Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2814 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #56,261
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:24am Feb 10, 2021 5:24am
just took a handful of points off dax, long.
just check the time of my old post to check.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,262
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:52am Feb 10, 2021 5:52am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Always trade how you feel, trade to your ability and understanding. You prefer a trailing stop, which is great BUT i prefer to add to a winning trade.(Horses for Courses). i posted about entering with 2 trades, close 1 at +5 and let the other run. I was showing this as an example, i have done it but again it is an example.
Yes, defnitely go with what you feel most comfortable.

I also tried both examples. I donīt see much of a difference so far here between trailing the stop or adding multiple more positions. You make more money if price keeps going your way or you lose more money if price is turning against you. Simple.

If you trail your stop while price is moving your way you need to decide how much room you will give it for your trailing stop, where you lock.

Lets say you move/trail your stop to +5 once price travels to +6. Then you are locked in for +5 if price retraces back there. Chances are that GBP/USD will retrace that 1 pip in a blink of an eye and your are OUT most of the time anyways.

Giving it more room chances are it will retrace even more than -1 back on you where you COULD already have book in your +5 and call it a day. So you then might end up with nothing at all or even having it crash your stop/counter.
  • #56,263
  • Edited 9:22am Feb 10, 2021 8:31am | Edited 9:22am
t 14-31
it looks like dax might be on the move, it looks up .
Lets see.


edit at 15-10 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

edit t 15-21 it dropped lol,,, got some more points. i was expecting it to rise but hey ho, a line is a line to trigger
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,264
  • Feb 10, 2021 11:57am Feb 10, 2021 11:57am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes, defnitely go with what you feel most comfortable. I also tried both examples. I donīt see much of a difference so far here between trailing the stop or adding multiple more positions. You make more money if price keeps going your way or you lose more money if price is turning against you. Simple. If you trail your stop while price is moving your way you need to decide how much room you will give it for your trailing stop, where you lock. Lets say you move/trail your stop to +5 once price travels to +6. Then you are locked in for +5...
Hi Iddd, yes, seen from that perspective, I agree with you.

I do it a little bit different though, there are a lot of variables you can look at when on this topic.

Just as an example, if I were around all today "my way" would have gotten 35 points out of the Billy Bar all together (I wasn't around all day, I stopped after +5).
  • #56,265
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:04pm Feb 10, 2021 5:04pm
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Hi Iddd, yes, seen from that perspective, I agree with you. I do it a little bit different though, there are a lot of variables you can look at when on this topic. Just as an example, if I were around all today "my way" would have gotten 35 points out of the Billy Bar all together (I wasn't around all day, I stopped after +5).
Yes. I think trying to get more out it becomes easier with experience. There is no one-way of doing it that fits it all.

Keep sharing your ideas, questions and results. Like it.
  • #56,266
  • Feb 11, 2021 12:41am Feb 11, 2021 12:41am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes. I think trying to get more out it becomes easier with experience. There is no one-way of doing it that fits it all. Keep sharing your ideas, questions and results. Like it.
Thank you Iddd, I really appreciate that.
  • #56,267
  • Feb 11, 2021 1:41am Feb 11, 2021 1:41am
Cable Daily range was a little 64, not even 70 lol.
last 10 daily range starting at 28th Jan is
116-94-102-99-64-133-86-69-78-64

edit. Obviously there is some uncertainty even for the market movers.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,268
  • Feb 11, 2021 2:16am Feb 11, 2021 2:16am
Quoting billytt
Cable Daily range was a little 64, not even 70 lol. last 10 daily range starting at 28th Jan is 116-94-102-99-64-133-86-69-78-64 edit. Obviously there is some uncertainty even for the market movers.
Agree, I think the implied volatility of a Brexit deal to take cable back up to the 1.40s seems to be stuttering. Maybe it's the Sleepy Joe effect. Bring back Donald with Twitter, Cable was much more fun!
  • #56,269
  • Feb 11, 2021 2:17am Feb 11, 2021 2:17am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Agree, I think the implied volatility of a Brexit deal to take cable back up to the 1.40s seems to be stuttering. Maybe it's the Sleepy Joe effect. Bring back Donald with Twitter, Cable was much more fun!
a lot to do with the dollar, agreed.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,270
  • Feb 11, 2021 2:41am Feb 11, 2021 2:41am
Cable, 08-00 break.
Low broke for +5%
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,271
  • Feb 11, 2021 2:55am Feb 11, 2021 2:55am
Dax was very generous today with a long break scalp.
Sometimes fast movement can help.
Sometimes it ruins you, lol
t 08-55
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,272
  • Feb 11, 2021 3:32am Feb 11, 2021 3:32am
cable chart copied a minute ago time now 09-30.
If on a normal day we get the magic 70.
From here, if price breaks high we should get 30, or if it breaks low we should get 30. Lets see.

