, how, and when bankers do what they do. If you aren't trying to figure that out, then the market is random, or brokers are cheating you, or the market is controlled by an algo.

Now, I don't know how many large orders the big banks process every day, but I do know how banks process those orders (it can take quite a long time, depending on how many tier 2 and 3 banks are involved, scheduled news events, option expirations, etc). While the banks are sorting out who's doing what and when, they are not thinking of us at all. Ever. We are not part of their world or thinking.

It's a mistake to think we can get in their way or influence this market. The job of the retail forex trader is to anticipate and follow. The edge is being able to understand what they are doing. THEY ALL FOLLOW STANDARD PROCESSES AND PROCEDURES. They communicate via charts. Learn to listen to them.
  • #782
  • Feb 28, 2021 12:29am Feb 28, 2021 12:29am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I admire your enthusiasm. But, there will be no GameStop-like opportunities or moments for retail forex traders. Retail forex traders have no impact on chart formation. None. Zero. Zip. The idea that we do is wrong, but in fact, is wasted thinking. To find an edge in forex trading, you must first embrace the reality that retail forex is not even ancillary to the functioning of the market, and our job is to understand what, why, how, and when bankers do what they do. If you aren't trying to figure that out, then the market is random, or brokers...
Hi GEfx

I always ask my self - am I missing something here.

EURUSD was played by the major players on Friday about 17 times where half of that volume occurred in the 1 hour period around New york open.
So half of the whole days volume occurred at the high of the day & 20 minutes either side of 1.2141.
Will that's a edge right then but moving on - if we look 4 hours and 51 minutes into that trading day, we can see only 3 orders was actioned in a complete minute.
The volume was 1/10th of the average minute bar - yet price moved 3 pips. That's F...... incredible because that means $9000 was enough to move price 3 pips on that occasion. A group of retail traders could do this easily.
Normally you would need $5 million dollars to move price 3 pips.

But hang on a moment, we were all told you need $50 million to move price 1 pip - that is what they want you do believe.

A BIG FAT LIE

I suggest traders sit down and look at the tape - and ask the question " am I missing something"
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #783
  • Feb 28, 2021 1:31am Feb 28, 2021 1:31am
Quoting moodybot
{quote}.
Hello brother.. Your good write up forced me to make a comment on your forum after years of my silence on FF.
I will try to elaborate myself point wise.

(1) It does not matter wether the market movement is by algorithem or by whatever.
(2) Forex trading is merely mathematics nothing else. You need to put this mathematical equation in your favor one way or the other.
(2) After spending loads of hours on charts and programming more than 50 bots(both commercial and personal), I believe that only and only following two trading methods and strategies can be profitable in long term.

Method #1 trading principles.
(I) To be profitable in long run, you need to keep a high risk reward e.g Risk 20 pips for making 100 pips.
(ii) Everyday price tries to establish/prove a point evident from daily close. Price either succeeded in establishing that point or failed to establish the point. That give you the trading direction for the next day. Next day trade in that direction.
(III) After finding trade direction .. try to find out the "fighting point" i.e what price the market was trying to achieve.Make that point, your entry point with a tight stop loss of 20 to 25 points. Examine that your Take point is within the reach i.e price was in that area few days ago.
(Iv) Be strict to your risk reward rules. Either let it hit your stop lose or let it hit your TP.
(v) Take whatever market is offering to you at weekly close. Don't let market to hit your Stop losses because of widen spreads or gaps at w next weekly open.

Method #2 Principles.

This method is more of automation nature not manual because of complex and lenghty calculations required . And if you have enough supporting money, it can make you feel in the rain of pips.

(I) Accept that market is totally random and it can go anywhere. And you don't know where the market will go next moment or in long run.
(2) Accept that all the stop losses hit while following this method is "The loan that you hv to provide while doing any business". Don't worry sooner or later all the loan will be returned to you with huge profit.
(3) You keep buying or selling with buy stops/sell stops at certain distances. And each trade is accompanied by stop loss of same distance.
(4) Each executed buy trade SL is accompanied by a SELL stop and vice versa for executed sell trade.
(5) You will get too many stop losses while following this method. But this is the loan of that business.
(6) Expert advisor will hv a count that how many SLs have been hit. And derived from this SLs count, how many trades needs to be executed to recover these SLs plus make the profit. For example let's say that my trades are at distance of 20 pips (and hence a stop loss of 20 pips).
Let's assume that while in operation you incurred 300 stop losses (uhhh too many stop losses . But don't worry). To recover these SLs, how many trades need to be executed? Yes I need to execute 24 trades to recover these 300 SLs. ok I set the robot to execute 3 more trades after achieving the target of 300 SLs recovery. So in that particular case we need 27 trades. 27 trades and each trade at a distance of 20 pips. Let's calculate how much pips we will be earning after 27 trades are executed.

