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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,041
  • Mar 18, 2020 5:55pm Mar 18, 2020 5:55pm
Quoting caldera
GBPUSD Weekly: {image} {image}
I just remembered I posted thus on 15 October 2019...
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  • #1,042
  • Oct 23, 2020 8:44pm Oct 23, 2020 8:44pm
Quoting stringfx
Cot data was published yesterday and here is my take on it. Posting last week and this week's analysis. Try comparing it and make decisions. {image}
Hi There,

I am interested in the data you published...what is your source to this data?

Cheers
Jeff
Happily Married to MY College Sweet Heart!
  • #1,043
  • Jan 10, 2021 10:53pm Jan 10, 2021 10:53pm
It's been a long time that i've posted anything in FF. with the current pandemic, there's not a lot to do other than sit in front of a system and speculate at least for someone like me who has been in the markets for donkeys years lol.

anyway ... starting with DXY,

with the trump admin gone almost... and the arrival of legitimate vaccine, dollar has finally put it's head out of the hole that it's been since march of last year. although, i do not believe that dollar is still out of the woods yet, but for a short term (3 months), we will definitely get a correction to 38.2 of the entire bear run.
Presumably it's only starting out now. Minor wave endings will be going on with small corrections to the downside (prompting people to buy other pairs). it would be better to sell rallies of corresponding us dollar pairs like gbp/usd, eur/usd and buying pairs like usd/cad and usd/chf on dips. I generally use Forex Performance (finviz.com) to see the strength of currencies just before London open. you can see this at Today's Trending Forex Markets - Barchart.com as well.

Here is a weekly chart with my EW thoughts ..
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STING
  • #1,044
  • Jan 26, 2021 2:36am Jan 26, 2021 2:36am
Here is a chart of US dollar index on 4 hr. I believe that us dollar is in a big corrective move at least to 94.. maybe a tad more.. need some more data to paint a picture with some accuracy. with a high of 90.91, it seems to have completed the 1st wave of wave A on Jan 18th. The second wave may have completed with a low of 90.00 on Jan 21st. as there was an ABC correction clearly shown on the chart.The possibility of 1st wave of minor wave 3 also seems completed with 5 waves up and according to me there will be a 3 wave correction to the downside to maybe 90.28 ( 50% fib of wave 1 and also sma 200 on 4hr). could also come down to 90.22 ( 38.2 of fib retracement). could be even lower as wave 2 is known for it notoriety to retrace upto wave 1 as well.

My strategy is to start selling small the majors from 90.28 all the way to the bottom.
According to this weeks performance on majors, the worst are CHF, AUD, GBP, EUR. so once index reaches 90.28 or lower, i will buy usdchf, and sell aud/usd, gbp/usd and eur/usd until wave 3 is finished. Good luck ... here is the chart
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STING
  • #1,045
  • Jan 27, 2021 4:10am Jan 27, 2021 4:10am
Index went a lot more below than i expected but fortunately it did not break the low otherwise we had to change the count. Now it seems like going up and with today's FOMC and rate decision, it should go a long way up (hopefully). anyway here is a 4H chart depicting targets for this move up according to me.... dont bet the farm on it in a live account ... but do so in a demo... lol

So wave 1 minor and wave 2 minor seems over. It seems like a good 3rd wave up and it looks like it might be an extended wave as well because of the confluence of higher TF fib values.
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STING
  • #1,046
  • Jan 27, 2021 4:14am Jan 27, 2021 4:14am
Strategy still stands ... buy the @#$% out of weaker currency pairs against dollar ... today's weaker ones are CAD EUR and AUD respectively...

so,
eur/usd ---- sell
usd/cad --- buy
aud/usd ----- sell ..

Good luck !!
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STING
  • #1,047
  • Jan 27, 2021 7:33am Jan 27, 2021 7:33am
Quoting stringfx
Index went a lot more below than i expected but fortunately it did not break the low otherwise we had to change the count. Now it seems like going up and with today's FOMC and rate decision, it should go a long way up (hopefully). anyway here is a 4H chart depicting targets for this move up according to me.... dont bet the farm on it in a live account ... but do so in a demo... lol So wave 1 minor and wave 2 minor seems over. It seems like a good 3rd wave up and it looks like it might be an extended wave as well because of the confluence of higher...
This is working out pretty well. waiting for ( Fe 100) in us dollar index to take out a few profitable positions ... Hope some of you took it .. Good luck!

Hoping to see a sudden surge at FOMC to take dollar a lot higher else it will complete Fe 100 on the fib and do a 4th corrective wave and then push up for the 5th wave. All suspense until it actually happens .
STING
  • #1,048
  • Jan 27, 2021 9:36am Jan 27, 2021 9:36am
us dollar is surging forward as expected but it looks like we will have a disappointing FOMC meeting. According to the fib values, us dollar broke through Fe 100 like a hot knife on butter and it seems to try and reach the 161.8% ( normal target for the minor wave 3). Hopefully this will reach 161.8 in 3.5 hours left for FOMC. after that we will see a decline in us dollar for the 4th wave ( reason i mentioned the disappointment).. anyway let it do the 4th wave after that there will be another chart update ... made tons of money today and more to come ...

