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  • #127,501
  • Feb 25, 2021 1:27pm Feb 25, 2021 1:27pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Next we will watch 1.2155/60 support zone based on H1.. Bears maybe won this street fight but nothing serious yet.. Asian session could be a slow session where candles will just boringly hover above 1.2155 area.. Time will tell..

Thanks for your great analysis about 1.2155 - 1.2160 Support Zone.
Wait for time with patience.
  • #127,502
  • Feb 25, 2021 1:31pm Feb 25, 2021 1:31pm
Keep an eye on the dollar folks, this is pretty huge for fundamentals. Treasury yields exploded today.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tr...ing-7y-auction
  • #127,503
  • Feb 25, 2021 1:40pm Feb 25, 2021 1:40pm
Quoting mysterio
Keep an eye on the dollar folks, this is pretty huge for fundamentals. Treasury yields exploded today. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tr...ing-7y-auction
Care to explain to us in plain and simple words
Biggest Mistake ? Over Leverage
  • #127,504
  • Edited 2:46pm Feb 25, 2021 2:09pm | Edited 2:46pm
Hey, yea. In a nutshell, the US govt tried to auction debt instruments today and it went badly, there was very little demand. Normally there is a high demand for US treasuries. This is important because there has been a sell off going on for a few weeks in these instruments- investors are dumping them for various reasons, maybe concerns about inflation, skyrocketing deficits, central bank money creation etc.

This is important because the price of these bonds determines the interest rate (yield), i.e. lower price = higher yields, because the coupon (the fixed periodic interest the bond pays) is higher relative to the price.

Why do we care? The relative interest rate is the main determinant of the level of the currency. Higher interest rate relative to another = more demand for that currency. This isn't just an academic/theoretical point, it is arguably the main thing which creates the long term supply/demand dynamic of currencies.

Today, presumably because of this, we've seen a big risk off/equity sell off, and the dollar has spiked considerably.

So from a fundamental perspective we have to consider if this will be sustained - this speaks to huge structural problems related to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which states that governments can't run out of money because they can get the central bank can just print money. It looks like the market has had enough, we'll see if this spirals out of control. Big events in fixed income markets can start a chain reaction of market events- the sell of in government bonds is fairly extreme at the moment. Market volatility has skyrocketed today as well.

Hard to say, but if you're bullish on the Euro then you may want to reconsider, Euro is considered a 'risk on' currency, whilst dollar is the safe haven (this is arguable though). Just something to think about- I'm not saying start selling EURUSD.
  • #127,505
  • Feb 25, 2021 2:26pm Feb 25, 2021 2:26pm
Quoting mysterio
Hey, yea. In a nutshell, the US govt tried to auction debt instruments today and it went badly, there was very little demand. Normally there is a high demand for US treasuries. This is important because there has been a sell off going on for a few weeks in these instruments- investors are dumping them for various reasons, maybe concerns about inflation, skyrocketing deficits, central bank money creation etc. This is important because the price of these bonds determines the interest rate (yield), i.e. lower price = higher yields, because the coupon...
Thanks alot my friend for explaining it so clearly.
But my logic seem broken, if nobody wants US dollar, the price should become weaker againts other currency.
I really don't understand the logic.
Biggest Mistake ? Over Leverage
  • #127,506
  • Feb 25, 2021 2:35pm Feb 25, 2021 2:35pm
Quoting sing2x
{quote} Thanks alot my friend for explaining it so clearly. But my logic seem broken, if nobody wants US dollar, the price should become weaker againts other currency. I really don't understand the logic.
Yeah- it is kind of weird and backwards. Its because less people want US government debt, and because of that you get a higher yield it which attracts people in/creates more demand.

