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Real or Algo

  • #761
  • Feb 27, 2021 2:44am Feb 27, 2021 2:44am
Quoting TimeTells
Once directional momentum is established I can see that a journey has begun. (as continuation or reversal) Major/minor (fractal based) Targets I can visualise as potential destinations. I then might choose to “buy” a ticket on that train.
I see a little problem with most charts provided. The problem is that the decision to buy ticket to the train or not comes from the future data, not from momentum. People show why they have taken the trade using data from the future that was not available at the moment of entry. That is the main and the biggest fake of all that millions "simple" strategies here. That's why I love to read all the RickM stuff, he explain everything with existing data available.

Quoting BWilliam
FF is a trading forum where we're anonymous.
I think this is not a problem because 99% of people that are not anonymous in real life are the same jerks too acting mostly the same manner like on forums. But good news that we have the ignore button here on FF as a holy sword. Just ignore idiots and don't read all that bullshit. The ability to work with information is also very important in trading. For example that Words & Wisdom from an Airline Pilot longread is just a waste of time. It is useless set of letters that will give you nothing and just will take your time. So what can you take/learn from the guy who have posted it? Nothing. So you can ignore that user for sure. He will never share any good stuff because people don't change.
Observer effect
  • #762
  • Edited 5:06am Feb 27, 2021 3:10am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting ryuryu
I see a little problem with most charts provided. The problem is that the decision to buy ticket to the train or not comes from the future data, not from momentum. People show why they have taken the trade using data from the future that was not available at the moment of entry. That is the main and the biggest fake of all that millions "simple" strategies here. That's why I love to read all the RickM stuff, he explain everything with existing...
You are correct to say that we use current available data to make a decision NOW where the outcome is determined in the future.

Reading the tape orderflow trading is as old as the hills.

The best selling point of orderflow trading is this privilege experience of watching the "real" transactions happen in real time. That has a strong convincing element.

Hard questions,

1. Institutional traders have complete access to orderflow. Why are there so many failed institutional traders with Masters and PhD qualifications after they receive the best sophisticated training worth thousands per trader and they are equipped with the best state of the art equipment, data and support ?

2. Why trade forex instead of stocks and futures where there's legitimate proper level2 orderflow data ?

Watch this video among the plenty level2 orderflow videos then make your millions, it's that simple. Do you believe that ?
Inserted Video
Know what you trade
  • #763
  • Feb 27, 2021 3:33am Feb 27, 2021 3:33am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}
I see a little problem with most charts provided. The problem is that the decision to buy ticket to the train or not comes from the future data, not from momentum.

Hi ryuryu


The “data” for me, IS …. the Targets.

And best of all, they are data that is already printed on the chart, into the ‘future’.

Fairly simple. No major maths required.


Then it’s the trading & scalping of momentum and exhaustion. Nothing else as I do it.


Once a trader is ‘flowing’ with the market movements it ‘can’ become second nature.

The guys in the pits in the old days knew this I believe (the ones without any hand held computers).

(And having a defined pre-plan for any change in market behaviour is a given).



The algo, or a number of algo’s, competing against a major algo is a common contention here I would say.

And appears the interesting modern activity of the markets.

As it has brought computerisation and (maths) equations right into the play.


But once all the massive and minor data is digested by the algo, and then combined with current buy/sell loadings in play, plus the limit orders sitting further out in ‘space’.

Then price (when it’s not remaining flat) must still either go up or down.


That is the simplicity AND complexity of all the (visual, technical, fundamental and mathematical etc) considerations that have ‘already occurred’ and will now occur.

Simple & complex at the same time.

Probably WHY there are some 12,000+ threads on FF.

And all are attempting methods to ultimately choose - “up or down” - at a point in time in the future.


For me, the algo will ultimately reach a linear Target.

How the algo gets to any Target is non-linear.

THAT imo is very important.


And we all do it a little differently in the end, it seems.

Good discussions.
  • #764
  • Feb 27, 2021 3:34am Feb 27, 2021 3:34am
Quoting BWilliam
Hard questions
Good questions. I like excel. So if in one column we have forex with fake data and stocks/futures with real I'll choose stocks. Just because 1 is better than 0. But next step we have to add more columns in our excel. They are: minimum deposit, qualification exam, special software etc. And then forex wins. And I'm not talking even about the price for programmers to make bots not for well known metatrader...

