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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #55,841
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:31pm Jan 20, 2021 4:31pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} May dry real quick tonight with the red news for both sides, lol. X
Yes mate, I'm thinking of standing aside and waiting for the dust to settle. No real price action on the higher time frames that suggest a possible direction. (at least not to me lol)
  • #55,842
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:46pm Jan 20, 2021 4:46pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Hi Michael. Good to see these range breaks are working for you. I have noticed that you tend to aim for 4-6 pips normally which is fine as it makes it easier to hit your target. But what about your risk? Are you making your SL the other side of the range? If yes, does that mean in the event of a failed trade, you would aim for more pips on the opposite break? Thanks.
Hi mate.
If the break fails, I would counter it at the opposite side of the range, and add an additional trade looking for 4 - 5 pips. But no, I don't increase lot size or look for a greater pip target.
I have taken on a bit of Billy's mindset, and treat the counter separately. And then look for my required pips on the second position.

In your reply to Avery, you mentioned perhaps reducing the risk by looking to counter before price hits the opposite side of the range.
I did look at that option, but (for me), I found that I would normally be on a counter that I didn't need to be on......and if I had have waited, my trade would have worked out. (now I haven't done that on every pair. Just AJ)

Cheers
  • #55,843
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:50pm Jan 20, 2021 4:50pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Yes that’s one way to do it. Or you could use a different trigger. For example the 12-4am range break on GU. Or a different instrument/trigger. But you are now thinking along the right lines. Personally I would not use the 8:15am trade to fix another 8:15am trade. But that is a personal choice. Nothing wrong with it. And of course, no guarantees it will work. In the past year the Billy bar trade has failed 3 days in a row before. But it has also had a winning streak of nearly 3 weeks if I remember correctly. We don’t know what tomorrow or...
One of the best answers i found so far. Thanks so much. So at least i don't think too much different on the hole subject.

I am also doing the statistics and backtesting. What i found out is that in 2020 the third opposite break of the BillyBar range (first break at the low failed to give +5, second break at the high failed to give +5, then third opposite break (the low again) then normally makes +5 (95% probability).

Means i could try to fix it by doing some kind of martingale (yes the bad word) and trying to fix such fail by hitting such third opposite break at some day after the fail but now instead of trying to make 20 Pips for the same size to cover that fail increase my stake size quiet a lot to compensate that with +5. The problem with this i have even knowing the high probability you never know when there is a total whipsaw day and it breaks multiple more times until it gives +5. At a range of 20 by increasing the size i would already have to use FAR HIGHER lots to compensate for that. If this goes wrong, you can really call it a bad day.

About the other triggers, i haven't looked at it so far because i thought one trigger should/would be enough for the beginning trying to master but it seems like you really need some more triggers also backed by good statistics. So maybe i should start with that instead of trying to then fix it with doing my "random" entries based on nothing than i see/feel is the right thing to do in the moment.

I also wanted to ask Billy if there is something like a "second chance" trigger coming later the day some could trade after the BillyBar failed. If you say the 12-4 am this would perhaps still fit into my trading times. However as this is a 4 hours range already i would have no idea then where to cut or counter my loss as well as where i should take profit. If this is based on statistics again i guess i should also target only a minimum amount of points again what is more likely to reach for most days.
  • #55,844
  • Jan 20, 2021 5:00pm Jan 20, 2021 5:00pm
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Hi mate. If the break fails, I would counter it at the opposite side of the range, and add an additional trade looking for 4 - 5 pips. But no, I don't increase lot size or look for a greater pip target. I have taken on a bit of Billy's mindset, and treat the counter separately. And then look for my required pips on the second position. In your reply to Avery, you mentioned perhaps reducing the risk by looking to counter before price hits the opposite side of the range. I did look at that option, but (for me), I found that I would normally...
Hi Michael, thanks for your answer. Indeed, I did add a second trade of same size to yesterdays high after the low failed, this got me +5. So at least reduced the fail a bit -19 + 5, so only left with a -14. But sometimes the second break fails too, so when you added and this happens you have to cut the loss fixed or counter it again, making it even worst to fix with the third trade then as you would need even more points there or increase the size again.

