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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,001
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:05am Jul 23, 2019 4:05am
Here´s the original Day chart.
Note the High of the 18th of June.
Time, Price, Momentum and Pattern all are aligned for a short campaign.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: day.gif Size: 167 KB
  • #1,002
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:05am Jul 23, 2019 4:05am
And here´s the potential campaign:
Entries are numbered in PINK. (1,2,3,4).

Using the pyramiding tactics of BW last book.
1- 1/5 of my R (my personal risk size).
2 - The full R.
3- 4/5
4- 3/5
5- 2/5.

1- Is a bearish divergent bar, from Bill Williams last book.
Using the pyramiding tactics of the same book.That entry takes only 1/5 of my R (my personal risk size).
2-Is a jurikMA average cross on the 4 H TF.
3-Is a bearish reversal of the DTOSC 8 in the chart, after the potential eow2.
4-Is the fractal break of the potential w1.
5.Is a conservative entry, at the eow4, with a stop at the eow2.

Using something similar from B.W first book, take profit on the biggest lot at the first 13 DTOSC reversal, which coincided with the end of w3. (Buy 2)
Then close all the rest at a conservative eow5. (Buy 1345)

Same campaign potential results: 5,96 R. (almost 3 times more profit for the same swing), using only logical entries and exits.

And here´s the 12 H chart for ilustration:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.gif Size: 153 KB
  • #1,003
  • Jul 27, 2019 1:57pm Jul 27, 2019 1:57pm
Let me give you a clue, something I found extremely usefull:
Start your analysis on the MONTHLY chart!
Even if you daytrade, start with the monthly and work your EW down.It tends to give you a clearer perspective.
My humble 2 cents anyway.
  • #1,004
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:37pm Jul 27, 2019 8:37pm
Quoting cuchuflito
Talking about MM position size and pyramiding. -I took the long trade up back then (red trend line up), with 2 entries and made some $,1,5 R. (1,5 times risk profit) . EURNZD 12 Hour chart Check the difference using chaos theory, Bill Williams entries (second book). Using the indi I share, which signals the entries, according to B. Wiiliams book ( 5 or 6 different types of entries, you need to read the book or find the entries and Indies online to understand it). -Results for the same move using the Chaos system:10 entries, from which 9 were winners,...
how do you use chaos indicator?
  • #1,005
  • Jul 28, 2019 3:29am Jul 28, 2019 3:29am
Quoting T4Trade
{quote} how do you use chaos indicator?
You need to open the chart I posted on your MT4, and go through the trades I explained.
I do my Tech. Analysys using Dynamic Trader software. So some entries were using Chaos , some using Jurik MA, some using DT oscillator.
The most important filter I use, is a time cycle calculator that only is available on the DT software. I will only use any trigger, AFTER DT calculates the high probabilty end of the actual swing. To illustrate how usefull that is, last month I had 75% winning trades, out of 40, trading 12 hour bars.
Once you have a high probability TIME and PRICE target, supported by momentum ,in at least 2 TF, then you can pick whatever trigger suits you best.
Hope this helps.
  • #1,006
  • Aug 3, 2019 5:49am Aug 3, 2019 5:49am
Nifty:

Update of the Daily count from D. Kumar since the wave (iv) Low (blue).

Sixer
Attached Image
  • #1,007
  • Aug 4, 2019 12:49am Aug 4, 2019 12:49am
EURUSD:

Wave "B" (red) finished with an Ending diagonal.

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EW-EURUSD(D)-2.8.19.png Size: 158 KB
  • #1,008
  • Edited 1:20am Aug 4, 2019 1:09am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting Sixer
EURUSD: Wave "B" (red) finished with an Ending diagonal. Sixer {image}
and 5th may undershoot bottom depth to see .signal for correction goes to 1181 & 1192 breaks up for 1st confirmation 1208 , 2nd 1281 for 3rd 1411. waiting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 42 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,009
  • Oct 3, 2019 8:25pm Oct 3, 2019 8:25pm
Good day everyone. Does anyone have an ebook with the title 'Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably - Steve Poser'?

