EURUSD only

So apparently UMich consumer sentiment was the proximate cause/excuse to re-sell an already oversold USD on a Friday. IMO this is getting way out into the paranoid weeds for a market reaction. Sentiment is fickle and often wrong. Look for more EURUSD short entry points next week. Still bearish on multi-week/multi-month timeframes for EURUSD.

Thank you ❤

I see a bit of bear and bullish talk... my take would be it's hard to say, either way, the only thing is certain it's what it is showing in the chart. Obviously, the long-term trend is bullish since June and currently, it looks nothing but a pullback that appears to be completed and headed to possibly test the High (2340 area).
The real bullish take-off was in July to follow with a PB which lasted the next 3mo (Aug, Sep, Oct) that halt could have turned into a reversal but it didn't instead the trend resumed we got another leg up and now since the start of 2021, we are witnessing another halt which remains to be seen with usual 3 options, lol.. 1. bullish trend resume with another leg up.. 2. Reversal for a possible bearish trend.. 3, Range sideways action for an unknown time.
Ask for me I keep it simple and realistic and take option 3 for now by take into account and deal with is the 400 range box looking mostly bearish.. and only take action on key levels until it shows me otherwise.
I personally will not even think any trend trade till the break of the immediate range box at hand and only test the market for the bounce offs from the two levels pointed in my chart (2185ish - 1950ish).
Just sharing my humble 2cents on e/u, love to hear yours to get us ready for next week.

Nice thread lots of gem... thank you Ata

If any DAILY candle can close above 1.2175 it can turn back to bullish, otherwise a bearish setup is slowly forming!

Thank you Sir

i use market structure and mean reversion.
currently eu is sitting at the mean on higher timeframes

long term view can be seen on the monthly, bullish

for next week i will be sort unless any high is taken out (can been on the HNS formation chart i posted)


have a good weekend all

btw. @ata i use a prety similar system to yours. different timeframe and settings but similar

What a great pair. The week was closed on a positive.

Hi folks,

I know a lot of websites have an "Economic Calendar" tool with macro data, central banks and so on.

I wanted to know if there is something similar for the euro dollar, a tool that shows what are the most relevant news to be published each day about the pair.

Thank you very much.

Hi folks,

Been a wild 2nd week !

8/2 Long
buy at 1.20523 with initial take profit target 1.21902. Exited half of my size on 12/2 morning at 1.21242
Exited my remaining half in the evening at 1.21295

Total captured swings = 1.21242 -1.20523 = 0.00719 @ half postion = 0.0035395 ~ 35.9 pips
Exited the remaining half @ 1.21295 - 1.20523 = 0.00772 @ half position = 0.00386 ~ 38.6 pips
8/2 - 12/2 = 35.9 + 38.6 = 75.5 pips swing.

12/2 short
short @ 1.21237 with initial profit target @ 1.19527
exited my short @ 1.21211 = 0.00026 ~ 2.6 pips
Reasons for exiting my shorts. Price did not look good

Satisfied with this week price action
9/2
Was expecting price to rally as per continuation trade from LO during NYO.
Longed at 1.20939 and price reacted well. As it approach 2R, I shifted my SL to BE, but price retraced and took me out at BE.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8wJugDfy/

10/2
Missed price by 0.5 pips and rallied. A little disappointed as it's a clear winner after sweeping the local lows.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kXf17k2H/

10/2
Took a second try. Longed at 1.2128, price reacted well and hit 2.5R, unfortunately I was aiming higher which falls short. As it was getting late, I closed all at +1R. But hey, profit is still profit right?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UCTOsBb2/

11/2
Longed at 1.21343 as I have a long bias. Was actually aiming for highs again, and it fall short. The second rally fails to hit the highs again, so i closed half position. The other half was closed when price broke market structure to the downside after sweeping the local highs. Total profit for this trade was +1.7R.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdkGLiNs/

12/2
Set and order at 1.20896 after price broke market structure at the local highs. I missed the breaking of market structure in DXY which can be used in this scenario. If I entered based on DYX, trade would have triggered and hit my profit target of 4R.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HNT3ekwO/

Total profit for this week: +2.7R

I was expecting a quick move from 1.2076 - 1.2066 but it picked up early from 1.2084. I kept small shorts @ 1.2095 and added large @1.2128. All of them still running.
Let's see how Monday opens.

Scalping with precision

H1 Status Update

For my followers: Okay guys, for coming week I will quickly show you current situation and how we can make the best decision..

1. As some of you remember I decided to enter at aggressive entry level and could get in at 1.2103 (1.21015 on chart) which was a dangerous thing hence the name "aggressive entry" but sadly they sucker punched me with a MOFU candle directly going back above GREEN line.. What are the chances? But yeah, I don't mind them, I was just annoyed with their timing which came almost at the end of London session when I personally least expected it..
2. One thing I intentionally ignored was the BLUE line, providing strong support at that time, and as you can see from the blue arrow I put on chart, it rejected price perfectly and strongly.. That part is my bad.. I saw how it tossed at the BLUE line and how bears were rejected but I still had to make a decision quick and my decision was to enter short aggressively with touch to my Dashed-BLUE TL (currently black lines on chart below but you get what I mean) with hopes that the BLUE line would break with next drop.. but.. of course that drop never came as we all have witnessed..
3. Now.. to be honest.. speaking based on chart, bulls have the advantage.. Why? Because my GREEN line is still above BLUE line and H1 candles are also slightly above GREEN line.. What makes the situation so uncertain though is the steep dump&pump action towards BLUE line.. The question is: should we completely ignore that this happened or should we stay suspicious? I personally prefer to stay suspicious.
4. So.. that all being said, my plan for Monday is to wait for candles to get out of this uncertain area.. I will wait for 2 things:
5. I will either wait for any H1 candle to close above 1.2132 so I can get my confirmation that bulls have enough power for continuation and then I would look for long entries OR
6. I will wait for H1 candles to close back below 1.2105 and then I could look for short entries again..
7. Whatever happens in between the two mentioned levels is a scalpers heaven and it is currently favoring bulls.. So for now I suggest you scalp carefully or do nothing..

