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Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

  • #1,181
  • Jan 29, 2021 4:40pm Jan 29, 2021 4:40pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} After that hold investment seminar, talk cock sing song.
I rather go fishing and do some cooking.
  • #1,182
  • Jan 29, 2021 4:44pm Jan 29, 2021 4:44pm
Quoting TimeTells
In that sense I would be like you, yes, and have NO narrative, rather than a changing narrative. Trade it as it is
The reason I have no narrative is because we DON'T KNOW. Maybe I'm in the kindergarten level, stupid class to think this way.

I read on forum long popular threads of OP telling grandmother story narrative. NONE of the devotees ask the simple logical question, "how do you know, sir?"

Why nobody ask such a simple obvious logical question?
Instead they swallow wholesale the fake made up narrative then regurgitate it everywhere eventually it becomes real. If you don't believe you must be stupid, uneducated, noob or loser. The forum mob impose this on us. Followed by the usual forum fights, the drama like soap opera full of fun and entertainment.

It's really strange, very very weird to me.
Know what you trade
  • #1,183
  • Jan 29, 2021 4:45pm Jan 29, 2021 4:45pm
Quoting failinforex
{quote} box those infection and draw a 50% line.

I love the 50% line Failin.

Here's my personal take on it, because I think it (the 50%) is Fractal on all TFs. (Right down to the 1m for short periods also it seems)


I remember when starting my currency trading the books said wait for a 50% retrace, and I thought "why would it retrace to 50%?".


I conclude now (in my own personal way of course), and for whatever reason, that the market likes 50% because at that point ALL the shorts and ALL the longs (still holding) are 'trapped if you like' and waiting for some movement to happen. Waiting & Patience (especially in DD OR profit) will test any trader lol.

And when price 'waits' some traders scramble, some close, some new will enter AND off we go again.


No one wins and no one loses (if they hold their trade) when the market is stationary.

That's why I like that Inflection Zone.

Which is only what others wish to call accumulation, ranging I guess, just terms and what BW said about narratives.


With inflection I look at it as (once confirmed of course, whipsaws are a b!tch) a point where the direction changes, one way OR the other.

A pic might explain better than my words.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: inflection point.jpeg Size: 41 KB
  • #1,184
  • Jan 29, 2021 4:54pm Jan 29, 2021 4:54pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The reason I have no narrative is because we DON'T KNOW. Maybe I'm in the kindergarten level, stupid class. I read on forum long popular threads of OP telling grandmother story narrative. NONE of the devotees ask the simple logical question, "how do you know, sir?" Why nobody ask such a simple obvious logical question? Instead they swallow wholesale the fake made up narrative then regurgitate it everywhere eventually it becomes real. If you don't believe you must be stupid, uneducated, noob or loser. The forum mob impose this on us. Followed...

Hi BW,

Narratives and their use are quite deep in human psyche I beleive. Right back to the beginnings.

It serves community best if all the community/groups etc follow the same narrative. Things get achieved more timely and progress is made.

Until the next narrative comes along.

Think science. Especially physics etc. We needed some forward thinker to come along with an "explainable" narrative that served to encompass (ie Einstein).

But narratives change. People get confused upset groups argue etc.

With Forex I accept your comment, We Dont Know.

I confess to having a narrative in my head when I trade. It is not for discussion for the very reasons you have mentioned.

But if I keep it consistent, then my trading "appears" more sound (to me).

In the future I might dump that narrative (comfort blanket whatever), but at the moment it helps.

Then I can just trade it as I see it, that is all.
  • #1,185
  • Jan 29, 2021 4:55pm Jan 29, 2021 4:55pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} I love the 50% line Failin. Here's my personal take on it, because I think it (the 50%) is Fractal on all TFs. (Right down to the 1m for short periods also it seems) I remember when starting my currency trading the books said wait for a 50% retrace, and I thought "why would it retrace to 50%?". I conclude now (in my own personal way of course), and for whatever reason, that the market likes 50% because at that point ALL the shorts and ALL the longs (still holding) are 'trapped if you like' and waiting for some movement to happen. Waiting...
Actually broker play around with 3 percentages, 37.5%, 50% and 62.5%. Broker cannot use 50% everytime, then traders know the trick. So they cause comfusion rotating among this 3 numbers. Whipsaw is to cause further confusion till the no patience traders give up. Its all fake to cause illusion that plays with the traders mind. Manipulate greed and fear. To click the trade button or not? There's always this possibility of reversal to trap traders which the broker use sometimes in a cat and mouse game.

