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  • #126,161
  • Feb 5, 2021 4:26pm Feb 5, 2021 4:26pm
Hi folks,

Been a while! I went through some dark periods in the 2nd half of 2020 although i never blow my account and was breakeven on the entire year of 2020.

Was short since 25/1 and 26/1 - Mean reversion positions
TP strategy was letting the price run as far as it could.

Got stopped out on 6/2
Trade recalled:
25/1 = P 1.21464 & closing price 1.20467 = 0.00997 ~ 99.7 pips
26/1 = P 1.20897 & closing price 1.20407 = 0.00490 ~ 49 pips

Summary: If i exited my both my trades on 4/2 opening my results would be double of above. However, my strategy for this trade was to allow the price to run it's natural course until something appeared. That's why i have gotten ony a mere 150 pipis.
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  • #126,162
  • Feb 5, 2021 4:46pm Feb 5, 2021 4:46pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} With you and also have a pending @1.1954 just in case.
I didn't. I was so convinced that it would tap below 1.1900 first and then try to close the week above 1.20. Dammit!
No need to look behind now, eyes ahead.

The close is semi-bullish for the week and once it can close above 1.2080 any 4 H close on Monday, it can test 1.2200 and above rest of the week. The assholes did a fine job and they got my money but I'll get it back.

I am sure many here today feel some level of pain and it is good. Learn from this experience, do not revenge trade - never - it always ends badly. Setup a recovery plan and take light trades first until the weekly picture is somewhat clear. From experience when I have a bad week, I recover in about two weeks and this suits me. If I have two bad weeks in a row, I stop trading for at least a week since it clearly means I am not in sync with the market and that's OK. You may lose a few battles to win the war.

Anyway, time to chill and lick the wounds. Family time.

Have a good weekend gents.
  • #126,163
  • Feb 6, 2021 2:40am Feb 6, 2021 2:40am
Quoting Traderview
{quote} Closed @1.2009. Entered again at the r1.
This one still under water. Expecting it'll pull back to 1.2011 - 1.2023.
  • #126,164
  • Feb 6, 2021 5:07am Feb 6, 2021 5:07am
I hope market opens with a gap down next week
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #126,165
  • Feb 6, 2021 5:11am Feb 6, 2021 5:11am
I'm expecting a reversal around 1.2080 on EU
No Bias
  • #126,166
  • Feb 6, 2021 5:21am Feb 6, 2021 5:21am
Quoting imoveit
I'm expecting a reversal around 1.2080 on EU
But before it gets to 1.2080, we should see price drop around 1.2059. TP 1.1995
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No Bias
  • #126,167
  • Edited 6:37am Feb 6, 2021 5:58am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting Endoephemera
I lost nearly all of this week's gains. Half in balance and half in equity. I think price will close at the high so as to produce fear that it would gap up dramatically on Monday.
Analysis.
On Thursday I was up 16% on the week. Friday I lost nearly all the gains and closed up 2.6% on equity. I still have 12.5% of the account (400:1) short at 1.20254 (24 PiPs underwater).

How did it happen?
Start of day biased neutral but convinced down swing not over, so readying for an up retr. Being Friday I had in the back of my mind possible quick up-down swings (stops running).
Started with Long (0.5% of account) to ride the up retr. Fully hedged and then out about 10 PiPs higher. Up around 2% for the day by mid session.
Short (1% of account) at NFP data. The ensuing up was nothing unexpected. Figured I'd easily carry my short up adding to short at up thrusts and taking out lower price shorts on down moves. I had done it many times. This time I couldn't as I timely admitted:

Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} I'm managing my short position really badly.Out of synch with the movements. 1.203x is my next area to add to short.

From 1.203x we had significant down retr. as I anticipated. The mirage of a large win makes me increase position, eventually up to half the account. The original short is weighing down my average entry price. I do a bit of better BLashing and SHabling (Buy Low - Sell High). Price kisses my average position price a number of times (could have exited at BE or reduced position at small loss, many times)... and didn't. From then on stubborness and clouded judgement. Following up violation of 1.203x used the down to reduce and hedge... but then went net short again. By then also tired and annoyed. Took a break to also clear my head. The last down retr. to @1.20388 took some losses to balance but I didn't hedge even though by then I strongly suspected they were going to close at the high to create fear of gap up open.

