Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

Here is an older example of using a Tick, V1 and V2 rapid vs gentle use of time as a measure of price approach ......

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And here's last night's setups using the same approach.....

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And here's another way to do it if you want/prefer to add stop orders into the mix.

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I hope that helps.

Peter

And these ones last night but admittedly I was busy so I wasn't paying as much attention to the research platform as I was to my live trades that setup. But, it'll give you some idea of style, positioning, timing, lot size if you are starting out and hopefully help you to recognize that structure is your friend when you use it properly.

I hope it helps.

Peter

hihihihihihihihehehehehehehe .........

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Hello!

I am new to this thread and hopefully you guys will allow me to post my views and trades here.
I trade mainly using PA and confluences and nothing else.
Green pips to all here and trade safe!

For me, I don't think I would have ever stayed with trading, if it wasn't for something called Concept Building. Many people I see coming into the field of trading, are rather literal in their thinking. Or they perhaps haven't had the chance to develop their creative thinking side.

Although people could do ok with just basic thinking in trading, it's surprising how much of what we learn as a trader, is also applicable in the real world in our day to day living. Concept building in full is not something you're born with usually. It needs time to develop and this usually happens when you are growing up. Most people I have ever met as grown ups, are either too intellectual or too emotive. This means either you think too literally and/or analytically in most situations, or you are too reactive/sensitive and quickly get defensive by misinterpreting what you are seeing, hearing, reading and what you feel happening around you.

I know many people think there's no place for this information in a thread about trading, but you couldn't be more wrong. If you do not understand at least a little about your own psychology, you are going to have a very difficult time trying to trade and to do it consistently. I know people here have had a hard time with some of the things I have pointed out or spoken about, however, the way I was taught to approach trading, is to think of it as a combination of the 100m sprint, the 400m hurdle and the 10km marathon. If there's weakness in any of those areas your trading activity will not have the natural staying power for longevity. You won't be able to adapt to the changes in the real world and possibly never find out the reason why. So if you've come across me saying anything about constant vs variable, part of this is related to making sure your trading has a future and is not too reliant on the latest fad indicator or EA etc.

So Concept Building in simple language, is the mental, emotional and practical process of teaching your mind, your emotions and your physical activities to work together. It requires all of these areas because a concept, or idea, in its earliest stage of development, is very raw and 'powerless'. So it needs you and you need it. And so a type of synergy is created. As you get better it gets better.

As a trader, if you cannot think creatively, even just a little, you will eventually get frustrated and either quit, or turn to options such as a trading signal service, a VPS style 'EA', blind systems trading or mechanical trading or something else like these. On the flipside of the coin, if you cannot problem solve enough, you may slide into depression or something like this believing its "you" that's the problem not the trading stuff.

So you need to begin in a way where its reasonably balanced. And then it's a little easier to keep to your plan.

Below is one of my favorite ways to remind myself of the different forms a concept can be approached. See how you go........................

"I say car and you say what brand comes to mind. I say house and you say what type you like best. I say movie and you say whichever genre you like best."

If you do this exercise with yourself every day, it stimulates your brain, your feelings, your memory and your body will also respond. Concept building is not just about theoretical stuff. As a trader you have to learn to adapt, adjust, learn, reflect, review, investigate. And you will need to learn new skills, of course.

Memorizing information is not enough. It's true that it takes some time to learn a new skill set. For some people they need 10,000 hours to reach that level. For others it's less or more. It's always individualized and if you know how to work WITH it, it will require less time.

Below is a bunch of pics you can look over and read and think about.





Peter

This is a simple little trade I did today that can illustrate many things. The challenge I put to YOU here, is to list as many identifiable characteristics that you see as pro and con. This is not about ego or pride or right or wrong, it's simply a way to uncover how you interpret something when you are not in control of the parameters or criteria. How many opinions does it bring out in you? How many judgments either in favor or against does it make you think about?

Before .....

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After ........

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Peter

When you get some time, I suggest you listen to this audiobook on Emotional Intelligence. Video available on Youtube free. But if for some reason, your country won't let you "watch it", then just let me know.

PS - I suggest as you listen you take notes. I'm sure you'll have many questions and since it's freely available, you can listen to it again.

