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bad months for forex

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 12, 2008 5:13am Mar 12, 2008 5:13am
Hi all, just wondering if there are any bad months for forex trading, perhaps where the volumes are low and your standard indicators keep failing? Perhaps December?

I am doing some backtesting and December seems to be not as good as the other months I have tested so far

Thanks

Max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #2
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:32am Mar 12, 2008 5:32am
December is the month when the E/U retraced quite a bit, it's likely it affected other pairs as well. If you're trading longer term like a few trades per month or less then perhaps it's just some bad luck and in the longer term statistic it should work out fine if you system works in general. If you're talking about lots of trades per month that consistently failed.. maybe the mechanics of your strategy need a review or better discretion of entry..

Good Luck
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #3
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:06am Mar 12, 2008 6:06am
I think December market is a bit slower compared to any other months.
  • #4
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:22am Mar 12, 2008 6:22am
The end of the year (or quarter, or month) can be a time when systems break down due to random moves in the market.

Big players often want to get flat during those times.
  • #5
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:12am Mar 12, 2008 7:12am
August can be a bad month due to lower liquidity levels. Many Europeans and Americans are on holiday then. Lower liquidity levels means the markets can be pushed around easier.

December can also be a tough month as the funds are all looking to close their books and get flat. Corporations are also looking to expatriate huge sums of money as well.
  • #6
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:36am Mar 12, 2008 7:36am
Quoting max pips
Hi all, just wondering if there are any bad months for forex trading, perhaps where the volumes are low and your standard indicators keep failing? Perhaps December?

I am doing some backtesting and December seems to be not as good as the other months I have tested so far

Thanks

Max
the worst month is perhaps your first month live trading

after the enjoyment and the ease you feel when on the demo account
you finally step into the real account and started perhaps for the first time our heart beat every time the price moved against our position

there is no bad or good months, you can even made a profit after dec 25th
and not to forget months with extremely high volatility might be dangerous for your account
  • #7
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:22am Mar 12, 2008 11:22am
thanks for that,

I guess its very much down to the trading style anyway.

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #8
  • Mar 12, 2008 1:35pm Mar 12, 2008 1:35pm
Quote
there is no bad or good months, you can even made a profit after dec 25th

Altho some pairs posted HUGE spreads around the big holidays. So there are some days that are worse than others.
  • #9
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:28pm Mar 12, 2008 6:28pm
funny really to see so many say December.

my best months have all been in December. dec 2004 was my biggest month ever until last year

August is usually very poor - liquidity is down and many holidays, if you want to go away, i'd suggest August.

on saying that august 07 was my biggest ever month, but it was a fluke cos of sub prime (i did almost 5000 pips in 3 days!)
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #10
  • Jan 23, 2021 11:57am Jan 23, 2021 11:57am
The market is changing continuously. So, you have to adjust your trading strategy according to that. Otherwise your profitable strategy will become a dessert.
  • #11
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:44am Jan 24, 2021 9:44am
At the end of the year, if traders trade at this time, there are often many disadvantages. as most of the big companies will settle by the end of the year. From there, the liquidity will be worse.
Meanwhile, this year there was an epidemic, so the ability to change is even more unpredictable.
  • #12
  • Jan 24, 2021 11:55am Jan 24, 2021 11:55am
Quoting CoraLombard
The market is changing continuously. So, you have to adjust your trading strategy according to that. Otherwise your profitable strategy will become a dessert.
True. No strategy will work same all time. So, adjust if it is needed to improve.
  • #13
  • Jan 25, 2021 10:27am Jan 25, 2021 10:27am
The month of December is usually very difficult as this is the month when the maximum trader usually feels the annual holiday with trade closures. This causes volatility in the market.
  • #14
  • Jan 25, 2021 12:28pm Jan 25, 2021 12:28pm
Quoting SamGoi
The month of December is usually very difficult as this is the month when the maximum trader usually feels the annual holiday with trade closures. This causes volatility in the market.
I think most difficult time to trade after Christmas holiday. Market become non volatility where is hard to find good trade setup.
  • #15
  • Jan 25, 2021 12:52pm Jan 25, 2021 12:52pm
Quoting ViktorDanie
{quote} I think most difficult time to trade after Christmas holiday.

I'm very surprised, Viktor.

For most of the last 30 years, January's been about my second-best (sometimes third-best) month of the year.

I normally make up, within the first 3 weeks of January, for all the lost opportunities in the second half of December when things are understandably quiet.

August is absolutely dead (as you can reliably see, every year, from the futures volumes). Almost from the 1st to the 31st. It's become more or less self-fulfilling, I think: "traders' holiday month". The currency markets are terribly quiet.
  • #16
  • Jan 25, 2021 1:02pm Jan 25, 2021 1:02pm
Quoting SamGoi
This causes volatility in the market.

Quoting ViktorDanie
Market become non volatility where is hard to find good trade setup.

Some really striking differences among people's experiences, then! (Mind you, that's not a surprise when half of them have come from a "forum posting service" and have never actually traded in their lives. I suppose they help out on the SEO front, though, because of the "regularly updated content" criterion, but OMG do they post some rubbish!!)
  • #17
  • Jan 26, 2021 2:25am Jan 26, 2021 2:25am
Quoting max pips
Hi all, just wondering if there are any bad months for forex trading, perhaps where the volumes are low and your standard indicators keep failing? Perhaps December? I am doing some backtesting and December seems to be not as good as the other months I have tested so far Thanks Max

ur right ... there are some minutes in 1 mints chart that are bad
similarly some hours in a day bad
similarly some days in month are bad
similarly some weeks in a quart bad
similarly some month in a year bad
  • #18
  • Jan 26, 2021 5:54pm Jan 26, 2021 5:54pm
Some year in a decade are bad
Some decade in a century are bad

Some traders are bad
It's bad luck to be superstitious
  • #19
  • Jan 26, 2021 6:27pm Jan 26, 2021 6:27pm
December is usually the closing month and the market is more volatile this month. And there are different types of holidays.
  • #20
  • Jan 27, 2021 9:26am Jan 27, 2021 9:26am
It's largely due to the Christmas and New Year Holidays.
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