EURUSD only

I had a very decent trade week. Wishing you all a happy weekend !

Next week will bring more pips

Happy for you but... If you gained the 45% in only one week something is wrong with your money management... be careful friend and have a nice weekend!

Based on M15 I am watching if candles can close below 1.2121 or not.. If yes I stop buying dips.. Otherwise stay long!

Why do you say that? what could be wrong with my money management? I am confused.... please advice.

Over the course of the day here is how my aggressive entries on M15 look like.. and max. draw down amounts I face on average based only on aggressive entries on this time frame.. The name of the game for me is: rinse & repeat!

*1.21285 is my current aggressive entry level.. I am not buying every B level.. The B's are only any of the many locations where one could enter long.. If you want to enter all be my guest..

Hourly close below 2125 warrants more downside. It Friday and not much unless...... Who knows these days

I am guessing he repeats what books say, which is: you shouldn't risk more than 1% of your equity for total open orders.. That's the general belief.. I don't mind it.. But I also disagree with his idea that you are over-leveraging.. To me anything between 1% to 7% is acceptable if the trader knows what he/she is doing and also if he/she can psychologically manage unexpected draw downs.. Yours is roughly 5%.. According to my experience all good

thanks brov me, i am fuly loaded until 1.19500

Today is the first time I opened my laptop. The key level of falling prices


its nice but i think to early for short

Drop from here will see a test of 2050-2060 as first support. Possible consolidation at that level for another move to test 12000 or thereabout to complete the correction. May even see some quick sub 12000 prints.

Not ruling out possible retest of 2140-2150, any breakout at that level likely to be sold back down.

If 90 can not be cracked by the usd index and above 91 is too much then we have the eurusd range between 1.20 and 1.2150.
Next week month end coming, anybody idea what that could give ?
Usa traders now alone send the eurusd lower. Will this happen towards month end also ?
More than 20 pips lower than the price europe left it at my 1800 hrs gmt+1.
That is a lot this difference.
1.2092 was the price yesterday at wall street stock market close.

Hi,
thanks a lot, this is very useful...

Happy weekend
Chriss

no much power, hard to go higher.... i can add more short until 1.22

Based on some usa tv channel news I am sensing that vaccinations are creating a positive effect on expectations.. Some anchormen were even blabbering that things can get back to normal much quicker than planned.. Well.. personally I can't be that naive to directly believe this but just by taking main-stream manipulated USA stimulus into account I could say that these speculations might give USD Index a temporary boost in coming weeks.. All I am saying is: Don't ditch USD strength so easily.. that dragon can wake up fast and drag the euro down quick.. Just beware of not getting too much trapped in the idea that USD is becoming trash.. that's not so easy!

But also keep in mind that the stimulus package unleashes $1.6 trn which the Treasury had parked at its FED account for months. Meaning two things (1) USD liquidity will be massive which should weigh on the USD as a share of the billions will be exchanged to invest abroad and (2) the stimulus will drag the US current account even lower as it increases imports which implies foreigners get even more USD proceeds they have to invest. With such a heavy debt burden Treasuries are not so attractive any more so either Treasuries or the USD have to fall, or even both. And while Treasuries are supported by the FED the USD floats freely. Hence it could collapse despite a roaring economy. So it is not merely a play of who has the stronger economy.

EURUSD: Ongoing expanding triangle in the 1/4 Charts:
I would be cautious.
Bullish Bias.

On Monday I expect a bit of retracement (down) from here then a strong bullish week, will look for PA confirmation to go long at either 1.2098, 1.2084, 1.2070. Going to try not to fiddle with it too much and just let it do its thing, expecting 1.22 pretty soon. Could be wrong it's just what I see. DXY will bounce a little then resume its long term downtrend I reckon.

