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  • #126,121
  • Feb 5, 2021 8:57am Feb 5, 2021 8:57am
Quoting Kyuu
{quote} But I don't like having 30 pip stop losses because it just means your entry was probably poor and something could be improved.
Newbies and myself can learn a lot from that statement...however, I'm the exact opposite, I frequently remove my SL and take the drawdown, often to my demise! Yep still learning even after 10 years, but I tested this an 99% of the times the market always pulls back. its that 1% loss that will kill you.

Lesson is USE your STOP LOSSES guys and gals!
Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #126,122
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:09am Feb 5, 2021 9:09am
1.2029 Short triggered 6 pip SL, we either hold or we don't. Looks like my 1.203 would've been fine
  • #126,123
  • Edited 9:29am Feb 5, 2021 9:14am | Edited 9:29am
hopely engulf

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The Average Discount Everything
  • #126,124
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:17am Feb 5, 2021 9:17am
Reading how newbies misunderstand, misinterpret, misvalue, misjudge things is entertaining.. Loooong sip..

Anyways.. price is nearing daily resistance level 1.2036.. Careful the closer we get..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #126,125
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:25am Feb 5, 2021 9:25am
Quoting forextrini1
{quote} Newbies and myself can learn a lot from that statement...however, I'm the exact opposite, I frequently remove my SL and take the drawdown, often to my demise! Yep still learning even after 10 years, but I tested this an 99% of the times the market always pulls back. its that 1% loss that will kill you. Lesson is USE your STOP LOSSES guys and gals!
Having too tight of a SL will kill your winning trades, my biggest mistake is moving my SL to break even to "protect my trade". The reality is price can test the same price multiple times, I've been perfectly wicked out of massive winning trades because of it. In my opinion, a stop loss should be big enough to protect yourself from noise, but small enough that if you're wrong you can get out quickly. That way, I can maximize the margin I use on a trade.

It's so simple to say in theory, I need to perfect it in practice. Noise is different based on what time frame you're using. A trendline on a 15 min chart may break between 2-3 pips, a support line on a 4 Hour can break between 5-10, Daily can break between 5-15, etc.

That's what makes my stops different in size ^ you'll notice that when you draw basic support lines let's say on the weekly, it may break by like 20-30 pips for example which sounds huge, but is extremely small when looking at weekly candles. But if you use the same stop size, it would definitely stop you out. But when zoom into the 15 min chart, you'll notice that the 20-30 pip "noise" on the weekly support line is just the 3rd touch on a support line on the 15 min which might've been accurate to the pip. That's one example how I can use tight stops in my trading
  • #126,126
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:27am Feb 5, 2021 9:27am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Reading how newbies misunderstand, misinterpret, misvalue, misjudge things is entertaining.. Loooong sip.. Anyways.. price is nearing daily resistance level 1.2036.. Careful the closer we get..
Yeah.. I bailed out of my horrendous long just above break even +4 pips...I can finally breathe...its been a long 48 hours watching you sellers get this right..Time for a break and reset on the sidelines, it's Friday...another "rule" or "rule breaker" don't hold trades over the weekend. See ya'll next week!
Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #126,127
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:27am Feb 5, 2021 9:27am
But at the end of the day, this is how I trade. I like to trade potential points of reversals. Most big funds simply invest and hold long term with the trend and instead of using stops, they hedge or something in the opposite way to protect their capital. When Warren Buffet takes a $100,000,000 position in Apple, he doesn't think to himself "let's put a stop loss right there at the previous low"

Everyone has a different method, you choose the way that works best for you. My method was built for my own personality.
  • #126,128
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:34am Feb 5, 2021 9:34am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Guys, The big fat round number at 1.20000 beckons. It is all up to the big boyz now. Could we see a bounce from this level or a smash down? I am heading towards the end of my system cycle so will be careful to add more shorts. I hope the momentum can carry bears through. It just doesn't make sense for price to rebound here, but as we all know. The market will decide. I will update in due course. Trade safe. Cheers. {image}
Hi Guys,
It seems the forex gods will have their final say for this week. It is possible that we will have a weekly close above 1.20000. I am also at the beginning of a cyclic uptrend according to my system. It is possible that I will close some of my sell trades, but will monitor around the 1.20000 handle. Nothing much more to say but trade pullbacks in the cyclic direction.
Have a great weekend.
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #126,129
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:48am Feb 5, 2021 9:48am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Guys, It seems the forex gods will have their final say for this week. It is possible that we will have a weekly close above 1.20000. I am also at the beginning of a cyclic uptrend according to my system. It is possible that I will close some of my sell trades, but will monitor around the 1.20000 handle. Nothing much more to say but trade pullbacks in the cyclic direction. Have a great weekend. Cheers. {image}
Yeah its possible to long.
  • #126,130
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:51am Feb 5, 2021 9:51am
Quoting suthmo
Weekly degree Wave 7 down, sub wave Daily 7, sub sub Hourly 7 the 3rd degree hourly waves here are massively extended, The Primary degree outermost weekly wave is under extended but have seen this more and more lately in 6s and 5s. I think the only way is up. My wave counts can be wrong. Could be another 100+ pips for the bears.. I'm holding long. {image}
You rock it bro, I went short on this and stopped out but I put sl nearby.
Good catch
  • #126,131
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:00am Feb 5, 2021 10:00am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Reading how newbies misunderstand, misinterpret, misvalue, misjudge things is entertaining.. Loooong sip.. Anyways.. price is nearing daily resistance level 1.2036.. Careful the closer we get..
I can only say for myself - as a newbie without fixed strategy yet i relay on what you guys posts over here, your charts and analyses and improve my trading. So when something goes against main plan yes i am bit lost
  • #126,132
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:14am Feb 5, 2021 10:14am
Bit of a cup and handle thing going on, I don't trade them but.. there if you want it (Is it bullish or bearish??)