Inserted Video

Peter

And here's the NZDUSD 4HR Chart of the trade above. Enjoy your pro and con evaluation.






Peter

There is a big difference between an idea/concept and a strategy or tactic or a trading plan.

Here's a list of some examples of something that I would call a concept/idea ...........

- Up/Down trend
- Sideways/Consolidated market movement
- Support and Resistance
- Supply and Demand
- Buy and Sell
- Global Market
- Intermarket
- Stock market
- Foreign Currency market
- Smart money and dumb money
- Market maker
- Market Algorithm
- Stop Hunts
- Risk on and off
... And many more.

Despite the fact that some of them have been brought from the idea stage to the realized stage and are now operating in the outside world, many people I have met or come across cannot distinguish between substance and fascination/obsession.

Most private individual traders, if they were to be truthfully serious and honest, are not in any way, equipped to operate inside the major financial markets. They have no choice than to sit on the outside and peer in the window and speculate as to what is going on.

And it is from this foundation, that speculation and conjecture tends to overrun people's ideas of reality.

Naturally the first step with any of this is to understand what a concept is in its basic form. For ease of reference and access, I will use Google's definition ...

Concept
noun

1. an abstract idea; a general notion.
   "structuralism is a difficult concept"
   Similar:
   idea, notion, conception, abstraction, conceptualization, theory, hypothesis, postulation, belief, conviction, opinion, view, image, impression, picture
   1. a plan or intention; a conception.
      "the center has kept firmly to its original concept"
   2. an idea or invention to help sell or publicize a commodity.
      "a new concept in corporate hospitality"

As you can see, it says nothing about being a fact or the truth of something. This is very important to note because I have found that many people enter into trading without understanding their own mind and how they think and how much emotional stability they possess.

So a basic idea is where most things begin in trading, just as in your own thinking. This is why some people like to trade one style over another. Or trade in one single direction over another.

How you think and process observations and ideas and information is most essential in trading. And how unbalanced you are as a person (mentally and emotionally), can strike a huge blow to people's trading efforts and activities both on the chart and off.

Some of the biggest challenges a normal everyday person faces when they enter into the field of trading are - basic ignorance, bad habits, poor work ethics, personal problems/limitations that usually get transferred from their private life to their trading efforts and activities. When you mash any 2 or more of these together, it can cause a lot of problems. This is why I am sharing this with whoever reads this. Yes you can say I don't know you and don't know your problems. However, we're all people. At some level, we've all experienced the same kinds of things. So it fits to speak of the pitfalls and try and make a bargain with ourselves to stop the cycle of self tragedy and self sabotage and try and really learn to be better, for ourselves and anyone in our lives.

But this only comes from being honest and mature enough to face each of your issues properly.

One particular issue that I haven't mentioned here so far, is rationalization. To rationalize something in your mind is to collect all selected bits of information and mix them in with your opinions, judgments, any prejudices and biases, pre-existing beliefs. Once you have basically thrown all of them into a blender then you have a mish-mash of ingredients that sometimes "agree" and will fit together like Lego blocks, but sometimes, they do not fit together and this creates bigger problems.

Sometimes this process can bring someone closer to some clarity and understanding, but if the person is not willing to accept some of the parameters of their "new found informational knowledge", then they will try to convince themself that A) They are not going crazy and B) They've thought things through well enough for it to "basically" make sense/be justified.

Naturally, this whole process comes from the assumption that their fundamental thinking has not been compromised by anything in their past or present. So just as with a child, the more you the parent say "No" the more the child wants to do/try it.

So re: trading - when you rationalize something instead of doing proper and open research that offers a well rounded awareness, you are basically conning yourself into believing something despite the fact that Life may be trying to show you other information that conflicts with what you currently think is "true".

So now, the other issue - cognitive dissonance. When you believe one thing even though the evidence, facts and overall big picture is showing something different. Many people choose not to change or grow and mature properly and this little bugger is the culprit at 60% of the time.

