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Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

  • #1,501
  • Feb 10, 2021 1:33pm Feb 10, 2021 1:33pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There's a central algo that dictates the market structure and value limits within which actual trading is transacted. This algo is universal for all brokers and market participants. Only black Swan type events require the algo to recalibrate. When you write about algos fighting each other, you mean market participants trading algos. There are plenty of such algos executing transactions everyday for big financial institutions. These algos are different from the central algo that's referred to in paragraph 1. I hope this answer your question....
That is exactly what George also said (in the original thread). If there were more there is bound to be a conflict. This one does not seem to be conflicted. It makes me wonder... may be you are George using another name
  • #1,502
  • Feb 10, 2021 1:38pm Feb 10, 2021 1:38pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There's a central algo that dictates the market structure and value limits within which actual trading is transacted. This algo is universal for all brokers and market participants. Only black Swan type events require the algo to recalibrate. When you write about algos fighting each other, you mean market participants trading algos. There are plenty of such algos executing transactions everyday for big financial institutions. These algos are different from the central algo that's referred to in paragraph 1. There's a discussion about this...

Hi BWilliam,
Yes it does....it also opens up a slew of questions, but I suspect these have all been answered at some point in the thread you just showed me, and also in George's thread.

Thank you pointing these out. Also thank you for keeping this discussion going.

Best,
Almo
  • #1,503
  • Feb 10, 2021 2:16pm Feb 10, 2021 2:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There's a central algo that dictates the market structure and value limits within which actual trading is transacted. This algo is universal for all brokers and market participants. Only black Swan type events require the algo to recalibrate. When you write about algos fighting each other, you mean market participants trading algos. There are plenty of such algos executing transactions everyday for big financial institutions. These algos are different from the central algo that's referred to in paragraph 1. There's a discussion about this...
Absolutely correct.

I wrote on one of Bryjons thread back, probably around 2012, that I had convinced myself that we were dealing with a single source data feed...an Algo.
There hasn't been one day since that I would think about changing my mind.
George thought the same.
Watching price move to the pip to take out a target, candle wick etc... to believe that money added to the market has resulted in price randomly walking around these structures...nope, not in my book.

For those unsure, to be clear, when we refer to 'the algo' this is not an EA, or brokers software trading against, its purely the one source data feed that our dear brokers pass onto us.
What they do with that data feed is open to 'interpretation'!
  • #1,504
  • Feb 10, 2021 3:12pm Feb 10, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There's a central algo that dictates the market structure and value limits within which actual trading is transacted. This algo is universal for all brokers and market participants. Only black Swan type events require the algo to recalibrate. When you write about algos fighting each other, you mean market participants trading algos. There are plenty of such algos executing transactions everyday for big financial institutions. These algos are different from the central algo that's referred to in paragraph 1. There's a discussion about this...
The Algo does have an achillies heel -

It moves the market by creating Vacuum zones above bullish markets or below bearish markets. These voids prevent price from moving up or down and forces price to retrace back to regions of higher liquidity.

There is a problem however - a fat finger trade. Volume or I should say varying density of orders are altered to create gaps which are mostly hidden on our charts. As long as no idiot dumps a large density of orders into that gap, price will retrace. Or if no idiot suddenly removes large density of orders from the chart at the wrong time, price retraces.

Then the Algo uses Speed of the market to perform its duties.
But the Volume needs to be set before this action occurs - and keep those bankers busy doing something else.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,505
  • Feb 10, 2021 3:19pm Feb 10, 2021 3:19pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Absolutely correct. I wrote on one of Bryjons thread back, probably around 2012, that I had convinced myself that we were dealing with a single source data feed...an Algo. There hasn't been one day since that I would think about changing my mind. George thought the same. Watching price move to the pip to take out a target, candle wick etc... to believe that money added to the market has resulted in price randomly walking around these structures...nope, not in my book. For those unsure, to be clear, when we refer to 'the algo' this is not...
Yes, I totally agree; coming from interlinked national/central banks (probably centralized in the BIS).

And brokers/LPs "modest manipulation" is just about some spreads widening, slippage and platform freezes, now and then...

Also, before I was referring to the heavy (super-computing) quantitative trading algorithms used by some commercial banks, hedge funds and proprietary firms.
  • #1,506
  • Feb 10, 2021 4:27pm Feb 10, 2021 4:27pm
But the Algo has a even bigger problem, the market remembers.

AUDUSD - A vacuum was created May 2015 at 77.15.