Here is the latest chart.
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STING
  • #1,049
  • Jan 27, 2021 10:13am Jan 27, 2021 10:13am
alternate count for the above chart ..

Dollar has one more downside before the large correction up. This could be a minor abc correction .Check this chart ..
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STING
  • #1,050
  • Jan 27, 2021 11:47pm Jan 27, 2021 11:47pm
Quoting stringfx
Since the institutional traders are net short on Yen and US is net long ... here is a chart of USDJPY daily. {image}
How do you know about instituional trade positions in general? Just curious if there is a website aviable or something similiar
HMSR
  • #1,051
  • Jan 28, 2021 4:54am Jan 28, 2021 4:54am
Quoting Hmsr
{quote} How do you know about instituional trade positions in general? Just curious if there is a website aviable or something similiar

Check for COT analysis on

www.tradingster.com

COt report is updated on this site on a weekly basis. you can get cot analysis on every currency and commodity + stock indices.
STING
  • #1,052
  • Feb 2, 2021 12:41am Feb 2, 2021 12:41am
possible scenario for alternate count on dxy ...

index has hit the FE 61.8 to the pip and has turned down. this could potentially be a reversal for a wave 5 down of the chart which is shown below...
if this keeps going down... there will be a 5 wave decline to at least 88.85 which is 38.2 expansion. could hit 61.8 at 87.50 as well. but first to determine if dxy will break the high. once a 2nd minor wave is formed, then we can fairly confirm the decline. and buy all other currencies. good luck !!
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STING
  • #1,053
  • Feb 8, 2021 9:09am Feb 8, 2021 9:09am
Quoting stringfx
alternate count for the above chart .. Dollar has one more downside before the large correction up. This could be a minor abc correction .Check this chart .. {image}
So the alternate count played up. we have an ABC up as 4th minor wave. |Now expecting a fifth wave to at least 88.13 if this wave is not extended. Here is a chart. Next post will be a lower time frame chart as we are expecting a 5 wave down move in dxy. So equities are going for a nice rally and all majors going up for a couple of weeks at least ( My 2 cents).
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STING
  • #1,054
  • Feb 8, 2021 9:17am Feb 8, 2021 9:17am
This is an hourly chart of dxy. We will be completing wave 1 of the 5th wave soon and start wave 2 of 5th up soon . Here is a chart . Ultimate target is around 88.13.
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STING
  • #1,055
  • Feb 8, 2021 9:29am Feb 8, 2021 9:29am
This according to me is the big picture of DXY.I am sure the chart is self explanatory. If anyone has a doubt on the chart, give me a shout. This is a daily chart. Will update later on with some COT standings as well. GOOD Luck.
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STING
  • #1,056
  • Feb 8, 2021 10:29am Feb 8, 2021 10:29am
In case of EUR/USD, this pair has been bullish for a long time . since march 3rd 2020, price crossed 200 sma on daily chart.
Next chart is the cot positions of eur/usd. Notice the crossing over to long side also happened on or just after 3rd mar.2020. after that flip, it's been bullish and this is what COT actually tells us the direction for the next few months at least unless it's a corrective pull back and here Elliott wave helps to locate if it's a proper trend or a pull back.
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STING
  • #1,057
  • Feb 9, 2021 5:21am Feb 9, 2021 5:21am
My take on DXY hourly.

I am reasonably certain that the 1st wave is over although no confirmation yet. Here is a chart. Now technically we should go up in a painful way since it is a correction. Wave 2 can retrace right to the top of wave 1 but normally 50% to 61.8% retracements would be expected. after the wave 2 we will buy the majors like crazy .... and also futures.
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STING
  • #1,058
  • Feb 11, 2021 3:15am Feb 11, 2021 3:15am
Dxy update on 4 hr.

Noticeably, very time consuming and painful move up has begun on DXY for the second wave. Expectations are that a reversal for 3rd wave should begin after the retracement to 50 or 61.8%. I will be buying the majors after 50% retrace of DXY and all the way to the top of wave 1 if it goes there. Corrections are the areas where most of the retail money disappears.
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STING
  • #1,059
  • Feb 12, 2021 7:45am Feb 12, 2021 7:45am
I have a question for those who apply Elliot Wave. How do you separate the different degrees? Does anyone use Glen Neely's price rule where a smaller degree can't be bigger in price than a larger degree?
  • #1,060
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:08am Feb 12, 2021 9:08am
Quoting ThugLife
I have a question for those who apply Elliot Wave. How do you separate the different degrees? Does anyone use Glen Neely's price rule where a smaller degree can't be bigger in price than a larger degree?
i am an old school R.N. Elliott fan. I only use daily and 4H charts and also use Bill William's Fractal to determine start and end of wave along with Fib levels. The content is still subjective as there is no hard and fast rule which determines exact target levels . The sentiment of all the traders plays a big role. My honest opinion is that Elliott wave and Fibonacci levels might just be the only grail available to determine at least a 60-70% success rate in this vicious market.
STING
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