Concepts and concept building can be useful if they're applied in a way that enriches your life. The way this happens is to be more balanced in your approaches. One of THE biggest problems new and even veteran traders face, is the misuse of their opinion and beliefs. Either of or both of these can cripple a trader in ways that are not always seen until years later. So I felt it was very important to discuss them all here. At least to mention them and draw your attention to the realistic and truthful fact that trading has almost nothing to do with making money. This is merely a by-product of YOU. And if you don't "work" properly then your trading will falter and you will find it painfully difficult to learn and adapt as life on Earth changes around you.

I haven't written this to "convince you" of anything. Or to persuade or dissuade you in any way.

Everything I have spoken about here is real and has been tested and proven to be accurate by me and can be verified by thorough observation and a little time to study some basics such as the difference between the human condition and core human nature. And it is also reflected in my trading effort and activities.

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I hope you find this helpful.

Peter

FILTERING MARKET NOISE IS THE KEY TO CONSISTENT TRADING WITH PROFIT

I like your approach to learning. You have great ability to filter noise.
If you apply it to your trading, you will be a consistently profitable trader.

As a former financial journalist I made money from personal investments purely based on a sense of history I had developed while working for newspapers including Wall Street Journal.

I ignored market noise all through and listened to my brain. It worked well.

I had not covered financial trading markets as a journalist.

When I started trading forex and indices I realised it is not a mall where a group of shopkeepers join hands to manipulate prices. It has own auction market system, liquidity suppliers, buyers, sell-side and buy-side analysts and a global market dominated by around 10 big liquidity suppliers. With no previous experience in dealing with such a market I decided to focus only on mastering self-directed transactions execution process and studying repeatable patterns so that I can identify while trading live and make use of them.

Lack of Excel knowledge did not hamper my pursuit for getting statistics.

I find you also follow this approach. It is from people like you who believed in statistics, I got big help.

Next, in order not to get overwhelmed by information, I stuck to my way of using the sense of history model to feed my brain with filtered information.
I looked around for 5-6 experts having at least 15 years experience of analysing speculation markets and assets. Much to my surprise, I found the information free of cost.

I understand fundamentals well because of my old professional training and commerce education. I learned that Financial trading markets use them mostly as entry triggers at micro level. But fundamentals do work at macro level. By talking to friends working for a few brokers, I found out the existence of various books and plug-ins that helped brokers and liquidity providers protect their bottom lines. This information helped me steer clear of MT4 brokers and I opened an account with Interactive Brokers and traded futures mostly.

Having understood the peculiarities of operating in a speculation market, I decided not to waste time on predicting the market. I just have to react to market forces releasing and drying up liquidity.

Now I feed my brain with views of selected experts and my findings collected from probability studies done and let my mind decide what to do.
I arranged sufficient money that can meet drawdowns from time to time and at the same time is not going to affect my life-style in case I lose money.
A sort of holistic approach to taking and managing risk.

PeterCaleb is supplying me information on the missing links in my pursuit of making money consistently from Speculation markets. I have not seen material of such high caliber elsewhere available free of cost and at my favoured FF forum . I am glad he is back .

morning coffee money

No hedging for this system, just scalp for some daily expenses.
Test water with some soldiers, if soldiers only received light slap then send advance force.
There is 1, only 1 hedging expert in FF, which choose to stay in the commercial thread.

Yes, heard about him if I'm not wrong read his story about selling his system long time ago(not on this forum). I've not followed his thread so don't know how he does it. This group was originally on another thread that ended after the OP binned her thread. Don't know the reason why?

If you really like to read long, long, super long and good solid writing in FF - Bionics

