Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2796 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #55,901
  • Jan 24, 2021 3:29pm Jan 24, 2021 3:29pm
Quoting billytt
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} To begin adding the Mean Reversion elements... Range limits: FLO2 / 3 (Jury is still out on 3) sm (Swing-man) Husky Bands / Lazy TMA Donchian Channel Use either / or, not all at once. DO NOT use in back test in any way. They re-calculate (NOT repaint) and so always look perfect. Only use in as-live / forward testing. Turning Point aids: S+D SweetSpotsGold Cam Pivots Eights Again, use either /or. Either set up with only the elements you ever want to use - and even then, the chart will be so, so busy. Or have a
...
Oh no, I agree completely. That's why I said somewhere way back at the beginning that it should NOT be used as a method in its own.

There are aspects that work when they tie in with other specific events and that is what a trader can look for.
  • #55,902
  • Jan 24, 2021 3:31pm Jan 24, 2021 3:31pm
Quoting billytt
IDD, you are forgiven.
Hahahahahaha...
  • #55,903
  • Jan 24, 2021 3:48pm Jan 24, 2021 3:48pm
Quoting stu
Hi folks...been very busy at work so haven't even been able to read the thread for a few days...just experimenting with a term Lem threw out a while back that I've beej wondering about from a trading perspective, especially when I could see how price for n Dax liked to overlap itself. Mean reversion. Another clue came from the Ausie thread, and so I'm just wondering will my TP be hit here . Sometimes it takes 2 or 3 weeks, but invariably they are hit.. it's just getting the entry that's the run part. I took the most of my money out...

Just over halfway there and sitting on a recent weekly high. No sign of it wanting to close the gap with any urgency, so maybe....... we'll see.

My GU stopped out at BE soon after the original post...it wasn't ready to comply.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,904
  • Jan 25, 2021 12:50am Jan 25, 2021 12:50am
Hi all. i am not trading the 08-00 break cable.
The low has broken and still active.
i am scalping again but alone.

So far 20 made off DAX yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, small trades.
t 08-50
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,905
  • Jan 25, 2021 12:51am Jan 25, 2021 12:51am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote}{quote} Oh no, I agree completely. That's why I said somewhere way back at the beginning that it should NOT be used as a method in its own. There are aspects that work when they tie in with other specific events and that is what a trader can look for.
sorry, i should of known you would show caution.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,906
  • Jan 25, 2021 12:58am Jan 25, 2021 12:58am
Dax scalps, 5 minute time frame AND,,,,,,,, I USED A STOP.

i had 2 small losses and made +20 points .
Billy is having fun. lol
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,907
  • Jan 25, 2021 1:11am Jan 25, 2021 1:11am
Quoting billytt
Dax scalps, 5 minute time frame AND,,,,,,,, I USED A STOP. i had 2 small losses and made +20 points . Billy is having fun. lol{image}


  • #55,908
  • Jan 25, 2021 1:16am Jan 25, 2021 1:16am
Quoting stu
{quote}
yes indeed, a stop.
The reason being, i am hitting several trades and the MARGIN would crucify me, i have the odds to win even using a stop.
Dont forget i am watching the daily range too.

last week we were trading all day up until approx 6 pm, but really we do not need that.
i have also picked points up on e/u and cable.

the 08-00 break would of been ok too. as i posted i did not trade it.
t 09-15
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,909
  • Jan 25, 2021 2:00am Jan 25, 2021 2:00am
Quoting billytt
Hi all. i am not trading the 08-00 break cable. The low has broken and still active. i am scalping again but alone. So far 20 made off DAX yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, small trades. t 08-50
Morning Billy,

May I ask if you had a hunch or reason not to trade the 08-00 cable break?

Cheers! Wizz
  • #55,910
  • Jan 25, 2021 2:05am Jan 25, 2021 2:05am
Hi all.

Claudia/Michael, just noticed you are both using slightly different ranges on AJ. Michael uses the break of the 10pm to 12am range I believe, and Claudia uses the 12am to 2am range as far as I can tell. Both appear to work though
  • #55,911
  • Jan 25, 2021 2:08am Jan 25, 2021 2:08am
Quoting stu
{quote}
Aside from Billy's approach, it is often wise to know where to get out before you get in
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #55,912
  • Edited 3:02am Jan 25, 2021 2:20am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Morning Billy, May I ask if you had a hunch or reason not to trade the 08-00 cable break? Cheers! Wizz
Hi W, good question.
i actually thought we might have problems, BUT, i was actually concentrating on the scalping.