I think most people trade on forex because the entry level is extremely easy. You don't need to qualify and the only you need is 100$. To trade stocks/futures you have to spend more time to get in.
Observer effect
  • #765
  • Feb 27, 2021 4:00am Feb 27, 2021 4:00am
Quoting TimeTells
Hi ryuryu The “data” for me, IS …. the Targets. And best of all, they are data that is already printed on the chart, into the ‘future’. Fairly simple. No major maths required. Then it’s the trading & scalping of momentum and exhaustion. Nothing else as I do it. Once a trader is ‘flowing’ with the market movements it ‘can’ become second nature. The guys in the pits in the old days knew this I believe (the ones without any hand held computers). (And having a defined pre-plan for any change in market behaviour is a given). The algo, or a number...
If I simply throw few darts on the computer screen and mark them target 1, 2, 3.... The market will reach those random targets as well. No different from extrapolating lines from past prominent highs and lows.

You wrote that "once directional momentum has been established". This contain a lot of assumptions in it. It implies a move towards a destination, ie. target. It assumes there exist a objective quantification of this "momentum" from a physics sense. At what point of metrics do we declare that a directional momentum has been established?

Hard questions again. That bear no definition.

This is the kind of hard questions posed in the face to face discussion with real people.

Quoting ryuryu
For example that Words & Wisdom from an Airline Pilot longread is just a waste of time. It is useless set of letters that will give you nothing and just will take your time. So what can you take/learn from the guy who have posted it? Nothing. So you can ignore that user for sure. He will never share any good stuff because people don't change.
I seriously wonder why post that kind of write up that's to ME a complete nonsense. I can understand its popular with those new to this business.
Know what you trade
  • #766
  • Feb 27, 2021 4:22am Feb 27, 2021 4:22am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
If I simply throw few darts on the computer screen and mark them target 1, 2, 3.... The market will reach those random targets as well. No different from extrapolating lines from past prominent highs and lows.

Hi BW,

Well I always assumed you subscribed to logic.

Yet you offer here a completely illogical premise.

So I guess you might be trolling me again. Fair enough, I can laugh also.



For others, with a clear mind & who have read George’s original thread, they will more easily recognise that targets are empirical “swing targets”.

Hard printed on a chart, nothing random about them at all.


Do you remember the times, BW, where you posted a chart after the event of your trades asking “who” might have also thought that price would have gone to your maths lines?

And I then posted a chart (each time) showing it was "exactly” (interestingly to me, as it turned out lol) the very same linear Target point/price on the chart.

The same.

That fascinated me for another reason. Because when George was wanting to show me the waves & fibs (of which I had little real interest), the number of times he presented a chart that was also at the same swing Targets was amazing.

So the chicken and egg. Do the fibs come first (sometimes they do), does the maths come first (sometimes it will), and also will the pre-printed linear swing targets come first - yes they also will.


So the concept of throwing a random dart, BW, is just nonsense as you well know, but makes a funny denigrating post I guess.

(Because, unless your dart throwing skill is highly exemplary, then a random dart you throw just landing also on a swing target would be an amazing feat.)


We all do things differently. You shouldn’t be in fits and declaring another traders' methods can’t work (and especially if they do , well most of the time).

This is Forex lol.
  • #767
  • Feb 27, 2021 4:30am Feb 27, 2021 4:30am
Quoting TimeTells
For others, with a clear mind & who have read George’s original thread, they will more easily recognise that targets are empirical “swing targets”. Hard printed on a chart, nothing random about them at all.
Asking hard questions is not denigrating. You read legitimate questions asked as trolling, always.

If this is so, then no one is entitled to ask the hard questions. That's my point in my earlier post about the difference between face to face discussion with a real person, and discussion on a forum. The hard questions are asked about the subject matter. You read it as to denigrate George targets idea. The problem is yours.

Since you don't feel comfortable being asked the hard questions, which usually is the case, then forget I asked those questions and happily accept wholesale what you presented. No problem, questions withdrawn. May peace and status quo return to the forum.
Know what you trade
  • #768
  • Feb 27, 2021 4:49am Feb 27, 2021 4:49am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
If I simply throw few darts on the computer screen and mark them target 1, 2, 3.... The market will reach those random targets as well.

Hi BW,

Quote
Asking hard questions is not denigrating. You read legitimate questions asked as trolling, always.


Well you did NOT ask a question (easy or hard).

You made a statement. See above.

(Though you often add to your posts at a later stage and often delete them also lol).



Now, I could also ask you hard questions to show & prove how your maths method is derived.