After executing trades, how much SLs will be recovered?

27+26+25+24+23..........+1=378 SLs.
So with 27 trades executed we recovered 378 SL. out of which 300 SLs are our hit stop losses. So we are achieving 78 SLs as our profit.

How much pips we earned for 78 SLs?
78 x 20 =1560 pips.
So we made 1560 pips is our return. Our profit.

For 27 trades I need a movement 540 pips. (27 x 20=540 pips). So a movement of 540 pips is required.

A movement of 540 pips? Is this possible in market?
Yes possible. Open the chart of gold. Gold can travel more than 200 pips every day most of the times.
Note: Don't try to automtae this method 2 with just few basic rules I mentioned here. You may loose money.
After months and months of bascktesting, experiences and testing... I hv made it almost perfect. Tailored the EA to cash almost majority of the situations of the market.

This is what I HV for you. My opinion. My experience. You hv the freedom to agree or disagree. But markets are totally conquerable.
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #784
  • Feb 28, 2021 10:14am Feb 28, 2021 10:14am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi GEfx I always ask my self - am I missing something here. EURUSD was played by the major players on Friday about 17 times where half of that volume occurred in the 1 hour period around New york open. So half of the whole days volume occurred at the high of the day & 20 minutes either side of 1.2141. Will that's a edge right then but moving on - if we look 4 hours and 51 minutes into that trading day, we can see only 3 orders was actioned in a complete minute. The volume was 1/10th of the average minute bar - yet price moved 3 pips. That's...
Hi RickM,
I don't know if you are missing something, or maybe I'm missing something. I rely on my proprietary charting service to imbed volume information into several indicators on my charts. So tape data is not something that I spend time with. Instead, whatever volume data that is used, gets digested into my charts and is presented in several different ways.

Volume data is important, but it is just data. Whatever volume has been processes in the market is one thing, but what we don't know is, what volume is about to hit the market. That's where the chart narrative comes into play. For example, the notion of a false breakout from a S/R perhaps isn't a trap for unsuspecting retail traders, but instead can be interpreted to be a bank asking the market if they are game to move beyond that S/R, with the resulting PA from other institutions providing the answer. In this case, reading volume data gives you only one piece of this discussion, when in reality, it may be best to just read the charts and wait for the answer. Several posts back in this thread, TimeTells suggested that it's best to wait for directional momentum to become clear before taking a trade, and I agree with that, at least in part. Volume doesn't always follow intent, but usually waits for the conversation to develop a bit, and waits for the crowd to show their intent. And as this conversation is taking place, all bankers are following nearly the same set of internal processes and procedures, which are used to first protect the integrity of the banks book, and then its operations. This is where we can see what they are up to, because this work is imbedded in the charts.

As for the E$ on Friday: I was riding the G$ and the GA on Friday, so I had to go back and review the E$. Without looking back at such things as news and options expirations, I read the intent to retace the pair at around the open, and that is what it did (the read at that time also indicated a possible range or holding pattern, so that was also on the table). About 4 hours later there was a strong indication that someone was, or some people were, ready to resume the trend. As for the volume that it took to form all these candle, that is less important to me than the fact that it happened (if someone had disagreed with this continuation, we'd have seen it, so the move was generally approved to everyone). RickM, I know you are aware of the PA on Friday, so please don't think I am being condescending to you. I'm just trying to elaborate on perspective a bit here.

Finally, I agree that at times of low volume, it is possible for retail traders to cause a candle to flicker a bit. But our objective is not to flicker a candle. We are here to follow big money as they form candles on the 4H and Day charts. We don't have the capacity to charge 10 4H candle towards a S/R target, for example, which is where we should be focusing our attention.

