Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2797 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #55,921
  • Jan 25, 2021 6:19am Jan 25, 2021 6:19am
chart just copied 14-18.
the 2 black lines have been adjusted as price moved, we still have plenty if/when it happens.
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,922
  • Edited 7:05am Jan 25, 2021 6:53am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting ia1979
You’re saying the high broke for 30+? You must be looking at the wrong range. Are you perhaps looking at the range from 10pm to 2am UK time?
Sorry for the misunderstanding, my broker time is GMT +2. So i guess i canīt look at the H4 candle that opens at 00 and closes at 04.

So i have to switch to a H1 chart and look at this range right? 02 AM - 06 AM on my chart (brokers time). It broke for 14,4. The low broke for 0.9.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-02-06.jpg Size: 107 KB


I originally started to look at the 12 PM - 16 PM on my chart, that would be 10 AM -14 PM (UK Time).

It looks interesting too, at least if one end breaks the opposite ends seems not to get touched often. So trading this like the BillyBar looking for 5-10 Points as a alternative might be good for me too.

Especially in terms of trading times this would suit better to me. The break would most likely happen within the NY open which is still afternoon my time and i am not sleeping then

I might need to take stats here first. I looked for January only so far, and it looks quiet good to me.
  • #55,923
  • Jan 25, 2021 6:59am Jan 25, 2021 6:59am
posted before.
Attached Image


update, that small 70 was hit
Attached Image

i was following price down by scalping off the 5 minute bar.
same happened with e/u and a/u not far behind.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,924
  • Edited 9:22am Jan 25, 2021 7:37am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Sorry for the misunderstanding, my broker time is GMT +2. So i guess i canīt look at the H4 candle that opens at 00 and closes at 04. So i have to switch to a H1 chart and look at this range right? 02 AM - 06 AM on my chart (brokers time). It broke for 14,4. The low broke for 0.9. {image} I originally started to look at the 12 PM - 16 PM on my chart, that would be 10 AM -14 PM (UK Time). It looks interesting too, at least if one end breaks the opposite ends seems not to get touched often. So trading this like the BillyBar looking for 5-10...
looks about right but you have 5 bars in your range. So for you I think it would be the bar that starts at 2am, and the last one would be the one that starts at 5am. Four 1-hourly bars. Billy’s last few posts have been excellent. Look at the way he’s playing it. Following the high and low and scalping using 5 minute bars.
  • #55,925
  • Jan 25, 2021 7:42am Jan 25, 2021 7:42am
Quoting ia1979
Problems start arising if the first break fails, and then the second break fails too. With all these range break methods, you need to have a mental cut off because if you keep increasing your lot size, you could be down quite a bit very quickly after 3 or 4 breaks.
I think about starting my day with the BillyBar at higher lot size and taking the first initial break high or low looking for +5.

If that (plan a) fails i would have to counter it at the opposite end or take SL.

Like you say, things start to get ugly if the these breaks fail to hit your target.

So how to come around/compensate for it.

Now that i understand a bit bettter about countering i could think of locking-in the first break of the BillyBar at the opposite end, then move on by either trading the second break seperately for +5 again for the same position size.

BUT, not countering it again. So if the second break has problems too, maybe take a fixed SL faster depending on what i see. Maybe i should be out for maximal -5 Pips then instead of letting it retrace once again for another 20 and having to counter it too.

So i end up -25 at the BillyBar for high lots at max. -20 (locked-in) -5 as a fixed stop loss.

My plan b now would be to use the 00-04 range breakout (happening the next morning) trying to fix the -25 locked-in by releasing the positive side of the countered trade as soon as the 00-04 would break for the second time. Then hope for the remaining negative floating side of the failed BillyBar trade to move back in my favor with this new signal until i am break even.

For sure if the second break doesnīt happens the next day I would have to wait and keep the failed BillyBar trade locked-in.

I am just not sure if a plan c, d, e, f wouldnīt be still needed then, because plan b could fail too. That's were i still hang...
  • #55,926
  • Jan 25, 2021 8:53am Jan 25, 2021 8:53am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} looks about tight but you have 5 bars in your range. So for you I think it would be the bar that starts at 2am, and the last one would be the one that starts at 5am. Four 1-hourly bars. Billy’s last few posts have been excellent. Look at the way he’s playing it. Following the high and low and scalping using 5 minute bars.
Ah i see, yes i included one too many there. Should be 02 including 05 then.

I see what Billy has posted. I am not too sure about switching to even another time frame chart to do something there i have no plan of. "Play" is no option for me, i think Billy is retired already so he is allowed to play
  • #55,927
  • Jan 25, 2021 9:31am Jan 25, 2021 9:31am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Ah i see, yes i included one too many there. Should be 02 including 05 then. I see what Billy has posted. I am not too sure about switching to even another time frame chart to do something there i have no plan of. "Play" is no option for me, i think Billy is retired already so he is allowed to play
i retired due to trading,,,, once i knew what i was doing i traded 100% like i do now.
You have to be committed 100%
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,928
  • Jan 25, 2021 9:33am Jan 25, 2021 9:33am
Quoting Avery
{quote} I think about starting my day with the BillyBar at higher lot size and taking the first initial break high or low looking for +5. If that (plan a) fails i would have to counter it at the opposite end or take SL. Like you say, things start to get ugly if the these breaks fail to hit your target. So how to come around/compensate for it. Now that i understand a bit bettter about countering i could think of locking-in the first break of the BillyBar at the opposite end, then move on by either trading the second break seperately for +5 again...
Something that might help you and others on the thread as well, have a look at the fails of the Billy bar for the past few months. Then look at the range breaks of 12-4am either for the same day or the day after (minimum 10 pip target). I think you’ll find that it is very rare that both trades fail on the same day. So in theory we should be able to fix the Billy bar fail with the 12-4am range break on the same day. This can fail as well which is why it is important to not keep opening new, larger positions to compensate. If you do look at the stats, maybe share them on the thread, I’m sure people would appreciate it. The stats for the 12-4am break would obviously have to be for later in the day, after the Billy bar officially fails.
  • #55,929
  • Jan 25, 2021 10:50am Jan 25, 2021 10:50am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Something that might help you and others on the thread as well, have a look at the fails of the Billy bar for the past few months. Then look at the range breaks of 12-4am either for the same day or the day after (minimum 10 pip target). I think you’ll find that it is very rare that both trades fail on the same day. So in theory we should be able to fix the Billy bar fail with the 12-4am range break on the same day. This can fail as well which is why it is important to not keep opening new, larger positions to compensate. If you do look at...