Also, this has spooked the market quite a bit, so people are coming out of equities and into cash- and because US is the biggest stock market that means dollar demand.
  • #127,507
  • Feb 25, 2021 2:51pm Feb 25, 2021 2:51pm
Quoting mysterio
Hey, yea. In a nutshell, the US govt tried to auction debt instruments today and it went badly, there was very little demand. Normally there is a high demand for US treasuries. This is important because there has been a sell off going on for a few weeks in these instruments- investors are dumping them for various reasons, maybe concerns about inflation, skyrocketing deficits, central bank money creation etc. This is important because the price of these bonds determines the interest rate (yield), i.e. lower price = higher yields, because the coupon...
Don't trip, the Fed will just go back to buying its own bonds like in the past. QE ROUND 4 LETS GOOO. No way they gonna let interest rates sky rocket
  • #127,508
  • Feb 25, 2021 4:57pm Feb 25, 2021 4:57pm
Quoting yusuf666
{quote} Don't trip, the Fed will just go back to buying its own bonds like in the past. QE ROUND 4 LETS GOOO. No way they gonna let interest rates sky rocket
Exactly! That's what happened with QE1 et. al.,

China is currently on the outs with the USA and it's cut back on buying US bonds. Other of the BRIC countries can do the same. Without the FED to step in and purchase the bonds the yields have to rise to attract buyers.

While I appreciate your concern and your great explanation mysterio I am of the belief that the dollar slide continues and the market returns to a risk on mode next week.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #127,509
  • Edited 7:14pm Feb 25, 2021 6:23pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting Austyno
I have a buy limit @ 1.21388 Sl @ 50 pips Tp @ 1.22162 Godspeed bulls
Active
Tp adjusted to 1.22102. Sl moved to be

I also have a sell limit @ 1.22102
Tp @ 1.21235
Sl 50 pips.


Keep in mind that bears have upper hand today because we just took out the lows of yesterday and we have a gravestone doji with a supply on daily
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #127,510
  • Feb 25, 2021 7:17pm Feb 25, 2021 7:17pm
Quoting Austyno
{quote} Active Tp adjusted to 1.22102. Sl moved to be I also have a sell limit @ 1.22102 Tp @ 1.21235 Sl 50 pips. Keep in mind that bears have upper hand today because we just took out the lows of yesterday and we have a gravestone doji with a supply on daily
If the sl at be is taken out, then the next buy is at 1.21235 targeting 1.22102
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #127,512
  • Feb 25, 2021 10:48pm Feb 25, 2021 10:48pm
Take it from the confidentist
  • #127,513
  • Feb 25, 2021 10:52pm Feb 25, 2021 10:52pm
EUR/USD turning point on 1H chart which will occur on 2021.02.26
EST in 15 min time frame included
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1_2021.02.26.PNG Size: 34 KB
  • #127,514
  • Feb 25, 2021 10:53pm Feb 25, 2021 10:53pm
Quoting lucky1359
@ 1.2245 - 1.2250 Fire at Will for downside quick scalp for 20 pips
I think Yesterday they listened to me and went down 100 pips LOL
  • #127,515
  • Feb 25, 2021 11:58pm Feb 25, 2021 11:58pm
Watching Feb's low, pair wants a 1.19xx print.

Buyers coming in at that level.
  • #127,516
  • Feb 26, 2021 12:24am Feb 26, 2021 12:24am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Next we will watch 1.2155/60 support zone based on H1.. Bears maybe won this street fight but nothing serious yet.. Asian session could be a slow session where candles will just boringly hover above 1.2155 area.. Time will tell..
pretty exact to far
Another day, another dollar.
  • #127,517
  • Feb 26, 2021 1:15am Feb 26, 2021 1:15am
Quoting 10cents
Watching Feb's low, pair wants a 1.19xx print. Buyers coming in at that level.
If it goes below 1.2100 i would close my shorts at 1.2020
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #127,518
  • Feb 26, 2021 1:26am Feb 26, 2021 1:26am
H&S pattern form on H1 TF , but this 1.21360 support so stubborn
Rising and falling like waves in the ocean
  • #127,519
  • Feb 26, 2021 1:27am Feb 26, 2021 1:27am
I am very thankful for the forex factory as well as the money life research platform where I get the best trading signals recommendations with the latest updated technical and fundamental charts of EURUSD.
  • #127,520
  • Feb 26, 2021 1:37am Feb 26, 2021 1:37am
it seems a bear trap... I stay out

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