It's funny to read when FF members write about demand and supply that move price some economics theory when it's just the broker painting our charts. Lots of weird narrative I can't help laughing, sorry. These guys sound so real and serious with their write ups. Strange nobody ask "how do you know such and such" in a nameless faceless chart.
Know what you trade
  • #1,186
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:01pm Jan 29, 2021 5:01pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Actually broker play around with 3 percentages, 37.5%, 50% and 62.5%. Broker cannot use 50% everytime, then traders know the trick. So they cause comfusion rotating among this 3 numbers. Whipsaw is to cause further confusion till the no patience traders give up. Its all fake to cause illusion that plays with the traders mind. Manipulate greed and fear. To click the trade button or not?

Cheers, I know you do your maths and dig deep, I will look.

You might be surprised to know that it is my field in a small way also. But not in Forex .


I used data extensively for over 15 years on Australian Thoroughbred Horseracing when quantifying the performance of each horse in each race they had contested for individual 'ratings', and then combined also with rating each race differently, allowed me to then make “probabilistic predictions” for future races (in the form of %%% which I converted to hard odds for intended speculation).


And YES, I never quite got into Supply & Demand (or S/R) due to my unwanted question.

Who is doing the supplying and who is doing the demanding and how can we prove this?


With Forex I just like to look at the biggest picture and find a place in the middle of happenings to eke out some pips.
  • #1,187
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:07pm Jan 29, 2021 5:07pm
Quoting TimeTells
I used data extensively for over 15 years on Australian Thoroughbred Horseracing when quantifying the performance of each horse in each race they had contested for individual 'ratings', and then combined also with rating each race differently, allowed me to then make “probabilistic predictions” for future races (in the form of %%% which I converted to hard odds for intended speculation)
Man you touch my soft spot. Winx the beauty that she is when she starts her run round the home turn passing one by one as if the rest were walking. The best pic when she's in full flight.

Harness racing gives solid thrill. Blacks a fake, Somebeachsomewhere, SmokenUp....... Man its thrilling and exciting. Best sports in the world to lose some money. Inter Dominion better than Melbourne Cup imho.
Know what you trade
  • #1,188
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:16pm Jan 29, 2021 5:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Man you touch my soft spot.

Winx the beauty that she is when she starts her run round the home turn passing one by one as if they were walking.
The best pic when she's in full flight. Harness racing gives solid thrill. Blacks, a fake, Somebeachsomewhere....... Man its thrilling and exciting.

Winx.

Wow, what a beautiful morning for me BW, cheers.

Yes she was sublime.

I won't go into detail as it is way off topic but within my data usage were primarily weight carried, margin beaten (converted to kgs), dist preference, current jockey (abilitites), and Race Interference (also had to be converted to kgs).

Then along came a horse in the 80's who was my champ, The King, Kingston Town.

I watched him race and he did something different at the meaty end of the race. SAME as Winx, it was something just different to the others.


So how do you quantify that I thought?

So I had a separate data field for what I called the "acceleration factor" AF (just a narrative lol) and included that for certain special horses.

In the end (my obsessiveness lol) I then broke down this AF factor down into grades of acceleration that different horses exhibited (A1, A2 A3, A++ etc).

Winx, who broke Kingston Town's amazing record of 3 Cox Plates by winning her fourth was a joy to watch in flight.

all the best, BW, thx
  • #1,189
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:36pm Jan 29, 2021 5:36pm
Lol BW where did your post go

Not offensive at all.


It wasn't weekends I did it, they also raced midweek as well lol. In the end I had to watch video replays over and over.

Demanding, but data is fun (and yes addictive I guess).

I haven't speculated on horse racing now for 5 years.

Since the manipulators came in fully and destroyed the pure data.