This is what he is writing:
40 important theses for my personal success.
1 There are no typical trends, only movements that result from the current market situation.
2. Downward movements are on average 40% faster than upward movements.
3. Acoustic signals can be perceived 20 times faster than optical signals
4. Although market orders move the market, limit orders dominate the market.
5. Volume and liquidity determine the volatility, the spread and the risk.
6. My deciding factor are the pips per minute.
7. Volume trading is ineffective in both the forex and futures markets
8. The spread is higher in upward movements than in downward movements.
9. The overall risk in the forex market is significantly lower than in the future market.
10. Virtual stops help in Forex to reduce the manipulation of the broker.
11. Currency strengths are more reliable in the forex market.
12. Best of the information is obtained from time and volume independent charts.
13. The equilibrium between best ask and best bid is crucial.
14. If you want to be successful in this market, you need the right technical equipment. (Internet, workstation, screens and software)
15. A successful trader needs to know exactly how the market works. (DoM, Times & Sales List)
16. Every trader should determine his optimal currency pair in order to achieve the highest profit probability.
17. Money management is an important fine-tuning to optimize profits, but it is more crucial to get in and out at the right time.
18. News and price are completely irrelevant to profits.
19. An indicator in Forex primarily only translates the price with a different representation, but has the disadvantage of being lagging.
20. With the identification of the algorithms, one can see into the future for a few milliseconds.
21. The shorter the length of stay in the market, the lower the risk of being stopped out by smaller breakouts.
22. There are no patterns in the price, the candles or the display of indicators.
23. The market makes the news and not the other way around.
24. In 30% of the time there is movement, 70% of the time the market is in an equilibrium.
25. Forex and stock market data must be combined in order to achieve the highest probability of winning.
26. Concentrating on one currency pair is most efficient.
27. Success in trading depends on the effective screen time.
28. It is easier to focus on the 12 biggest big players than on 1 million retail traders.
29. Due to the different algorithms, market technology is now out of date.
30. Smaller iceberg orders dominate the markets today.
31. The retail trader's stops are the most important point to fill the liquidity of the big players.
32. The horizontal and vertical delta limit are a decisive factor in the stock market.
33. Bid and Ask do not decide on the future course of the price, only the Limit orders reach that.
34. There are 2 different bulls and bears fighting each other in the market.
35. The probability of winning in the forex market is 3 times greater with stock market data, than only with forex data.
36. Candles do not give any information about the future price development.
37. There is no top or bottom in the market, so the price is unimportant.
38. Since we retail traders cannot influence the price, we have to let the big players pull us in the right direction.
39. One should trade in the market, where the most sales are made.
40. The big players always work with a similar approach.

I highlighted those I totally agree and cancelled those I don't.
Please don't argue about this here. I just simply point you to the right resources for good reading.

RickM won't agree with this.

PART 2 – The 3 Limit Orders Approach – Near, To and Beyond & Tick, Volume and Market Activity

In simple terms, it’s a way to measure a number of factors so you can operate independently from outside influences. It displays a way to use the market activity to gauge tick weights, entry volume weights and contract volume without any indicators. Another way to approach it, would be as a rapid vs gentle use of time as a measure of price. Since "everyone" is using either time, price or both to follow their market of choice and find an opening to profit from the activity.

By using a static "ruler" (the 3 limit orders spaced out), you can observe the result of that Tick, by using a LTF move where you gauge transactional volume (Not the same as total 'lots' for eg in Spot FX or total count of the size of contracts in Futures etc) eg where there is greater pull from Limits or Market orders.

This is why, if you are being objective with your trading, you cannot separate Tick, transactional volume and total accumulated volume. They each play a part in the formal process of active trading, therefore, they support each other’s perspective to show more of ‘reality’.

Since I have already explained and described the basics of Tick, Transactional Tick and Total Accumulated Volume …. I will now move on to the next stage.

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Tick weights = Buy (Up) Ticks and Sell (Down) Ticks. Buy vs Sell. You must train your mind to think in relative forms. This is the way a trader observes and sees risk and opportunity. Each of the white and red arrows I have put on the chart provided are pointing to examples of observed Tick totals (for a single TF period) of Buys and Sells compared to each other. This particular indicator shows buys and sells overlapped (Blue and Red), so if you only see one colour, then it means there is equal to or more buys or sells compared to its opposite. I have setup this Tick Totality indicator to show both buy and sell together but you can also set up 2 instances of this indicator to be buy only and sell only.

With using Tick Weight, there are 3 options – Strong Buy, Strong Sell and generally equal.

Entry volume weights = The easiest way to explain this is by asking you to imagine the following options – enter a trade at one end of the period bar, enter a trade in the middle of the period bar, enter a trade at the other end of the period bar. Beginning, middle, end of that period bar.