Regards,
Tom
  • #1,010
  • Oct 7, 2019 2:09am Oct 7, 2019 2:09am
Nifty Index:

Update from DK for the Daily and Hourly count.

Sixer
Attached Images
  • #1,011
  • Oct 15, 2019 3:00am Oct 15, 2019 3:00am
GBPUSD Weekly:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2019101407GBPUSDWeekly.png Size: 154 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2019101410GBPUSDWeekly.png Size: 95 KB
  • #1,012
  • Dec 26, 2019 9:49pm Dec 26, 2019 9:49pm
Sixer.... FF miss your analysis..
  • #1,013
  • Edited Jan 8, 2020 12:12pm Jan 7, 2020 4:47pm | Edited Jan 8, 2020 12:12pm
For more objective counting the Elliottwave you need MACD indicator for finding divergence wave 5
  • #1,014
  • Feb 26, 2020 12:53pm Feb 26, 2020 12:53pm
Folks,

It's been a while that i have posted in this thread. The reason is quite simple .. analyzing this market with Elliott wave alone is not simple and also to make up one's mind as to which pair to target was also confusing. Since the last few months, i have been trying combine a few ideas to help me target the pairs which are trending up from demand and trending down from supply. The answers are all there in the COT report.. This report is available here : https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

The only indicator i am using on my chart is supply and demand zones.

From this report i have made some excel sheets on most of the major currencies, gold, oil and dow. Once we come to know what the institutional traders and the major leveraged funds are positioned, their long positions for the week, their short positions and the open interest percentages, we can make a calculated assumptions to the pairs that we need to concentrate for the whole week and maybe 6-8 weeks to ride that trend.

I am sure most of us are aware that COT report always comes to the aforementioned site on every Friday at about 21:00 GMT on Friday but the data they publish is from the previous Tuesday. So Tuesday's data is published to normal people on Friday. Although this data is late by 3 days, it really does not matter because the change in data will reflect for weeks together.

For example ...
smart money position for 11th Feb (Tuesday) published on 14th Feb for Great Britain Pound (GBP) is as follows:

LONG Positions - 65006 contracts. Short Positions - 43922 ... This means they are net long as long positions are more than short positions.

Smart money positions for 18th Feb (Tuesday) published on 21st Feb for GBP

Long positions - 72784 contracts. Short positions 43526... this also means they are net long on GBP.
Now comparing both weeks they have increased their longs from 65k to 72K (which is a lot of money). Not much of change in shorts although slightly decreased.

Like wise ... AUD was net short with the smart money positions on COT report..

Previous week on AUD was Long - 48188 and short - 80856 therefore net short on 11th Feb
Current Week on AUD was Long - 47989 and short - 85466 still net short on 11th Feb.

Compare 2 weeks on AUD - longs decreased by 1k and shorts increased by 5k.

SO when we compare institutional positions of the week, we come to a conclusion to Long GBP/AUD. Once we know which pairs to trade for the week or more .. we can choose only those pairs which can give us more profits and then try to draw an Elliott wave charts for only those trending pairs.

I hope this makes some sense..

Here is a chart of GBP AUD . I have marked 11th Feb with a vertical line.

I will post my excel sheet with COT analysis on all majors later on .... and also some charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud daily.png Size: 32 KB
STING
  • #1,015
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:33pm Feb 26, 2020 4:33pm
Quoting stringfx
Folks, It's been a while that i have posted in this thread. The reason is quite simple .. analyzing this market with Elliott wave alone is not simple and also to make up one's mind as to which pair to target was also confusing. Since the last few months, i have been trying combine a few ideas to help me target the pairs which are trending up from demand and trending down from supply. The answers are all there in the COT report.. This report is available here : https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm The only indicator i am using...
This is one of the best analysis I have ever seen where you have reduced guessing by almost 90%. This is a great reward of your research and I am sure everyone on this thread will forever appreciate your cheerfulness.

One issue I have is that the information you are sharing is not in the link you shared. Also, how can we have access to this weekly COT report Sir?