Point. the high and low has already broken, at this moment my bias is short. Lets see.

plus, with this knowledge we can use maths to work out odds, and trade size.
t 09-32
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,273
  • Feb 11, 2021 4:07am Feb 11, 2021 4:07am
Retrace trades, and this happened earlier and is still happening.
The High area broke and then it retraced. =1.
We have retrace and any time we could of taken a retrace trade long =1. AND IT WOULD OF FAILED, But we would not of lost as much.

Soooooo, the low broke and we had retrace =2. we can now short anytime, if it fails we do not lose as much.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 11 02 21 AA.png Size: 21 KB
IF price gets close to a fail, we can do a cheeky short lol.
t 10-07
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,274
  • Feb 11, 2021 5:02am Feb 11, 2021 5:02am
Quoting billytt
Retrace trades, and this happened earlier and is still happening. The High area broke and then it retraced. =1. We have retrace and any time we could of taken a retrace trade long =1. AND IT WOULD OF FAILED, But we would not of lost as much. Soooooo, the low broke and we had retrace =2. we can now short anytime, if it fails we do not lose as much. {image}IF price gets close to a fail, we can do a cheeky short lol. t 10-07
so we had this. where we have retrace and line 2, where we can enter a retrace trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 11 02 21 AA.png Size: 21 KB
.to here,, we have drop?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 11 02 21 AAA.png Size: 25 KB
can we still get that 30??????
time now 11-02
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,275
  • Feb 11, 2021 6:01am Feb 11, 2021 6:01am
Quoting billytt
{quote} so we had this. where we have retrace and line 2, where we can enter a retrace trade. {image} .to here,, we have drop? {image} can we still get that 30?????? time now 11-02
What time span is T Billy?
  • #56,276
  • Feb 11, 2021 6:01am Feb 11, 2021 6:01am
Retrace Trades.
First, if we have a break and then a retrace?
We do not know how far this retrace will move, it could be a total first fail or maybe it could reach a pivot/00/50 .
It could retrace a point or two or several.
so we had this, below
we could of gone short anywhere on line 2..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 11 02 21 AAA.png Size: 25 KB



so it dropped, we could either take profit or keep trade open.
Dont forget we might be looking for that 30 points plus the retrace.
Look what happened when the 00-00 low was made. it has retraced back up. line 4.
soooooooooooo we can short again unless your original retrace trade was still open.
t 12-01
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,277
  • Feb 11, 2021 6:04am Feb 11, 2021 6:04am
Quoting lddd
{quote} What time span is T Billy?
it doesnt matter the time span,
we only have small price movement, it has to go somewhere.
my charts are 5 minutes so you can see better.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,278
  • Edited 6:19am Feb 11, 2021 6:09am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting billytt
{quote} it doesnt matter the time span, we only have small price movement, it has to go somewhere. my charts are 5 minutes so you can see better.
Thanks, i have this. I never look at the M5, so this got me confused. I think you once told me, switching TFs doesnīt matter. Price is price, time is time.

I did two shorts today. The first was kind a retrace, shorted at a bit higher than the actual 08-15 low, it moved slow, i got out, second short around the same area but 2 hours later. Got the +5 then finally but had to wait about 40 minutes for it. However i wasnīt watching it and decided to let it do what it has do do this time. Worked out.

GU M15. ADR 12:19, i have = 45.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable-110221-0815-range.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #56,279
  • Feb 11, 2021 6:24am Feb 11, 2021 6:24am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks, i have this. I never look at the M5, so this got me confused. I think you once told me, switching TFs doesnīt matter. Price is price, time is time. I did two shorts today. The first was kind a retrace, shorted at a bit higher than the actual 08-15 low, it moved slow, i got out, second short around the same area but 2 hours later. Got the +5 then finally but had to wait about 40 minutes for it. However i wasnīt watching it and decided to let it do what it has do do this time. Worked out. GU M15. ADR 12:19, i have = 45. {image}
i show the 5 min chart so you can see movement better, it could of been 10 min, 15 min .
The main point being is, we have a range which will break. in this case it is the 00-00 4 hour bar range and we are chasing the average daily range, or part of it.

i am just trying to show what we look at and what might happen.

so far we have very slow movement plus that original long trade and possible retrace trade was a fail.
whereas the short break and short retrace is doing well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56,280
  • Edited 7:11am Feb 11, 2021 6:39am | Edited 7:11am
Quote
I placed another short for the fun of it at smaller size. Targeting 1.3802

Stopped out. Bugger...
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