I am personally holding out for 1.2050ish before looking to short again, see what happens, out of Euro for now. Kind of annoying I had plenty of opportunities to close the day with a good profit on EUR but I'm currently flat, except for a trade I have going on another pair. So hopefully I can close out the week continuing a winning streak. It came down to impulse control (impulsively fading the NFP spike) rather than any analytical or execution flaws so I'm a bit disappointed in myself. Simply not even looking at my screen would have given me a mega profitable day, or even just grabbing 10 pips a couple of times on top of my overnight trade would have been very tidy. Fundamentally speaking I don't believe the dollar bull run is over and this is a pullback.
  • #126,133
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:23am Feb 5, 2021 10:23am
H1 Status Update

For my followers: Look how interesting situation is. Many think price can not go down anymore BUT notice where I cloned my Dashed-RED TL.. I can't clone it higher (yet) because there is still no higher close above last highest wick: 1.2024.. Try to see how robber banks create the illusion that bears have lost where actually price still can go all the way down to Agressive buy level 1.1980 (A)

Long story short: Always keep an eye on the most recent high of any spikes and long wicks!
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #126,134
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:28am Feb 5, 2021 10:28am
4H chart: I've drawn the 2 scenarios I expect over the next following days, I am betting on blue right now. The fact that the green upward support line did NOT hit is a HUGE red flag to me that we are prematurely going up. All I can do is hold my short and hope for the best, taking a lot longer than I thought it would to move. The final 4 Hour candle on Friday has always caused me pain, if this doesn't reject 1.203 hard by the time it hits 1 pm, banks have often just let price creep up on the last 4 hour to scare all shorts just to gap the market down on Monday which will eventually get filled in either of my scenarios. I hope that doesn't happen here
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  • #126,135
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:44am Feb 5, 2021 10:44am
My short got stopped at 1.20372 , this is some Friday shenanigans, I have a bad feeling I may have gotten stopped at the very possible top but also have a feeling today is gonna be unreasonably bullish at the same time. Gonna probably sit out until the 4 hour closes..

Edit: I have one more short order at 1.20464 with a 5 pip SL, I will manually close it if this 4 hour does not close beneath 1.203. If that loses, I'll look to short at 1.1063 where I expect a pull back to enter long. Looks like this is just prepping for next week
  • #126,136
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:53am Feb 5, 2021 10:53am
Quoting Kyuu
My short got stopped at 1.20372 , this is some Friday shenanigans, I have a bad feeling I may have gotten stopped at the very possible top but also have a feeling today is gonna be unreasonably bullish at the same time. Gonna probably sit out until the 4 hour closes.. Edit: I have one more short order at 1.20464 with a 5 pip SL, I will manually close it if this 4 hour does not close beneath 1.203. If that loses, I'll look to short at 1.1063 where I expect a pull back to enter long.
Probably only shorting from 1.205
  • #126,137
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:55am Feb 5, 2021 10:55am
Quoting xDREx
{quote} Probably only shorting from 1.205
I'm just watching this 15 min resistance line, I expect the third touch to drop or else I'm just wrong. If it takes long enough, it's pretty steep and can reach 1.205
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  • #126,138
  • Feb 5, 2021 10:56am Feb 5, 2021 10:56am
Just as I said one month ago: you just need enough cash and BIG cojones. Then your motto could be:

Trade on NF-Pay and go away
(come back next month, after enjoying life on the beach)

Edit: my cojones were rather small, went out with 1.4% today. Naja, better than red ;-)
  • #126,139
  • Feb 5, 2021 11:02am Feb 5, 2021 11:02am
New hourly candle arrived.. 1.20195 is now nearest support and aggressive buy level.. Spike limit sits at 1.2052..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #126,140
  • Feb 5, 2021 11:06am Feb 5, 2021 11:06am
Quoting tcmkhi
{quote} You rock it bro, I went short on this and stopped out but I put sl nearby. Good catch
It was a good day for bulls. I've been trapped upside down for weeks, forgot what a profit trade looks like haha. Now an ending diagonal I'm expecting drop from 1.2045 morning buy orders at 1967 closed up at 1.2019.

upper trend line comes in at 2048 I'm gonna dump on it.
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