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  • #126,281
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:17am Feb 9, 2021 1:17am
Quoting mysterio
Congrats bulls, I really wanted to long that 1.2043 area with the W pattern and flag breakout but held back- oh well plenty more opportunities. The 0.618 retrace of the last upthrust of the W/neckline turned out to be the best place I think now 1.2078 is good for a short, divergence on 1h and 0.618 retrace of most recent down move last week, plus we're in a demand zone in dxy, trying to work out a good target. Just a small intraday/scalp. We're also coming up to a big trendline on dxy EDIT- I still think its not a bad place to short but I notice...
Last 4H close is bullish to me. I'd rather buy the dips up until 1.2130/1.2135 at least. I suspect even 1.2200 can be tested this week.
  • #126,282
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:24am Feb 9, 2021 1:24am
Quoting forextrini1
If you did not believe in market manipulation...Take a look at the charts! Create a nice bearish sentiment all week long...Market makers posting news about potential great employment numbers will be and more down trend, sellers setup limit orders around 1.2000 and then our great "economists" makes a blunder on the NFP by about 40K? seriously and this happens...as stop losses get hit, it will keep going higher, then you wonder how did this happen?...perfect trap! Resistance is futile! Lets go bulls! I say initial push will be to 1.2040 ...could also...
So I closed my Friday trade early did not want to be holding over the weekend.(yes actually followed one of my rules) My initial goal was hit on Friday at 1.2040 I reentered market with bounce off 1.2050 long@ 1.2057 We are nearing second target of 1.2080, my SL has been moved up to profit area the so that is locked in once 1.2080 breaks final goal will be to 1.2117 before selling starts again is my forecast. I do not use indicators, stopped using those year ago but love you guys colorful thingys yet I come up with almost the same levels and targets as everyone using indicators. I am looking to the left of chart to see prior highs which caused the push down and we're not yet taken out. Basically "smart money" did a push down last week and they simply have to close out those positions before going with the real move which is bearish IMO. That was around the 1.2130 mark. Will we get there who knows?? Call me a conspiracy theorist but I believe markets are 100% manipulated. I also am a fan of ICT still learning his strategies.
My goal with this trade is to get 25 pips minimum. I am plus 21 pips so far. I think ICT recommends getting 25 pips consistently for 6 months. I know people say let profits run but it's best to lock in targeted goals. So I always set take profit targets when away from the screen. There will always be another good trade. Time spent off the market is time spent not in a potential loss.

Due to being bad on following my own rules in January I am trading extremely small positions in February until I get 20 wins. Yes I done it before. Call it penance! Normal suggestions for people who suffer a big loss would be to go back to demo trading but I just don't think it is the same. I trade with money I can afford to lose so don't put your life savings into trading unless you know what you doing. Brokers such as one I am using Oanda allows for tiny micro lot trading in case any new people was wondering what platform I use.
Let's have a great week!
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Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #126,283
  • Edited 1:39am Feb 9, 2021 1:25am | Edited 1:39am
Quoting Connors
{quote} Last 4H close is bullish to me. I'd rather buy the dips up until 1.2130/1.2135 at least. I suspect even 1.2200 can be tested this week.
Sounds good- i suspect we have different methodologies though, I'm very shorter TF focussed (5m chart mainly with tight SLs). I do agree overall we are bullish. I think we'll see some down movement from here first though. Honestly I wouldn't know a decent swing entry if it hit me in the face, I'm happy with 10-20 pips. Also I think shahab8b's post about the ABC correction being over was on the money, even though I started off the week thinking we'd get a bit more bear action than we saw yesterday.

Could easily move down to 1.2072ish before making another high though.
  • #126,284
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:26am Feb 9, 2021 1:26am
1.2104 - 1.2117 is the good place to go short. If you be patience enough 1.2117 might be high for today.
This will take it below 1.2092 - 1.2084
  • #126,285
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:27am Feb 9, 2021 1:27am
2088 is a very strong level
  • #126,286
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:29am Feb 9, 2021 1:29am
As maybe many of ya'll, I have a news station running in the background.

+++++BREAKING NEWS+++++
German exports collapse by 9.3% compared to 2020
++++++++++++++++++++++