I might shall experiment with adding maybe an additional trade to the breaks of smaller size and a larger TP instead of just +5, so for days where it keeps moving and moving without failing i would have at least some more points booked in positive (even at a smaller size).
  • #55,845
  • Jan 20, 2021 5:22pm Jan 20, 2021 5:22pm
You know Tom Hougaard? I am following him for some months, also in the Telegram Group. But his approach seems to be different, he likes to add to positions. I always wonder if he would do the same or did the same while doing this for a living in his earlier years. Tried to ask him, hard to reach. For me doing a few points but consistently seems to be more like the way to go.

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  • #55,846
  • Jan 20, 2021 5:34pm Jan 20, 2021 5:34pm
Quoting Avery
{quote} One of the best answers i found so far. Thanks so much. So at least i don't think too much different on the hole subject. I am also doing the statistics and backtesting. What i found out is that in 2020 the third opposite break of the BillyBar range (first break at the low failed to give +5, second break at the high failed to give +5, then third opposite break (the low again) then normally makes +5 (95% probability). Means i could try to fix it by doing some kind of martingale (yes the bad word) and trying to fix such fail by hitting such...
personally I have found there is a very high likelihood of the 12-4am range break producing 10+ pips after 8am UK time. An even higher likelihood of it producing 10+ pips at the opposite end if the original break fails to make 10+ pips.
  • #55,847
  • Jan 20, 2021 7:21pm Jan 20, 2021 7:21pm
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Yes mate, I'm thinking of standing aside and waiting for the dust to settle. No real price action on the higher time frames that suggest a possible direction. (at least not to me lol)
Couldn't help myself lol.
+4 off the AJ 2 hour range.

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  • #55,848
  • Jan 20, 2021 8:33pm Jan 20, 2021 8:33pm
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Couldn't help myself lol. +4 off the AJ 2 hour range. {image}
Those pins off the ma were a pretty big clue! Note the stop hunt back to the Z-Line as well.
  • #55,849
  • Jan 20, 2021 10:03pm Jan 20, 2021 10:03pm
Grabbed +5 off the break of the 4-hour range after NY close.

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  • #55,850
  • Jan 21, 2021 2:53am Jan 21, 2021 2:53am
Quoting Avery
You know Tom Hougaard? I am following him for some months, also in the Telegram Group. But his approach seems to be different, he likes to add to positions. I always wonder if he would do the same or did the same while doing this for a living in his earlier years. Tried to ask him, hard to reach. For me doing a few points but consistently seems to be more like the way to go. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDxFHrYYbos
Lost the will after half of it. Not exactly Mr Positive is he?
  • #55,851
  • Jan 21, 2021 4:23am Jan 21, 2021 4:23am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Lost the will after half of it. Not exactly Mr Positive is he?
Hahahaha hahaha...
  • #55,852
  • Jan 21, 2021 4:24am Jan 21, 2021 4:24am
Quoting MichaelG
Grabbed +5 off the break of the 4-hour range after NY close. {image}
I love running EA. So smooth. Especially good for either one big runner or multiple stacks. I prefer the 15-min tf.
  • #55,853
  • Jan 21, 2021 5:34am Jan 21, 2021 5:34am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I love running EA. So smooth. Especially good for either one big runner or multiple stacks. I prefer the 15-min tf.
.

Thanks for that mate. I'll have a look.
  • #55,854
  • Jan 21, 2021 7:46am Jan 21, 2021 7:46am
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...de-in-1bn-deal

Seems IG is growing in the US ?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #55,855
  • Edited 9:05am Jan 21, 2021 8:35am | Edited 9:05am
Avery, I got bored waiting for a candle to close so I thought I'd count some of Billy's but only ten because I'm not THAT bored...

