EURUSD only

Thanks

Weekly Analysis (of my trading. Week 8, 2021)

A spiral of heavy losses starting Monday and culminating in a climax of emotional unbalance on Friday, resulted in a weekly result of -96%.

A number of factors were at play from the start. Firstly, I was coming from a -21% the previous week. I also had just received notification that from my broker, that due to regulatory changes of by the competent authority (Bahamas), starting from March, they would have lowered the leverage to 1:200; this would negatively impact my small account. Both induced a sense of urgency to make money.

The price dynamics this week was different again; the intraday swings were of greater amplitude than the weeks I was rolling in +12% but not as unidirectional and momentous as week 7 (except for Thursday). What I did then wasn't suited and resulted in my positions reaching high risk threshold right before retrs. The only day I was in synch was Thursday and I wasn't able to exploit it because other engagements prevented me from trading in early London session. Of course I was frustrated. Before price reversed and plunged I knew something was wrong with my previous "up" view and I hedged my longs; yet I wasn't limber enough to reverse my position. As account grew smaller I didn't adjust my position size, couldn't even, later on. Things I had in previous weeks, when doing well, and were completely missing this week, was the keen awareness of the risks, and a healthy lack of emotional responsiveness to adverse price excursions, not due to arrogance, but to the small position size and technical focus. Cautious optimism was replaced by high tension.

I know that my technical skills are good enough; my posted calls were most often correct. But discretionary trading isn't about what you know or even consciously expect; it's about the response to emotional stimuli. My methods are more structured than in my previous stints at trading; that's good, but I won't increase structure; that comes with its own drawbacks. Need to recognize and adapt more quickly to price dynamics changes. the practices that work wonders in one are damaging in different conditions, which is why those running the game do that. I really have to cut marginal ops that I frequently get into and that only add risk of emotionally upsetting me, for no real gain, and exhaust me mentally making me unavailable when better opportunities present. I can identify those and am already quite consciously aware when I get into them. More frequent breaks and meditation to reset the emotional status.

The root factor leading to bad discretionary trading is fear. That leads to hesitation and self doubt (missing the better opportunities), leading to frustration, disregard for technicals and despondency in the face of losses.

Here's what's next. Closing my 1:400 account because of the regulatory changes and restarting with a new broker, 1:500 leverage. I downloaded and installed an EA that will automatically close all orders and positions at given equity loss. It's a blunt tool, but at this point, necessary for me as an impartial signal of emotional or technical failure and need to recover and reassess. I also need a few days off as I can sense I am still not, right now, in the right mind.

Acording to the rules, after such a fast drop it has to correct 20-30-40 pips at least. As corongumet said, sellers need a little rest. But just a little.

ADP NFP it can make drop again

Hey, yea i reckon we could see a sustained dollar rally. We'll see on Monday but I expect indices to get hammered next week, based on what's happening in fixed income. If it does then we could see sustained bear mode on Euro. We are reacting off of weekly supply, and the next weekly demand is down at 1.1745-1.18830. If we take out the low around 1.1960 then that would be my first target. However, I just notice we're in a bull flag on the daily chart so we may just be testing the bottom of that around the 1.19 level. Hopefully get some retracement tomorrow then think about shorting, depending how the market reacts. I think the fears that are playing out in fixed income supersedes the stimulus approval, but you never know. The idea that the worlds largest economy might have trouble funding their deficit is huge. The market has known about the stimulus for a while, it is not a surprise that it has passed. Just IMO, we are surely due a stock market correction. The GME/reddit drama was a bit of a red flag that an asset price bubble is forming

Funny everyone in their dog was short dollar (including me). I noticed the last BoA Global Fund Manager survey (i used to take part in this survey) was saying long dollar, though. See what happens next week- I don't really do longer term predictions like this but I like to talk about it.

Cup & handle

I updated my wave count for the daily chart..

1. Right now we are inside the red triangle and about to test the bottom area 1.2035.. Bears have the upper hand but long term direction depends on how well this 1.2035 area can support..
2. A bearish breakout would confirm my ABC correction (wave 4) suspicion and that way next bear target would be 1.1833 area (roughly)..
3. Bulls need to clearly break above 1.2160 area for continuation (since based on my wave count a final wave 5 is still necessary). Mid-term speaking, I can already tell that 1.2395 area act as a bad-ass resistance once/if we get there..
4. Long story short: let's see first how bears will perform this week.. If they reach c4 area it would complete a bullish Gartley that then can support bulls for new highs.. I feel like bulls gonna need a lot of patience.. Time will tell..

Enjoy your Sunday folks.. Cheers

Defferent counting but some key level, my key 1.185x and its going up break and close 1.2061.

Started my week with +14 pips

divergence on daily can indicate short term bear run

Pair: EurUsd
Direction: short
Entry:1.2105 (or higher)
Stop Loss:1.2143
Take profit: Target 1: 1.2050
Target 2: 1.2020
Target 3: 1.2000

ideal entry for me is 1.2115-1.2125

In my opinion 1.20680 is the most crucial support and most hold level for bulls. As long as we dont take out last weeks low, bull will have upper hand and we will probably have a bullish engulfing week, else bears will be targeting 1.1900-1.15000 area.

In order words,

Buy limit @ 1.20680
Sl 10 pips (just incase the low is taken out)
Tp 1.22277

Good Morning.

H1 Status Update

Bulls are retesting previous aggressive sell level: 1.20965.. Let's see where and when rejection will come..

*Violation until 1.2103 area is still okay for bears but once/if price rises above this area bulls could take back the lead!

Ok, it has done!
Now we have to reach this little peak at 1,2101 then we will look for next move.

For the current day I am noticing USD weakness on my Dashboard.. I leave out the details but I used only the pairs related to USD.. The green color takes over on all time frames roughly higher than M30.. Therefore I am not against selling but just be careful with your timing.. Don't rush!

Hello Guys,

Best of luck for the week.

I am looking forward to milk 200 pips for eur this week. Lets see if I can achieve the target.

Following Ata's view.

Trade and have fun.

I am delaying selling.. I suspect this low volume drop.. London just opened.. Will wait and decide after an hour..

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