My emotions prevailed over my judgement multiple times I could have or even did take the appropriate measures that would have contained or erased the loss. The less than effective blashing and shabling was a consequence of fear and wrong position sizing, misjudgment of limits of up down thrusts and relative retr. extents.

During the entire up progression I was oblivious to the many R levels broken (my R levels, or anybody's else's, for that matter).

Next Week.
After such a move as Friday's it is obvious that there are a number of participants with underwater positions. Price will move (be moved) to exploit this. What would induce people to give up and take their losses before going down? Possibly a few more PiPs higher and some quick 20 PiPs up and down. I'm going to watch my SR levels. It is unlikely price won't revisit soon 1.2 (roughly the level that the NFP thrust broke).
I am reconsidering my idea of down move incomplete, perhaps it is over.

Changes to my trading?
I'm reluctant to implement changes, such as hard stops, in the face of what are emotional issues that require emotional control responses. Except that hard stops are there to protect against emotional failures too... Three weeks ago I moved from pursuing home runs (emotionally too demanding and unstable returns) to seeking more stability lowering my position size and active position management. Week 3 of 2021: +12.5%; Week 4: +14.8%; Week 5 +16% (before Friday). I have been concerned about the stability of my method in the face of anomalous moves, for over one week. I essentially thought I'd be able to handle it. I wasn't. I emotionally overrode the appropriate measures considered or taken. I need to be more aware of my emotional status and of warning signs such as my blashing and shabling off after NFP. Must not try to turn a floating or recent loss into a big win (that smells of revenge trading). Heavy position is occasionally warranted upon strong signal and with tight SL, not out of spite or revenge.



Inserted Video
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #126,168
  • Feb 6, 2021 7:24am Feb 6, 2021 7:24am
Quick Daily S/R Levels for Monday

Our previous falling wedge might have expanded.. Now the lower edge sits around 1.1952..

I am marking 1.1990 area as future "nearest" support area and I am targeting a 1.2086/2133 zone as potential "sell zone" once/if we get there..

*My Cypher theory can only happen if mentioned resistance zone breaks.. No rush!

Based on H1 I will keep buying dips.. Enjoy your weekends folks
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #126,169
  • Feb 6, 2021 7:43am Feb 6, 2021 7:43am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
New hourly candle arrived.. 1.20195 is now nearest support and aggressive buy level.. Spike limit sits at 1.2052.. {image}

hi Ata

I a m trying to learn your system, but my great line is deferent than yours even though I used the same parameters you identified in the other "effortless thread"
notice the read circle please

did you change the parameters ?
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  • #126,170
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:03am Feb 6, 2021 8:03am
Quoting mrAjeeb
{quote} hi Ata I a m trying to learn your system, but my great line is deferent than yours even though I used the same parameters you identified in the other "effortless thread" notice the read circle please did you change the parameters ? {image}
This is the EURUSD thread and you shouldn't be asking questions here.. I stated it on the other thread.. Please read carefully.. Also read all the material carefully (since it is only 9 pages to dig into) and try to figure out with your own logic..

From here on I will not explain what I have already explained gazillion times.. I will only monitor the thread and post my levels and general thoughts.. Peace..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #126,171
  • Edited 8:31am Feb 6, 2021 8:19am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick Daily S/R Levels for Monday Our previous falling wedge might have expanded.. Now the lower edge sits around 1.1952.. I am marking 1.1990 area as future "nearest" support area and I am targeting a 1.2086/2133 zone as potential "sell zone" once/if we get there.. *My Cypher theory can only happen if mentioned resistance zone breaks.. No rush! Based on H1 I will keep buying dips.. Enjoy your weekends folks {image}
I think B more than 50% but im with you nearst support 1.1990
  • #126,172
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:21am Feb 6, 2021 8:21am
Quoting suthmo
{quote} I just checked in and see I got margin call. -66.26506024096386%. Bought at 1.2340? stopped out at 1.1967 wow And I'm buying it. No Analysis done yet. Your saying lower. Oh crap. haha. Can't even open MT4 it' got issues.
You got a margin call? That doesn't sound good.