The market has a memory, see what happen six years later at that point this week, and 3 hours ago.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,507
  • Edited 4:38pm Feb 10, 2021 4:28pm | Edited 4:38pm
Quoting RickM
The Algo does have an achillies heel - It moves the market by creating Vacuum zones above bullish markets or below bearish markets. These voids prevent price from moving up or down and forces price to retrace back to regions of higher liquidity. There is a problem however - a fat finger trade. Volume or I should say varying density of orders are altered to create gaps which are mostly hidden on our charts. As long as no idiot dumps a large density of orders into that gap, price will retrace. Or if no idiot suddenly removes large density...
That's why earlier in the discussion I wrote the only way to get a real edge over this highly manipulated market is to know it's weakness and vulnerability. Your description of this archilles heel is spot on correct on one aspect.

The predictability of this super algo is deeper than that since this algo is written on math based logic. Anyone who is able to decode the underlying math structure can make accurate predictions way into the future market without a single transaction executed yet.

As an example, imagine if the trader knew the algo level of EA is 1.3695 48hours ahead. Imagine all the other sub-levels are known for every pair traded. That's the depth of weakness and vulnerability. Perhaps I should not write this on a public forum.
Know what you trade
  • #1,508
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:03pm Feb 10, 2021 5:03pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} That's why earlier in the discussion I wrote the only way to get a real edge over this highly manipulated market is to know it's weakness and vulnerability. Your description of this archilles heel is spot on correct on one aspect. The predictability of this super algo is deeper than that since this algo is written on math based logic. Anyone who is able to decode the underlying math structure can make accurate predictions way into the future market without a single transaction executed yet. As an example, imagine if the trader knew the algo...
Lol, dude, you talk as if you really "knew it", when in fact it's nothing more than pure speculation (much closer to hypothesis than theory). The "ALGO" doesn't "decide" future prices arbitrarily. It mostly balances the main currencies, their liquidity and exchange rates, aggregating all electronic/digital bank transactions between them, across all financial markets (every asset/security, good/commodity and even services are valued/represented and traded in currency).

* Only a few cryptocurrencies on the relatively distant future (maybe not so "distant") could work outside all that; within some isolated "off-the-grid"anarchist liberal communities, outside the main political-financial system inside big cities.
  • #1,509
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:05pm Feb 10, 2021 5:05pm
Quoting Viktory
Lol, dude, you talk as if you really "knew it", when in fact it's nothing more than pure speculation (much closer to hypothesis than theory). The "ALGO" doesn't "decide" future prices arbitrarily. It mostly balances the main currencies, their liquidity and exchange rates, aggregating all electronic/digital bank transactions between them, across all financial markets (every asset/security, good/commodity and even services are valued/represented and traded in currency).
If only you read my last sentence. I expected your response to my post. Yes from you. You're so predictable. Best you don't write about things that's way over your head. Stick with RickM. Anyway I won't write anymore about it. FF forum is not ready for this. Makes you happier.
Know what you trade
  • #1,510
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:16pm Feb 10, 2021 5:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} If only you read my last sentence. I expected your response to my post. Yes from you. You're so predictable. Best you don't write about things that's way over your head. Stick with RickM. Anyway I won't write anymore about it. FF forum is not ready for this. Makes you happier.
Yeah, whatever; merely another fool constantly projection its own childish EGO into others. And yeah, your post #1,465 was just some silly nonsense (so no need to reply at all), as most of what you say. You're delusional...

When someone has not substance to discuss/debate anymore, his only resource left is negatively judging without knowing, and making personal attacks.
  • #1,511
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:19pm Feb 10, 2021 5:19pm
Quoting Viktory
Yeah, whatever; merely another fool constantly projection its own childish EGO into others. And yeah, your post #1,465 was just some silly nonsense (so no need to reply at all), as most of what you say. You're delusional...
I love you to call me fool, let it off your chest. Feels better right? You've waited a long time. See, you've been easily manipulated. I've been counting the members who love to call me fool.
Know what you trade
  • #1,512
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:21pm Feb 10, 2021 5:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I love you to call me fool, let it off your chest. Feels better right? I've been counting the members who love to call me fool.
Yes, behaving that way is definitely very impolite and ultimately foolish, sorry.
  • #1,513
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:24pm Feb 10, 2021 5:24pm
Quoting Viktory
Yes, acting that way is definitely foolish, sorry.
No worries, you're not alone. A caveful, that's a lot. Anyway I'm done. Enjoy the forum. Back to PeterCaleb.
Know what you trade
  • #1,514
  • Feb 10, 2021 5:31pm Feb 10, 2021 5:31pm
about algo non-algo, nobody (as far as i remember), in the thread "real or algo", answered anyways to a point that xredstarx was stressing (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...r-algo?page=7):

"I have provided mine, and I have given the solution with explanations for why the market is not algo driven, and how are the movements in price are explained by supply, demand, and liquidity market forces.
If I have not provided evidence for so, I can do so now by giving you examples of the same patterns in markets where there is for a fact, absolutely no algorithms, no market manipulation, no stop orders, or no leverage taking place. You can pull up similar examples using any ticker on Tradingview as you please."

