Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2834 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #56,661
  • Feb 23, 2021 8:24am Feb 23, 2021 8:24am
what a difficult day trading only cable...

hopefully a breeze will come up with the stockmarket open.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,662
  • Feb 23, 2021 8:36am Feb 23, 2021 8:36am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks Fagin, well it helps a bit. I actually ask my self the same. I am willing to learn. Did you ask Billy the same question? Why bothering with hedging the fails instead of just taking the Sl at the opposite end of the 08-15 range, consider it as a fail and move on? For me the real issue seems to be that like you say i donīt want to make a dozens of more trades per day, first because of limited time + to keep things very simple until i see some consistent long term profitable results. Another reason is that i donīt want to feel needed...
If you haven't already you maybe should take a look at risk of ruin % and work that out as straight trades using whatever you are using as a trigger. I guess the 0815 range. This gives you your worst case (but still highly probable) outcome.

I'd then look at another setup to trade alongside or during the same day and do the same for that. I'd tweak the second set up for a slightly greater RR foregoing a higher probability to allow more flexibility to re-enter the opposite side if it fails. I don't trade the Billy Bar much to be fair and I hang out here mainly trading my own stuff because I like the company. So I'm not the best person to help with that however having took the time to read through this massive thread there are hundreds of nuggets and hints as I'm sure you've already uncovered.

I'd love to find out how to live on 5 pips a day but I'm no millionaire so I rob the bank when and where I can!
  • #56,663
  • Feb 23, 2021 8:52am Feb 23, 2021 8:52am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks Fagin, well it helps a bit. I actually ask my self the same. I am willing to learn. Did you ask Billy the same question? Why bothering with hedging the fails instead of just taking the Sl at the opposite end of the 08-15 range, consider it as a fail and move on? For me the real issue seems to be that like you say i donīt want to make a dozens of more trades per day, first because of limited time + to keep things very simple until i see some consistent long term profitable results. Another reason is that i donīt want to feel needed...
Hi iddd, if it helps explaining how hedging can work, and sometimes even end up green on both sides (hence why these guys do it here - miles better than me i might add!)

M5 GU
1. Long entry trigger, looking for +5 (fails at yesterday's hi - yes, not the greatest place to be jumping in but a line is a line)
2. 5 pip hedge entry goes in
Then follow it down and look for your next level or area of interest - this happens to be the daily open for me. You can see to the left it bounced nicely off it and hasnt got below it since. As it starts moving up again, you drop the short for about 12ish pips in the banks, but obviously ur running -17ish from the long. You could potentially add a long down here with a tight stop below the Open, if you want to try and claw it back quicker. Otherwise just leave the long, and keep bumping a stop up so u dont risk losing anymore. In this example it pops up right through and gets ur original 5pips u were looking for - both trades closed in the green

Now obviosuly all the sceanrios wont always work like that, and some steps will fail (like ur stop getting tagged etc) - but just wanted to try and show an example of how to fix a trade (that works for me anyway)
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  • #56,664
  • Feb 23, 2021 9:06am Feb 23, 2021 9:06am
Quoting birdland
what a difficult day trading only cable... hopefully a breeze will come up with the stockmarket open.
definitely hard.

The market makers do not know what is happening. That could be a concern.
My main trade was good and chasing the daily range was more difficult. we got some though.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,665
  • Feb 23, 2021 9:11am Feb 23, 2021 9:11am
Quoting billytt
{quote} definitely hard. The market makers do not know what is happening. That could be a concern. My main trade was good and chasing the daily range was more difficult. we got some though.
yes another grind for me today, last trade in and I'm out green if she reaches 1.4092
  • #56,666
  • Feb 23, 2021 9:18am Feb 23, 2021 9:18am
psssssssst Don't tell Mr T, i have been playing with his 1 minute bar break dax. lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,667
  • Feb 23, 2021 9:35am Feb 23, 2021 9:35am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} yes another grind for me today, last trade in and I'm out green if she reaches 1.4092
made it in style. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,668
  • Feb 23, 2021 9:44am Feb 23, 2021 9:44am
Quoting billytt
{quote} made it in style. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
Ha! I might just start getting up later and trade NY! Funny though... this trade put me right back to where I was at 805 this morning, duh!
  • #56,669
  • Feb 23, 2021 5:25pm Feb 23, 2021 5:25pm
Quoting Jp1
Otherwise just leave the long, and keep bumping a stop up so u dont risk losing anymore. In this example it pops up right through and gets ur original 5pips u were looking for - both trades closed in the green
Hello,

First, thanks a lot for your help.

The way you describe it would already make a bit more sense to me personally. Here you would minimize the risk of letting the negative side of the hedge becoming unpredictable huge in size which could easily happen if you hold to it for days, weeks, months, who knows. Further you would minimize the risk of enormous spread widening by trying to get out of the hedge as soon as possible. So more like within the next minutes, hours or most by the end of the day where liquidity is still given and no unclear overnight risk of something horrific happens while you sleep.

