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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #8,341
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:15am Feb 12, 2021 9:15am
Note also current very elongated A period... I don't know as sometimes things happen, but take note of 38345 highest pit unch of the year: if it will take out current poor high and yesterday poor high but then you will not see a clear acceptation above 38345, watch out as a liquidation of all this frantic buy can eventually occur.
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  • #8,342
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:17am Feb 12, 2021 9:17am
If instead you will see liquidation before to take out those poor back to back highs (today and yesterday), be almost sure to come back upside again to remove them.
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  • #8,343
  • Feb 15, 2021 1:24am Feb 15, 2021 1:24am
Quoting Lock
If instead you will see liquidation before to take out those poor back to back highs (today and yesterday), be almost sure to come back upside again to remove them.
Well, it did something more... I wrote many times to be aware of the monthly trend upside...

Anyhow a fast top-down recap

We are in a monthly well established trend upside, in a weekly newly born trend upside and in an attempted break from daily cluster in the upside direction.

If GB will open above Friday GB high 37105 we will have a triple GB gap from that level to 3716: take note of it.
Anyhow we are far above Friday GB high 37105 so it is hard to imagine a complete filling of the new possible GB gap upside in order to take away that triple GB gap 37105-3716. But still possible: so include it in the possibilities even if pretty remote.

In any case current 2021 absolute high at 39025 is almost impossible as it is a weak and poor yearly and monthly overnight high. I think that a liquidation can always occur but without removing that high it should be treated as such, an inventory liquidation. If current high removed, in case of liquidation we can see something more.

Consider anyhow the major trend upside in all your decisions.

Major levels in order to understand the upcoming action are GB weekly close 38535 and Pit weekly unch 38525 (they are very close one each other and they are absolute highest 2021 close levels for their respective sessions) and this means that they are crucial and that you should monitor for acceptation or rejection above and below them.

Final notes:
I do not like Sydney weekly open at 3831. It's too frantic and it's overnight. So take note of it even if you'll see continuation upside.
For upcoming Pit session consider that we currently are inside an old 2018 Pit gap downside from 3866 to 3904: take note of this at pit open
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  • #8,344
  • Feb 15, 2021 5:52am Feb 15, 2021 5:52am
Current H period is inside G period that is inside F period that is inside E period range: full balance and balance rules clearly apply. Current period H or last 2 GB periods can lead to a break out above or below balance range. Note that currently we got both a poor low and a poor high for GB session.
Balance rules: go with the break if any and monitor for continuation. If it fails in one direction odds are in favor to reach opposite side of balance and possibly continue in that direction. If it succeed in the first direction stay in the position and place your stops inside the balance range
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  • #8,345
  • Feb 15, 2021 6:00am Feb 15, 2021 6:00am
Quoting Lock
Current H period is inside G period that is inside F period that is inside E period range: full balance and balance rules clearly apply. Current period H or last 2 GB periods can lead to a break out above or below balance range. Note that currently we got both a poor low and a poor high for GB session. Balance rules: go with the break if any and monitor for continuation. If it fails in one direction odds are in favor to reach opposite side of balance and possibly continue in that direction. If it succeed in the first direction stay in the position...
lock any movement today does not matter much since its low liquidity driven and there are no orders from NY. 3920 will cause a squeeze to the upside triggering some sell stops. at the same time 3800 and below will force longs to sell. we are stuck in this 120 pip range for time being. wonder who blinks first
  • #8,346
  • Feb 15, 2021 6:14am Feb 15, 2021 6:14am
Now, considering the very tiny range of current GB session I suggest to consider this range as the balance from which eventually the break can occur.
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  • #8,347
  • Feb 15, 2021 6:16am Feb 15, 2021 6:16am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} lock any movement today does not matter much since its low liquidity driven and there are no orders from NY. 3920 will cause a squeeze to the upside triggering some sell stops. at the same time 3800 and below will force longs to sell. we are stuck in this 120 pip range for time being. wonder who blinks first
There are no orders from NY (and there will not be for today) but we got no orders from China too.... Clearly we will se some shake out after.
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  • #8,348
  • Feb 15, 2021 6:20am Feb 15, 2021 6:20am
Quoting Lock
{quote} There are no orders from NY (and there will not be for today) but we got no orders from China too.... Clearly we will se some shake out after.
And that's probably the reason we saw Sydney so impulsive at open. They knew they will not have China nor US against in a monthly established trend upside.
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  • #8,349
  • Feb 15, 2021 6:21am Feb 15, 2021 6:21am
Quoting Lock
{quote} There are no orders from NY (and there will not be for today) but we got no orders from China too.... Clearly we will se some shake out after.
today is an excellent day for a central bank which is working to take the markets to the side they want. I wonder how many do that but it used to happen in 2013-2015. on US holidays or europe holidays 100-200 pip movements

Quoting Lock
{quote} And that's probably the reason we saw Sydney so impulsive at open. They knew they will not have China nor US against in a monthly established trend upside.
are u sure the trend is on the upside?? they have to keep the pound low for some time specially after brexit now
  • #8,350
  • Feb 16, 2021 5:32am Feb 16, 2021 5:32am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} today is an excellent day for a central bank which is working to take the markets to the side they want. I wonder how many do that but it used to happen in 2013-2015. on US holidays or europe holidays 100-200 pip movements {quote} are u sure the trend is on the upside?? they have to keep the pound low for some time specially after brexit now
The monthly trend is up as in the last 5 months we never saw a monthly low taken out. So this is a simple technical fact.
As it is a fact that we are also in a new born weekly trend upside (last three weeks) after some balance.