Good trading RickM!
  • #785
  • Edited 7:54pm Feb 28, 2021 6:02pm | Edited 7:54pm
Quoting GEfx
Several posts back in this thread, TimeTells suggested that it's best to wait for directional momentum to become clear before taking a trade, and I agree with that, at least in part. Volume doesn't always follow intent, but usually waits for the conversation to develop a bit, and waits for the crowd to show their intent. And as this conversation is taking place, all bankers are following nearly the same set of internal processes and procedures, which are used to first protect the integrity of the banks book, and then its operations. This is where...
Many traders cite directional momentum from a physics perspective in their chart reading, importing physics into economics. Velocity may be interpreted as the rate of price change, however the issue is with what equivalent metrics do we use for mass? Since I adopt an objective quantitative mindset to trading I have the following questions in mind before I assimilate such adapted ideas. Earlier I asked TimeTells these questions which ofc I ALWAYS ask myself similar probe questions followed by extensive statistical research before I assume or adapt any idea.
Quoting BWilliam
You wrote that "once directional momentum has been established". This contain a lot of assumptions in it. It implies a move towards a destination, ie. target. It assumes there exist a objective quantification of this "momentum" from a physics sense. At what point of metrics do we declare that a directional momentum has been established? Hard questions again. That bear no definition.
Know what you trade
  • #786
  • Feb 28, 2021 9:20pm Feb 28, 2021 9:20pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} You wrote that "once directional momentum has been established". This contain a lot of assumptions in it. It implies a move towards a destination, ie. target. It assumes there exist a objective quantification of this "momentum" from a physics sense. At what point of metrics do we declare that a directional momentum has been established?
In the case of a trend change: after the confirmation that direction bias has changed, and targets in the new direction are reached, tested, and breached (this implies that there is evidence that bank trading processes are being deployed).

And btw, this is evidence that the single algo theory is false, too. Well, that and the fact that an algo can't create money, among others.
  • #787
  • Feb 28, 2021 10:58pm Feb 28, 2021 10:58pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} In the case of a trend change: after the confirmation that direction bias has changed, and targets in the new direction are reached, tested, and breached (this implies that there is evidence that bank trading processes are being deployed). And btw, this is evidence that the single algo theory is false, too. Well, that and the fact that an algo can't create money, among others.
It’s funny how the markets perform the same dick dance, day in, day out. The same moves performed on a fractal basis on all time frames.
It’s just an Algorithm, nothing more nothing less.
The algo has one job and one job only, to induce traders to place stops, then take them out.
  • #788
  • Mar 1, 2021 12:57am Mar 1, 2021 12:57am
Quoting moodybot
It’s just an Algorithm, nothing more nothing less. The algo has one job and one job only, to induce traders to place stops, then take them out.
100% agree! I see it the same way. Day by day the same.
Observer effect
  • #789
  • Mar 1, 2021 3:01am Mar 1, 2021 3:01am
No paid volume or magic indicators required. No Gamestop short squeeze required. Just simple counting the math for 20pips.
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Know what you trade
  • #790
  • Mar 1, 2021 3:28am Mar 1, 2021 3:28am
For sophisticated trading strategy, it's the simple what goes up must come down. And don't mess around when a red news is scheduled for realease. That's 35pips when the market floats around to nowhere like a drunkard.

I won't post anymore of such trades less they attract accusation of charlatan.
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  • #791
  • Edited 4:24am Mar 1, 2021 3:48am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting TimeTells
So the chicken and egg. Do the fibs come first (sometimes they do), does the maths come first (sometimes it will), and also will the pre-printed linear swing targets come first - yes they also will.
I am simple minded person who don't think that much about chicken and egg. I think of trading as buying and selling bananas. I must be plain lucky to get both fibs to work. And why first is 62.5% and 2nd 50%, the algo has lots of tricks up it's sleeve ? and why chose GJ and not GU which don't work ? And why don't sell NOW since it's sitting on 50%(old trick don't work all the time) ? Or perhaps I post only those that work, who knows.

Edit - I do know that if any trader can make 15pips or more profit a trade in that drunkard whipsaw "noise" he does know something.
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Know what you trade
  • #792
  • Edited 5:56am Mar 1, 2021 5:42am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I am simple minded person who don't think that much about chicken and egg. I think of trading as buying and selling bananas. I must be plain lucky to get both fibs to work. And why first is 62.5% and 2nd 50%, the algo has lots of tricks up it's sleeve ? and why chose GJ and not GU which don't work ? And why don't sell NOW since it's sitting on 50%(old trick don't work all the time) ? Or perhaps I post only those that work, who knows. Edit - I do know that if any trader can make 15pips or more profit a trade in that drunkard whipsaw...
Well done!
  • #793
  • Mar 1, 2021 8:05am Mar 1, 2021 8:05am
People say don't catch a falling knife. Don't stand in front of a runaway train. When everyone say don't do I put in lots of practice to do just that BUT I chose carefully which knife to catch. No paid volume data reading the tape required. Why bother when the entire GBP market is rising.
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  • #794
  • Mar 1, 2021 8:20am Mar 1, 2021 8:20am
Perfect practice makes perfect. The trick is to chose the pair that's the less threatening knife to catch. Check the charts to see how my choices look like, whether they make sense. I'm done for the day.