You state that it works.
  • #769
  • Feb 27, 2021 9:45am Feb 27, 2021 9:45am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi ryuryu The “data” for me, IS …. the Targets. And best of all, they are data that is already printed on the chart, into the ‘future’. Fairly simple. No major maths required.
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Once a trader is ‘flowing’ with the market movements it ‘can’ become second nature.
Hi TimeTells
Sorry but it looks like magic. You can feel the market and predict (!) the target price, because trading is simple. I will not be surprised if you say that you foresaw the fall in the price of gold on Friday. But since I'm not a wizard but a human I can't discuss magic approaches (just because I don’t have a magic wand and I didn’t graduate from wizard courses). So I have to use mathematics, tape data, volumes, indicators and all that boring human stuff.
Observer effect
  • #770
  • Feb 27, 2021 10:35am Feb 27, 2021 10:35am
mix model
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie01.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #771
  • Edited 2:25pm Feb 27, 2021 1:32pm | Edited 2:25pm
Quoting ryuryu
Hi TimeTells Sorry but it looks like magic. You can feel the market and predict (!) the target price, because trading is simple. I will not be surprised if you say that you foresaw the fall in the price of gold on Friday. But since I'm not a wizard but a human I can't discuss magic approaches (just because I don’t have a magic wand and I didn’t graduate from wizard courses). So I have to use mathematics, tape data, volumes, indicators and all that boring human stuff.
This problem persist on forums where magic happens. We're to believe the 12000 strategies on FF work and we're not suppose to ask sensible, logical questions. Any question is interpreted as an insult with negative intent, bad attitude. Like George wrote that his target idea is not open to discussion while he repeatedly ask for feedback at the same time. Tbf to George and TimeTells, they're not alone. It's prevalent on this entire forum. Such discussion ALWAYS descend to senseless argument followed by the usual drama.
Attached Image
Know what you trade
  • #772
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:44pm Feb 27, 2021 5:44pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote}
Hi TimeTells Sorry but it looks like magic.
You can feel the market and predict (!) the target price, because trading is simple.
But since I'm not a wizard but a human I can't discuss magic approaches (just because I don’t have a magic wand and I didn’t graduate from wizard courses).

So I have to use mathematics, tape data, volumes, indicators and all that boring human stuff.

Hahaa ryu don't feel concerned that you might see something as magic.

Actual Magic of course (in the concept that I think you use it) doesn't exist, as we all know.

What used to be known as magic in the old days, where people were mesmerised by what magicians did, was simply as we know now as quickness of hand while moving the perception of the viewer away from the "event being constructed'.

An illusion if you like.

Others on here have mentioned that the FX Algo draws all the candles on your charts as an illusion.

To decieve the trader. Similar to a magician.


So do you, yourself, see candles being drawn as an illusion to trick the trader? (ie magic)

I mean, could a chart candle be called an illusion (magic).

Could volumes from a decentralised liquidity broker be called an illusion (magic if you like).

And if candles are illusions, then any indicator using those "illusory" candles would also be some illusory trick would it not?


In fact, the only substance you have mentioned as a trade assistance in your 'boring human stuff' is - maths.

And I think that (maths) would be a great discusssion.

But firstly, before the maths, what do you say about the ILLUSION that has been mentioned on this thread (and others) here in regards to the FX Algo working to present its "magic" on our charts?
  • #773
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:48pm Feb 27, 2021 5:48pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote}
I will not be surprised if you say that you foresaw the fall in the price of gold on Friday.


Lol, I am getting to understand your character the more you post, thank you.


As I have mentioned in my posts I do not forsee anything.

Price either goes up or down (when it is not stationary)

I WAIT until directional momentum is underway.

No magic. Pretty simple really.
  • #774
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:58pm Feb 27, 2021 5:58pm
Quoting MoritzLehman
mix model {image}

You are looking at the big (real) structure of the market.

My only suggestion, if I may, is ...

WAIT

until a new directional momentum is underway.

The FX market has a way of spitting out early enterers in a trade (eg whipsaws, fake n flips, pin bar stop out runs)

So wait is my simple advice

(especially with AUD which has a prior history of long and extended directional runs)

(and imho, what happens AT pivot points is less important than what happens AFTER price moves away - in either direction - from any pivot point, but each to their own here)
  • #775
  • Edited 7:03pm Feb 27, 2021 6:36pm | Edited 7:03pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} 1. Institutional traders have complete access to orderflow. Why are there so many failed institutional traders with Masters and PhD qualifications after they receive the best sophisticated training worth thousands per trader and they are equipped with the best state of the art equipment, data and support ? https://youtu.be/miTB6nnASkY
The notion that bank traders have complete access to order flow is wrong ( they mostly know order flow details for their bank, with less access to orders from other institutions). But order flow, tape data, etc offer up a very incomplete picture of what's happening or what's about to happen. Order flow is data without perspective, and perspective comes from understanding strategies and execution plans from all the banks (the strategies and execution plans are common among banks, and are part of bank training you spoke of).