In trading in reality, there are few absolutes. So that leaves the grey areas. Entry volume is based on the concept of “The Game of Pass the Baton”. My experience has shown and taught me that paid or free data access is always a grey area. Why? If a person tries to use it blindly as an anchor for trading, you are risking a lot on something you have no true way to verify, in and of itself. But there IS in fact a way to determine IF and when it can be ‘trusted’. In walks the Entry volume weights. By learning how most other traders think, and therefore, like to view and maybe even place orders, it becomes 10x easier to determine many things. Allow me to explain.

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Seeing as all traders essentially only make money from up or down on Price and /or forwards on Time, it’s simple enough to make the safe assumption that some people are going to follow price more or time more.

A simple exercise will suffice to explore this and show you that people who learn from each other leave ‘tells’ everywhere. And why a genuine professional trader is usually a well rounded, well informed person who can, in a way, ‘tell the future’ by seeing what has changed vs what has not. Unfortunately, majority of ‘retail traders’ tend to remain in the same ‘pool’ of thinking because they don’t ask one question – “What has changed and what has not changed?” You might think that I’m mistaken about this, however, once you become more honest about what you observe and how you observe it, you will see that you possibly have not been going far enough in your evaluations.

On the chart you will see the arrows I drew pointing to different looking periods. Now, depending on a person’s perception and their strategy, they will either enter or not enter on or after these specific periods.

Two questions now arise – Why would they do this? What aren’t they seeing?

Perception is everything in trading. So now I will draw your attention to the white histogram indicator on the chart. It is simply a 1 Period ATR histogram indication of the chart you’re looking at. I will assume here that you do not know how to use a histogram representation as this will be easier to begin.

A histogram has 3 basic options – very small, medium and large. This one is period to period and moves along with the market on a time to time schedule. Comparatively, it reflects a different idea of use than the Blue-Red Tick indicator. But it can still only do small, medium and large representations. A histogram like this 1P ATR is useful for finding fault in the Tick indicator and to observe discrepancies between the chart, Tick and “perceived” activity. Very important here to stress the word “perceived”. It can be rather deceiving at times to look at market activity that has several small body periods forming then you see a ‘larger’ period form. The eyes can play tricks on your mind and you may think the ‘larger’ period is more important than it REALLY is.

On the chart I have shared here, different periods can show smaller body/wick yet be far more important than a big period. Much of the back building happens during these small bars. And much of the “other activity” happens during the larger, more obvious bars. It’s essential to understand that market activity of all kinds each have a reason and purpose.

So REAL price action is about all flows IN and all flows OUT. And the more ‘selective’ or prejudiced you are about what you learn and use, the more this will negatively affect your ability to adapt and change as the world ultimately changes.

Contract volume = Using your understanding of how YOU see the market and trade it, is a great way to work out how to ‘fill your cup” with the knowledge of how everyone sees the market and how they tend to trade. This area is not exactly about the volume of contracts, but more about the perceived intent of how BIG or committed any trader may be in a specific situation. So anyone who thinks this to be about an actual total of contracts, please understand, that at present FX is a decentralized asset class and certain information is not made lawfully public. Understanding how big YOU might get into “that trade” is a powerful way to look into a situation and assume little to nothing, organize your thoughts about what you would do and then simply address the obvious issue – what else “would” I need to know to do all three trades available - Beginning, middle, end of that period bar?

Whenever the market makes a dash for the outer extremes of price, relative to its basic movement, it essentially only has 4 choices – full reversal, partial reversal then full reversal, multiple partial reversals then full reversal and a complete breakout of known extremes. You may know them as ‘price patterns’. If you detach yourself from “chasing patterns” and just observe their natural movements, you will see certain repetitive activity. The mistake here, is to assume that all price movement is based solely on the market “looking for liquidity stops” etc.

Sometimes there’s simply a space on the flow that has little or no active interest. And this creates “pushes”, not gaps in price, but a probe and a push to generate a way for the market to move on. You can see this if you place a limit order at price extremes as well as a stop entry order far beyond current market value. It is YOUR observation here that teaches you HOW the market moves, not necessarily the orders you placed on their own. They merely operate as a frame for what you will observe. This current market value must have a pre-deterministic range otherwise the market could fly off into an uncontrollable flux of activity and this would devastate the “status quo” of perceived norms. So part of all this is expectations and part of it is self-detailed control.

