EURUSD only

Time for shorting here.

H1 Status Update

Big street fight around red bearish trend line: 1.2233 area.. 1.22235 is nearest aggressive buy level on H1..

Final analysis and guess of what's gonna happen: So 1.22215 held as support to the pip (this is a 1 min chart, those wicks are less than the spread basically) and price rose back up to retest the M pattern which dropped hard.. Why? Because smart market manipulators who shorted there don't want price to go above where they entered and protected it. That level of support I estimated was the last of buying power I believe, which now just broke on the 1 min (but that means nothing to me. I need the 15 min candle to close below and I expect it to happen in the last few minutes). Who knows, I can still be wrong

~

I feel like sharing an important piece of information on why the market moves up/down because I've really enjoyed this community. If you already know, then it's not that interesting but here goes:

Why does price move up and down? Say you enter short. What drives the price down after you enter short? If you think it's retail traders entering after you at worse positions that's totally incorrect (it's somewhat true be, but that doesn't force move the market).

Answer: It's big money forcing the market down with market orders once they establish a position. You may notice markets go up and down here and there, but then all of a sudden you see price start consistently forcing itself one way almost with no pullback. It can be 20-30 pips or even 100 pips. It can happen up , then suddenly down. Why? Because Smart money has a lot of money, and they can bid the market up and down at will!

Many people here place entry orders at let's say a support line which may or may not work. The reason it works often and bounces quickly is because there is strong liquidity at that point (many entry orders from people all over the world at that exact area). If a whale simply buys at market price, the market shoots up. That's no fun is it? So how does a whale get the entry order at a great price without having to buy at market price/inflating the market and their average price?

They simply bid the market down once the entry orders are gone. Who else is buying at that point after you bought? Well clearly not you.

By forcing the market price down and triggering stop losses, that creates immediate liquidity of selling orders (stopped longs = sells), and they simply buy all those sells and keep the market at the same price. I believe that's EXACTLY what happened in my illustration.

I initially thought this was a bull flag, but when I noticed price didn't explode upwards I knew this was the stop hunt.

With that in mind, I'm sure my illustration makes perfect sense. I type this for my sake too: ONLY ENTER THE MARKET ONCE YOU KNOW THE WHALE IS ON YOUR SIDE, don't ejaculate prematurely

TLDR: Once you enter a trade, whether you win or not is 100% dependent on the people who bid the market up and down AFTER you (which are often institutions). With that in mind, when you enter a trade, simply ask yourself "Is smart money on my side and are there any signs of it?" Because if not, you are about to get stopped

Key note: There is more than just 1 whale, but they come in different sizes. With enough experience, you can tell 1 whale apart from another. The bigger whale (bigger pocket) ends up winning more often than not.

I think you can make much more money by writing compared to trading..

It only takes few buyers to screw, to get market going down. Come on people start selling

hahaha, I lose on my trades because I break my own rules. Everything is easier said than done

This is what usually happens when I start looking for whales....
But in all seriousness - because I understand what you're saying - how do YOU identify where the "whales" are waiting can you elaborate?

Lol... I was imagining: Market slows down.. Kyuu bends head down to start writing an essay.. Market goes crazy trendy.. Kyuu lifts head.. market slows down.. Kyuu bends head down to keep writing.. Market goes crazy.. Kyuu lifts head.. Market stops.. Endless loop.. Just kidding buddy..

Moty I guess it will go up again

because it has become stall above 1.4100

Yeah pretty much I will overtrade and lose with temptation if I don't occupy myself with other stuff like writing essays or other things. It keeps me sane

CAN I PLEASE GET ONE 15 MIN CANDLE CLOSE BELOW THIS LINE!! After like 6-8 candles of 15 min candles failing to go below, I can be wrong here as this is signs of whales accumulating as well. I won't post until I get stopped or a 15 min candle closes Goodluck all

This is quite uncertain. I had the long fully hedged for a while. Now partially hedged...

Edit What's for sure is that they killed the momentum (a couple of hours ago). I will hold on to my longs. Any down will be a deeper retr. only.

I guess this is what you are looking for at 1.2119?

So as the London session closes I feel that EU is at a crossroads for the day/week.

I want to short (I've got a small one on) for a fall to 1.2150 level but I can make a case for long on a break above 1.2240....
So it's time to just pack it up and walk away for lunch....

due to descending trendline, 100% extension fibo, diamond/h&S (5min) on creation I sell at 1.2236
SL: 1.2255
TP: 1.2184

Next 30 minutes is a big tell for what the market wants to do (4 hour closes), a 4h close above 1.22215 will make me very uncomfortable. I need extreme bearish action in the next 30 minutes or price I believe will go higher before the real drop happens (probably at London session tomorrow)

THERE IS A GOD <3 I'll be holdin this short for a while.

SL at BE.
Let's see...

You definitely got what you hoped for, good call!