Impact on EURUSD?
Almost nothing, EUR rose a bit, maybe that news is bad but not as bad as expected. Let's go back to technicals...
  • #126,287
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:35am Feb 9, 2021 1:35am
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  • #126,288
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:40am Feb 9, 2021 1:40am
For EURUSD, you can even try the pullback strategy and enter narrow range patterns to have a better experience.
  • #126,289
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:41am Feb 9, 2021 1:41am
Quoting ursinho4711
As maybe many of ya'll, I have a news station running in the background. +++++BREAKING NEWS+++++ German exports collapse by 9.3% compared to 2020 ++++++++++++++++++++++ Impact on EURUSD? Almost nothing, EUR rose a bit, maybe that news is bad but not as bad as expected. Let's go back to technicals...
A war could break out and it will still move up
Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #126,290
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:42am Feb 9, 2021 1:42am
Sellers you need to wait 1hr close below 1.2075. It's a first confirmation for bearishness.
  • #126,291
  • Feb 9, 2021 1:46am Feb 9, 2021 1:46am
Here what I looking at on 15 min interesting cluster of orders. On 30 second chart nice bounce of 1.2080 exactly...again NOTE that is a 30 second chart! So I am still bullish. I will close my long trade at 1.2085 and watch for the pull back and trade off that price action but a cluster of orders is usually like a spring on a windup toy and one is about to let go....they just waiting for market open to pop So things going to happen quickly.
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Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #126,292
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:05am Feb 9, 2021 2:05am
Quoting forextrini1
Here what I looking at on 15 min interesting cluster of orders. On 30 second chart nice bounce of 1.2080 exactly...again NOTE that is a 30 second chart! So I am still bullish. I will close my long trade at 1.2085 and watch for the pull back and trade off that price action but a cluster of orders is usually like a spring on a windup toy and one is about to let go....they just waiting for market open to pop So things going to happen quickly. {image} {image}

Market open 1.2085 TP target hit +25 pips for week so far...so what if it only equates to $4 it's $4 more than I had yesterday. watching for potential pull back
Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #126,293
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:13am Feb 9, 2021 2:13am
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} Today I made the same mistake as Friday's; could have closed well (at +10% for the day, today) and instead got in trouble with the sharp rise... Still in the green though with 6.4% of account short @1.20585 (at this moment +10 PiPs floating and +6% on equity), TP at 1.20290; let's see if it gets there... PS. I lifted Friday's short 33 PiPs, halved its size and made 6% on equity (now)... but had to take huge risks. Not good. 73 ops. (my broker loves me) 47% in profit.
Yesterday I had the good sense to hedge my short.
Now IMO it is gathering strength (buys) for one more push to 1.211 about, from which we could get significant retr.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #126,294
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:16am Feb 9, 2021 2:16am
Quoting mysterio
Congrats bulls, I really wanted to long that 1.2043 area with the W pattern and flag breakout but held back- oh well plenty more opportunities. The 0.618 retrace of the last upthrust of the W/neckline turned out to be the best place I think now 1.2078 is good for a short, divergence on 1h and 0.618 retrace of most recent down move last week, plus we're in a demand zone in dxy, trying to work out a good target. Just a small intraday/scalp. We're also coming up to a big trendline on dxy EDIT- I still think its not a bad place to short but I notice...
I notice we've formed another 'W' within the wedge- a pullback to the neckline 1.2058-60 before back up would be ideal, this would also confirm broken resistance as support.

EDIT- just cashed in 15 pips, scanning for another entry long or short. Bears don't wait, we strike!!
  • #126,295
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:17am Feb 9, 2021 2:17am
well, everyone in the thread seem tobe a buyer.

based on that it should go down

just teasing you guys, finding an excuse for my sort
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  • #126,296
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:30am Feb 9, 2021 2:30am
Nice W set up
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  • #126,297
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:31am Feb 9, 2021 2:31am
Quoting nikosk0
well, everyone in the thread seem tobe a buyer. based on that it should go down just teasing you guys, finding an excuse for my sort {image}
hahahaa, I like your excuse, I'm also riding the sell for only 20 pips based on fact that this thread most traders are long.
Plan your trades and trade your plan.
  • #126,298
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:32am Feb 9, 2021 2:32am
Quoting bigiivan
{quote} Ooookkkaaaayyy! 1,2055 is done. As I said. Now a few more up steps. Then, as Iron Maiden sing, falling down (maybe tomorrow).
MACD divergence on H1. Let's see will it be enough to turn to down side! DX is still a little undecision.
  • #126,299
  • Edited 2:49am Feb 9, 2021 2:38am | Edited 2:49am
I think shorts are a bit late unless you were in from 1.208x, I'm done with short looking for a long. I considered a second short from here 1.2073 but the RR isn't good and there's too much in the way.

EDIT- nice bounce off a TL/0.382 fib of asia move. Done with shorting for now will keep an eye on things

Wow. I thought we may get a little lower but in retrospect it was the perfect launchpad for the W. Glad I cashed out when I did
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  • #126,300
  • Feb 9, 2021 2:44am Feb 9, 2021 2:44am
Quoting mysterio
I think shorts are a bit late unless you were in from 1.208x, I'm done with short looking for a long. I considered a second short from here 1.2073 but the RR isn't good and there's too much in the way. EDIT- nice bounce off a TL/0.382 fib of asia move. Done with shorting for now will keep an eye on things
well yeah it is not the ideal entry for me neither but i am trying something new that has worked last week. we shall see how it goes.

edit. i do not like that upside move that happened at all. i wanted a sharp move down.
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