I remember Billy mentioned something like that where he said to me that he normally gets out of the locked-in situation the say day, so maybe thats why.

However, that is somehow contradicting with the clues some other nice people here gave to me regarding the hedging. They said, that i don't want to let go one side of the hedge without having the right new valid trigger for it. Depending on what direction the negative side floats, that could take a while to develop. Because i don't have any other setups/triggers/methods (you name it) happening later the day after the BillyBar is over, that is already a problem on its own for me.

Reason for having the next trigger before letting it go asap, also makes sense to me. You then in best case have another high probability trigger with a positive expectancy to come out at a win instead of just trying to get out of it by what you "think" might be happening next. By reading the chart then actually this is what you would do then. And if this would be profitable some could argue why not directly trading what you see, why waiting for any trigger at all then.

So maybe i was too naive until here to think +5 and one method you can make a living of.

Coming back to your example given. The moment you would have closed the short and realized the 12 positive pips. You say that you then would move up the SL which i agree, yes makes sense.

But there is another thing. As soon as you are left alone with that one negative position you also have to know about a stop loss or a new counter order BEFORE letting it go? Where would that be? On a volatile pair like GBP/USD a drop up or down for 10 Pips during UK trading times can happen in just a second.

It you let go that one side and the negative side spikes down in a blink for another X amount of pips and you have no SL or further counter order you really wouldn't have won anything much with the hedge instead of a failed trade that has even become bigger in size. So i think its important to have a stop for the negative side before you book in the positive side.

cheers and regards!
  • #56,670
  • Feb 24, 2021 1:26am Feb 24, 2021 1:26am
Cable, we have had movement.
i might give today a miss OR play with Dax.

08-00 break will probably still be on. Lets see.
t 07-26
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,671
  • Feb 24, 2021 2:19am Feb 24, 2021 2:19am
Cable, 08-00 15 min bar break.
Low broke for +5%.

pssssst , i also took 10 off Dax , 1 minute bar . All due to Mr T, Ta.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,672
  • Feb 24, 2021 2:46am Feb 24, 2021 2:46am
Quoting billytt
Cable, 08-00 15 min bar break. Low broke for +5%. pssssst , i also took 10 off Dax , 1 minute bar . All due to Mr T, Ta.
You're welcome. Not too bad so far for nibbles.
EDIT: Is price stalling at 13910 -watching carefully here maybe?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #56,673
  • Feb 24, 2021 3:16am Feb 24, 2021 3:16am
Good old dax.
And now: - ART BREAK
spotted in a wooded glade in Hampshire
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #56,674
  • Feb 24, 2021 3:32am Feb 24, 2021 3:32am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} You're welcome. Not too bad so far for nibbles. EDIT: Is price stalling at 13910 -watching carefully here maybe? {image}

Hi Mr T, i am not sure where dax is going, either up or down.
If i scalp ,i scalp without actually looking. If you know what i mean.
I also use a stop when i scalp.
i am only scalping today as cable is acting odd? lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,675
  • Feb 24, 2021 3:34am Feb 24, 2021 3:34am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Mr T, i am not sure where dax is going, either up or down. If i scalp ,i scalp without actually looking. If you know what i mean. I also use a stop when i scalp. i am only scalping today as cable is acting odd? lol
More scalping and I definitely use a stop Billy.

EDIT; 0935 - I think I will quit for the morning and keep what I have got and see what NY open brings. Back later.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #56,676
  • Feb 24, 2021 4:26am Feb 24, 2021 4:26am
Took a cheeky short at the green line (pivot), but got stopped out for 0 (again due to butterfingers)
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  • #56,677
  • Feb 24, 2021 4:37am Feb 24, 2021 4:37am
because i have no orientation with cable i wont trade today;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #56,678
  • Feb 24, 2021 5:14am Feb 24, 2021 5:14am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} More scalping and I definitely use a stop Billy. EDIT; 0935 - I think I will quit for the morning and keep what I have got and see what NY open brings. Back later. {image}
Left screen earlier to do my Spanish lesson via "Zoom"

Just looked at Dax and saw a little gain I missed out on. But to be fair I usually stop at ten because I tire easily.
I feel better now. back to part 2 of Spanish via Zoom
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #56,679
  • Feb 24, 2021 5:20am Feb 24, 2021 5:20am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Left screen earlier to do my Spanish lesson via "Zoom" Just looked at Dax and saw a little gain I missed out on. But to be fair I usually stop at ten because I tire easily. I feel better now. back to part 2 of Spanish via Zoom {image}
So what would a female gnome be called ? A gnomess ?
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  • #56,680
  • Feb 24, 2021 5:28am Feb 24, 2021 5:28am
[quote=claudia1;13424998]{quote} So what would a female gnome be called ? A gnomess ?[/quo

gnomo femenino ?
Pero el gnomo macho vive en un bosque en Hampshire?

I am a beginning Spanish student so please forgive any translation howlers.
My elderly sister ( hates being reminded she is older than me) learnt German when at grammar school. I thought German was tougher to learn in comparison with Spanish?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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