you've got it bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,930
  • Jan 25, 2021 11:04am Jan 25, 2021 11:04am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Something that might help you and others on the thread as well, have a look at the fails of the Billy bar for the past few months. Then look at the range breaks of 12-4am either for the same day or the day after (minimum 10 pip target). I think you’ll find that it is very rare that both trades fail on the same day. So in theory we should be able to fix the Billy bar fail with the 12-4am range break on the same day. This can fail as well which is why it is important to not keep opening new, larger positions to compensate. If you do look at...
Thanks, i looked at it exactly the way you describe by trying to find options for a plan b, 12-4 no stats yet, just started to look at.
  • #55,931
  • Edited 12:15pm Jan 25, 2021 11:29am | Edited 12:15pm
Back to limited time at charts again...work stuff....slim pickings for me today.

First this morning on Dax pre-open - price had bounced off the top of a previous hourly high at least twice before, so I entered on the next bounce with sight SL, anticipating a bit of a reaction, and got 6.5 pips.

Dax then went bonkers!! Fun to watch...(those who could)

Second one just there now. US100 +3 momo drop from supply to demand.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,932
  • Edited 7:45pm Jan 25, 2021 7:22pm | Edited 7:45pm
Quoting ia1979
Hi all. Claudia/Michael, just noticed you are both using slightly different ranges on AJ. Michael uses the break of the 10pm to 12am range I believe, and Claudia uses the 12am to 2am range as far as I can tell. Both appear to work though
Hi mate.
I pinched this concept from Claudia, so I was assuming we traded the same.

I trade the range of the first two hours after NY Close.(not sure how that equates to your time)

I didn't trade it today, as the range was about 20 pips (approx 30% of the ADR) so it was a bit big for my liking.
Plus...it's a Bank holiday in Aus today.
On top of that, the low of the range was a bit too close to the weekly pivot fib, and the big pin bar from yesterday suggested (to me anyway) that a short trade would possibly/probably have a rough chance of success.

EDIT: I would have got my +4 as it turned out, so my concerns weren't warranted lol.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY 18.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #55,933
  • Jan 25, 2021 8:48pm Jan 25, 2021 8:48pm
Missed the AJ but managed +4 on the 4H range break on GU. (thankfully)

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  • #55,934
  • Jan 25, 2021 9:29pm Jan 25, 2021 9:29pm
Quoting MichaelG
Missed the AJ but managed +4 on the 4H range break on GU. (thankfully) {image}
Nice one bud.
I woke up quite early and have managed a couple of short scalps on Cable and Dax lol.
Scalping is now my latest craze.
Actually it isn't, it is a form of fixing which I used to do after a Fail. AND it's quite close to how my bots work. Abs that's enough of that.
I wonder uf/when Dax will go back up. I'm all set yaaay.
T 05-29
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,935
  • Jan 26, 2021 12:02am Jan 26, 2021 12:02am
Watching that 70 range.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 10.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #55,936
  • Jan 26, 2021 12:03am Jan 26, 2021 12:03am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi W, good question. i actually thought we might have problems, BUT, i was actually concentrating on the scalping. Sometime very soon i am going to hit a scalp using my big trade, not the tenner lol. edit, we have no news today, nor do we need it as it might screw us over, lol
Morning Billy, Sorry for the late reply.

Was there anything in particular that made u think we could have problems? Just asking out of curiosity, always open to learn more

Seems like u are enjoying the scalping

Cheers, W
  • #55,937
  • Jan 26, 2021 12:35am Jan 26, 2021 12:35am
+4 off the BB. (thanks Billy )

EDIT Sorry. Not H1....M15

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  • #55,938
  • Jan 26, 2021 12:52am Jan 26, 2021 12:52am
Quoting MichaelG
+4 off the BB. (thanks Billy ) EDIT Sorry. Not H1....M15 {image}
You like that "+4" ? +5 here...

Attached Image
  • #55,939
  • Jan 26, 2021 1:02am Jan 26, 2021 1:02am
Quoting Avery
{quote} You like that "+4" ? +5 here... {image}
Yeah mate. I've spoken about my +4 reasoning before.....but.....yes..... I could have gotten 5+..... but you never know, do you?

kay s'raa s'raa (loosely translated into Australian lingo from the expression "Sh*t Happens")

(not sure about that gif though. Not sure what you are trying to say there?? Doesn't bear thinking about if it's what I think you are trying to portray)
  • #55,940
  • Jan 26, 2021 1:13am Jan 26, 2021 1:13am
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Yeah mate. I've spoken about my +4 reasoning before.....but.....yes..... I could have gotten 5+..... but you never know, do you? kay s'raa s'raa (loosely translated into Australian lingo from the expression "Sh*t Happens") (not sure about that gif though. Not sure what you are trying to say there?? Doesn't bear thinking about if it's what I think you are trying to portray)
You will hit +5 most of the time. What is your typical spread for GU, you pay for commissions too?

The gif, forget about it. I tried to be funny...
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