Day /Range /Hit1RR/ Max Extension in RR/ Max Extension in RR (other side)
1 20 No 0.15 0.05
2 23 No 0.17 0.52
3 15 Yes 1.6 0.66
4 19 Yes 1.94 0.05
5 21 Yes 2.71 0.47
6 19 No 0.68 1.63
7 11 No 0.72 13
8 26 No 0.5 0.34
9 28 Yes 1.1 1.1
10 13 Yes 10.5 n/a

I know you don't believe in risk vs reward but I do. Although I look for positive expectancy foremost.
Taking the range as 1 RR, Max extension is the first break. Max Ex the other side is, well, the other side..! I have only counted 1 break above and one below. Assume these are dead for - 1R if you didn't do something to close it.

So this piddly sample size of 10 gives me a 50/50 chance of breaking +1RR on first break and 30% of making +1RR on second break.

Food for thought?

PS I don't back test anymore because it hurts my brain... and the markets change by the time I've done all that counting..!
PPS See the outliers? That's more my style.. I wonder how often they crop up?

I'm sure Billy has thousands of stats like these. Takes a lot of work.
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  • #55,856
  • Jan 21, 2021 9:04am Jan 21, 2021 9:04am
Quoting turnip15
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...de-in-1bn-deal Seems IG is growing in the US ?
Billy's commissions probably helped with the funding..
  • #55,857
  • Jan 21, 2021 9:06am Jan 21, 2021 9:06am
Great old song
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  • #55,858
  • Jan 21, 2021 9:08am Jan 21, 2021 9:08am
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  • #55,859
  • Jan 21, 2021 9:48am Jan 21, 2021 9:48am
Quoting Fagin
Avery, I got bored waiting for a candle to close so I thought I'd count some of Billy's but only ten because
I'm not THAT bored...
Hello Fagin.

Thanks, not fully understand your stats but that’s ok. I do count stats on the BillyBar but in a different way. I can share my stats for every day of the 2020 if interested, i have some excel sheet for it. I found out the average first break to hit +5 is 50-70%, if the first break fails the second break is likely to hit +5 for 70-80% and if the second break failed the third opposite break is likely to hit +5 for about 95% of times.

The retraces however once triggered in a trade is 13-15 Points on average, so if you do risk to reward here at let’s say 1:1 having the counter or sl sitting at -5 Points your win rate is going down drastically. I also tested different risk to reward values, if you traded every day of 2020 no matter if having used 1:1, 1:2, 1:3 the outcome over 251 trading days is more like negative, and even far less likely to work giving you +5 at the ends of each month.

I guess this is why Billy counters and somehow manages to come out positive of nearly every fail or also compensates this with other setups where he gains additional points to help. Like others here also said, they seem to trade all more than just this one method/setup to help with that.

I managed to fix my last fails with my random lucky trades I then do. I am a bit more over +3% now for January again. I would prefer a more systematically approach however but maybe systematically is just working in theory.

Trade safe. best regards.
  • #55,860
  • Jan 21, 2021 9:59am Jan 21, 2021 9:59am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Hello Fagin. Thanks, not fully understand your stats but that’s ok. I do count stats on the BillyBar but in a different way. I can share my stats for every day of the 2020 if interested, i have some excel sheet for it. I found out the average first break to hit +5 is 50-70%, if the first break fails the second break is likely to hit +5 for 70-80% and if the second break failed the third opposite break is likely to hit +5 for about 95% of times. The retraces however once triggered in a trade is 13-15 Points on average, so if you do risk to...
retraces are another way to take advantage of the break. After the break, let it retrace a number of pips, and then either buy or sell depending on the break of the direction. That way if it loses, you lose less, and if it wins, you win more. Sometimes price moves very quickly in the direction of the break, so you will miss out on those days but so what. On the other days you will make up for it. Billy and others use retrace trades a lot. An example could be 8-10 pips retrace before taking a trade in the direction of the break.
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