I hope it helps

*Based on weekly, my stubborn bearish bias stays but we also have to respect intraday levels and this was my comment for H1.. Please don't mix the two..

I noticed a lot of negative talk against Ata´s temporary Bear bias. "How can you be a Bear in such an obvious Bull run". The answer is simple: Anyone that has been around the markets as long as I have, knows that any market can be in a bear market and a bull market at the same time. It depends on the time frame you are considering as your point of reference. Ata´s contention is that EU is now in a short term correction within a longer term bull market. This is absolutely correct. To prove my point, I will share a little secret which is a small part of my system and which proves the point.

EurUsd will ALWAYS test a previous NEW bottom on the Daily chart. What do I call a NEW bottom? A NEW bottom is a new low made on the Daily chart after price falls below the Green Line (49 LWMA) after having been above it recently. In the attached chart I label New Lows with the number 1 and the subsequent tests with the number 2. You can go back and check as long as you care to and you will see that this always occurs. It even happened after the amazing March 9th high at 1.1487 after a 700 pips run straight up. The previous low was tested on March 19th.

In the chart, I labeled the currently expected test with 2???. It should happen within the next 8 to 10 sessions.

Bottom Line: Ata is 100% correct. Unless this is an extraordinary exception, there will be a substantial drop to at least 1.1990, before heading up again to weekly and monthly new highs. The Big Boys simply will not join the party in any substantial way until this occurs.

path to the mid Q1

Weekly Analysis (of my trading).

On Monday I inherited from Friday a short position, 12.5% of the account, 24 PiPs underwater. I started from Asia session and in a few hours I had nearly 10% gain on account. I didn't take it to balance... because it didn't erase, psychologically nullifying ??!!, Friday's loss. I was still a bit short when price accelerated up. I struggled and took too many risks in BLaSHing and SHaBLing. After a while I had raised my short by 33 PiPs, halved its size, had +6% on equity. As price continued strong, up, I finally had the good sense to hedge it after 12 hours of trading. By then the floating profit on equity was reduced to 3%.

It was terrible trading. A great demonstration of trading skills, my vanity would have me believe, except that... the risks taken were such that, I know, if repeated over time I would blow up the account many times. It's always the mind, and the emotions, more specifically, that fuck you up. I should have been more aggressive in managing the losing position, reducing it to a manageable size (2% of the account @) and any gains at all should have been considered a bonus. Also, I saw and realized consciously by mid session, that price was hesitating too much in going further down, and yet I did nothing and so had to struggle as position went again deep underwater...

Mid week I traded scared after the then recent experiences. Conservatively, small losses or gains.

Friday I started on the right side as price went my way. Position was too small, though (lower than my ambitions would have liked, but also lower than what I can manage). Attempted to increase it on up retrs. taking out lower shorts upon down moves in order to keep average price high and desired position size. Some degree of success. At one point I got a signal, the kind I get a handful of times a month.

Went in heavy short (25+% of account). Price moves in favor, then hesitates, took position out quickly, mostly in profit. Price up retr. a bit higher. Got conflicting signals. Went flat. Went long at the midday drop. Dropped further, BLaSHed and SHaBLed with reasonable size, went up, took more profits. Accumulated short. Got overly scared as price kept up. Briefly partially hedged the short position. Had the good sense to remove the hedge, right before down acceleration. Took some profits. Tried to increase size on small up retr. Took it out with mostly profits. Price did one more down thrust and I took out the last of the shorts. Then something curious happened.

Closed the last short, decided to call it a day, picked calculator, posted results, walked away. When I came back, a few minutes later, I noticed the bottom was right at a support from which a good reaction I expect to happen. And in fact, price was responding strongly up. I was a bit conflicted about what to do.

In the end after a couple more R levels broken I took the plunge with small size, long. Took profit ending a very good day. But if I had had the presence of mind of staying on, trading I would have noticed the signal and reversed long, with good size; I would have made >double what I did. The sharp up move late Friday was entirely technically justified and not an arbitrarily decided stop run.

Past four weeks, average +10% per week. With 400:1, 15% weekly would be extremely good. This game is a whole lot of mental gymnastics, aside from the technical side of it. With superior focus, emotional control, stamina, I can do better. The struggles of discretionary trading are more psycho-emotional, than with the systematic guys.

Absolutely. I've seen my results increase dramatically by accepting conservative profits every day and avoiding overtrading. It's the only way to get out of the boom and bust cycle. The bad decision making that comes from overconfidence after a winning streak or going on tilt after a loss are equally dangerous. The first half of the week provided some nice opportunities for shorter TF traders but the second half of the week I had to stay out and divert my attention to other markets, it was too messy and skittish. I suspect I would have lost money on eurusd on the 10th/11th/12th.

Me too.

H4 Update Status

next week I have 3 skenarios for trade EURUSD ( Red , Green & Blue)

oh ....something relation with gold tf daily (74.5% correlation EURUSD with Gold from 2001)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)