Thanks and cheers!
  • #1,016
  • Feb 26, 2020 5:08pm Feb 26, 2020 5:08pm
Quoting Isensefx
{quote} This is one of the best analysis I have ever seen where you have reduced guessing by almost 90%. This is a great reward of your research and I am sure everyone on this thread will forever appreciate your cheerfulness. One issue I have is that the information you are sharing is not in the link you shared. Also, how can we have access to this weekly COT report Sir? Thanks and cheers!
I was able to find how to demystify the COT report through this link: https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex...the-cot-report

Guys should learn from the link above how to read the COT report @Stringfx gave us. it is very simple when you learn it from that link.

Thanks once again to @Stringfx. You are great!!!
  • #1,017
  • Feb 26, 2020 6:12pm Feb 26, 2020 6:12pm
In lieu of the increased interest in the COT report on this forum lately, I'd like to share these Excel Workbooks I made a while ago. They represent the Futures and Options Combined version of the reports [Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures and the Disaggregated Report] for a good variety of all contracts available.

Additional features

  1. Full history for contracts.
  2. Charts
  3. Custom Charts [depends on the type]
  4. Workbooks Auto-Update when new data is released.
  5. Retrieves old data if necessary (Windows OS only)
  6. Notifications when Macro/Workbook updates are available.
  7. Additional contracts available via macro (Windows OS only)
  8. Navigation tools.
  9. I take requests for new features if I like them.

Read the ReadME file in the DropBox folder.

  • #1,018
  • Feb 27, 2020 2:22am Feb 27, 2020 2:22am
Quoting Isensefx
{quote} This is one of the best analysis I have ever seen where you have reduced guessing by almost 90%. This is a great reward of your research and I am sure everyone on this thread will forever appreciate your cheerfulness. One issue I have is that the information you are sharing is not in the link you shared. Also, how can we have access to this weekly COT report Sir? Thanks and cheers!
Hi Isensefx, thank you for dropping by. although this is not a holy grail that traders are searching for (if there is one ) .. but might come a close second.
We puny guys have to follow the big traders as they move the market and who understands fundamental analysis better than the banks and hedge funds.. the only thing is that we have to keep our positions small. i am not using a hard stop loss as we can see reversals through COT analysis.
The supply and demand zones in my chart are daily and weekly. I use the indicator attached below for the same and once i take a position, i will let it ride until it touches one of the supply/demand zones which has a confluence with my fibonacci levels.

i am opening a demo TE and will attach to this thread to monitor the progress of this method. meanwhile here is an excel sheet with last week's and this weeks comparison value on COT.

Temp status is difference between the two weeks and net status is the actual direction of the asset.
Open interest % is the percentage of contracts committed by the traders into the market.

Hope this will help someone .
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx COT NET POSITION.xlsx   12 KB | 327 downloads
File Type: ex4 Supply_Demand_Zones1.ex4   36 KB | 397 downloads
STING
  • #1,019
  • Feb 27, 2020 2:29am Feb 27, 2020 2:29am
Quoting Isensefx
{quote} I was able to find how to demystify the COT report through this link: https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex...the-cot-report Guys should learn from the link above how to read the COT report @Stringfx gave us. it is very simple when you learn it from that link. Thanks once again to @Stringfx. You are great!!!
yeah that is very easy ... once you go to the site i mentioned before .

DO a Ctrl F to find the asset you need and you will get some thing like this ...
suppose you are searching for GBP.. you only need non-commercial data and it's all mentioned in the report, the long contracts, short contracts, open interest etc...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cot12.png Size: 14 KB
STING
  • #1,020
  • Feb 27, 2020 2:30am Feb 27, 2020 2:30am
Quoting MoshiM
In lieu of the increased interest in the COT report on this forum lately, I'd like to share these Excel Workbooks I made a while ago. They represent the Futures and Options Combined version of the reports [Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures and the Disaggregated Report] for a good variety of all contracts available. Additional features Full history for contracts. Charts Custom Charts [depends on the type] Workbooks Auto-Update when new data is released. Retrieves...
Thanks for those buddy ... very useful ..
STING
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