Sometime very soon i am going to hit a scalp using my big trade, not the tenner lol.

edit, we have no news today, nor do we need it as it might screw us over, lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,913
  • Jan 25, 2021 3:03am Jan 25, 2021 3:03am
i have 3 of my 5 points on main trade, lol.
i bottled it and got out.
t 11-03
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,914
  • Jan 25, 2021 4:17am Jan 25, 2021 4:17am
Quoting stu
{quote} Just over halfway there and sitting on a recent weekly high. No sign of it wanting to close the gap with any urgency, so maybe....... we'll see. My GU stopped out at BE soon after the original post...it wasn't ready to comply. {image}

And out....price retraced all the way back down to my stop. That's the tricky part about this....hard to beat the scalps
  • #55,915
  • Jan 25, 2021 4:20am Jan 25, 2021 4:20am
DAZX, i caught some of the drop off the 11-45 5 minute bar.

One thing which is difficult to know is how far will it drop????
i have never ever been one for greed , so i am happy. It is the same with cable and e/u.

i know we have daily range but quite often it doesn't just happen, we have movement up and down, and doiwn and up.

edit, here is chart showing.
Attached Image
i took 9
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,916
  • Jan 25, 2021 5:40am Jan 25, 2021 5:40am
Quoting billytt
DAZX, i caught some of the drop off the 11-45 5 minute bar. One thing which is difficult to know is how far will it drop???? i have never ever been one for greed , so i am happy. It is the same with cable and e/u. i know we have daily range but quite often it doesn't just happen, we have movement up and down, and doiwn and up. edit, here is chart showing. {image}i took 9
Well done William.

I nibbled away at the Dax between 8am and 10:15am ( my normal trading slot) so missed the big drop. But one cannot have everything.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #55,917
  • Jan 25, 2021 5:44am Jan 25, 2021 5:44am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Well done William. I nibbled away at the Dax between 8am and 10:15am ( my normal trading slot) so missed the big drop. But one cannot have everything.

earlier in the trading day i would of anticipated hopefully of maybe catching a spike or rapid move.
Like you say and i agree with, We can not have everything.
i am more than happy with my bag of %%%. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,918
  • Edited 6:00am Jan 25, 2021 5:44am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting ia1979
Hi all. Claudia/Michael, just noticed you are both using slightly different ranges on AJ. Michael uses the break of the 10pm to 12am range I believe, and Claudia uses the 12am to 2am range as far as I can tell. Both appear to work though
@ia1979, when you talked about 12-4 range, you mean 00 (midnight) - 04 am UK time (i marked by the red vertical line), not the 12-16 that develops right now.

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If you mean 00-04 am, here the high broke for about +30 today and the low broke as well. You then prefer to take only the second break (if happens) right? The second break (low) went south for +1-2 Points so far. How do you determine where to take profits with it? A fixed static based on probability stats like with the BillyBar or something else? The range here tends to be around 30-40 Pips on average.

Thanks in advance for your help.
  • #55,919
  • Jan 25, 2021 6:08am Jan 25, 2021 6:08am
Quoting Avery
{quote} @ia1979, when you talked about 12-4 range, you mean 00 (midnight) - 04 am UK time (i marked by the red vertical line), not the 12-16 that develops right now. {image} If you mean 00-04 am, here the high broke for about +30 today and the low broke as well. You then prefer to take only the second break (if happens) right? How do you determine where to take profits with it. The range here tends to be around 30-40 Pips on average.
Hi Avery, this is Billy’s method that he talks about a lot. And yes it is the midnight to 4am range (UK time). Today the high broke for approx 15 and then the low broke for approx 10. I actually took 10 on the high break today via my range break EA. You’re saying the high broke for 30+? You must be looking at the wrong range. Are you perhaps looking at the range from 10pm to 2am UK time?

Yes the range can be quite big. I tend not to trade it if the range is smaller than 20 pips or larger than 45 pips. And the whole idea is that if GU has made a max of 45 pips, there’s still scope for more (Billy talks about a modest daily range of 70 pips). Most days this works out just fine if aiming for 5-10 pips on the break. Problems start arising if the first break fails, and then the second break fails too. With all these range break methods, you need to have a mental cut off because if you keep increasing your lot size, you could be down quite a bit very quickly after 3 or 4 breaks.

Your odds are better for 10 pips on the second break. However, some days the range only breaks once. I think most of last week it only broke in one direction.
  • #55,920
  • Jan 25, 2021 6:15am Jan 25, 2021 6:15am
Quoting Avery
{quote} @ia1979, when you talked about 12-4 range, you mean 00 (midnight) - 04 am UK time (i marked by the red vertical line), not the 12-16 that develops right now. {image} If you mean 00-04 am, here the high broke for about +30 today and the low broke as well. You then prefer to take only the second break (if happens) right? The second break (low) went south for +1-2 Points so far. How do you determine where to take profits with it? A fixed static based on probability stats like with the BillyBar or something else? The range here tends to be around...
00-00 to 04-00 4 hour area.
High broke and then low.
We are looking at the daily range, this chart gives us a lot of info.
i normally have a couple of black lines on showing 70 range, this is a big help too.
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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