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  • #126,201
  • Edited 1:06am Feb 8, 2021 12:51am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting mysterio
Important confluence area on DXY at 91, its on a TL, demand and 0.382 retrace of the most recent swing low/high. Expect some bounce and some bearish movement on EUR. Lets watch that breakout resistance area around 1.2050-60. {image}
Sell order at 1.2054 tagged overnight 10 pip SL now locked in at BE. We've formed a little bear flag at 50% of the initial down move. The entry was based on 50% retrace of the most recent swing high/low and resistance area 1.2050/60 as well as the picture on dxy, also we need to have a pull back after a big up thrust like that i reckon. I wonder if we'll initially see a range develop between the 50%/38.2% (1.2064-1.1975) levels of the recent monthly impulse leg up.

10yr Treasury yields making a bee line for 1.23% meaning the market is expecting inflation which will lead to a more hawkish fed policy. The stimulus is just transfer payments and it's main effect is likely to be inflationary, increasing demand by transferring money to people who are more likely to spend. I believe we have CPI inflation data from the US this week, this will give us some direction

Next area to take out is 1.2030 (0.382 fib) then look for a reaction at the pivot 1.20164. IF we get there, we could just be up to test 1.2050/60 again. But the flag suggests continuation down towards the pivot
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  • #126,202
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:08am Feb 8, 2021 1:08am
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  • #126,203
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:09am Feb 8, 2021 1:09am
Inflation and twin deficit imply either US yields have to increase or the USD will have to fall. I still believe the FED will step in with further QE if yields were to increase even more. Hence the USD should sell-off sharply again in the next months.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #126,204
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:10am Feb 8, 2021 1:10am
Which one is fake?

1hr and Daily
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  • #126,205
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:12am Feb 8, 2021 1:12am
Quoting mshady
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast https://www.barchart.com/story/futur...eekly-forecast
Very good one
Make it Green
  • #126,206
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:18am Feb 8, 2021 1:18am
sell order taken
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  • #126,207
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:19am Feb 8, 2021 1:19am
Quoting Georges001
Have taken a buy order on EUR/USD based on the following facts: a) False break of 1.2004 support area on the daily chart showing a two0bar reversal to the upside b) on my 4-Hour chart, price is above my EMA and p-sar dots shows a buy entry. {image} {image}
In my own opinion,I dnt see the break of 1.2000 as a fake break.The pull back to me was as a result of fundamental (News)NFP plus profit taking (Friday).Am looking at adding more shorts and will end my shorts only when price trade above 1.208000000 level.Imo
Make it Green
  • #126,208
  • Edited 2:12am Feb 8, 2021 1:21am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting nic9man
Inflation and twin deficit imply either US yields have to increase or the USD will have to fall. I still believe the FED will step in with further QE if yields were to increase even more. Hence the USD should sell-off sharply again in the next months.
Agree, yields look to be following an ABCD pattern implying a treasury rally after this sell off.. with that said I only really position myself for what is happening in the current day. Lets see where inflation is. Powell is remarkably sanguine about the prospect, and I believe they've hinted at flexibility around the 2% target.

If this 5m flag fails to hold then I'll possibly cash in the short

Edit closed at 1.2039 +15, re-entered short at 1.2046, 61.8 retrace and back at 91 on dxy, stop to BE

Edit again, out BE, certainly looks like a break up on the cards
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  • #126,209
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:31am Feb 8, 2021 1:31am
I would cover shorts in the 1.2017 -1.2009 area
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  • #126,210
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:37am Feb 8, 2021 1:37am
Quoting Georges001
Have taken a buy order on EUR/USD based on the following facts: a) False break of 1.2004 support area on the daily chart showing a two0bar reversal to the upside b) on my 4-Hour chart, price is above my EMA and p-sar dots shows a buy entry. {image} {image}
Real or demo?
  • #126,211
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:42am Feb 8, 2021 1:42am
Quoting Milan
{quote} Real or demo?
It doesn't matter as long as he understand how to execute a trade, how to place a stop loss and take profit, figuring out how to size a trade, how to use stop distance, spread, leverage and how it affects risk and your account balance
Stay low, Go fast - No luck, All skill
  • #126,212
  • Feb 8, 2021 2:07am Feb 8, 2021 2:07am
First up. We have to visit 1,2055 before going down. Down below 1,2000-1,1900 I mean.
  • #126,213
  • Feb 8, 2021 2:27am Feb 8, 2021 2:27am
Caught her just before the break, looking for 1.2017 pivot on the oanda feed.
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  • #126,214
  • Feb 8, 2021 2:57am Feb 8, 2021 2:57am
Quoting mysterio
Caught her just before the break, looking for 1.2017 pivot on the oanda feed. {image}
This fall was unusual, I guess it was because of a news story
  • #126,215
  • Edited 3:17am Feb 8, 2021 3:03am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting myths
{quote} This fall was unusual, I guess it was because of a news story
I really think this is the main story, higher yields/inflation expectations. Out of my shorts for now

DXY needs to clear 91.20 for Eur to continue down
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  • #126,216
  • Feb 8, 2021 3:21am Feb 8, 2021 3:21am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} I really think this is the main story, higher yields/inflation expectations. Out of my shorts for now DXY needs to clear 91.20 for Eur to continue down {image} {image}
More likely it'll hit 91.37.
  • #126,217
  • Feb 8, 2021 3:23am Feb 8, 2021 3:23am
Quoting mysterio
Caught her just before the break, looking for 1.2017 pivot on the oanda feed. {image}
Let’s gooo! Hehe! Soon in the hour or next!
  • #126,218
  • Feb 8, 2021 3:33am Feb 8, 2021 3:33am
...
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  • #126,219
  • Feb 8, 2021 3:44am Feb 8, 2021 3:44am
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #126,220
  • Feb 8, 2021 3:48am Feb 8, 2021 3:48am
My EurUsd analysis on Daily chart:

Solid Green Lines: Current Pitchfork.

Dashed Green Lines: Potential Future Pitchfork.

Maroon Rectangle: Possible bottom before starting up on Future Pitchfork.

Bottom line: Price Bottom around 1.1550 at end of March.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
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