As for why highly credentialed bank traders fail, keep in mind that the successful traders are also highly credentialed. Since the universe of bank traders is made up of highly credentialed people, the distribution of success and failure will be among a lot of smart people. And we know that trading involves more bodily organs than brains, to includes heart, guts and balls.
  • #776
  • Edited 7:39pm Feb 27, 2021 7:27pm | Edited 7:39pm
Quoting GEfx
The notion that bank traders have complete access to order flow is wrong ( they mostly know order flow details for their bank, with less access to orders from other institutions). But order flow, tape data, etc offer up a very incomplete picture of what's happening or what's about to happen. Order flow is data without perspective, and perspective comes from understanding strategies and execution plans from all the banks (the strategies and execution plans are common among banks, and are part of bank training you spoke of). As for why highly...
Excellent answer, this is the level of response required if discussion on forum is to be fruitful and useful to members. Thank you GEfx for showing the way.

I have confidence in the active participants on this thread that if we cast our ego aside, adopt a little more trust we're all capable to handle this level of discussion.
Know what you trade
  • #777
  • Feb 27, 2021 7:59pm Feb 27, 2021 7:59pm
Quoting GEfx
But order flow, tape data, etc offer up a very incomplete picture of what's happening or what's about to happen. Order flow is data without perspective, and perspective comes from understanding strategies and execution plans from all the banks (the strategies and execution plans are common among banks, and are part of bank training you spoke of).
I have asked this question repeatedly, "where does the edge come from" for a retail trader?

This is the most important question that must be properly answered by any trader if he wish to be successful. Inversely, it can be expected that every successful trader has a unwavering, confident, objective and clear answer to this question.

GEfx, as usual to be expected from you, you have given the answer in that bolded statement.

We must understand that we are not participants in this interbank market. Retail traders are mere observers of this market with no impact or responsibility in this market. Our challenge is limited to understand the strategies and execution plans of financial institutions as one whole, and from which we derive our trading strategy based on this understanding. This is where our edge comes from.

Quoting GEfx
As for why highly credentialed bank traders fail, keep in mind that the successful traders are also highly credentialed. Since the universe of bank traders is made up of highly credentialed people, the distribution of success and failure will be among a lot of smart people. And we know that trading involves more bodily organs than brains, to includes heart, guts and balls.
Imv, this comes down to the degree and depth of understanding each trader has. Where the understanding is logical, objective and quantified with clear and consistent metrics that's backed with empirical evidence of significant sample size, then the trust element is high with the trader operating in known and familiar condition vv.
Know what you trade
  • #778
  • Feb 27, 2021 9:39pm Feb 27, 2021 9:39pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I have asked this question repeatedly, "where does the edge come from" for a retail trader? This is the most important question that must be properly answered by any trader if he wish to be successful. Inversely, it can be expected that every successful trader has a unwavering, confident, objective and clear answer to this question. GEfx, as usual to be expected from you, you have given the answer in that bolded statement. We must understand that we are not participants in this interbank market. Retail traders are mere observers of this...
"Retail traders are mere observers of this market with no impact or responsibility in this market"

Shame on you guys for believing this bullshit, we do move the market and provide a lot of liquidity to the markets.
Just read the bloody tape and see when the its primary retail traders for just short periods are the ones moving price.
Major players trade mostly within a narrow price channel because this is where most current liquidity on the chart sits. Their expenditure of pushing price too far away from the mean average costs them far too much.
The facts appear to show that the major players place about 10-15 massive orders in a day. The time to trade is therefore just after the orders has exhausted the current passive limit orders.

THAT IS OUR TIME - RETAIL TRADERS CAN INFLUENCE THE MARKETS
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #779
  • Feb 27, 2021 9:47pm Feb 27, 2021 9:47pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} "Retail traders are mere observers of this market with no impact or responsibility in this market" Shame on you guys for believing this bullshit, we do move the market and provide a lot of liquidity to the markets.
Quoting RickM
THAT IS OUR TIME - RETAIL TRADERS CAN INFLUENCE THE MARKETS
On the flip side to your statement, we're suppose to believe that retail traders 0.01lot transaction placed with their retail broker do move the interbank fx market.

Again you use strong word that show your emotional attachment to the discussion.
Since these emotions are not expected to go away anytime soon I take a back seat to read what transpire beyond this point. Have a great and fun weekend. Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #780
  • Edited 10:31pm Feb 27, 2021 9:52pm | Edited 10:31pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} On the flip side to your statement, we're suppose to believe that retail traders 0.01lot transaction placed with their retail broker do move the interbank market. Again you use strong word that show your emotional attachment to the discussion.
When you see small orders moving the market after price has hit exhaustion, when you see small orders move price 5 minutes out from New York close, when you see small orders move price in the dead zone between London & New York open

You start to doubt the deep liquidity story that only large players can move price.

But of course I am not talking about a 0.01 lot size trade, I am talking about a small group of retail traders acting together

hint hint
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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