The two must be together for “the market” to keep “moving forward”. These have always been the dynamics at work in these somewhat intangible markets. On the flipside, this is why we have different trade styles – trend, swing, momentum and scalp. I’m explaining all this because if you believe a story, then it is that story that determines all your actions and activity. Yet the story has no compassion for your losses and doesn’t need to explain itself.

So now look at the chart with the 3 limits on it. I have provided 3 pictures – H1, M15 and M5 views of that same situation. Although you step down from a big picture view to a small view, the 3 arrows from the pre-placed limit orders remain in the same position. This is helpful to frame a constant up against the varying chart view and perspective of what you “think” is happening. Once you appreciate the different ways the market moves around at extremes you can then apply your knowledge and understanding of basic market activity, basic knowledge of how you and others trade, the noted accumulated strength and weakness of different movements and the types of entry management used.

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All of these ingredients together can show trade interest, volume interest and accumulated desire. Whether people would prefer to ‘trend trade’ a move, momentum trade it or jump in and scalp it and then jump out.

There is a learning curve to this approach. And granted I have used indicators here to display specific information for you to reference. However, after some time and practice, you will no longer need indicators because you have done something an indicator cannot – you have learned. This knowledge becomes part of you and will help you adapt as things change.

A Side note = The most imperative thing in trading is risk awareness THEN risk management THEN feasible profitability.

*** Whether you’re a beginner, intermediary or veteran of trading, one thing needs to be clarified here – Nothing is certain in trading except Price goes up and down and Time is used as a reflective measure of the decay of each price point’s ‘perceived’ relevance and importance. And so while some assumptions are foundational and are ever-present, others lead to forming a premise that generates a ‘House of cards’ for the trader. Believing any trade setup is a ‘sure thing’ is a fool’s errand. The only ‘risk free’ trades with real money, I have ever seen or done myself, are the ones that reflect the same principles of a value trade mixed with a ‘Profit-On-Profit Approach’. In this way, you risk very little for a much larger gain. But even this is not 100% guaranteed.

So now, when you put it all together, you can create your map or overview of what’s going on. Part of what you know and understand is in your head and part of it is on the chart. Realizing and remembering that all of this is just a representation and is NOT always 100% “…..”, it frees you to apply the 3 Limits Approach. As I have said, in an ever changing environment it is necessary to use something static to help measure what you see.

One of the most basic things to remember when using this approach, is that when you see price make a move beyond the recent past activity, someone is getting in and someone is getting out.

Some people or many people like to use indicators. And if you asked them to be honest, they’d probably tell you they use them because they’re a bit lazy or complacent. An indicator really should never replace your mind, its bad form. An indicator’s job needs to be where you are busy with human things, to allow it to show what would normally be too complex for you to do yourself. However, what I have just explained and described relating to the 3 Limits approach, is not complex, it just requires attention and practice. No laziness need apply.

I hope this helps.

Peter

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PeterCaleb Forex Factory 8-2-2021.pdf   7.7 MB | 465 downloads

5. Volume and liquidity determine the volatility, the spread and the risk.
This is the important part.

Actually much more than a few milliseconds.

First time someone write that so explicitly on forum. Yet traders are still using old stuck in dinosaur time technical analysis ideas with no update. 8G is here already.

I certainly don’t agree.

I have discussed a few things with Michael and enjoy his high quality thread.

Liquidity is just clusters of orders that sit on a chart doing nothing, they are not important.
What is important is the density of aggressive market orders that are applied to attack these clusters. We need to watch whether buyers volume is efficient in its upwards expansion of price or whether it’s inefficient and wasteful.
So I want to see LOW volume always moving price, not HIGH volume moving price.

I like to trade when the battle is won, not during the duet when life is in the balance. So always trade in Thin Liquidity after either the Buyers or Sellers have six bullets in their head.

How do we know if it’s the buyer or seller with 6 billets in there here - I look for collapsing volume producing efficient expansion.

Cheers

I gonna agree with you on that because I am no expert in volume. I had try to watch volume from here - GBPUSD. So far I cannot see how best to incorporate into my system. But I'm still live recording it, and try to get something out of it.

BTW if you look at GBPUSD now, it is at 70% of the time the market is in an equilibrium, try scalp now you will get wick up and down.

I've tried it, can't make any meaningful connection.