He spoke about markets such US 2-year Treasury bill, or Egyptian equity market
  • #1,515
  • Edited 6:09pm Feb 10, 2021 5:44pm | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting loppo0101
about algo non-algo, nobody (as far as i remember), in the thread "real or algo", answered anyways to a point that xredstarx was stressing (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...r-algo?page=7): "I have provided mine, and I have given the solution with explanations for why the market is not algo driven, and how are the movements in price are explained by supply, demand, and liquidity market forces. If I have not provided evidence for so, I can do so now by giving you examples of the same patterns in markets where there is for...
OK, so no algorithms at all...
So for example, how do you think Quantitative High-Frequency Arbitrage is actually done? Armies of monkeys incessantly pressing buttons?
No leverage, really? What are Derivatives then?
No Forex market manipulation? Then what about the billionaire fines to some commercial banks like HSBC? Or what do the SNB and BOJ do?
Or the insider information that some Hedge Funds use in their favor?
Another example: did you actually read/hear anything about the recent GameStop case mainly involving Melvin Capital, Reddit's WallStreetBets and Robinhood?
  • #1,516
  • Edited 6:27pm Feb 10, 2021 5:46pm | Edited 6:27pm
Quoting loppo0101
about algo non-algo, nobody (as far as i remember), in the thread "real or algo", answered anyways to a point that xredstarx was stressing (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...r-algo?page=7): "I have provided mine, and I have given the solution with explanations for why the market is not algo driven, and how are the movements in price are explained by supply, demand, and liquidity market forces. If I have not provided evidence for so, I can do so now by giving you examples of the same patterns in markets where there is for...
Read post #123 for the initial question.

Post #125 for the answer.

Sure, I mainly use 3 tools in my analysis

1) Basic supply and demand
2) Price action
3) Common sense

That's all you need. - - - - unquote

Post #128, 138, 139, 147 moodybot's response.
Post #133, RickM's response.
Post #144, bluesteele's comment with a question.
Post #145 pooh's comment.
Post #149 bfx17's comment.

This is what I wrote.
Quoting BWilliam
Hmmm....., one thing is certain traditional technical analysis is useless in this algo world.
You can't have it both ways. For starters make up your mind. Single algo or not? I'm out of this discussion.
Know what you trade
  • #1,517
  • Feb 10, 2021 6:11pm Feb 10, 2021 6:11pm
3 people walk into a shop to buy a loaf of bread to feed the kids.

What type of bread and what price would they agree on?

Multigrain at $4.40 is actually the correct answer.

Now consider 8-10 huge financial institutions and get them to agree on every aspect of running a market to trade, from price, manipulation, spread...

Nope, can’t see it.

One highly controlled Algo for each asset, independent, where nothing’s left to chance!

An illusionist’s dream.
  • #1,518
  • Feb 10, 2021 6:17pm Feb 10, 2021 6:17pm
Quoting moodybot
3 people walk into a shop to buy a loaf of bread to feed the kids. What type of bread and what price would they agree on? Multigrain at $4.40 is actually the correct answer. Now consider 8-10 huge financial institutions and get them to agree on every aspect of running a market to trade, from price, manipulation, spread... Nope, can’t see it. One highly controlled Algo for each asset, independent, where nothing’s left to chance! An illusionist’s dream.
Well, they are literally are a BIG global "cartel" (without necessarily taking the term from anyone else) rigging most of the game together.
And of course, spreads and execution/slippage on the retail space has nothing to do with them...
  • #1,519
  • Feb 10, 2021 6:21pm Feb 10, 2021 6:21pm
Quoting Viktory
Well, they are literally are a BIG global "cartel" (without necessarily taking the term from anyone else) rigging most of the game together. And of course, spreads and execution/slippage on the retail space has nothing to do with them...
Shouting on forum won't count for this single algo to be true. A few live calls of algo level do a better job than shouting. Promise my last post responding to you.
Know what you trade
  • #1,520
  • Feb 10, 2021 6:25pm Feb 10, 2021 6:25pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Well, they are literally are a BIG global "cartel" (without necessarily taking the term from anyone else) rigging most of the game together. And of course, spreads and execution/slippage on the retail space has nothing to do with them...
Yep, the same data feed reaches each broker, whether it’s retail or within the industry... from that point the games start.
Following the paths back will converge down to one source.
I think it would be too dangerous for a non controlled data source..
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