Such is life.
  • #1,190
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:37pm Jan 29, 2021 5:37pm
Quoting limprobable
{quote} Constant or not ? Long time ago i consider trading like a problem to solve. I write all the paradox on paper and try to solve each one. For me trading was solving paradox. From the simpliest to complex ones. There are hundred. For example : - Buy/sell - Up/down - Right/left - Real Time/trading time - I see an up candle on 4h Tf and a down candle on 1hTF - Both buyers and sellers on a candle can be winner on the next candle - I see a range market on 4h and a trend market on 15 mn - Some resistance/support works another don’t - Some indicators...


Great. Keep doing that if it's working for you.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,191
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:42pm Jan 29, 2021 5:42pm
Quoting TimeTells
Lol BW where did your post go Not offensive at all. It wasn't weekends I did it, they also raced midweek as well lol. In the end I had to watch video replays over and over. Demanding, but data is fun (and yes addictive I guess). I haven't speculated on horse racing now for 5 years. Since the manipulators came in fully and destroyed the pure data. Such is life.
Don't want to write too much about off-topic.
Watch replays to look for clues is addiction.

Same with forex screen staring. Execute 100trades a day. Man, that makes trading pretty tough to do with all eyes glued to the screen. 2 trades for 20-25pips each is enough. Don't get addicted. Detox. Detox. Detox.

Imagine traders walk to their neighbourhood grocer to buy banana. 100times a day. That's madness. Twice a day is for our exercise routine.
Know what you trade
  • #1,192
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:43pm Jan 29, 2021 5:43pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} {image}{image}


Sorry. I said concrete proof. All of "that" is just "perceived justification". It's simply about looking at something and making up a story to fit the picture and some activity. Maybe you prefer having a story to follow. If you do that's fine.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,193
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:45pm Jan 29, 2021 5:45pm
Quoting Profitgrowth
{quote} "I prefer to work with (as much as possible) the types of tools that work minimum 80-90% of the time or greater" So... what are these tools?


Now you're just stabbing recklessly in the dark. If you don't have any common sense you'll never to find out. Open your eyes.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,194
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:52pm Jan 29, 2021 5:52pm
Quoting Barraka
{quote} Hi Peter, I've been reading through this thread, and have a few questions on some charts that you've posted. If you don't mind, could you clarify the concepts you're trying to communicate here? {image} Image 1: I can't seem to understand what those boxes represent: 25% in price is as big as 50%, and in terms of time it's the same thing, at least for the first 2 numbers on the left. And on the right, well same thing I have no idea what those % are supposed to represent. {image} Image 2: The vertical (angled) lines seem to be measured moves,...


Barraka,

A picture is worth BOTH a thousand words AND 100 stories. If you want to be a trader, you need to think for yourself. Make a list of EVERY interpretation you can think of OK. Later you'll understand why. You're not in grade school anymore, in certain contexts there is NO "right answer". Until you understand this, you will remain perplexed because that brain of yours is getting soft. Think concept instead of answer.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,195
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:56pm Jan 29, 2021 5:56pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Don't want to write too much about off-topic. Watch replays to look for clues is addiction. Same with forex screen staring. Execute 100trades a day. Man, that makes trading pretty tough to do with all eyes glued to the screen. 2 trades for 20-25pips each is enough. Don't get addicted. Detox. Detox. Detox. Imagine traders walk to their neighbourhood grocer to buy banana. 100times a day. That's madness. Twice a day is for our exercise routine.

Yep, agree, I do 3 trades a day on average, 1-2 in Asia, and/or 1-2 again Franky/London, then out.

I used to do NY (which is 11pm in Bris now, 10pm when NO daylight savings).

The problem was not 'entering' a trade in NY.

It was closing it. As I baby-sit ALL trades.

So if no profit early it can drag on and on into the early mornings.

I did all-nighters (crazy) when I was learning.

I detoxed all that away. Keep it simple is my motto.