An other thing is my judgment about their strength (especially regarding the weekly one): it is clearly very very weak. In any case generally markets do not make V shaped reversal. Generally they go from balance to trend then to balance again: from balance they can continue in the same direction or revert. Obviously there are some exceptions. And things can always happen: especially when a market go too high or too low, without fundamentals support. But this is the normality.

About macro analysis I'll not say a single word as it is not my field. Also I'm a short timeframe trader.

About bank holiday, yes: it is clearly an opportunity to go against weak little traders and furthermore yesterday GB session and Pit session have both poor lows. So a liquidation is absolutely possible. But before to morph this possible liquidation into something more (if it will happen) we should see some form of daily balance, at least.
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  • #8,351
  • Feb 16, 2021 5:36am Feb 16, 2021 5:36am
Anyhow main levels for GB are yesterday GB close 3919 (that it already tested twice always failing) and GB Friday weekly close 38535: acceptation above them and a clear rejection below them can lead GB to spike test again. Acceptation below them (at least yesterday close) can lead to liquidation.

But we are in the last GB periods, so take a look also at US main levels that, again, are yesterday pit unch 3902 and Friday pit unch at 39525
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  • #8,352
  • Feb 16, 2021 5:38am Feb 16, 2021 5:38am
Quoting Lock
{quote} The monthly trend is up as in the last 5 months we never saw a monthly low taken out. So this is a simple technical fact. As it is a fact that we are also in a new born weekly trend upside (last three weeks) after some balance. An other thing is my judgment about their strength (especially regarding the weekly one): it is clearly very very weak. In any case generally markets do not make V shaped reversal. Generally they go from balance to trend then to balance again: from balance they can continue in the same direction or revert. Obviously...
So we have to wait for the liquidity on selling side or it may go up again
  • #8,353
  • Feb 16, 2021 5:40am Feb 16, 2021 5:40am
Note Pit poor low is at 3898 and GB poor low is at 3890: in case of liquidation: but we have to see acceptation below 3919 to see such a liquidation (or a spike test in the last periods)
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  • #8,354
  • Feb 16, 2021 5:41am Feb 16, 2021 5:41am
Quoting Abeeha
{quote} So we have to wait for the liquidity on selling side or it may go up again
Exactly. For instance it can wait for Friday news to seriously liquidate and instead continue this weak progression till there. But it's only a possibility. Take this market a piece at a time.
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  • #8,355
  • Feb 16, 2021 6:22am Feb 16, 2021 6:22am
Quoting Lock
Anyhow main levels for GB are yesterday GB close 3919 (that it already tested twice always failing) and GB Friday weekly close 38535: acceptation above them and a clear rejection below them can lead GB to spike test again. Acceptation below them (at least yesterday close) can lead to liquidation. But we are in the last GB periods, so take a look also at US main levels that, again, are yesterday pit unch 3902 and Friday pit unch at 39525
Good views lock as usual. Gu follows eu so as long as eu is up and now that eurgbp positioning is switched to short its quite evident we have to wait for euro to start selling off. GBP 1.40 is still an issue until 3970 gets taken out
  • #8,356
  • Feb 16, 2021 7:27am Feb 16, 2021 7:27am
Quoting Lock
Note Pit poor low is at 3898 and GB poor low is at 3890: in case of liquidation: but we have to see acceptation below 3919 to see such a liquidation (or a spike test in the last periods)
It eventually liquidated in the last GB period followed by the first preUS one. And here we are at 3898 yesterday pit poor low tagged. Anyhow watch out if you'll see no acceptation below them as monthly trend is up and this looks for now a clear elimination of yesterday weak stops. For now...
If it will fail below 3898 and/or 3890, back to balance around 3925. If it will succeed we can see 3834 zone
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  • #8,357
  • Feb 16, 2021 8:06am Feb 16, 2021 8:06am
Price zone 38625-3898 is a pit gap containing an almost equal other pit gap: if pit will open below it or in the middle of it, all the portion up to 3898 will be a triple gap. Take note as this is clearly a liquidation. A frantic liquidation against major trend. Also current GB high is poor 39415. If something will go wrong downside you know where it will retrace.

In order to evaluate current liquidation, note that actually the only serious level for pit is Friday pit weekly unch at 38525: unless acceptation below it, nothing serious is happening downside. Game will change only with a clear acceptation below it.
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  • #8,358
  • Feb 16, 2021 9:47am Feb 16, 2021 9:47am
Quoting Lock
Price zone 38625-3898 is a pit gap containing an almost equal other pit gap: if pit will open below it or in the middle of it, all the portion up to 3898 will be a triple gap. Take note as this is clearly a liquidation. A frantic liquidation against major trend. Also current GB high is poor 39415. If something will go wrong downside you know where it will retrace. In order to evaluate current liquidation, note that actually the only serious level for pit is Friday pit weekly...

Note Pit correction exactly contained in 38625-3898: 3898 only almost tagged for now
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  • #8,359
  • Feb 16, 2021 9:59am Feb 16, 2021 9:59am
Quoting Lock
Price zone 38625-3898 is a pit gap containing an almost equal other pit gap: if pit will open below it or in the middle of it, all the portion up to 3898 will be a triple gap. Take note as this is clearly a liquidation. A frantic liquidation against major trend. Also current GB high is poor 39415. If something will go wrong downside you know where it will retrace. In order to evaluate current liquidation, note that actually the only serious level for pit is Friday pit weekly unch...
All the frantic liquidation against major trend taken out......
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  • #8,360
  • Feb 16, 2021 10:10am Feb 16, 2021 10:10am
Anyhow, very elongated C period and we are back to balance poc 3925 as I wrote in a previous post so. See you later. Or tomorrow if it will remain in balance or if it will correct C period.
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