Hello khanny good job all the time

Weekly Analysis (of my trading) Week 7, 2021

Monday. Very slow day. Made the best of it. +1.1%
Tuesday. Was long early in the day and got caught on the wrong side of sustained down move (no retr). At first I increase position size, my standard protocol. Halfway through I hesitantly partially hedged but then removed it too early. This is also typical of me. I hate the idea of getting screwed both sides, so I never commit to a full reversal of my position mid way a swing. Also, even when I realized the up was over I assumed it would have been a down in three waves. Kept some low longs, small size. -28% on equity.
Wednesday. Started with my low longs quickly going underwater as price headed south again. And again only partially hedged. Kept net long throughout the drop trying my usual BLaSHing and SHaBLing, but, of course, not enough retrs. for that to work with standard parameters. Later in the day deepening loss of focus and emotional control. Some silly ops. Closed the session with -30%
Thursday. Wednesday NY session I got one of my rare signals warranting a heavy position with tight stop. Heavy long. Size varying between 30-60% of account as I managed small ups and downs making money and keeping average position price low. Price takes off, gradually close my position using shorts in expectation of a down reversal. In retrospect, I ignored the signs of up strength I did notice consciously.
I had the idea of making a certain amount of money and a given exit level and I did just that and got exactly what I expected. I got out as planned rather than as the price action warranted. At least I had the good sense to abandon my short reversal idea and went flat. Later in the day I was unable to reestablish a long position as I chickened out, even though my analysis was right.
Account +67% for the day.
Friday. Waked up early, 6 AM CET, or late Asia session. Took a look at the chart and was able to quickly deduce the strength. Posted this.
Price never retraced before taking off. As I feared I would, I tried to get in on the up action mid way through (FOMO) Getting on board a high momentum move is something I am not good at. My BLaSHing and SHaBLing mindset is not suited for that. The retrs. are really just pauses and I can never quite get in. Furthermore, once the top was reached, I initially was still in longing mode. Later abandoned it but missed the opportunity of going short.-7% on equity.

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A pattern emerges. If there were no sustained moves I could easily make 12+% per week. The no retrs. moves destroy my standard practice. Which, of course, is entirely by design, otherwise everybody would rather quickly catch on and there would be no losers, which can't be, for the game to exist.
So, I have to better manage the sustained one direction moves. A daily hard stop at, say, -15% on equity would have contained the heavy losing days, while allowing the profitable ones. Given that there's no one to enforce that rule on me, I need to convince myself... which I am not. As a compromise I will institute a fully hedge and walk away for two hours policy. This should work even better because late in a sustained move London session, there's some up and down action that I can exploit, if I am not psychologically exhausted.

Despite everything I did notice improvement in my emotional management. My emotional distress fuck ups were rather contained by my standards. I lost by sticking to my methods too long in days not suited for it, but only small losses were attributable to insane ops and had no revenge fantasies. Wednesday night my account was at -50%. I was disappointed but not angry or devastated. The +67% Thursday was the result of a proper signal managed close to perfect through many hours, despite the sleep deprivation. I did that immediately after the -50% in two days because I quickly recovered balance. I was pleased for the handling of the position. Not overenthusiastic. No celebrations.

They did experiments with aircraft pilots in landing simulations. Sometimes the researchers would put a truck right in the middle of the runway. A staggering amount of times the pilots would not notice it and land the plane into it. Expectations drive the experience of reality and dictate actions to a surprisingly high degree. Thursday I wanted to make 67% and made it disregarding all evidence there was more on the table. Friday I set myself for longing on a retr. and it didn't even cross my mind to put on a small long right there and then, which I could have easily managed even if I had been wrong, I anticipated a limited upside and then FOMOed when it kept up. The realization of upside exhaustion came too late and weak to go short, but at least strong enough to avoid getting stuck on the long side. Bottom line: let go of expectations more easily (no holding on to). Mental gymnastics. Thursday I was agile enough to abandon the reverse short idea, not enough to keep the long. Friday, agile enough to abandon the long idea at the top, not enough to go short even though I had reasons for it. Got to keep my mind more limber



Someone, reading this might wonder why not sticking to only the strong signals that can produce large wins. Tried that. Doesn't work. Can't stay 12 hours a day focused for half a dozen ops a month with a window of opportunity lasting a few seconds, two minutes tops. I end up taking illegitimate signals, get emotionally upset, neglect stops... So I need the BLaSHing and SHaBLing busy work. It keeps me focused and makes 12-14% per week (most weeks). A 12-14% per week baseline, an occasional >67% win and two or three -15% limited hits, is something that can still work; this week would have been a +13%,

Weekly results: 12.5%, 14.8%, 2.6%, 12.6%
This Week result: -21%

The 5 weeks average is +4.3%.

On a side note, much less activity on this thread this Saturday than last week at the same time. Seems a reasonable assumption, the high volatility sustained moves of this week must have hurt or have not been exploited by many retails.

Daily S/R Levels for Monday

1. Hunger games of bulls still in tact.. Breaking 1.21445 area is their first and foremost task,
2. Bears are probably only watching how bulls will end up with this.. 1.2085 is their pivot-ish support,
3. We have an inverted H&S pattern and a potential Cypher currently supporting the bullish side, but we must notice that this whole move is just noise inside a big sideways triangle.. Without a major breakout from it we can't confirm what's next.. That's why 1.21445 resistance area is highly important!
4. Overall: Since daily chart is currently bull-ish/flat-ish, charts of smaller time frames could tell better..

I hope it helps.. Enjoy your weekends folks.. Cheers