The main lesson here is NEVER let other people tell you what can or cannot be done.
If you can trade whipsaw "noise" the algo paint the illusion to deceive traders the rest of the market is simple to you.
Happy trading for the week. Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #795
  • Mar 1, 2021 8:34am Mar 1, 2021 8:34am
Quoting BWilliam
Perfect practice makes perfect. {image}
Where did I hear this phrase before...........?

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13418948
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #796
  • Mar 1, 2021 8:40am Mar 1, 2021 8:40am
Quoting BWilliam
Perfect practice makes perfect. The trick is to chose the pair that's the less threatening knife to catch. Check the charts to see how my choices look like, whether they make sense. I'm done for the day. The main lesson here is NEVER let other people tell you what can or cannot be done. If you can trade whipsaw "noise" the algo paint the illusion to deceive traders the rest of the market is simple to you. Happy trading for the week. Cheers. {image}
The great algo in the sky has let me sell G$ and GA this morning in a continuation of trading last week. If you've been buying, I've been the knife? Lol...hope you are well and I look forward to more discussions with you. Best wishes.
  • #797
  • Mar 1, 2021 8:48am Mar 1, 2021 8:48am
One last post which I think is very important.

Where does the edge sit on the chart ?

We can't trade the past, you have to figure out the answer for the future, the right hand side of the chart else you are merely guessing.

Quoting GEfx
The great algo in the sky has let me sell G$ and GA this morning in a continuation of trading last week. If you've been buying, I've been the knife? Lol...hope you are well and I look forward to more discussions with you. Best wishes.
I always enjoyed the discussion with you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #798
  • Mar 1, 2021 3:03pm Mar 1, 2021 3:03pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}

I am simple minded person who don't think that much about chicken and egg. I think of trading as buying and selling bananas. I must be plain lucky to get both fibs to work. And why first is 62.5% and 2nd 50%, the algo has lots of tricks up it's sleeve ? and why chose GJ and not GU which don't work ? And why don't sell NOW since it's sitting on 50%(old trick don't work all the time) ? Or perhaps I post only those that work, who knows. Edit - I do know that if any trader can make 15pips or more profit a trade...

Hi BW,

Yes, I can also see it as an Algo - running the show.

(as I witness too many repetitions of similar recurring scenarios)

While it's just narrative though. Doesn’t actually matter if it is an Algo, or it isn’t, in the end.



Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Many traders cite directional momentum from a physics perspective in their chart reading, importing physics into economics.{quote}


Sorry, I was offline-FF all day yesterday. I had some friends over for lunch (other retirees ).

May I suggest we forget thinking of physics and momentum in relation to forex language.


The term momentum actually means something else to me, well in Forex.
(not as the mass & velocity of an object).


To me momentum is the actual “dance” of the market.

And to whether price is moving as a quick-step, or maybe a slow waltz.


So trading for me now is observing for Momentum (as it happens fractally, ie on different time frames).

And also waiting for exhaustion, following momentum.

AND Targets, of course.


I will watch the full prior price dance, leading up to any trade, including recent days PA.

I won’t jump in a trade just anywhere.


Yesterday:

+6p and +7p (Asia session an hour after Tokyo open) Two scalp trades, was in the market for 5 mins

had lunch, farwelled guests

and later +7p (London open session) a scalp trade, was in the market for a total of 6 mins.

for +20p for the day, two sessions, then did some other things.


A good enough day in how I play the markets marginally. I was happy.

I am also happy for you BW on your trading success yesterday. Nice work.

You have your maths working well I can see.

(We can tease each other a little about maths / momentum, all just some fun )

Trade safe, trade well.
  • #799
  • Mar 1, 2021 3:08pm Mar 1, 2021 3:08pm
Oh yeah, got some pics from the day (not the guests though )



.
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  • #800
  • Edited 4:01pm Mar 1, 2021 3:15pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
Several posts back in this thread, TimeTells suggested that it's best to wait for directional momentum to become clear before taking a trade, and I agree with that,
at least in part.

Hi GEfx,

Cheers.

And yes I understand, and do agree, it is only up to a point.

all the best
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