It is likely that the ABC correction is completed. What is your most recent wave count?
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  • #126,173
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:35am Feb 6, 2021 8:35am
I believe the fundamentals are massive to reverse the weakness after the employment numbers and USD will keep getting stronger against EUR as Europe is a mess ... they do not have vaccines, Italy does not even have a government.
  • #126,174
  • Edited 9:10am Feb 6, 2021 8:41am | Edited 9:10am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} I think B more than 50% but im with you nearst support 1.1990
Maybe... but I really don't care much.. I basically rinse and repeat until bears come in.. Often based on H1 and occasionally based on M15..

*I hope Ziemowit notices this post.. My moving average setting for M15 is a wma 20 with shift:2 and also shifted 3 pips lower vertically..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #126,175
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:46am Feb 6, 2021 8:46am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} This is the EURUSD thread and you shouldn't be asking questions here.. I stated it on the other thread.. Please read carefully.. Also read all the material carefully (since it is only 9 pages to dig into) and try to figure out with your own logic.. From here on I will not explain what I have already explained gazillion times.. I will only monitor the thread and post my levels and general thoughts.. Peace..

Well , I just want to compare it with the chart you got .. I read the other thread and I came with this .. just wondered if parameters is changed ..

any way sorry for the bothering
  • #126,176
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:59am Feb 6, 2021 8:59am
Quoting mrAjeeb
{quote} Well , I just want to compare it with the chart you got .. I read the other thread and I came with this .. just wondered if parameters is changed .. any way sorry for the bothering
Don't try to be "me".. try to be "you".. I slightly change parameters back and forth depending on situation and so should you.. I encouraged people so many times to be free and to think free.. Always apply any method based on YOUR chart.. You are the master.. You must decide.. There are so many brokers with so many different numbers coming in to their servers that nothing can be "exact".. Learn to trust your guts and to alter things in your own understanding whenever you learn something new.. Cheers
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #126,177
  • Feb 6, 2021 9:12am Feb 6, 2021 9:12am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Don't try to be "me".. try to be "you".. I slightly change parameters back and forth depending on situation and so should you.. I encouraged people so many times to be free and to think free.. Always apply any method based on YOUR chart.. You are the master.. You must decide.. There are so many brokers with so many different numbers coming in to their servers that nothing can be "exact".. Learn to trust your guts and to alter things in your own understanding whenever you learn something new.. Cheers

thanks ata for the answer
  • #126,178
  • Feb 6, 2021 9:18am Feb 6, 2021 9:18am
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} Analysis. On Thursday I was up 16% on the week. Friday I lost nearly all the gains and closed up 2.6% on equity. I still have 12.5% of the account (400:1) short at 1.20254 (24 PiPs underwater). How did it happen? Start of day biased neutral but convinced down swing not over, so readying for an up retr. Being Friday I had in the back of my mind possible quick up-down swings (stops running). Started with Long (0.5% of account) to ride the up retr. Fully hedged and then out about 10 PiPs higher. Up around 2% for the day by mid session. Short...
Quote
Price kisses my average position price a number of times (could have exited at BE or reduced position at small loss, many times)...
and didn't
I think you have answered your dilemma. It is important to lock in trades quickly from my point of view and I am a medium to long-term trader. You are on the right track. I have multiple trades locked in and stopped out at b/e daily. It is the ones that survive, that become important to me. The market will take out trades. It is designed to do so. I call my trades that are not taken out, survivors.
It is a hard-fought battle, no inch given and no inch taken.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #126,179
  • Feb 6, 2021 9:23am Feb 6, 2021 9:23am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} many times[/i])... and didn't] I think you have answered your dilemma. It is important to lock in trades quickly from my point of view and I am a medium to long-term trader. You are on the right track. I have multiple trades locked in and stopped out at b/e daily. It is the ones that survive, that become important to me. The market will take out trades. It is designed to do so. I call my trades that are not taken out, survivors. It is a hard-fought battle, no inch given and no inch taken. Cheers.
I agree with you, we must to learn about minimum risk. Its important.
  • #126,180
  • Feb 6, 2021 9:52am Feb 6, 2021 9:52am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Maybe... but I really don't care much.. I basically rinse and repeat until bears come in.. Often based on H1 and occasionally based on M15.. *I hope Ziemowit notices this post.. My moving average setting for M15 is a wma 20 with shift:2 and also shifted 3 pips lower vertically.. {image}
yes noticed and will try it in coming weeks, many thanks Sir!!
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