Maybe if I was in my 30's I'd go hard
  • #1,196
  • Jan 29, 2021 5:58pm Jan 29, 2021 5:58pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Illusion, computer game..yep. Just a programmed algorithm. Caleb likes to bullshit with rocket science, and bullshit it is.


moodybot,

Don't be a clown. Regardless of whether it IS in fact an "algo" running things ..... What are YOU going to personally do about it? Go and find the "Algo" and destroy it? No. So grow up. Grow some balls and be a man. Enough with the storytelling excuses and deflections away from your own ignorance.

People who hide behind stories are just children who haven't finished growing up. So do yourself a favor and grow up. Or don't and remain a schmuck.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,197
  • Jan 29, 2021 6:02pm Jan 29, 2021 6:02pm
Quoting TimeTells
Yep, agree, I do 3 trades a day on average, 1-2 in Asia, and/or 1-2 again Franky/London, then out. I used to do NY (which is 11pm in Bris now, 10pm when NO daylight savings). The problem was not 'entering' a trade in NY. It was closing it. As I baby-sit ALL trades. So if no profit early it can drag on and on into the early mornings. I did all-nighters (crazy) when I was learning. I detoxed all that away. Keep it simple is my motto. Maybe if I was in my 30's I'd go hard
When I started in my 30s I would be in the bucket shop from Franky to NY close. About 16hours screen staring every trading day. Those were the crazy years. That's why I tell people don't screen stare, it's an addiction. After they done it few years with their regular buddies in the "cave", mine was the bucket shop, they wake up one day to realise all the time lost in the "cave". I was lucky the government closed those bucket shops.

Quoting TimeTells
Yep, agree, I do 3 trades a day on average, 1-2 in Asia, and/or 1-2 again Franky/London, then out. I used to do NY (which is 11pm in Bris now, 10pm when NO daylight savings). The problem was not 'entering' a trade in NY. It was closing it. As I baby-sit ALL trades. So if no profit early it can drag on and on into the early mornings. I did all-nighters (crazy) when I was learning. I detoxed all that away. Keep it simple is my motto. Maybe if I was in my 30's I'd go hard
You live in the time zone perfect for scalping and small swings. Start from Aussie open. 2hours before NY open you're done. The best time zone for forex trading. NY market is for adrenalin rush gamblers, their daily dopamine dose.
Know what you trade
  • #1,198
  • Jan 29, 2021 6:37pm Jan 29, 2021 6:37pm
When a person allows their thinking and beliefs to become too super-specialized, they will always struggle to successfully adapt to their new environment.

So if you are too rigid and stubborn when relating to your beliefs and habits about your trading, the financial markets and the world at large, you will have a lot of trouble keeping up with the changes.

This is why I am so hard on people here when talking about stories, perceptions and beliefs. If you lack the full life experience to appreciate real life for what it truly is, then you cannot learn anything that will help you be better and do better.

Maybe this will help explain some things and answer a few questions.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,199
  • Jan 29, 2021 6:55pm Jan 29, 2021 6:55pm
One more important point. Our mt4 trading platform is designed to cast the illusion on us. Most veteran traders after having spent countless hours screen staring still don't realise this flaw.

Take few hours this weekend. Just stare at the mt4 platform. See if you can identify the illusion that I wrote here. It's right under your nose that happen every trading day. Yet most traders don't see it. That's grand illusion.

If the trader doesn't adjust his platform to cater for the illusion he's taken for a ride without realising it.
Know what you trade
  • #1,200
  • Jan 29, 2021 6:56pm Jan 29, 2021 6:56pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Don't want to write too much about off-topic. Watch replays to look for clues is addiction. Same with forex screen staring. Execute 100trades a day. Man, that makes trading pretty tough to do with all eyes glued to the screen. 2 trades for 20-25pips each is enough. Don't get addicted. Detox. Detox. Detox. Imagine traders walk to their neighbourhood grocer to buy banana. 100times a day. That's madness. Twice a day is for our exercise routine.
Taking 100 trades is not madness, it’s work.
Try telling that to a delivery drive who has 159 parcels in his truck.

”Mate you are mad”

He will say “ I have three kids to feed”.

Trading is about aiming for daily or monthly profit targets, pips don’t matter.

I prefer 100 smiles on my face than 2 or 3.
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